PowerPoint Presentation

Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City

Business Intelligence PredictionsGroup D Members:Jenny BrunnertLamont DavisLucas MateckiJi ZhangObjectiveOur goal is to predict the homicide rate in the St. Louis City area for 2013. We intend to use data sets and statistical techniques as tools to assist in our prediction.Homicide DefinitionThe killing of one human being by anotherJustifiable HomicideAuthorized by law and not punishableDeath sentence or soldier carrying out dutiesExcusable HomicideKiller was to at fault to some extent, though punishment reducedFatality due to a provoked fightCriminal HomicideNot justifiable or excusableMurder or Manslaughter

http://nationalparalegal.edu/public_documents/courseware_asp_files/criminalLaw/homicide/Definition.aspThree categories of Homicide: Justifiable homicide, Excusable homicide, and Criminal homicide. 3Top 10 Most Dangerous CitiesRankCityViolent Crime per 100,000 People1Flint, MI2,3372Detroit, MI2,137 3St. Louis, Mo1,8574Oakland, CA1,6835Memphis, TN1,5846Little Rock, AK1,4907Birmingham, AL1,4838Atlanta, GA1,4339Baltimore, MD1,41710Stockton, CA1,408http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-25-most-dangerous-cities-in-america.html?page=all4Introduction According to the FBI 2011 data results, St. Louis is currently ranked the 3rd dangerous city in America when referring to crime. Violent crimes per 1,000: 18.6Population: 320,45458th largest city in U.S. 79 NeighborhoodsMurder, Robbery and Aggravated Assault ranked highest in nation

http://247wallst.com/2012/06/11/the-most-dangerous-cities-in-america-2/3/ Though, numbers have decrease since the pass years (2010), St. Louis still remains unchanged on the list over the past year. Violent Crimes per 1,000 people has risen from 17.5 to 18.6. Including the citys murder rate to be the 4th highest in the nation, its robbery rate to be the 5th highest in the nation, and its aggravated assault rate to be the 3rd highest in the nation. 58th largest city in U.S. according to The city rank by population as of July 1, 2011, as estimated by the United States Census Bureauhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population79 Neighborhoodshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhoods_of_St._Louishttp://stlouis-mo.gov/government/departments/planning/documents/upload/CitywideNeighborhoodMap_TabloidSzRev.pdf

52010 Compared to 2013

Total Crime Incidents: 34,935Property Crime: 27, 324Violent Crime: 6,205

Total Crime Incidents: 29,947 Property Crime: 22,336Violent Crime: 7,104

http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/st-louis.html#.UT0e_n5QH60

6Homicide in 2013

https://www.crimereports.com/ 7Analysis ApproachCollecting dataFind the factorsPredict the Homicide in 2013Two Ways of AnalysisTrendData Analysis

What factors might impact the rates?PopulationSexRaceAgeUnemploymentEducationGang ActivityGun accessibilityDrug Trade

http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf

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http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

10PopulationFrom 1980 to 200857.7% of homicides occurred in cities with a population of 100,000 or moreIn cities with 1 million or more, the homicide rate decreased from 35.5 homicides per 100,000 residents (1991) to 11.9 per 100,000 residents (2008) in the U.S.http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

11SexFrom 1980 to 200877% of homicide victims are maleFor males, the homicide rate (11.6 per 100,000) is 3 times higher than that of females (3.4 per 100,000)http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

12RaceFrom 1980 to 2008Data shows that African-American has seemingly higher ratesThe victim rate (27.8 per 100,000) The homicide rate (19.6 per 100,000)http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf13AgeFrom 1980 to 200853.2% of murder victims and 65.5% of offenders were between age 18-34The homicide rate for ages 18 24 reaches 17.1 victims per every 100,000, while the rate per every 100,000 offenders peaks at 29.3

14UnemploymentA study of homicide in eight major cities in the United States shows that when employment declined, homicide rates increased, and when employment increased homicide rates dropped.

http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf15EducationConnected with murder, assault, and motor vehicle theft.Research shows that education reduces crime. By raising earnings, education raises the opportunity cost of crime and the cost of time spent in prison. http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~moretti/lm46.pdf16Unpredictable FactorsGang Activity (from 1993 through 2003)Gangs are often responsible for the firearms violent incidents, especially those incidents involving youths.Gun accessibility (2009)According to FBI report, firearms were used in 67.1% of the homicides. Research shows that firearm availability is positively associated with homicide rates.Drug TradeDrug markets are often associated with violent offenses, particularly homicides. The competition for customers and drug markets can cause homicide.

http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdfSome of the factors are basically related to the other factors, such as sex and age. Its hard to get the actual information about gang activity, Gun accessibility, and drug trade.Gang Activity From 1993 through 2003, gang members perpetrated approximately 373,000 of the 6.6 million violent victimizations that occurred each year. Gangs are often responsible for violent incidents involving the use of firearms, especially those incidents involving youths.Gun accessibility In 2009, firearms were used in 67.1% of the homicides analyzed by the FBI. Research findings indicate firearm availability is positively associated with homicide rates.Drug Trade Drug markets are often associated with violent offenses, particularly homicides. Those involved in the drug trade are more likely to resort to violence due to competition for customers and drug markets and as a way to solve disputes.

17Prediction from data

RankNeighborhoodYear 20131Baden92JeffVanderLou9 3College Hill5 4Dutchtown5 5Gravois Park56Well/Goodfellow57Carondelet4 8Hamilton Heights49North Point4 10Penrose4Total Murder #: 118Prediction from dataA combination of black people, male rate, and high school graduation rate has the smallest standard error.

Prediction from data

Total Murder #: 82Y= 0.000856759Xa+3.278571742Xb-3.591220139XcPrediction from research Downward trend in crime from 2010 Looking at crime rate statistics, higher reports of homicides will fall in downtown cities of St. LouisBadenWalnut Park EastWhile several factors play a significant role to affect the numbers of homicides Budget cuts create lower number of police force and security

ConclusionAny Questions?Sourceshttp://nationalparalegal.edu/public_documents/courseware_asp_files/criminalLaw/homicide/Definition.asphttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-25-most-dangerous-cities-in-america.html?page=allhttp://247wallst.com/2012/06/11/the-most-dangerous-cities-in-america-2/3/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_populationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhoods_of_St._Louishttp://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/st-louis.html#.UT0e_n5QH60

23http://maps.stlouisco.com/police/index.htmlhttp://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdfhttp://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdfhttp://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf