Predicting 2014 Homicides in St . Louis City
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Predicting 2014 Homicides in St. Louis City Milos Bucalo Haishan Zhao Samir Muratovic
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Predicting 2014 Homicides in St . Louis City. Milos Bucalo Haishan Zhao Samir Muratovic. Agenda. Goal Overall Approach Data Collection Data Organization Prediction. Goal. To accurately predict the number and location of homicides that will occur in the city of St. Louis in 2014. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Predicting 2014 Homicides in St . Louis City
Predicting 2014Homicides in St. Louis CityMilos Bucalo Haishan ZhaoSamir Muratovic
Agenda• Goal• Overall Approach• Data Collection• Data Organization• Prediction
Goal• To accurately predict the number and location of
homicides that will occur in the city of St. Louis in 2014.
• To enable the city of St. Louis to effectively allocate resources to prevent those crimes.
St. Louis City• Population: 319,294• Divided into 79 neighborhoods• 9 Districts• 3 Patrols
• Ranked 3rd most dangerous city in 2012 • 1,777 violent crimes per 100,000 people
Approach• Data Collection• Initially wanted to collect homicide data by counties• Decided to collect homicide data by districts• Patrols (North, Central, South)
• Collected 6 years of homicide data from 2008-2013• Collected demographic and socioeconomic data from
2010 U.S. Census by districts
• Data Organization• Used Excel to organize and make meaning of data• Summed up homicides by Patrols
Approach• Calculations• Used Excel to calculate several key metrics• Summed up homicides by Patrols• Average number of homicides per year by Patrols• Homicide rate per 1000 inhabitants• Homicide trend
• Prediction• Linear regression using homicide data from 2008-2013
Collecting Data
Saint Louis Metropolitan Police Department
Combine CSV files
Collecting Data - Homicides
Data from January 2008 – January 2014
Patrols
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
North
94 73 69 58 59 59 5
Central
46 43 47 32 34 35 7
South
25 27 25 31 31 26 2
Total 165 143 141 121 124 120 14
417
244
167
Figure 1
Table 1
NC
S
Collecting Data - Population
U.S. Census Bureau97,693
60,895
157,540
Figure 2Table 2
NC
S
Years
Population
2008
356,730
2009
356,587
2010
319,293
2011
318,563
2012
318,172
2013
316,128
Organizing Data
Average Number of Homicide per Year by Patrols
59.57
34.86
23.86
Figure 3
Table 3
NC
S
Patrol
Total Homicide
North 417
Central
244
South
167
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐻𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙7 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠(2008−20014)
Formula 1
Organizing Data
Homicide Rate per 1000 inhabitants
4.26
4.00
1.06
Figure 4
Table 4
NC
S
Patrol Total Homicide
Population per Patrol
North 417 97,693
Central
244 60,895
South 167 157,540
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐻𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑎𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙
=𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑤𝑒𝑟 ∗1000
Formula 2
Organizing Data
Homicide Trend
Patrols 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Homicide
165 143 141 121 124 120
-13 -1.39 -14.1 2.47-3.22
Table 5
Formula 3
Organizing Data
Top 4 dangerous streets by Patrols
North Patrol 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total
Avg. # per year
Dr Martin Luther King Dr
2 1 2 1 3 2 11 1.83
N Kingshighway Blvd
2 2 1 1 2 2 10 1.66
Page Blvd 4 3 1 1 1 1 11 1.83
Riverview Blvd 3 1 0 4 1 1 10 1.66
Total 11 7 4 7 7 6 42 6.98Table 6
Organizing Data
Top 4 dangerous streets by Patrols
Central Patrol 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total
Avg. # per year
Hebert St 1 1 4 1 0 0 7 1.16
N 20th St 3 3 0 1 1 0 8 1.33
N Grand Blvd 2 1 0 2 2 1 8 1.33
Washington Ave 2 0 2 0 1 1 6 1.0
Total 8 5 6 4 4 2 29 4.82
Table 7
Organizing Data
Top 4 dangerous streets by Patrols
South Patrol 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total
Avg. # per year
Minnesota Ave 4 2 0 0 2 0 8 1.33
Louisiana Ave 3 0 2 0 0 2 7 1.16
Pennsylvania Ave
0 0 2 1 4 0 7 1.16
California Ave 0 2 0 3 1 0 6 1.0
Total 7 4 4 4 7 2 28 4.65
Table 8
Prediction
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
f(x) = − 8.62857142857143 x + 17483.4095238095R² = 0.846414650745554
PredictionYea
rHomicid
es
2008
165
2009
143
2010
141
2011
121
2012
124
2013
120
2014
114
Table 9
Patrols
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
North
94 73 69 58 59 59 57
Central
46 43 47 32 34 35 33
South
25 27 25 31 31 26 24
Total 165 143 141 121 124 120 114
15.15% 18.88% 17.73% 25.62% 25.00% 21.67%20.67
%
27.88% 30.07% 33.33% 26.45% 27.42% 29.17%29.05
%
56.97% 51.05% 48.94% 47.93% 47.58% 49.17%50.27
%Table 10
Prediction
• 2014 homicides victims average age 31• Shooting related victims average age 29.7• Main reasons: • Unknown• Gang• Suicide• Relative conflict
References
Þ www.slmpd.orgÞ www.census.govÞ www.njsp.org/info/ucr2000/pdf/calc_ucr2000.pdfÞ www.stltoday.com/st-louis-area-murder-map/html_3bf7a0a8-0440
-5ada-aacf-11e4314a9956.html
