Frances Sprei Associate Professor in Sustainable MobilityDepartment of Space, Earth and EnvironmentChalmers

Are the buyers ready for electric cars?

September 13th 2018 - Initiative seminar: Electromobility - Back to the future

Frances Sprei Associate Professor in Sustainable MobilityDepartment of Space, Earth and EnvironmentChalmers

Are the electric cars ready for the buyers?

September 13th 2018 - Initiative seminar: Electromobility - Back to the future

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range

Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range – with adaptation once per month

Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range – with adaptation once per week

Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016

What range do BEV have?

9/13/2018 FRANCES SPREI

Source: Nykvist et al, under review

Least expensivethird

Middle third

Most expensivethird

Share of cars that fulfill all driving

BEVs in Two-Car Households

Jakobsson et al., 2016 ”Are multi-car households better suited for battery electric vehicles – Driving Patterns and economics in Sweden and Germany”. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies

First car

Second car

Fulfill all driving at range120 km:First cars < 10%All Cars ≈ 15%Second cars ≈ 30%

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

On average (20 households):● Long daily driving distances are reduced.● Short daily driving distances are reduced.● Distances congregate at 40-90 km.

How are battery electric vehicles used in 2-car households?

Distritbution of daily driving distances

Large differences between households –interviews help explain why

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

BEV attributes - charging

9/13/2018 FRANCES SPREI

Least expensivethirdMiddle third

Most expensivethird

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BEV attributes – size and acceleration

9/13/2018 FRANCES SPREI

Least expensivethirdMiddle third

Most expensivethird

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When will cost for a 200 mile range come down to average prices?

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Source: Nykvist et al, under review

So are BEV ready for buyers ?

Short answer: pretty close

Long answer: With 300 km range ~ 65 % of cars can cover all their driving85 % with some kind of adaptation once a monthTwo-car households are especially suitable for adoption of BEVRegarding other attributes BEV are comparable with average vehicles300 km range could reach average price of US market slightly after 2020

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Extra slides

9/13/2018

Comparing 4 different data sets (no adaptation and once a month)

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Source: Plötz et al, 2017

Power 50 kW

Range [km] 100 200 300

Time (min) 14.09 22.8 27.0

fastchargingstations/1,000BEV (VRI)

6.8 5.3 3.7

How does range and charging power affect charging need? Germany

Source: Gnann et al, 2018

Based on German driving data, queing model, max 5 min waiting

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Power 50 kW 100 kW

Range [km] 100 200 300 100 200 300

Time (min) 14.09 22.8 27.0 7.0 11.4 13.5

fastchargingstations/1,000BEV (VRI)

6.8 5.3 3.7 2.4 1.8 1.2

How does range and charging power affect charging need? Germany

Based on German driving data, queing model, max 5 min waiting

Source: Gnann et al, 2018

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Power 50 kW 100 kW 150 kW

Range [km] 100 200 300 100 200 300 100 200 300

Time (min) 14.09 22.8 27.0 7.0 11.4 13.5 4.7 7.6 9.0

fastchargingstations/1,000BEV (VRI)

6.8 5.3 3.7 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.7

How does range and charging power affect charging need? Germany

Based on German driving data, queing model, max 5 min waiting

Source: Gnann et al, 2018

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Attributes of BEV – divided by price percentile

Lowest third

Middle third

Highest third

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Battery pack costs

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Long ranged PHEV can achieve similar electricVKT as shorter range BEV

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Source: Plötz et al (2017)

Data source: UC Davis

Share of eVMT in 2+ car housholds in California

Based on 74 households with 2+ cars with a PEVSimilar shares betweenlonger range PHEV (Volt) and Leaf

9/13/2018 Frances Sprei

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5What range do BEV have?Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Large differences between households – interviews help explain whyBEV attributes - chargingBEV attributes – size and accelerationWhen will cost for a 200 mile range come down to average prices?So are BEV ready for buyers ?Slide Number 14Comparing 4 different data sets (no adaptation and once a month)How does range and charging power affect charging need? GermanyHow does range and charging power affect charging need? GermanyHow does range and charging power affect charging need? GermanyAttributes of BEV – divided by price percentileBattery pack costsLong ranged PHEV can achieve similar electric VKT as shorter range BEVShare of eVMT in 2+ car housholds in California