Vol 27 No 1 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/24150487

Journal for the physical and development sciences

Tydskrif vir die fisiese en ontwikkelingswetenskappe

ActA

Structilia

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Acta Structilia2020:27(1)Published by the University of the Free StateBloemfontein9300

ISSN 1023-0564e-ISSN 2415-0487DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/24150487/as27i12020 CopyrightUniversity of the Free StateBloemfontein

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Acta Structilia2020:27(1)

Tydskrif vir die fisiese en ontwikkelingswetenskappe

Acta Structilia is ’n Suid-Afrikaanse geakkrediteerde tydskrif, wat publikasie geleenthede bied vir onafhanklik gerefereerde artikels deur plaaslike en buitelandse navorsers op die terreine van die fisiese en ontwikkelingswetenskappe. Elke gekeurde artikel word as sodanig aangedui. Die redaksie oorweeg Afrikaanse of Engelse artikels oor onderwerpe binne studie velde soos: argitektuur, stads- en streekbeplanning, bourekenkunde, konstruksie- en projekbestuur, bou-ekonomie, ingenieurswese, die eiendomsbedryf en die ontwikkelingsveld rondom gemeenskapsbouprojekte. Acta Structilia verskyn twee keer per jaar onder die vaandel van die Universiteit van die Vrystaat. Die tydskrif word gelewer aan die betrokke navorsingsinstansies, Suider-Afrikaanse universiteite met bogemelde navorsings-departemente, Suid-Afrikaanse navorsingsbiblioteke, geselekteerde buitelandse instansies en intekenaars. Menings en kritiek in die tydskrif is dié van die outeur(s). Publikasie daarvan is nie ’n aanvaarding dat die Redaksie of die Universiteit van die Vrystaat verantwoordelikheid daarvoor aanvaar nie.

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Journal for the physical and development sciences

Acta Structilia is a South African accredited journal for independently adjudicated research articles on any topic in the field of the physical and development sciences. Each peer refereed article is indicated as such in the journal. The editorial staff considers articles in English and Afrikaans, written from any responsible point of view on subjects in any applicable field of scholarship, i.e. architecture, urban and regional planning, quantity surveying, construction management and project management, building economy, engineering and property or community development. Acta Structilia is published biannually by the University of the Free State. The journal is forwarded to all relevant research units and universities, Southern African research libraries, selected research institutions and libraries abroad, and to subscribers. Views and opinions expressed in this journal are those of the author(s). Publication thereof does not indicate that the Editorial Staff or the University of the Free State accept responsibility for it.

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Editorial Staff • Redaksie

Editor-in-Chief • Redakteur Prof. K Kajimo-Shakantu (Department of QuantitySurveying and Construction Management, University of the Free State, South Africa)

Deputy Editors • Adjunkredakteur Prof. MM Campbell (Department of Town and Regional Planning, University of the Free State, South Africa)

Prof. JA Noble (Department of Architecture, University of the Free State, South Africa)

Assistant Editor • Assistentredakteur Mrs AE Beukes (Department of Quantity Surveying and Construction Management, University of the Free State, South Africa)

Editorial board • Redaksionele raad

Dr K Agyekum (Department of Building Technology, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana)Mr T Ayalew (Department of Construction Management, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia)Prof. G Crafford (Department of Quantity Surveying, Nelson Mandela University, South Africa)Dr G di Castri (Italian Institute of Chartered Engineers, Milan, Italy) Dr A Elkhalifia (Department of Construction Management and Economics, University of Khartoum, Sudan)Dr JA Fapohunda (Department of Construction Management and Quantity Surveying, Cape Peninsula University of Technology, South Africa)Prof. TC Haupt (Faculty of Engineering, Mangosuthu University of Technology, South Africa)Mrs E Hefer (Department of Construction Management and Quantity Surveying, Durban University of Technology, South Africa)Dr R Jimoh (Department of Building, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria)Mr C Kabuka (Director of Legal, Compliance and Regulatory, IHS Zambia Limited, Zambia)Mr A Kerin (President, Slovenian Project Management Association, Slovenia)Prof. K London (Property Construction & Project Management, RMIT University, Australia)Emer Prof. G McLachlan (Architect, Port Elizabeth, South Africa) Prof. K Michell (Department of Construction Economics and Management, University of Cape Town, South Africa)Mr I Moss (Department of Construction Management and Quantity Surveying, Walter Sisulu University of Technology, South Africa)Dr S Mukiibi (Department of Architecture and planning, Makerere University, Uganda)Mr C Musonda (Chairman Sherwood Greene Properties, Zambia)Prof. G Ofori (School of the Built Environment and Architecture, London South Bank University, London, United Kingdom)Mr MA Oladapo (Chief Executive, Murty International Limited, Nigeria)Dr S Ramabodu (QS-online Quantity Surveyors, Bloemfontein, South Africa)Dr I Saidu (Department of Quantity Surveying, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria)Prof. JJ Smallwood (Department of Construction Management, Nelson Mandela University, South Africa)Dr P Smith (Program Director of Construction project Management in the School of Building at University of Technology Sydney, Australia)Prof. J Tookey (Department of the Built Environment, AUT University, New Zealand)Mr K Trusler (EduTech Director, The Association of South African Quantity Surveyors, South Africa)Mr B van den Heever (Bert van den Heever Quantity Surveyors and Project Managers, South Africa)Prof. C Vosloo (Department of Architecture, University of Johannesburg, South Africa)Prof. BG Zulch (Department of Construction Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa)

Acta Structilia Volume 27 Jaargang

Number 1 Nommer June 2020 Junie

Contents • Inhoud

Research articles • Navorsingsartikels

Utilisation of forecasting technology for Isah Yahaya 1 improving construction logistics in Nigeria Winston Shakantu Saidu Ibrahim

The impact of the Integrated Residential Nontokozo Mnisi 29 Development Programme on surrounding Aly Karam property values: Case Study of Fleurhof, Johannesburg

Risk assessment for hazard exposure and Oluwasinaayomi Faith Kasim 59 its consequences on housing construction Adekunle Moruf Alabi sites in Lagos, Nigeria Sunday Wusu

Review articles • Oorsigartikels

Isivivane, Freedom Park: A critical analysis of Graham Young 85 the relationship between commemoration, Piet Vosloo meaning and landscape design in post-apartheid South Africa

An assessment of the causes of schedule Fhumulani Tshidavhu 119 and cost overruns in South African Nthatisi Khatleli megaprojects: A case of the critical energy sector projects of Medupi and Kusile

Early sustainable architecture in hanging Christo Vosloo 144 skyscrapers – A comparison of two financial office buildings

Book review • Boek resensie

Architectures of informality Sayed Ahmed 178

Information for authors · Inligting aan outeurs 183

The South African Council for the Quantity Surveying Profession endorsesActa Structilia

The South African Council for the Quantity Surveying Profession (SACQSP) has simplified the submission and assessment of Continuining Professional Development (CPD) requirements of registered persons. CPD submission now requires disclosure of the number of hours invested meaningfully in activities in two main categories. Category 1 activities are those arranged or presented by or to ‘external’ organisatins such as participation in conferences, congresses, workshops or seminars, presentation of lectures, external examination for academic programmes, publication of articles in journals or magazines, other similar activities. Category 2 activities are less formal ‘internal’ activities such as in-house training or seminars, small group discussions, self-study of journals, magazines, articles on web pages, etc.

To assist registered persons with access to journal articles related to quantity surveying and, more generally, built environment issues, the SACQSP at its meeting in March 2007 adopted a recommendation to endorse the journal, Acta Structilia, which publishes quality, peer-reviewed articles and is accredited by the Department of Education.

Council encourages registered persons to peruse Acta Structilia and similar peer-reviewed journals as one of the alternative options to accumulate CPD credits in Category 2 activities. For a limited period, Council will encourage the circulation of Acta Structilia to registered persons.

Professor RN NkadoPresident

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) supports Acta Structilia

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) supports the aims and objectives of Acta Structilia and welcomes the efforts being made to improve our knowledge and understanding of the built environment, particularly in an African context.

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How to cite: Isah, Y., Shakantu, W. & Ibrahim, S. 2020. Utilisation of forecasting technology for improving construction

logistics in Nigeria. Acta Structilia, 27(1), pp. 1-28.

© Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Published by the UFShttp://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as

Research articles • Navorsingsartikels

Yahaya Isah

Mr Yahaya Isah, PhD student, Department of Construction Management, PO Box 77000, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, 6031, South Africa. Phone: (+234) 8039285865, email: <isahyahaya50@gmail.com> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4602-3630

Winston Shakantu

Prof. Winston Shakantu, Department of Construction Management, PO Box 77000, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, 6031, South Africa. Phone: (+27) 785147492, email: <winston.shakantu@mandela.ac.za> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4334-5004

Saidu Ibrahim

Dr Saidu Ibrahim, Senior Lecturer, Department of Quantity Surveying, Federal University of Technology, PMB 65, Minna, Niger State, Nigeria, Phone: (+234) 8037796321, email: <saidu.ibr@futminna.edu.ng>

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/24150487/as27i1.1

ISSN: 1023-0564

e-ISSN: 2415-0487

Acta Structilia 2020 27(1): 1-28

UtIlISatIon of forecaStIng tecHnologY for ImprovIng conStrUctIon logIStIcS In nIgerIaPeer reviewed and revised March 2020Published June 2020

*The authors declared no conflict of interest for the article or title

abStractThe need to investigate new technology for forecasting purposes in construction logistics is due to the fact that the forecasting ability (modern technology utilisation) of the Nigerian construction sector, in terms of logistics management, is relatively low when compared to manufacturing and retailing industries. This is affecting the performance of the construction sector. Moreover, the current logistics technologies used for forecasting operations in the Nigerian construction industry are relatively inefficient and insufficiently investigated to inspire new logistics technologies for the construction industry. Hence, this article investigated how forecasting logistics technologies could be utilised in manufacturing and retailing industries, in order to improve the forecasting processes of construction logistics. Lagos State and Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria, formed the selected geographical scope of the study, from which five manufacturing; five retailing companies, and five construction projects were purposely selected. A mixed methods research strategy were used. The research instruments included an observation guide (quantitative) and semi-structured interviews (qualitative). The collected quantitative data were analysed, using descriptive analytical tools: frequencies and percentiles. The qualitative

Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

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data was analysed, using the thematic method. The results revealed that all the observed manufacturing industries (100%) adopted the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) technology for forecasting purposes in the following areas: material, demand, product, and production forecast. Of the observed companies in the manufacturing and retailing industries, 80% and 40%, respectively, adopted the Material Requirement Planning (MRP) technology for forecasting purposes. Only 20% (one project) of the observed construction projects adopted the MRP technology for forecasting in the following: 5% for demand forecast (demand control); 6.7% for material forecast (stock control), and 20% for product forecast (product output). It was also revealed that utilisation of the forecasting technology in construction could have the following benefits: proper resource planning; improved production scheduling; reduction in inventory; effective treatment of scheduling problems, and efficiency of the supply-chain system. Results showed that effective utilisation of forecasting technology in the logistics system of the construction industry could lead to full efficiency gains in forecasting logistics of the construction industry. It is recommended that the Nigerian construction industry should leverage on this, in order to create the best ways of handling the forecasting technology to improve the forecasting logistics systems of the construction process.Keywords: Construction, DM, ERP, IRES, MRP, forecasting, logistics, technology

abStrakDie behoefte om nuwe tegnologie vir voorspellingsdoeleindes in konstruksielogistiek te ondersoek, is te wyte aan die feit dat die voorspellingsvermoë (moderne tegnologie-gebruik) van die Nigeriese konstruksiesektor, wat logistieke bestuur betref, relatief laag is in vergelyking met die vervaardigings- en kleinhandelbedrywe. Dit beïnvloed die prestasie van die konstruksiesektor. Boonop is die huidige logistieke tegnologieë wat gebruik word vir voorspellingsbedrywighede in die Nigeriese konstruksiebedryf relatief ondoeltreffend en word onvoldoende ondersoek om nuwe logistieke tegnologieë vir die konstruksiebedryf te inspireer. Daarom het hierdie artikel ondersoek hoe die voorspelling van logistieke tegnologieë in die vervaardigings- en kleinhandelbedrywe gebruik kan word om die voorspellingsprosesse van konstruksielogistiek te verbeter. Lagos-staat en Abuja, die Federale hoofstadgebied van Nigeria, vorm die geselekteerde geografiese omvang van die studie, waaruit vyf vervaardiging; vyf kleinhandelondernemings, en vyf bouprojekte is doelbewus gekies. ‘n Gemengde navorsingsmetode is gevolg. Die navorsingsinstrumente het ‘n waarnemingsgids (kwantitatiewe) en semi-gestruktureerde onderhoude (kwalitatief) bevat. Die versamelde kwantitatiewe data is geanaliseer met behulp van beskrywende analitiese instrumente: frekwensies en persentiele. Die kwalitatiewe data is met behulp van die tematiese metode ontleed. Die resultate het aan die lig gebring dat al die waargenome vervaardigingsbedrywe (100%) die Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) -tegnologie gebruik het vir voorspellingsdoeleindes in die volgende gebiede: materiaal, vraag, produk en produksieskatting. Van die waargenome ondernemings in die vervaardigings- en kleinhandelbedrywe het onderskeidelik 80% en 40% die Materiaalvereistesbeplanningstegnologie (MRP) vir voorspellingsdoeleindes aangewend. Slegs 20% (een projek) van die waargenome bouprojekte het die MRP-tegnologie vir voorspelling in die volgende gebruik: 5% vir vraagvoorspelling (vraagbeheer); 6,7% vir wesenlike voorspelling (voorraadbeheer) en 20% vir produksieskatting (produkuitset). Dit is ook aan die lig gebring dat die gebruik van die voorspellingstegnologie in die konstruksie die volgende voordele kan inhou: behoorlike hulpbronbeplanning; verbeterde produksieskedulering; vermindering in voorraad; effektiewe behandeling van skeduleringsprobleme en die doeltreffendheid van die voorsieningskettingstelsel. Die bevindinge toon dat die effektiewe gebruik van voorspellingstegnologie in die logistieke stelsel van die konstruksiebedryf tot volle effektiwiteitswinste in die voorspellingslogistiek van die konstruksiebedryf kan lei. Dit word aanbeveel dat die Nigeriese konstruksiebedryf

Isah, Shakantu & Ibrahim • Utilisation of forecasting technology

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gebruik maak hiervan om die beste maniere te kry om die voorspellingstegnologie te hanteer om die voorspellingslogistieke stelsels tydens die konstruksieproses te verbeter.Sleutelwoorde: DM, ERP, IRES, MRP, konstruksie, logistiek, tegnologie, voorspelling

1. IntrodUctIonThe construction industry is often criticised for delivering projects behind schedules and over budgets, due to its over-reliance on manual modes of operations (Sardroud & Limbachiya, 2010: 1; Sullivan, Barthorpe & Robbins, 2010: 19; Gadde & Dubois, 2010: 254; Tseng, Wu & Nguyen, 2011: 267). According to Navon (2005: 478), this is attributed to the reluctancy of the industry in realising the benefits of the current logistics technology in project performance control. The logistics technology developed to support the management of the Nigerian construction industry in terms of forecasting is outdated, ineffectual, and often overlooked, due to its weak contributions to project performance (Langeley, Coyle, Gibson, Novack & Bardi, 2009: 32).

Logistics management in the manufacturing and retailing industries and its contribution to construction productivity in the use of advanced technologies have not been adequately investigated (Almohsen & Ruwanpura, 2011: 1). Besides, the manufacturing and retailing industries are hardly investigated to inspire new technologies and improved working practice and logistics in the construction industry (Sullivan et al., 2010: 19). Gadde and Dubois (2010: 254) noted that huge efforts must be made in the area of forecasting logistics technology. Although significant attempts have been made in developing technologies, according to Ibrahim and Moselhi (2016: 14), the performance of these systems is still not robust enough for most of the forecasting logistics processes. Hence, choosing an appropriate forecasting technology for various logistics processes is crucial to any construction activity, in order to gain advantage in competitive markets (Bhandari, 2014: 24).

Research evidence has shown that previous studies on construction logistics from different parts of Nigeria have focused on transportation, effectiveness or efficiency in logistics supply chain, and so forth. However, hardly any research focuses on logistics technology, especially the use of forecasting technology, to improve construction logistics processes. Therefore, a wide gap has been identified in the Nigerian construction logistics processes (Samuel & Ondiek, 2014: 9; Fatnani & Malik, 2015: 3253; Braun, Tuttas, Borrmann & Stilla, 2015: 1). However, the technological aspect of construction logistics, especially forecasting, is overlooked, and little is understood in the Nigerian construction industry. It is, therefore, important to examine forecasting-related tasks in the manufacturing, retailing and construction industries; the percentage level of usage of forecasting logistics technologies in the execution of these tasks, and the accruable benefits to construction from the utilisation of the forecasting technology

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in the industries. The article assesses the level of utilisation of forecasting technology in the manufacturing and retailing industries, in order to improve the forecasting process of the Nigerian construction logistics.

2. lIteratUre revIeWIn order to understand how to utilise forecasting technology in construction logistics, it is important to introduce the present theory on forecasting and logistics included in this article. The current theory focuses on construction logistics, construction forecasting logistics technology, and forecasting logistics tools used in construction.

2.1 construction logisticsThe term ‘logistics’ includes activities related to the physical movement of goods, and managing relationships with suppliers and customers (Bhandari, 2014: 19). The word ‘logistics’ in the construction industry involves a strategic and cost-effective storage, handling, transportation and distribution of resources that enable the primary construction business activity to be accomplished (Sullivan et al., 2010: 4). Therefore, logistics has become part and parcel of every construction business, as no firm or project can succeed without its support (Neeraja, Mehta & Chandani, 2014: 666).

Logistics is a critical component of every construction organisation that requires serious managerial considerations, since it ties up much of the industry’s capital (Samuel & Ondiek, 2014: 9). Traditionally, insufficient attention has been paid to construction logistics, and this is obvious in the areas of wasteful procedures, poor productivity performance and inefficiencies (Sullivan et al., 2011: 4; Sobotka, Czarnigowska, & Stefaniak, 2005: 203). Hence, logistics management is required at all stages of construction processes, in order to achieve the goals of a construction project (Said & El-rayes, 2014: 110). In addition, Said and El-rayes (2014: 110) believe that better construction logistics planning would require the coordination of supply and site activities by integrating their decisions and recognising existing interdependencies, in order to minimise the total materials management cost. The advantage of coordinated construction logistics is not only to increase productivity, but also to facilitate collaboration, learning and innovation between inter-organisational actors and lower the environmental impact (Bengtsson, 2019: 305).

Thus, completing a construction project within budget and in a timely manner with their numerous constraints requires skillful integration of logistics (Almohsen & Ruwanpura, 2011: 26) and this can influence customer service levels as well as the economic and environmental performance of supply chains (Ying, Tookey & Roberti, 2014: 262).

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2.2 construction forecasting logistics technology The increasing level of competitiveness in the global construction market has led many construction firms to focus on the application of Information Technology (IT) as a way to improve the integrated process of the construction logistics management (Irizarry, Karan & Jalaei, 2013: 241). In a development by Firat, Woon and Madnick (2008: 1), it was opined that any individual, organisation or nation that used forecasting technology makes proper future decisions. Therefore, high-tech industries face challenges, because their success depends on their capability to grab relatively short-lived opportunities and reduce risks, in order to provide timely technology that will forecast appropriately and make the industry grow (Qin & Nembhard, 2012: 201). New technologies have to be developed in the logistics processes of the construction industry, in order to manage inefficiencies and lower the total production cost (Mohammed & Ali, 2016: 21).

The various logistics technologies for overcoming human errors in the areas of forecasting, tracking and better management of materials are lacking in the construction industry (Fatnani & Malik, 2015: 3253). Moreover, forecasting of resources on construction sites has been a challenging task to construction practitioners. Forecasting technologies are thus suggested in overcoming this challenge (Nasr, Shehab & Vlad, 2013: 1). Forecasting technology is a process of using technology to estimate some future needs that include the needs in quantity size, quality, time and location required, in order to meet the demand for goods or services (Rimawan, Saroso & Rohmah, 2018: 570). Therefore, the forecasting technology should facilitate forward planning and the ability to forecast new projects accurately. This could help construction clients formulate timely and effective corporate strategies (Wong & Ng, 2010: 1265).

In Nigeria, the forecasting of the vast majority of construction sites is mostly done manually. This process is laborious, unreliable, costly and prone to error. In large and complex construction projects, automation of forecasting is required, in order to improve accuracy and reduce the manual efforts (Braun et al., 2015: 1). According to Park, Cho and Kim (2016: 1), problems with the manual process may include time-wasting and inefficient communication among project stakeholders. Bhandari (2014: 24) attributed most of these problems to lack of awareness, fear of innovation and little interest in exploring the benefits of an improved and increased uptake of technology in the forecasting logistics system of the construction industry.

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2.3 forecasting logistics tools

2.3.1 enterprise resource planning (erp) technology The term ‘ERP’ originated from the industry for integrated, multimodules application software packages that aimed to serve and enhance multiple business functions through future forecast (Soliman & Karia, 2015: 265). Therefore, the ERP system is an information system that has integrated broad business task, which is responsible for transaction processing in a real-time environment (Hawking & Sellitto, 2010: 1). This information system is designed to manage all the processes of an organisation to allow and facilitate decision-making from a global perspective of the organisation to suit their processes and characteristics (Ramadhan & Ahmed 2019: 172)

Soliman and Karia (2015: 268) postulate that ERP helps organisations meet the challenges of globalisation with a comprehensive, integrated application suite that comprises next-generation analytics, human capital management, financials, operations, and corporate services. However, many organisations found that the implementation of the ERP system makes it easy for organisations to manage different forecasting tasks such as demand, sales, material, production, and product forecast (Althonayan, 2013: 20).

Althonayan’s (2013: 20) review revealed that some important attributes of ERP systems for forecast and their ability to improve organisational effectiveness and efficacy include implementing best business practice, in order to enhance productivity; reduce errors through sharing of data and practice in the enterprise; facilitate rapid and better decision-making that will lead to cost reduction in real time; improve efficiency and effectiveness; improve client receptiveness; increase performance control and data visibility; increase innovative incorporation of business management and IT concepts, and improve automation of business processes in organisations.

The successful implementation of the technology for forecasting can lead to reduced product development cycle, lower inventories, improved customer service and enhanced coordination of global operations (Beheshti & Beheshti, 2010: 446). Bayraktar et al. (2009: 22) concluded that the Master Production Schedule (MPS) module in ERP improved demand forecasting for the effective planning of all resources of a manufacturing company. Therefore, as a task for demand forecasting, the ERP technology forecasts stock requirement, purchasing and predicts customer buying habits to optimise the inventory level and meet customer demand (GBS, 2013: 1).

2.3.2 material requirement planning (mrp) technology The MRP technology is a production planning and control system used to forecast and coordinate order fulfilment, by synchronising the availability of

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materials and resources to customer demand, which could result in better resource planning and reduced inventory level, through releasing purchase and/or work orders (Bayraktar et al., 2009: 136). The technology provides a relatively fast, real and effective treatment of scheduling problems, diminishing cost production of orders, due to minimum inventory mitigation, time accuracy of materials and parts reception (Imetieg & Lutovac, 2015: 58). Information about competitive products and customers’ reactions are forecast with the help of MRP technology (Malthouse, Haenlein, Skiera, Wege & Zhang, 2013: 270).

This technology provides good information necessary for effective decision-making (Madapusi & Souza, 2012: 24). A small saving in material cost through efficient and effective use of MRP technology for the management of materials can result in a large saving in the total project cost (Deepa & Eldhose, 2018: 32). Shi, Asce and Halpin (2003: 214) further discovered that the current ERP technology is primarily developed for manufacturing. They put forward the ERP system for construction, by addressing the nature and business culture of the industry. The successes recorded by the manufacturing and retailing industries in advanced countries led to the trial of the ERP system in the construction industry (Acikalin, Kuruoglu, Isikdag & Underwood, 2009: 245).

2.3.3 Inventory replenishment expert System (IreS) technology The IRES technology is based on a periodic review inventory control and time series forecasting techniques, which propose the most effective replenishment strategy for each supply classed derived from an ABC-XYZ Analysis (Errasti, Chackelson & Poler, 2010: 129). For a company to achieve a balance between efficiency and responsiveness, there is a need for IRES, which is less expensive accurate information, timely, reliable and consistent (Samuel & Ondiek, 2014: 10). Errasti et al. (2010: 135) added that IRES is a useful tax for demand forecast, sales forecast, production forecast, minimizing inventory level, and increasing service quality.

2.3.4 data mining (dm) technology DM technology is a tool used for forecasting customers’ task, by analysing customers’ performance in the past (demand, sales, material, production, and product forecast) (Xie, 2009: 19). Chiang, Lin and Chen (2011: 220) found that DM technology is developed to extract useful information from the bulk of data, and discover which products commonly appear in customer orders. Simultaneously, the information of product association can be used to generate storage assignment rules for improving efficiency in the industry. DM is the method of analysing data from different outlooks and summarising

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it into useful information, by providing data access to business analysts and information technology professionals (Dokania & Kaur, 2018: 202).

DM technology can help identify customer behaviour; reveal customer shopping patterns and trends; improve the quality of customer service; achieve better customer retention and satisfaction; enhance goods consumption ratios; design more effective goods transportation and distribution policies, as well as reduce the cost of business (Paidi, 2012: 4660). Research conducted by Ramageri and Desai (2013: 47) shows that DM technology performed the task of demand forecasting, sales forecasting, production forecasting, competitors forecasting and extraction of hidden predictive information from very large databases, with great potential to help organisations predict future trends and behaviours.

2.3.5 manufacturing and retailing industries’ experiences of forecasting logistics technology

The manufacturing and retailing industries have recorded tremendous achievement in the development and usage of forecasting technology in demand, sales, material, production, and product forecast (Althonayan, 2013: 20). The technology has been able to forecast customers, products or geography, using past data trends, which can be extended to the future, from the transaction that has been captured. Althonayan (2013: 20) revealed that some important attributes of forecasting technology systems in manufacturing industries are their ability to improve organisational effectiveness and efficacy, including productivity enhancement; reduce errors through sharing of data and practice; increase performance control and data visibility, and improve automation of business processes in organisations.

3. reSearcH metHodologY

3.1 research designThis study uses a mixed methods approach where both quantitative and qualitative data are collected in parallel, analysed separately, and then merged (Creswell & Plano-Clark, 2018: 8; Grbich, 2013: 27). In this study, the quantitative semi-structured questionnaire survey was investigated by observations of the task performance of forecasting-related technology (ERP, MRP, IRES, and DM) from the manufacturing, retailing and construction sectors. The qualitative interviews explored the benefits of implementing forecasting technologies in the construction sector. The qualitative method allows in-depth understanding, discovery, and clarification of the situation. It provides the researcher with a unique avenue to probe responses or observations (Guest, Namey & Mitchell, 2013: 21). The reason for collecting

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both quantitative and qualitative data is to elaborate on specific findings from the breakdown of the interview transcripts, and to cross-check the data against the questionnaire data set such as similarities in the use of forecasting-related technology.

3.2 population, sampling methods and response rateThe geographical study areas for this study included the manufacturing, retailing and construction sectors in Lagos State and Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of Nigeria. These geographical study areas were selected, because they both have many manufacturing and retailing companies and many construction projects. Moreover, these two cities are among the metropolitan cities in Nigeria with the highest population of professionals within the built environment with many ongoing construction projects.

For the quantitative semi-structured questionnaire survey, purposive sampling was used to select a sample of 15 companies (including five manufacturing, five retailing and five construction companies) with projects of 2.8 billion Naira and above, as at 28 August 2017. Purposive sampling allows for the selection of individuals or organisations, based on their experiences, to yield adequate information about the topic under investigation (Leedy & Ormrod, 2014: 154). For this study, companies with projects to the capital base/value of 2.8 billion Naira and above are deemed mature enough and presumed to have advanced technologies such as ERP, MRP, IRES, and DM (Soliman & Karia, 2015: 265). According to Leedy and Ormrod (2014: 67), the typical qualitative research sample size for observations ranges between five and 25 participants. For qualitative data collection, purposive sampling was used to sample 15 participants (workers each from the different sectors visited who were stationed to work on the technology) who simultaneously participated in the interviews. Purposive sampling allows the researcher to choose participants based on their characteristics, pre-knowledge and capability of providing adequate knowledge deemed necessary for a study (Bless, Higson-Smith & Sithole, 2013: 172).

3.3 data collectionAn observation guide and semi-structured interviews were used to observe only the forecasting technology utilised in five ERP technology from manufacturing companies; seven MRP technology, including four MRP technology from manufacturing companies; two MRP technology from retailing companies, and one from construction projects. Six IRES technology were observed, including two IRES technology from manufacturing companies and four from retailing. Only two DM technologies were observed from manufacturing companies. The oberservation guide included seven main forecasting tasks for the manufacturing and retailing companies,

Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

10

namely demand, sales, material, production, product, competitors, and advertisement as well as five main tasks for construction companies, namely demand, stock, production, procurement, and procurement process.

The observations were carried out with the aid of the workers in the sectors (manufacturing, retailing, and construction) who were stationed to work on the technologies. The observations were done by taking the researcher around the forecasting technologies available. Questions were asked on the task performed by the technology in the industry and the related tasks and subtasks that the same technology could perform in the construction industry. The observations were only based on the forecasting logistics technologies available (see Tables 1 to 4).

The respondents of the semi-structured interviews were one worker each from the different sectors visited who was stationed to work on the technology. This included five respondents from manufacturing companies for the ERP technology; for MRP, four respondents from manufacturing companies, two respondents from retailing companies and one respondent from a construction sector, making a total of seven respondents from the companies; for IRES, two respondents from manufacturing companies and four respondents from retailing companies, making a total of six respondents from the companies, and for the DM technology only two respondents from manufacturing companies.

The semi-structured interview guide contains only one major question: How can the benefits of utilising these forecasting logistics technologies be accruable to the logistics forecasting of the construction industry? (See the last column of Tables 1 to 4.)

3.4 data analysis and interpretationThe collected quantitative data (observations) for this study were analysed, using descriptive analytical tools that included frequencies and percentiles. The tabulated results from the instruments were divided into two parts. The first part consisted of the related tasks in the manufacturing and retailing industries, and the second part consisted of tasks and subtasks in the construction industry. In the first part, the technologies were identified in five manufacturing and five retailing companies, thus a total of ten companies. The identification in each of these companies represented 20% of the 100% for the five manufacturing and the five retailing companies, respectively. In addition, the tasks in the five manufacturing and retailing companies were identified, with each occupying 20% of the 100%. For example, demand forecast in Table 2 was used by four of the five manufacturing companies, each company occupying 20%. This means 20% multiplied by four industries equals 80% of the 100% of the five manufacturing companies.

Isah, Shakantu & Ibrahim • Utilisation of forecasting technology

11

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Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

12

The same process applies to the five retailing companies. Moreover, for identification of the technologies in the five construction projects, each occupied 20% of 100%. The tasks that correspond to the manufacturing and retailing companies were also identified, each occupying 20% of 100% for the five projects in the construction industry.

The tasks under the construction project were subdivided into subtasks, for which 20% occupied by each project was further subdivided into the subtasks under the projects in the construction projects. This means that demand control only occupied 20%, which will be divided among the number of subtasks that appear under demand control. For example, the corresponding task to demand forecast in construction is demand control in Table 2. Therefore, demand control as a main task, each occupying 20% to make 100%, the 20% under “demand control’’ was further divided into four different subtasks in demand control (material demand on site, labour demand on site, equipment demand on site, and plant demand on site) that is, 20% divided by four equals 5% for each subtask. Furthermore, the total of these percentages from the manufacturing, retailing and construction industries were utilised to produce the percentage level of usage of the tasks and subtasks in the three industries. This was done by dividing each percentage unit of the task by the overall percentage total of the industries (manufacturing + retailing + construction) and multiply by 100%.

For example, using this formula L=U/T x 100%, where U=Unit percentage of one task of the three industries; T=Total percentage of manufacturing, retailing and construction industries, and L=Percentage level of usage of each unit percentage task. In addition, the total percentage and percentage proportion of tasks in the three industries were used to develop Figures 2 and 3 for MRP and IRES, respectively.

Using thematic data analysis, a nuanced account of the data could be presented by transcribing, coding and setting themes from the responses of the focus-group interviews (Clarke & Braun, 2013: 120). For this study, all shared experiences during the interviews with workers/operators were recorded and used as the interview data. Using Microsoft Excel (Bowen, Edwards & Cattel, 2012: 887), the raw data on the relevant benefits of the technology that could accrue to the tasks and subtasks in the construction logistics processes in Nigeria was analysed and categorised into conceptual themes, including benefits accruing for demand, stock, production, procurement, and procurement process.

3.5 limitationsIn the course of the data collection, access to some organisations, particularly the manufacturing and retailing sectors, was denied, as some information

Isah, Shakantu & Ibrahim • Utilisation of forecasting technology

13

Man

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Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

14

was considered strictly confidential and, therefore, not to be disclosed to researchers. Moreover, some organisations, particularly in the construction sectors, do not have the related technology under consideration. The researcher had to move on to consider only those that have the technology.

4. reSUltS and dIScUSSIon

4.1 enterprise resource planning (erp) technologyTable 1 shows that all the manufacturing industries adopted ERP technology for forecasting purposes, of which 80% of this industry used ERP technology for demand forecast. This result corroborates the findings of Belbaǧ, Çimen, Tarim and Taş (2009: 489) that, as a forecasting tool, demand planning in the manufacturing industry enhances the profitability of a product. GBS (2013: 1) and Nenni, Giustiniano and Pirolo (2013: 1), however, opine that the profitability of demand forecasting varies according to a company and an industry.

Moreover, 100% and 60% of the manufacturing industry used ERP technology for material forecast and production forecast, respectively. The results are in line with the findings of Chryssolouris, Papakostas Mourtzis, Michalos and Georgoulias (2009: 454) and Zhu, Li, Wang and Chen (2010: 266) on the use of ERP technology for customers’ products in improving efficiency. The results also corroborate the finding of Bayraktar et al. (2009: 136) on master production schedule module that provides feedback for the effective planning of all the resources of a company. Furthermore, 40% of the manufacturing industry used ERP technology for competitors and advertisement forecasting. These results validated the findings of Firat et al. (2008: 3) and Althonayan (2013: 20), on advertisement.

Surprisingly, ERP technology was not found for forecasting tasks in the retailing and construction industries.

The respondents in the construction projects studied revealed that, although they did not fully utilise the ERP technology, the latter could be utilised to improve the following area of construction logistics tasks:

• Demand control: Material demand on site, labour demand on site, equipment demands on site and plant demand on site.

• Stock control: Material on site, order management and material to be used.

• Production output control: Labour output and plant output.• Procurement: Bidding process.• Procurement process: Invitation to tender, submission of tender,

tender evaluation and report.

Isah, Shakantu & Ibrahim • Utilisation of forecasting technology

15

4.2 accruable benefits of erp technology to constructionTable 1 clearly shows that the interviewed respondents deemed that the following benefits could be accrued to the construction industry if the ERP technology is utilised in the construction industry for forecasting processes of logistics management, including determination of an accurate estimation, so that the actual construction cost does not deviate a great deal from the project cost of the undertaking; increased speed of the planning process in construction; increased efficiency of construction work by providing an overall view of the scenario of the project prior to making decisions; construction forecasting in real time; improved construction processes; improved construction customer service, as well as improved and faster information among different sections of construction.

These results support the finding of Althonayan (2013: 20) that ERP technology provides an accurate estimate and forecast in real time. The results also validate the findings of Addo-Tenkorang and Helo (2012: 3) and Ociepa-Kubicka (2017: 240), who mentioned the benefits of ERP to include enhancing business processes, facilitating the smooth flow of common functional information, and that good forecasting can help maximise gain and minimise loss from future conditions (Firat et al., 2008: 3).

4.3 material requirement planning (mrp) technologyA total of 80% and 40% of the manufacturing and retailing industries, respectively, used MRP technology for forecasting purposes, when compared to the construction industry that used only 20% of the MRP technology for forecasting. These results confirm Samuel and Ondiek’s (2014: 11) finding that MRP was used mostly in the manufacturing industry.

In terms of demand forecast, 80% and 40% of the manufacturing and retailing industries, respectively, used the MRP technology for demand forecast. However, in the construction industry, only 20% used the MRP technology for demand forecasting (demand control). Moreover, 40% of the manufacturing and retailing industries used the MRP technology for product forecast, whereas 20% of the construction industry used it for production forecast (production output). These results support the findings of Samaranayake (2012: 435), Kandananond (2012: 1) and Sarkar et al. (2014: 653) on the correctness of demand forecasts to expand production scheduling.

Moreover, for the sales and production forecast, the manufacturing industry used 40% and 60%, respectively. The results are in line with Imetieg and Lutovac’s (2015: 58) findings on effective forecasting to reduce the cost of a product.

Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

16

Therefore, the respondents in the construction projects studied revealed that, although they did not fully utilise MRP technology, the latter could be utilised to improve the following area of construction logistics tasks:

• Demand control: Material demand on site, labour demand on site, equipment demand on site and plant demand on site.

• Stock control: Material on site, order management and material to be used

• Production output control: Labour output and plant output • Procurement: Bidding process• Procurement process: Invitation to tender, submission of tender,

tender evaluation and report.

4.4 accruable benefits of mrp technology to constructionTable 2 shows that the interviewed respondents deemed that the following benefits could be accrued to construction industry if MRP technology is utilised in the construction industry for forecasting processes of logistics management. These include provision of better resource planning and reduced inventory level on the construction site; provision of accuracy of demand forecasts on the construction site; provision of production scheduling, capacity planning, MRP and inventory management in construction industries; provision of efficiency of a supply-chain system on site; provision of relatively fast, real and effective treatment of scheduling problems; reduction in the cost of production orders in construction works, and provision of critical information streams necessary for effective decision-making.

These results support the findings of Kandananond (2012: 1) and Imetieg and Lutovac (2015: 58) that MRP technology leads to better resource planning, efficiency of supply, fast treatment of scheduling planning, and lower cost of production. These also validate the findings of Samaranayake (2012: 435) and Madapusi and Souza (2012: 24) that MRP provides the following benefits: Planning of materials and resources, scheduling of operations for various units, and providing critical information streams necessary for effective decision-making.

Figure 1 shows that the total use of tasks using MRP technology is 300, 120 and 31.7 in the manufacturing, retailing and construction industries, respectively; each occupies a proportion of 66.5%, 26.7% and 7% across the three industries, respectively. This meant that the utilisation of MRP technology in the construction industry for forecasting was very low when compared to the manufacturing and retailing industries.

Isah, Shakantu & Ibrahim • Utilisation of forecasting technology

17

Figure 1: Material Requirement Planning (MRP) technology percentage utilisation

4.5 Inventory replenishment expert System (IreS) technology

A total of 40% and 80% of the manufacturing and retailing industries, respectively, adopted IRES technology for forecasting purposes, from which 40% and 20% of the manufacturing and retailing industries, respectively, used IRES technology for product forecast. These results confirm the finding of Richey et al (2010: 84) in section 2 of this study.

In terms of material forecast, 40% and 80% of the manufacturing and retailing industries, respectively, used IRES technology for material, while, for product forecast, 20% and 60% are used for IRES technology in manufacturing and retailing industries, respectively. Most of these results corroborate the findings of Errasti et al. (2010: 129) and Jaipuria and Mahapatra (2014: 2405) on IRES technology to offer the most effective timely replenishment strategy for each material supply, useful for prediction purposes.

It is surprising that IRES technology was not found to forecast tasks in the construction industry. The respondents in the construction projects studied revealed that, although they did not fully utilise IRES technology, it could be utilised to improve the following area of construction logistics tasks:

• Demand control: Material demand on site, labour demand on site, equipment demand on site and plant demand on site.

• Stock control: Material on site, order management and material to be used.

• Production output control: Labour output and plant output.• Procurement: Bidding process.

Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

18

• Procurement process: Invitation to tender, submission of tender, tender evaluation and report.

4.6 accruable benefits of IreS technology to construction

Table 3 shows that the interviewed respondents deemed that the following benefits could be accrued to construction industry if IRES technology is utilised in the construction industry for forecasting processes of logistics management. These include provision of accurate information of material on the construction site; reliable and consistent information; minimised inventory levels in the construction industry; increased service quality in the construction industry; increased productivity in the construction industry; increased efficiency of a supply-chain system on site; improved scheduling, and material planning.

These results support the findings of Errasti et al. (2010: 135) and Samuel and Ondiek (2014: 10) who conclude that IRES technology provides reliable information and increasing service quality. Richey et al. (2010: 84) also focus on increased productivity.

Figure 2 shows that the total use of the tasks using IRES technology is 100 and 240 in the manufacturing and retailing industries, respectively, occupying proportions of 29% and 71% in the two industries, respectively. This meant that IRES technology is not found in the construction industry for forecasting.

Figure 2: Inventory replenishment expert system (IRES) technology

4.7 data mining (dm) technologyA total of 40% of the manufacturing industry adopted DM technology for forecasting purposes, of which 40% of the manufacturing industry used DM technology for demand forecasting and sales forecasting. These results support the findings of Krause-Traudes et al. (2008: 3) and Xie (2009: 19)

Isah, Shakantu & Ibrahim • Utilisation of forecasting technology

19

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Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

20

on the use of demand forecasting for DM technology, as stated in section 2 of this study.

Furthermore, 20% of the manufacturing industry used DM technology for production and competitors forecast. These results are in line with the finding of Chiang et al. (2011: 220) on the information of production and product for improving industries’ efficiency.

The respondents in the construction projects studied revealed that, although they did not fully utilise DM technology, the latter could be utilised to improve the following area of construction logistics tasks:

• Demand control: Material demand on site, labour demand on site, equipment demand on site and plant demand on site.

• Stock control: Material on site, order management and material to be used

• Production output control: Labour output and plant output • Procurement: Bidding process• Procurement process: Invitation to tender, submission of tender,

tender evaluation and report.

4.8 accruable benefits of dm technology to constructionTable 4 shows that DM technology is not used in the construction and retailing industries for forecasting. Therefore, the interviewed respondents deemed that the following benefits could be accrued to the construction industry if DM technology is utilised in the construction industry for forecasting processes of logistics management: increased worker satisfaction in the construction industry; enhanced good construction design; provision of more effective goods transportation and distribution; reduced cost of construction; help organisations make proactive knowledge-driven decisions on construction; prepare databases to find hidden patterns in construction; find predictive information about the construction; increased labour productivity on site; reduction in the processing time of material on the construction site; improved use of the plant in the construction industry, and improved construction team experience.

Coincidentally, all these results support the findings of Paidi (2012: 4660) and Ramageri and Desai (2013: 47) that the technology enhances good construction. Moreover, these results are in line with the findings of Luis et al. (2012: 5529) and Greitemann et al. (2016: 32) that technology provides a better experience for the workers and reduces processing time.

Isah, Shakantu & Ibrahim • Utilisation of forecasting technology

21

Man

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5. conclUSIon The technological aspect of construction logistics, especially the forecasting, is overlooked and hardly understood in the Nigerian construction industry. This article assessed how ERP, MRP, IRES, and DM technologies could be utilised in the manufacturing and retailing industries to improve the forecasting processes of construction logistics.

Findings showed that all of the observed manufacturing industries (100%) adopted ERP technology for forecasting purposes (for material, demand, product, and production forecasts). Surprisingly, ERP technology was not used for forecasting in the retailing and construction sectors.

In addition, 80% and 40% of the observed companies in the manufacturing and retailing sectors, respectively, adopted MRP technology for forecasting purposes. Only 20% (one project) of the observed construction projects adopted MRP technology for forecasting in the following: 5% for demand forecast (demand control); 6.7% for material forecast (stock control), and 20% for product forecast (product output).

Moreover, 40% and 80% of the observed manufacturing and retailing sectors, respectively, adopted IRES technology for forecasting purposes; 40% of the observed companies in the manufacturing industry adopted DM technology for forecasting purposes. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that ERP, IRES and DM technologies were not used for forecasting purposes in the retailing and construction sectors, whereas the MRP technology is not fully used in the construction projects when compared to the manufacturing and retailing industries.

Due to the ultimate benefit that could accrue to the construction industry for the utilisation of the forecasting technology for forecasting purposes (namely achievement of full forecasting-efficiency gains in construction), ERP, MRP, IRES, and DM technologies could be utilised in the construction industry to improve the following tasks in the construction industry: demand control: material, labour, as well as equipment and plant demand on site; stock control: material on site, order management, and material to be used; production output control: labour output and plant output, and procurement process: bidding process, invitation to tender, submission of tender, tender evaluation and report. To this end, the Nigerian construction industry should leverage on this, in order to create the best ways of handling ERP, MRP IRES, and DM technologies to improve the forecasting logistics systems of the construction process.

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How to cite: Mnisi, N. & Karam, A. 2020. The impact of the integrated residential development programme on surrounding property values:

Case study of Fleurhof, Johannesburg. Acta Structilia, 27(1), pp. 29-58.

© Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Published by the UFShttp://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as

Research articles • Navorsingsartikels

nontokozo mnisi

Ms Nontokozo Mnisi, M.Sc. student of Science in Development Planning, School of Architecture and Planning, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. Phone: 0761078183, Email: <mninon10@gmail.com>

aly karam

Prof. Aly Karam, School of Architecture and Planning, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. Phone: 011 7177707, Email: <aly.karam@wits.ac.za>

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/24150487/as27i1.2

ISSN: 1023-0564

e-ISSN: 2415-0487

Acta Structilia 2020 27(1): 29-58

tHe Impact of tHe Integrated reSIdentIal development programme on SUrroUndIng propertY valUeS: caSe StUdY of fleUrHof, JoHanneSbUrg

Peer reviewed and revised May 2020

Published June 2020

*The authors declared no conflict of interest for the article or title

abStract South Africa is challenged with an increased backlog of adequate subsidised affordable housing for the marginalised in well-located areas that provide access to urban amenities and places of employment. However, the perception of subsidised affordable housing developments built in the urban core in close proximity to bonded properties is significantly negative. This article seeks to address whether the presence of subsidised affordable housing provided through South Africa’s Integrated Residential Development Programme (IRDP) impacts on the property value of bonded properties located nearby. This article examines the impact of the subsidised affordable housing development of Fleurhof, Johannesburg, on surrounding property values. It investigates, in particular, whether the IRDP housing development decreases property values. Using hedonic pricing models (HPM) with regressions, the housing attributes (characteristics) and property price data, dating from 2001 to 2017, were used to determine the effect on the value of

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properties in the suburbs of Meadowlands East Zone 1 and Orlando West in Soweto and Florida in Roodepoort, as the two closest residential communities to Fleurhof. The article reveals that the close proximity of the housing development in the initial stages (2001-2010) of the development affected property values negatively. However, in the long run, the housing development does not affect property values.Keywords: Hedonic price modelling, housing characteristics, Integrated Residential Development Programme (IRDP), subsidised affordable housing, property value

abStrakDie agterstand in voldoende gesubsidieerde bekostigbare behuising vir gemarginaliseerders, in goedgeleë gebiede wat toegang bied tot stedelike geriewe en werkplekke, is ’n uitdaging vir Suid-Afrika. Daar is egter ’n negatiewe persepsie oor die bou van gesubsidieerde bekostigbare behuisingsontwikkelings in die stadskern naby omgewings met eiendomme waarop verbande geregistreer is. In hierdie artikel word aandag gegee aan die vraag of die teenwoordigheid van gesubsidieerde bekostigbare behuising wat deur die Suid-Afrikaanse Geïntegreerde Residensiële Ontwikkelingsprogram (IRDP) aangebied word, die eiendomswaarde van die verbandgeregistreerde eiendom wat in die naby omgewing geleë is, beïnvloed. Hierdie artikel ondersoek die impak van die gesubsidieerde ontwikkeling van bekostigbare behuising in Fleurhof, Johannesburg, op die omliggende eiendomswaardes, en veral of die IRDP-behuisingsontwikkeling eiendomswaardes verlaag. Deur gebruik te maak van hedoniese prysmodelle (HPM) met regressies, is die behuisingseienskappe en eiendomsprysgegewens vanaf 2001 tot 2017 gebruik om die waarde van eiendomme in die voorstede van Meadowlands East Zone 1 en Orlando West in Soweto en Florida in Roodepoort, as die twee woongemeenskappe naaste aan Fleurhof, te ontleed. Die studie toon dat die nabyheid van die huisontwikkeling in die beginfases (2001-2010) van die ontwikkeling eiendomswaardes negatief beïnvloed het. Op die lange duur beïnvloed die ontwikkeling van behuising egter nie die eiendomswaardes nie.Sleutelwoorde: Behuisingseienskappe, eiendomswaarde, Geïntegreerde Resi-densiële Ontwikkelings program (IRDP), gesubsidieerde bekostigbare behuising, hedoniese prysmodellering

1. IntrodUctIon The South African Constitution (RSA, 1996: 11), in chapter 2 section 26, states that everyone has the right to access adequate housing. It is the responsibility of the National Department of Human Settlements (NDoHS) to ensure that this right is honoured and adhered to (RSA, 1997: 10). The delivery of sustainable subsidised affordable housing in South Africa has posed a great challenge to the post-apartheid government. The country’s ever-increasing population and a limited supply of land within the urban core have resulted in a decline in the delivery of subsidised affordable housing (Sisulu, 2016: online). In an effort to advance the delivery of subsidised affordable housing in South Africa, the NDoHS established the “Breaking New Ground” (BNG) strategy (Burgoyne, 2008: 30). The BNG policy aims to redirect and enhance already existing housing delivery mechanisms in a more responsive, sustainable and effective way (Burgoyne, 2008: 31). The policy also endeavours to “promote the achievement of a non-racial, integrated society through the development

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of sustainable human settlements and quality housing” (DLGH, 2005: 8). Thus, within the BNG strategy, the Integrated Residential Development Programme (IRDP) was introduced. The IRDP is targeted towards the development of sustainable human settlements in well-located areas within the urban core whereby individuals of all socio-economic backgrounds are catered for (Van Der Byl, 2015: 10-32; NDoHS, 2010: n.p.).

The development of subsidised affordable housing in well-located areas means that such developments could be built in close proximity to high- to middle-income neighbourhoods. However, the locality of these developments raises issues whereby property owners and/or ratepayers oppose these developments because of their negative perceptions towards such developments (Cummings & Landis, 1993). These individuals are quick to conclude that subsidised affordable housing developments will ruin their neighbourhood (Usrey, 2012: 1). It is a common belief that the close proximity of subsidised affordable housing will decrease the value of surrounding property values. This is based on the idea that such developments are unattractive, poorly maintained and managed, and will, in the long run, increase traffic and the level of crime in an area (Habitat for Humanity, 2008).

Property value, as an important aspect of the property market, determines the desirability of a neighbourhood (Ge & Du, 2007: 20). Property value not only considers the price of the property, but is also dependent on various factors such as its location, the surrounding neighbourhood, its physical attributes, and accessibility (Ajibola, Awodiran & Salu-Kosoko, 2013: 195). Time-honoured residents in an area, specifically property owners, are always on guard for any possible changes that may occur in their neighbourhoods or neighbouring land uses that may impact on their property values (Scally & Tighe, 2015: 750).

Property owners who oppose subsidised affordable housing are also referred to as “Not In My BackYard” (NIMBY) home owners, and they perceive the development of subsidised affordable housing developments as a raid of undesirable neighbours into their neighbourhoods who seek to undermine their security, quality of life and property values (Tighe, 2010: 9). NIMBY home owners continually raise questions about whether or not the sale and the prices of their bonded properties are affected when a subsidised affordable housing development is located in close proximity to their properties (Scally & Tighe, 2015: 765).

Many studies (Nourse, 1963; Lyons & Loveridge, 1993; Lee, Culhane & Wachter, 1999; Bento, Lowe & Knapp, 2008; Castells, 2010) have found that subsidised affordable housing has neither a long-term nor a short-term negative impact on surrounding property values. Other studies, however, have indicated that there is a negative impact (Cummings & Landis, 1993).

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In reality, many local communities still believe the fallacy that subsidised affordable housing developments in close proximity decrease property value (Nguyen, 2005: 15). It was, therefore, important to analyse the property values of properties in the suburbs of Meadowlands East Zone 1 and Orlando West in Soweto and Florida in Roodepoort, as the two closest residential communities to Fleurhof, in order to understand how the presence of the IRDP housing development affects the property value of bonded properties located around the IRDP development.

2. lIteratUre revIeW In order to understand how the IRDP impacts on property values, it is important to introduce the present theory on residential development and property value included in this article. The current theory focuses on integrated residential development, location, property value, housing markets, and neighbourhood character in South Africa.

2.1 Integrated residential development in South africaHousing development in the South African context should be introduced against the colonial and apartheid spatial planning segregated policies of the past (Malete, 2014: 20). The main features of the colonial-apartheid era such as the displacement of non-Whites, racial segregation, and the introduction of influx control laws of non-Whites brought an increased level of corruption on zoning ordinances motivated by race (Luyenge, 2011: 102-111). The legacy of the past presented the democratic government with a huge housing challenge. They thus instituted the 1994 Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) to address these socio-economic disparities (Koma & Joseph, 2014: 4). A key aim of this housing reform programme was to redress the country’s housing debacle, prioritising the building of adequate houses for all marginalised South Africans who were previously located on the periphery away from economic opportunities (Burgoyne, 2008: 40).

RDP housing was a package involving secure tenure of land, a top structure and the supply of basic services (Burgoyne, 2008: 14). However, by the late 1990s, concerns were raised about the quality of these housing units and their locality on the periphery, with critiques indicating that the housing delivery policy further prolonged apartheid spatial planning (Koma & Joseph, 2014: 5). In 2004, in order to strengthen and update the RDP policy in the housing context, the National Department of Housing (NDoH) released the Breaking New Ground (BNG) policy – a comprehensive housing plan for the development of Sustainable Human Settlements (SHS) (Koma & Joseph, 2014: 6). This policy builds on existing housing legislation and policy and emphasises the need to accelerate the delivery of sustainable human

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settlements (SHS), redressing colonial and apartheid spatial planning through the development of socially, economically and spatially integrated housing delivery processes (Langeberg Local Municipality, [n.d.]: online). In 2009, after reviewing the BNG policy, the DHS found that the key focus remained housing rather than human settlement development (Tissington, 2011: 80). The NDoH implemented the IRDP to overcome existing housing policy programmes that focus primarily on the development of subsidised housing and do not provide much scope for area-wide settlement planning and the integration of a range of housing types and price categories, together with commercial and social amenities in a project (Tissington, 2011: 81).

The programme provides for the acquisition of land, servicing of stands for a variety of land uses, including commercial, recreational, schools, and clinics, as well as residential stands for low-, middle- and high-income groups, taking an area-wide planning approach based on the needs of the community. The implementation of the IRDP aims to facilitate the development of integrated human settlements, including all the necessary land uses, housing types, and price categories, creating social, economic and spatial integration, situated in well-located areas (Chipingu, 2015: n.p.).

In this article, well-located areas refers to areas within the urban core close to economic opportunities. Subsidised affordable housing, provided through the IRDP, is defined or constitutes fully subsidised BNG housing, social housing and subsidised housing, which bridges the shortfall of housing delivered by the government and houses delivered by the private sector (referred to as Gap housing) (Rust, 2009: online).

2.2 location theoryAccording to the location theory, the more accessible a location is to positive elements in the environment, the more valuable it is (Jordaan, Drost & Makgata, 2004: 533). However, this also depends on the way in which the land is used, as land calls for different uses. For instance, residential land uses desire convenient access to social amenities (Jordaan et al., 2004: 533). The importance of residential land accessibility is dependent on both monetary and non-monetary factors such as the cost of travelling to work or school and the level of peace and quiet an area provides (Jordaan et al., 2004: 534). Consequently, in this article, the term ‘well-located’ considers these factors. In an effort to reverse apartheid spatial planning, subsidised affordable housing should be located in areas with convenient access to social amenities, public infrastructure, and economic opportunities.

Location is an important factor in determining the value of a property, as it adds to the profitability of property investment (Seth, 2017: online). Location holds a time-distance relationship between a property or a neighbourhood

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and all the different possible origins and destinations that people may go to or come from (Herold & Leonard, 1991: 343). Herold and Leonard (1991: 344) state that the more distance travelled to get to a location, where a property is located, and has many attractive features and amenities despite the long commute, will command more value than nearer locations that lack attractive features and amenities.

2.3 property value and housing markets“Property value is defined as an estimate of what a home or a piece of land is actually worth” (Sherman, [n.d.]: online). Property value or fair market value is an estimated value of a property generated from the actual price of the property that both consumer and seller agree upon when making a property transaction deal (Hummel, 2011: online). Other factors such as market demand, physical characteristics of the property, proximity of the property to amenities, and the property’s location affect property value (Uchenna, 2014: 24; Goslett, 2011: online). When estimating an accurate value of a property, the main element that must be considered is current market conditions (Goslett, 2011: online).

Several methods may be used to determine property value. The hedonic valuation technique is the most common, as it considers accessibility to amenities and that housing is a hedonic good (Selim, 2008: 66). A hedonic good represents a bundle of attributes (both intrinsic and extrinsic) that contribute to a consumer’s utility and are valued by the consumer (Mourouzi-Sivitanidou, 2020: 257). Intrinsic attributes are those attributes that characterise the property itself, whereas extrinsic attributes consider attributes that are external to the property, such as the environmental and locational attributes of a property and the exterior design of a property (Mourouzi-Sivitanidou, 2020: 258).

Housing markets in both the public and the private sector are interconnected (Kim, 2010). A measure of the demand and supply of subsidised affordable housing and private markets may be applied in an effort to understand the interconnectedness of these different housing markets (Kim, 2010). However, the relationship between subsidised affordable housing and bonded property values is fairly complex (Nguyen, 2005: 16).

2.4 neighbourhood characterNeighbourhoods are characterised by their complex attributes that together determine their overall character (Botein, 2002:15). The overall neighbourhood character is made up of the neighbourhood’s location, housing stock, socio-economic characteristics, and other attributes (Botein, 2002: 360). When considering the impact of subsidised affordable housing developments, housing market conditions also need to be

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considered, as the development of subsidised affordable housing has a quantifiable effect on housing markets (Bento et al., 2008: 11). Bento, Lowe and Knapp (2008: 13) state that the number of low-income households in an area will increase with the development of subsidised affordable housing in that area. Meanwhile, the price of homes in that neighbourhood with a particular socio-economic character would eventually increase, while the size of new dwelling units would decrease (Bento et al., 2008: 14).

Housing, like any other land use, has an impact on the surrounding neighbourhood (Botein, 2002: 360). However, different types of dwelling units are anticipated to impact on neighbourhoods differently. This may be noted in the different types of zoning regulations used for different residential uses (Freeman & Botein, 2002: 360). The impact of subsidised affordable housing developments on property values, particularly in a depressed housing market, may, in reality, generate positive externalities that will, in the long term, improve a neighbourhood’s housing prices (Woo, Joh & Zandt, 2016: 2490). A positive externality includes the benefits that bonded property home owners would gain when a subsidised affordable housing development is developed in the neighbourhood such as the revitalisation of their neighbourhood (Mourouzi-Sivitanidou, 2020: 258).

2.5 Subsidised affordable housing, neighbourhoods, and property value

A literature review on the impact of subsidised affordable housing on property values does not have a single conclusive answer to the overall impact of subsidised affordable housing on property value (Cummings & Landis, 1993). In addition, many of these studies are context-specific and, therefore, difficult to use or generalise in different contexts (Nguyen, 2005: 19). Some results found that the development of subsidised affordable housing had either negative spill-overs or externalities towards the neighbourhoods, thus affecting property values. For instance, the development brought undesirables such as noise and traffic into the neighbourhood (Cummings & Landis, 1993). In some neighbourhoods, however, the introduction of subsidised affordable housing not only increased property value, but also meant that their neighbourhoods experienced a revitalisation by eliminating disamenities (such as deteriorating buildings) in the neighbourhoods (Woo et al., 2016: 2490).

Accordingly, subsidised affordable housing has no impact and has indicated that it is merely about perception rather than an actual decrease in property values that is the prevalent attitude of NIMBY home owners. Woo (2014: 58) reveals that the way in which different subsidised affordable housing units are provided impacts differently on nearby property values. Woo (2014: 142) makes particular reference to the fact that the different characteristics

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of each housing programme, unit, and neighbourhood environment would result differently in terms of the overall impact on property value. For instance, the single detached housing unit provided through the BNG policy would have a different impact on a neighbourhood’s property value than the medium- to high-rise residential units provided through the social housing programme (Nguyen, 2005: 17).

3. StUdY areaFleurhof is an integrated residential development situated south west of Johannesburg, Gauteng (Figure 1). It is located between the township of Soweto and the affluent suburb of Florida next to the already existing residential township of Fleurhof extension 1 (Dube, 2013: 62). Fleurhof is situated in the City of Johannesburg’s (CoJ’s) Region C and is one of the largest integrated residential developments in Gauteng (CoJ, 2017: online). The development is located in the urban core of the major urban concentration areas in the CoJ. Construction of the development began in 2011. It covers a total area of 4.4 km2 with a total of 10 411 residential units, housing an estimated 83 000 people (Calgro M3, 2014: online). The development is a mixed mode human settlement development that includes various housing typologies and tenures, which are targeted at specific economic markets that comprise fully subsidised BNG housing, social housing, open-market rental housing, and open-market bonded housing (Khan, 2014: 16). The project started in 2011 with the fully subsidised BNG housing as the first phase, and the other types of housing happened only after two years. Hence, the project was known for some time as a subsidised BNG housing development.

This study used the property values of 1 100 bonded properties located in the neighbourhoods of Meadowlands East Zone 1 and Orlando West, which are located in the township of Soweto, and Florida, which is located in Roodepoort, which surround Fleurhof.

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Figure 1: Locality of FleurhofSource: Google Earth

3.1 rationale for selecting the study areaWhereas previous subsidised affordable housing developments were located on the periphery, fundamentally, enforcing the apartheid era’s spatial planning, Fleurhof was considered in this study, as it is in the urban core where urban amenities are easily accessible to the residents of the subsidised affordable housing development (Sihlongonyane & Karam, 2003: 159; Khan, 2014: 8).

Housing in Fleurhof, provided in accordance with the IRDP, is sustainable and located in the urban core, and provides better social and economic opportunity for residents (Tissington, 2011: 8). Subsidised affordable housing through the IRDP is of better quality and infrastructure, thus decreasing poverty concentration in one locality, as the programme allows residents who are able to purchase property in the open private property market to build their own homes in the Fleurhof development. This promoted the integration of individuals from different socio-economic backgrounds in the same neighbourhood (Tissington, 2011: 8).

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4. reSearcH metHodThis study assesses the impact of the integrated residential development of Fleurhof, based on property price and/or property value data, from 2001 to 2017, from the suburbs of Meadowlands East Zone 1 and Orlando West in Soweto and Florida in Roodepoort, as the two closest residential communities to Fleurhof. In this study, hedonic methods that use multiple regression techniques were used to analyse the locational value, because hedonic pricing models are essential in order to estimate the total price of the bundle characteristics of an individual property (Selim, 2008: 66). The study applied a log-log functional form, as it provides better interpretation of the beta coefficients. The dependent variable (price) was logged and regressed against 10 independent variables (attributes) that fall under the categories of structural attributes, locational amenities, and neighbourhood characteristics.

4.1 The Hedonic price model (Hpm) and housing attributes

In order to analyse the impact of the subsidised affordable housing development in Fleurhof, it is important to briefly introduce the Hedonic Price Model (HPM) and how it works.

The HPM determines the price of a property by its internal characteristics, which include the property’s size, appearance and condition, and its external characteristics, which include factors such as the property’s accessibility to schools, shopping centres, and the value of other homes surrounding that residential property (Woo, 2014: 8). The method only works well on goods that have varying amounts of attributes, which, in the case of a housing unit, reflect the value of the property based on the set of characteristics that an individual would consider important or desirable when purchasing that property (Opaluch, Grigalunas, Diamantides, Mazzotta & Johnston, 1999: 2). HPM assumes that housing characteristics are traded as a bundle of inherent attributes (Woo, 2014: 8; Chin & Chau, 2003: 155). Consequently, the basic hedonic equation states that the market price (P) (dependent variable) of a property can be expressed as a function of a property’s attributes such as structural attributes (SA), neighbourhood characteristics (N), and locational amenities (LA) (explanatory variables or independent variables in this study) (Equation 1) (Randeniya, Gayani & Amarawickrama, 2017: 114).

P = f (SA, N, LA) (Equation 1)

Structural attributes (SA), also referred to as the internal attributes of a residential unit, describe the physical characteristics of the house such as the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, and the size of the house)

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(Xiao, 2017: 18). The value of a property is frequently related to these attributes. If a property has more desirable attributes in comparison to other properties, the valuation of these attributes would be reflected in higher market prices for the house (Xiao, 2017: 19).

Locational amenities (LA), the accessibility to urban amenities and the CBD, no matter how accessibility may be defined, directly affect the price of a property (Kohlhase, 1991: 2). Some location attributes impact positively, while others have a negative impact on the value of a property. For instance, the view of a cemetery may have a negative impact on a property’s price (Randeniya et al., 2017: 114). In the case of this study, the distance of Fleurhof’s subsidised affordable housing development is closely considered.

Neighbourhood characteristics (N) depict the quality of economic and social characteristics of the neighbourhood such as the racial composition of a neighbourhood, in the case of this study. According to Metz (2016: 15), the concentration of race, particularly of Black people, in a neighbourhood decreases an area’s property value when socio-economic conditions are controlled for. Other neighbourhood characteristics include the quality of municipal services such as schools, hospitals and places of worship located in a neighbourhood, and externalities such as the crime rate, traffic noise, and airport noise (Randeniya et al., 2017: 115).

The HPM also determines how various attributes of different housing units affect the value of a property. The traditional HPM technique is based on a multiple regression model, which observes a large number of property transactions as an independent variable and the value determinant as a dependent variable (Bello, 2009: 8). Because it is impossible to sell a property’s attributes separately, the regressions coefficients give way to the marginal contribution of each attribute to the sales price for the respective property. This, therefore, accounts for the differences in the way in which the price index of real estate is constructed from other property types. Hence, the use of equation 2:

P = f (SAβ, Nγ, LAα) + ε (Equation 2)

Where

• P: a vector of observed logarithm of house values or prices• SA: a matrix of physical attributes of the property • N: the neighbourhood’s characteristics • LA: the distance of a property to amenities • ε: the disturbance or the error term.

The parameters (α,β,γ) describe the relationships between property prices and the measures included in the three classified attributes (SA, N, and LA).

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The incremental change in the price of the house represents the additional amount which house buyers are willing to pay for a marginal change in the attribute holding all the other attributes.

4.2 Sampling method and sizeA list provided by Lightstone Property (a reliable property acquisition company) showed 1 100 complete cases of registered sales happening around the development of Fleurhof in the suburbs of Meadowlands East Zone 1, Orland West and Florida. The decision was to use all 1 100 cases, resulting in a 100% sample size. The table advocated by Krejcie and Morgan (1970: 608) for construction-related research samples recommends a sample size for a population of 1 100 as 275. This recommendation validates the sample size of 1 100 as excellent for the population of 1 100.

4.3 data collectionLightstone Property provided data on the year that each property was sold as well as property value records from 2001 to 2017. This is important, as it considers the time before the construction of the development of Fleurhof to where the development stands presently (pre-construction and post-construction). Neighbourhood demographic data (racial composition data) was obtained through Quantec data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) shapefiles that were available from the University of the Witwatersrand’s Geography Department in the form of qualitative data.

Property price and characteristics data (attributes) were categorised based on the three main category variables in the HPM, which include structural attributes, locational amenities and neighbourhood characteristics. The model contains the purchase price (dependent variable) and 10 independent variables, which are presented in Table 1 together with the definitions. These variables were selected, because a property is considered a hedonic good, which is impacted by both its intrinsic (structural attributes) and extrinsic (locational amenities and neighbourhood characteristics) attributes.

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Table 1: Definition of selected variables descriptive statistics

Category Variable DefinitionDependent variable Purchase price The purchase price of the property Independent variablesStructural attributes Erf size Size of plot

Bedrooms The number of bedrooms in each individual property

Bathrooms The number of bathrooms in each individual property

Property’s age The age of the property Year The year the property was sold

Locational amenities Clinic The distance of each property to the nearest clinic

Police station The distance of each property to the nearest police station

School The distance of each property to the nearest school

Retail centre The distance of each property to the nearest retail centre

Fleurhof The distance of each property to the integrated residential development of Fleurhof

Neighbourhood characteristics

Racial composition

Constructed from the race of the property owner (Black, Coloured, White, and Indian)

Source: Authors’ own

4.4 data analysisDescriptive statistics were used to analyse the variables for 1 100 properties before the regression analysis was done. Only the mean, maximum and minimum values were reported. In order to investigate the impact of Fleurhof’s housing development on surrounding property values, a multivariable Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with the use of the linear formulation and log-log formulation using STATA to run the regressions was employed. The OLS multivariable model was used in this study, as it allows for the use of more than one independent variable and allows for the determination of statistically significant variables according to the considered independent variables (Hutcheson, 2011: 224). The use of more than one independent variable provides for the best regression model in the case of this study, as it increases the robustness of the model.

The hedonic OLS model allows for the estimation of the effects of a residential property’s physical characteristics, neighbourhood characteristics and locational amenities, and the distance to the housing development of Fleurhof on bonded property prices. The statistically significant variables were identified using adjusted R-squared (adj R2) statistic and P-value. R-squared is the proportion of difference in the dependent variable (property

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price), which can be explained by the independent variables (locational amenities, neighbourhood characteristics and structural attributes) (Frost, 2013: online). Adjusted R-squared regulates the R-squared for the independent variables that have a significant impact in the model. This study considers the adj-R2 to identify significant variables in the regression. R-squared was also considered, as it is an overall measure of the strength of the regression and does not reflect the extent to which any particular independent variable is associated with the dependent variable (UCLA, n.d.: online). Essentially, adj-R2 represents the percentage of the response variable variation, which is explained in a linear model. The percentage of adj-R2 falls between 0 and 100%, whereby

• 0% in the regression results shows that the model does not explain the variability of the response data, whereas

• 100% in the regression results shows that the model explains all the variability of the response data (Frost, 2013: online).

The higher the adj-R2, the better the model fits the data. However, adj-R2 does not show whether a regression model is adequate or not. For instance, a low adjusted R-squared value may indicate a good model or a high adjusted R-squared value may be shown for a model that does not fit the data. Thus, the P-value was also used in this study to ensure that the independent variables were significant within the model (Frost, 2013: online). The p-value also measures the statistically significance (p=0.05) of each individual independent variable within the regression. The p-value shows the level of randomness: when P-value is high, the t-Stat is low, and vice­versa. A low P-stat means a good fit for the independent variable under analysis (Dodds, 2010: 35).

4.5 limitations The number of houses sold in the study area was a limiting factor. If the property market of the area was more active, it would have resulted in a larger sample. It would also have assisted in obtaining other sales for different areas that are close to subsidised housing and compare the results from Fleurhof. This makes this study limited in the scope of generalisability to other areas in South Africa. Nevertheless, the model can be used to test these results in other areas in South Africa.

5. reSUltS

5.1 descriptive statisticsTable 2 depicts the descriptive statistics of the variables for 1 100 observations (properties) used in running the regressions. The average real

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estate purchase price is R437,045.10, ranging from R222.63 to a maximum value of R6,624,090.00. The average erf size is 537m2 and ranges from 21m2 to 3267m2. The year in which most of the properties were obtained was 2006, and, on purchase, properties were on average 3.45 years old. The distance to the nearest shopping centre is 4,527 km on average, whereas for clinics it increases to approximately 6,281 km.

Table 2: Descriptive statistics

Variable Observations Mean Standard deviation

Minimum Maximum

Dependent variable Purchase priceLNreal purchase price 1100 11.57904 2.208159 5.405511 15.70622Real purchase price 1100 437045.10 523303.60 222.63 6 624 090.00Independent variables Structural attributesErf size 1100 537.0364 590.2749 21 3267LNproperty age 1100 3.456305 0.5001687 2.188296 4.47553Bathrooms 1100 1.330909 0.5220777 1 4Bedrooms 1100 2.468182 0.7375823 1 6Year 1100 2006 4.24898 2001 2017

Locational amenitiesLNdist to Fleurhof 1100 7.479643 0.0719978 7.243484 7.570777Clinic 1100 6281.252 5520.331 1164 122199LNclinic 1100 8.474055 0.7376852 7.059618 11.71341School 1100 1524.925 756.4968 39 4200LNschool 1100 7.157952 0.6817952 3.663562 8.34284Police station 1100 2816.974 1301.336 162 6058.714LNpolice station 1100 7.81779 5309471 5.087596 8.709253Retail centre 1100 4527.19 2519.35 330.5654 8814LNretail centre 1100 8.22915 0.6519196 5.800805 9.084097

Neighbourhood characteristicsRacial composition 1100 0.6563636 0.4751375

5.2 regression results

5.2.1 model 1: regression by suburb The first model ran regressions on the acquired suburbs of Florida, Meadowlands East Zone 1 and Orlando West as well as a regression on all the suburbs for a final summary. This is done to test for the impact of the integrated residential development on property values of the different suburbs. The multivariable regression analysis is applied to further investigate and understand the complex relationship between the independent variables (attributes) with a keen interest on the distance to Fleurhof variable on property values.

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The regression output in Table 3 shows that the 1 100 housing units that were used or observed in the regression were statistically significant, with an adj-R2 of 0.8741 (87%). This means that 87% of the variation in the purchase price of a housing unit is explained by the independent variables that have been selected in the regression. The independent variables are statistically significant, with a p-value less than 0.05, thus indicating that the coefficients have a 95% confidence level and that the selected independent variables have some effect on the purchase price of a property. The bedroom variable has been omitted in this regression, as it neither added nor retracted from the goodness of fit of the model.

The regression output of 1 100 residential properties located in all suburbs indicated a negative coefficient or a negative relationship between the age of a residential property and property value. A beta value of -0.68 indicates that, with every year a residential property increases in age, the purchase price of the property decreases by 0.68 units, holding all other factors constant. The negative relationship of a property’s age towards the dependent variable (purchase price) may be due to the concern of the state or condition of the property (as many of the properties selected in this study were built 27 years ago), as an older residential property may be perceived as old fashioned and may have dilapidated over the years. This, therefore, decreases the property’s value; many home buyers may prefer newer built homes that are in style with current trends (Clarke, 2010: online). Positive coefficients such as bathrooms (0.17) and erf size (0.00) have an overall positive relationship with purchase price, essentially providing that these variables increase a residential property’s value. However, this positive impact towards a property’s value is significantly small. Positive coefficients, on the contrary, indicate a positive relationship with the dependent variable. Variables such as erf size and bathrooms indicate that, with every increase in the number of bathrooms or an increase in a property’s size, the purchase price of a property increases. This is expected, as Tse and Love (2000: 366) state that an increase in a property’s structural characteristics increases a property’s value.

The distance to amenities such as schools and the police station are depicted with a positive coefficient, indicating that, with every one-metre increase in the distance to schools (specifically primary schools) or the police station, a property’s value increases. This shows that properties located right next to a police station or a school have lower property values than a property located further away from these amenities. This is unexpected, as common property valuation theory states that the close proximity of schools increases the property’s value (Kim, 2010: 17). However, one of the reasons the proximity to schools is considered to decrease a property’s value is that the schools surrounding the suburbs selected in this study are not top-performing schools and may not be well managed aesthetically. Further, the regression depicted

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Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

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Mnisi & Karam • The impact of the integrated residential development...

47

a negative beta coefficient for the distance to the clinic and the shopping centre. This shows that, with every one-metre increase in the distance of a property from a shopping centre or clinic, the purchase price of the property decreases. This reveals that residential properties right next to a shopping centre have an increased property value, which is in alignment with Oloke, Simon and Adesulu (2013: 641) who state that the distance to amenities such as a shopping centre increases a property’s value.

Racial composition indicated a positive beta coefficient with a value of (0.006), indicating that, with every increase of Black people into a neighbourhood, the purchase price of a property increases, holding all other factors constant. This is surprising as, according to Metz (2016: 22), an increase of Black people into a neighbourhood means a decline in property value. However, as mentioned earlier, Metz’s (2016: 10) study was conducted in a predominantly White neighbourhood. The reason for the positive beta value may be that the suburbs used in the study have more Black people residing in the neighbourhoods than any other race. Consequently, the increase of Black people into the neighbourhood has no impact on property values.

The ‘distance to Fleurhof’ variable shows a positive coefficient with the dependent variable purchase price. A positive beta coefficient indicates that, with every one-metre increase in the distance of a property from the housing development of Fleurhof, a property’s purchase price increases by 2.24. The beta value of 2.24 is statistically significant with a p-level below 0.05. This positive coefficient, however, indicates that the further away a property is from the housing development of Fleurhof, the higher a property’s price, essentially, providing that the housing development of Fleurhof is perceived negatively the closer one’s property is located to the housing development. As mentioned earlier, the reason for this negative impact on property values may be because of perceived (by the residents living around the housing development) potential spill-overs the development may bring to the suburbs surrounding the housing development, as it has been perceived as subsidised BNG housing development.

Model 1 indicates that the distance to Fleurhof has a negative relationship with property values. This indicates that the general perception of the subsidised affordable housing development is negative, with many residents preferring to be located further away from the development. Residents are, therefore, willing to pay more to be located further away from the subsidised affordable housing development. The negative perception of the housing development shows that NIMBY home-owner perceptions are prevalent towards the housing development in Fleurhof. This negative perception in relation to the development has, in turn, resulted in a decline in property values in the surrounding neighbourhoods. The reason for this is that the development of the integrated residential development has raised home owners’ fears about

Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

48

the potential negative spill-overs that the development may bring into the neighbourhoods such as an increased level of crime, more traffic and noise, consequently changing the character of their neighbourhoods. In addition, this study shows that the subsidised affordable housing development does not necessarily boost the property values of depressed neighbourhoods such as Orlando West and Meadowlands East Zone 1.

5.2.2 model 2: regression by construction timeThe second model ran regressions on the time before (2001-2010) the construction of the integrated residential development in comparison to the post-construction (2011-2017) of the integrated residential development. This is done to observe the level of impact on property values after the development of the integrated residential development. This is done is an effort to understand the impact of the development over time and whether time-honoured residents’ concerns are valid or not. The model also used the log-log functional form, as depicted in Equation 3.

lnP = α + β0+ β1lnX1 + β2lnX2 +… β10 lnX10… +δ1Z1 (Equation 3)

Where lnP represents the log-transformed property value of the investigated houses; X1 to X10 represents the different explanatory variables that are considered which affect a property’s value. Z1 represents the perceived disamenity, which is the distance of each individual property to the integrated residential development of Fleurhof. The dependent variable used in estimating the hedonic equation was the purchase price of individual properties located close to the integrated residential development of Fleurhof.

5.2.2. i pre-construction (2001-2010)Table 4 shows that the ‘distance to Fleurhof’ variable has a positive beta coefficient. The positive coefficient indicates that the housing development of Fleurhof has a negative impact on property values. The further away a property is located from the housing development, the more the property’s value increases. This, however, would mean that properties located right next to the land proposed for the integrated residential development would have had a negative property value.

With positive beta coefficients, structural attributes ‘erf size’ (0.00) and ‘bathroom’ (0.11) indicated a positive relationship with property value. This aligns with the literature. Oloke et al. (2013: 639) state that an increase in a property’s size results in an increase in a property’s value. However, ‘bedrooms’ indicated a negative coefficient, with a beta value of -0.15. The negative relationship between the number of bedrooms and the purchase price may be because extra bedrooms within the selected

Mnisi & Karam • The impact of the integrated residential development...

49

Tabl

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1

Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

50

suburbs between 2001 and 2010 were not demanded by consumers, thus affecting property values negatively. Distance to the clinic and retail centre indicated a negative beta coefficient, indicating that the further away a property is located from these amenities, the more a property’s value decreases. This shows that properties located within close proximity to these amenities have an increased property value. The ease of access to these amenities thus makes the property attractive to consumers and, therefore, increases such a property’s value. Distance to the police station and schools, on the contrary, have a positive beta coefficient, indicating that, with every increase in the distance of a property from the police station or a school, a property’s value increases.

5.2.2. i post-construction (2011-2017)Table 4 shows that the ‘distance to Fleurhof’ variable has a negative beta coefficient. The negative coefficient indicates that the integrated residential development of Fleurhof impacts on property values positively. The further away a property is located from the housing development, the more a property’s value decreases. This means that perceptions have changed over time, and the housing development is viewed positively, possibly with the start of the building of bonded housing after 2013.

The variables ‘erf size’ and ‘bathrooms’ are depicted with a positive beta coefficient indicating a positive relationship with the dependent variable purchase price. The locational variables ‘clinic’ and ‘retail centre’ are presented with a negative coefficient, indicating that the further away a property is located from these amenities, the more a property’s value decreases. Distance to the clinic and retail centre are presented with a negative coefficient, indicating that the further away a property is located from these amenities, the more a property’s value decreases. Distance to the police station and schools, on the contrary, have a positive coefficient, indicating that, with every increase in the distance of a property from the police station or a school, a property’s value increases. Racial composition is presented with a positive coefficient, indicating that the more Black people that move into the neighbourhood, the more the property values will increase.

In comparison to Model 1, Model 2 presented different outputs – the post-construction regression presented a negative beta coefficient for the ‘distance to Fleurhof’ variable. The negative beta coefficient indicates that the property value of properties after the development witnessed an increase in property value in comparison to property values of properties sold before formal construction began on the housing development. This shows that, following the announcement that the integrated residential development was to be constructed in 2009, property owners might have raised concerns about the possible negative externalities that may result from the development.

Mnisi & Karam • The impact of the integrated residential development...

51

However, once construction began, the development was viewed positively, and such concerns may have decreased as property values located right next to the development had an increased property value. The reason for this may be that, before the start of the development, the land may have been used as a dump site that would change the environment of the neighbourhood, thus impacting on property values negatively.

In addition, the study discovered that the presence of locational amenities such as a police station and a school in close proximity to properties impacts on property values negatively. This may be because the quality of the schools in the selected suburbs may not be good quality schools. Thus, the schools may be viewed as a disamenity rather than an amenity. Furthermore, the police stations may be perceived negatively by residents, as they may increase noise and traffic into the area. This is why people may prefer to be located further away from the police station.

6. conclUSIonAlthough the results of this study may not be generalised and may not be easily adapted to other subsidised affordable housing developments across South Africa, as the study is focused on Fleurhof, literature dictates that minor differences in the neighbourhood such as the locality and the type of housing development may change the results of the impact of the housing development on property values (Woo, 2014: 39). The study may help understand the effect of subsidised affordable developments on surrounding communities. A change in the general perspective of subsided affordable housing developments may also see a change in the overall impact on property values.

Table 5: Summary of results on property values

Model Property values Model 1 – Suburb All suburbs Negative

Meadowlands East Zone 1 NegativeFlorida Negative Orlando West Negative

Model 2 – Construction time Pre-construction (2001-2010) Negative Post-construction (2011-2017 Positive

Results in Table 5 show that the subsidised affordable housing development had a negative impact on surrounding house prices in all the suburbs, however, at varying levels, indicating subsidised affordable housing developments impact different neighbourhoods differently. For instance, Meadowlands East Zone 1 had a higher impact in comparison to Florida with a lower impact. This may be due to the difference in the socio-economic

Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

52

standing of the two suburbs. Meadowlands East Zone 1 is a lower income suburb and Florida is more affluent. Furthermore, the suburb of Florida may have taken more measures such as building higher fences and hiring more security companies around their houses and in the neighbourhood in an effort to keep themselves safe from potential perceived negative externalities that the residents may have thought the subsidised affordable housing development may bring such as an increase in crime.

The negative impact of the housing development suggests that bonded property home owners perceive subsidised affordable housing development as an undesirable development rather than an instrument for poverty de-concentration and housing assistance for the marginalised citizens of South Africa. In addition, as noted with Low-Income Housing Tax Credit housing developments in America, the negative impact of the development on property values indicates that the development is built in a prosperous housing market (Woo, 2014: 50). Because of the increased NIMBY concerns preeminent about the subsidised affordable housing development, the development faces residential segregation, with many of the residents preferring to be located further away from the development and disagreeing with a mix of income backgrounds in one neighbourhood. The negative perspective of the housing development, in turn, reflects negatively on the property values of bonded properties surrounding the development.

The results of this study showed that the property values in the selected suburbs are uniquely impacted by the independent variables (housing attributes) selected in the study. For instance, the distance to the locational amenities such as the police station and the clinic proved to decrease a property’s value the closer a property was to that amenity. In addition, an increase of Black people into a neighbourhood proved to impact on a property’s value positively, indicating that it may not be Black people moving into a neighbourhood that raises concerns, but rather the socio-economic background of the individuals moving into the neighbourhood, as noted with the distance to Fleurhof, who bring a different socio-economic image into the neighbourhood.

However, the results of the second model, specifically post-construction (2011-2017) of the subsidised affordable housing development results, indicate that the neighbourhoods may have witnessed increased property values, despite the fact that the subsidised housing development of Fleurhof was being constructed. This shows that, as the development was being constructed (and still in the process of completion), residents have grown accustomed to the development and have realised that the development does not hold the characteristics of older subsidised affordable housing developments such as the construction and poor quality of housing structures. The properties used in this model may have

Mnisi & Karam • The impact of the integrated residential development...

53

viewed this development as a neighbourhood revitalisation project rather than a deterioration of the neighbourhood.

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How to cite: Kasim, O. F., Alabi, A. M. & Wusu, S. 2020. Risk assessment for hazard exposure and its consequences on housing construction

sites in Lagos, Nigeria. Acta Structilia, 27(1), pp. 59-84.

© Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Published by the UFShttp://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as

Research articles • Navorsingsartikels

oluwasinaayomi faith kasim*

Dr Oluwasinaayomi Faith Kasim* (corresponding author), Lecturer, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria. Phone: +2348055607009, Email: <kasimfaith@gmail.com> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5985-1534

adekunle moruf alabi

Dr Adekunle Moruf Alabi, Lecturer, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria. Phone: +2348034385874, Email: <morufalabi@ymail.com> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0137-7390

Sunday Wusu

Mr Sunday Wusu, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria. Phone: +2349093481560, Email: <sundaywusu2020@gmail.com>

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/24150487/as27i1.3

ISSN: 1023-0564

e-ISSN: 2415-0487

Acta Structilia 2020 27(1): 59-84

rISk aSSeSSment for Hazard expoSUre and ItS conSeqUenceS on HoUSIng conStrUctIon SIteS In lagoS, nIgerIa

Peer reviewed and revised March 2020

Published June 2020

*The authors declared no conflict of interest for the article or title

abStractDespite housing construction’s economic contribution, the nature of work done is well acknowledged as risky to execute because of the occupational accidents and work-related hazards to which workers are exposed. Most of the workers experience hazards, owing largely to inadequate or lack of safety infrastructure and mechanisms for protective gear. This article examines varying levels of hazards to which workers are exposed at housing construction sites in Lagos, Nigeria. A mixed methods research was used to collect the necessary data for the study. From the total number of 511 residential building construction sites identified, simple random sampling technique was used to select 255 (50%) of the buildings. A questionnaire was administered to the supervisors on each site to obtain information on the exposure of hazards on housing construction sites. In addition, one month’s data on incidents of near miss, accident and fatal cases were obtained from construction managers/supervisors for each site. The data was analysed with frequencies, percentages and inferential statistics. Construction workers are exposed to multifaceted hazards. Roughly 91% of the respondents had witnessed

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hazards of varying degrees. Paired t-test values showed that, on average, 25.3 more near misses and 12.4 more accidents happened monthly on sites supervised by individuals/owners than on sites supervised by trained supervisors. The Pearson’s r test (r = -0.705) showed that not enough first-aid kits were provided on sites to meet the needs of workers. Proper safety mechanisms to ensure strict adherence to safety rules and regulations at construction sites must be developed and enforced.Keywords: Hazards, construction health and safety, housing construction, risks assessment matrix, Lagos

abStrakOndanks die ekonomiese bydrae van behuisingskonstruksie, word die aard van die werk wat gedoen word, as riskant beskou omdat daar werksongelukke en gevare is waaraan werkers blootgestel word. Die meeste werkers ervaar gevare weens grootliks onvoldoende of gebrek aan veiligheidsinfrastruktuur en meganismes vir beskermingsuitrustings. Hierdie artikel ondersoek verskillende vlakke van gevare waaraan werknemers op die konstruksieterreine in Lagos, Nigerië, blootgestel word. Navorsing met gemengde metodes is gebruik om die nodige gegewens vir die studie te versamel. Uit die 511 geïdentifiseerde konstruksieterreine vir residensiële geboue, is ’n eenvoudige ewekansige steekproefnemingstegniek gebruik om 255 (50%) van die geboue te selekteer. ’n Vraelys is aan die toesighouers op elke terrein gegee om inligting te bekom oor die blootstelling van gevare op behuisingskonstruksieterreine. Ook een maand se data oor voorvalle van byna-misse, ongelukke en noodlottige gevalle is verkry van elke deelnemende konstruksiebestuurder/toesighouer. Die data is geanaliseer met frekwensies, persentasies en inferensiële statistieke. Konstruksiewerkers word blootgestel aan veelsydige gevare. Ongeveer 91% van die respondente het in verskillende mate gevare gesien. Gepaarde t-toetswaardes het getoon dat gemiddeld 25.3 meer byna-misse en 12.4 meer ongelukke maandeliks plaasgevind het op persele wat deur individue/eienaars onder toesig was as op terreine onder toesig van opgeleide toesighouers. Die Pearson r-toets (r = -0.705) het getoon dat daar nie genoeg noodhulpkissies op die terrein beskikbaar is om in die behoeftes van werkers te voorsien nie. Behoorlike veiligheidsmeganismes om streng nakoming van veiligheidsreëls en regulering op konstruksieterreine te verseker, moet ontwikkel en toegepas word.Sleutelwoorde: Gevare, konstruksie-gesondheid en -veiligheid, konstruksie van huise, risiko-assesseringsmatriks, Lagos

1. IntrodUctIonThe housing construction industry is one of the largest employers globally and can contribute up to $10.5 trillion to the world economy by 2023 (MGI, 2017: online; NAPBHR, [n.d.]: online). It employs approximately 7% of the global work force (ILO, 2005: 6; MGI, 2017: online; Rhodes, 2019: 3-4) or 180 million people, and it is predicted to account for approximately 10% of the Global Domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (Murie, 2007: 6-7; Durdyev & Ismail, 2012: 884-885; Nieuwenkamp, 2016: online). Owing to its substantial contribution to the GDP of the vast majority of nations, the development of the housing construction industry has been viewed as the foundation for contemporary and future economic growth and social development (Agbola, 2005: 7-10; Kasim, 2018: 955-959).

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Despite its economic contribution, the nature of work done within residential building construction is well acknowledged as risky to execute because of the complexity of its activities and risky external and internal environments (Zou, Zhang & Wang, 2007: 602-603; Lette, Ambelu, Getahun & Mekonen, 2018: 58). The complexities of housing construction activities during execution expose workers to a plethora of hazards and generate enormous risks that may culminate into accidents if not well managed (Orji, Nwachukwu & Enebe, 2016: 282-283).

According to Okeola (2009), workers in the housing construction industry are three times more exposed to a variety of near misses, accidents and fatalities (Churcher & Alwani, 1996: 29-31; Orji et al., 2016: 282-285). The industry also accounts for 30%-40% of the world’s fatal injuries; 100,000 workforces are killed on sites every year (MGI, 2017: online; Lette et al., 2018: 57-58).

Absence of a centralised safety agency (Agwu, 2012: 213), inadequate or lack of safety infrastructure, regulations and mechanisms on sites, in the developing countries (Nigeria included), are responsible for the death of one person on site every five minutes (Takala et al., 2014: 326; United States Department of Labor, 2017: online). Prior to 2004, government-centred policies and programmes failed to eliminate the gap between housing need and supply in Lagos, Nigeria (Alabi & Ajide, 2011: 32-33). Post-2004, the Nigerian National Housing Policy allowed for approximately 90% of housing provision in Nigeria, especially Lagos, to be constructed and provided by private sector with its associated hazards in the poorly monitored construction industry sector in Nigeria (Alabi, Muraina & Kasim, 2018: 46-47).

Although a number of studies has been done on construction hazard and risk assessment in general (Babovic, 2009: 22-26; Oladinrin, Ogunsemi & Aje, 2012: 50-60; Zolfagharian Ressang, Irizarry, Nourbakhsh & Zin, 2011: 151-161; Orji et al., 2016: 282-289), there is a dearth of study on exposure to hazards specifically in the housing construction industry. The scarcity of scientific research on exposure to hazards in the housing construction industry highlights the need to assess the hazards and risks, taking into consideration the safety measures in place to reduce hazards. The purpose of this article is, therefore, to investigate the exposure to hazards and the consequences thereof on workers, working on housing construction sites in Lagos, Nigeria. Findings will be useful for all employers of construction workers, governmental and private employers, developers and other agencies that are involved in housing construction through the proffered safety measures towards mitigating hazard prevalence.

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2. lIteratUre revIeWTo understand hazard exposure and its consequences on housing construction sites in Lagos, Nigeria, it is important to introduce the current theory on hazard exposure concepts included in this article. The existing theory focuses on the concepts of human error, hazards, and vulnerability of workers in housing construction.

2.1 Housing construction workers and human errorsThe construction industry is an economically important industry in any country. The sector supply infrastructure and physical structures of a country provides basic needs such as housing for the population (Haupt & Harinarain, 2016: 80). The construction industry employs workers cutting across different occupations and trades. The categories of workers in typical housing construction include carpenters, masons, painters, electricians, machine operators (concrete mixer, crane, and soil compactor operators and forklift drivers), iron benders, plumbers, machinists (precision material worker who assemble or fabricate mechanical parts, pieces or products, using a variety of tools and equipment at construction sites), foremen and professionals such as architects, civil engineers, builders, foremen and urban planners. Jobs in the construction field require workers to hold various skills, from construction managers to floor installers. The skills are required as a gateway to the sector, but they can hardly protect the workers against hazards. The construction sector, including residential building construction sites, has a set of occupational hazards that are specific to the sector. Work done on construction sites is considered to be high risk and may result in occupational accidents that are mostly viewed as human-induced incidents or human error (Guo, Yiu & González, 2016: 5)

Human factors engineering is a relatively new engineering field dedicated towards understanding human interaction in the work environment such as executing construction activities (Abdelhamid & Everett, 2000: 54). Human factor models capture worker interaction best in behaviour models that portray workers as being the main cause of accidents. This approach studies the tendency of human beings to make errors under various situations and environmental conditions (Abdelhamid & Everett, 2000: 54-55). In the construction industry, human error is always or sometimes attributed to accidents at construction sites, even at adherence or non-adherence to safety rules (Babovic, 2009: 22; Guo et al., 2016: 5-6). When the label ‘human error’ is used, it sometimes refers to the processes and systematic factors that influence people’s behaviour and performance in any situation. Therefore, the scientific study of human error or failure should be concerned with the understanding of factors influencing the cognition, collaboration and behaviour of workers in a work environment (Woods & Cook, 2000).

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However, it is important to holistically analyse the work environment with its inherent unsafe characteristics and analyse the design of workplaces and tasks that do not consider human limitations before the blame on workplace mishap can be labelled as ‘human error’ (Abdelhamid & Everett, 2000: 54-55). Human factors engineering aims to achieve efficiency and better designed tasks, using appropriate tools, in a safe workplace, but it also acknowledges limitations of human physical and psychological composition and capabilities which, if not properly managed, can trigger latent hazards and inherent vulnerability (Breeding, 2011: online).

2.2 construction hazardsA hazard is a situation that poses a level of potential threat or risk to life, health, property, or environment (CCOHS, 2020: online). The vast majority of hazards are dormant or potential, with only a theoretical risk of harm; however, once a hazard becomes active, owing to the relationship between a person and the work environment, it can lead to accidents and emergency situations (Breeding, 2011: online). Hazard exposure is driven by any activity, situation or condition within the physical environment with the potential to cause harm, injury or death to persons, and damage to assets and the environment (Rausand, 2004). Cardona (2001) notes that hazard refers to a latent danger or vulnerability to an external risk factor from an exposed system or subject.

According to OSHA (2017), health hazards in the construction industry can be grouped under chemical, physical, and ergonomic hazards. Chemical hazards can affect the body via inhalation, ingestion, or skin absorption, including toxic gas from welding; fumes from dusts; burns from chemicals; skin irritation from cement and paints, as well as respiratory irritation from thinners and insulation materials (OSHA, 2017: 3-7). Physical hazards are noise, heat, vibration and radiation, including acute noise generation; acute vibration; electrocution; exposure to excessive heat, and exposure to hot or pressurised liquid (OSHA, 2017: 10-15). Ergonomic hazards include mainly manual handling of loads such as objects falling from a height; fall of workers from a scaffold; fall of workers from a roof or upper floor of a building; workers pierced by sharp objects; workers falling into unfenced excavation, and workers struck by earth-moving machines (OSHA, 2017: 27-29).

In the context of this article, a hazard is defined as any form of mishap or injury suffered by workers as related to specific occupational demands or job requirements on site.

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2.3 construction hazards managementScope, environment and working conditions on construction sites can trigger inherent hazards that could be managed, using safety management approaches. Inadequacies in the safety system could influence and/or lead to occupational accidents (Ford & Tetrick, 2011: 49-50; Andersson, 2012: 210-212). For example, poor work ethics and flagrant disobedience to safety rules and regulations by workers would lead to accidents, regardless of the existing safety management approach. Human- and, to a larger extent, non-human-related events are beyond control and prediction, as encapsulated in the safety management concept. Hence, as observed by Imriyas, Phen and Teo (2006: 272-274), estimation of exposure to hazards and the functionality of any occupational injury risks analysis in construction projects should be assessed, using two factors, namely a project’s safety management level and inherent hazard level (Imriyas et al., 2006). Figure 1 shows that, in construction safety management, inherent hazard level identification is fundamental, because unidentified hazards are the most unmanageable risks (Carter & Smith, 2006: 198).

Figure 1: Hazard versus safety trade-offSource: Adapted from Imriyas et al., 2006

As shown in Figure 1, unmanageable and unidentified hazards would gravitate a construction project towards the accident- and hazard-related zone, while informed safety measures would pull the construction activities towards the safety zone. In addition, when and where the safety management force is equal to the degree of hazard generated, the construction activities would be inclined towards the neutral zone. However, if the safety manage-ment structure is lower than the hazard level, the project would be driven towards the accident zone. Hence, the linkage and/or the assessment of a construction project hazard level and safety management structure prediction of occupational accidents inherent within the environment of a project.

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Bosher and Dainty (2011: 1-3) observe that inherent hazards could lead to risks and these identified risks could be minimised, transferred, shared, accepted or managed, but should never be ignored. Fundamentally, two phases are required in the control and management of construction hazards. First, the hazardous events prevention phase and, secondly, mitigating and adapting to the potential severity of hazards, if and when they occur (World Bank, 2013: 6-10). Varying degrees of hazards occur at construction sites. Their degree of severity or fatality is dependent on the safety measures taken by workers on site. At construction sites, preventive measures are taken for different probable types of hazards such as protective boots against piercing; protective helmet against fall impact on the head; nose mask to filter fumes and dust, and to protect against respiratory diseases, and so on (ILO, 1999: 79-83).

3. reSearcH metHodSThis study assessed the hazards faced by workers on housing construction sites in Eti-Osa, Lagos State, Nigeria, taking into consideration the level of exposure to, and the impact of the identified construction hazards. The study used a mixed methods design, in which qualitative and quantitative data are collected in parallel, analysed separately, and then merged (Creswell, 2014). A quantitative structured questionnaire survey enables researchers to generalise their findings from a sample of a population (Bryman, 2012: 232; Creswell, 2014). It also allows for descriptive and inferential statistical analysis (Naoum, 2013: 104). In this study, hazard exposure records of housing construction sites were used to build the theory on hazard exposure, predicting that experience of ‘high-risk’ hazards will negatively affect the health of workers on housing construction sites in Nigeria. The questionnaire assessed the level of hazards experienced by workers. The reason for collecting both quantitative and qualitative data is to elaborate on specific findings from the breakdown of the hazards incident records, such as similar ‘high-risk’ hazards experienced from the respondents’ groups (Creswell & Plano-Clark, 2007).

3.1 Sampling method and response rateFrom a preliminary survey by the authors, a total of 511 new residential building projects, at different stages of construction, were identified in the study area. Random sampling was utilised to select 255 of the residential buildings under construction. From these, at least one worker acting as supervisor/construction manager or owners’ representative from each site was targeted to participate (Alvi, 2016: 35). The survey was undertaken with a sample of 255. The sample size for research done in construction-related populations was calculated in accordance with the table recommended by

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Krejcie and Morgan (1970: 608). From the table, the recommended sample size for a population of 500 is 217, and for 550, 226. This recommendation validates the sample size of 255 as efficient for the population of 511 in Table 1.

Table 1: Sample and response rate

Localities in Eti­Osa LGA

Sample frame

Sample size 50%

Ownership Responses Response rate (%)Individual Corporate

Ado/Langbasa/Badore 164 82 65 17 82 100

Ajah/Sangotedo 91 45 38 7 45 100Ajiran/Osapa 101 51 35 16 51 100IkateLekki 87 43 37 6 43 100Ikoyi 8 4 1 3 4 100Maroko Okun Alfa 48 24 19 5 24 100

VI/Oniru 12 6 4 2 6 100Total 511 255 199 56 255

3.2 data collectionStructured questionnaires were used to collect data from 255 construction managers or owners’ representatives (supervisors) working on new residential building construction sites in Eti-Osa, Lagos, Nigeria, from 2 to 17 November 2016.

The questionnaire consisted of five sections. The first section, on the respondents’ demographic profile, obtained personal information on age, educational level, and occupation. The second section set 14 tick-box options on hazard experiences to obtain if and how often workers experience hazard situations on site. Section three set one Likert-scale question with 18 items on the construct ‘exposure to hazard’ and section four set one Likert-scale question with 18 items on the construct ‘consequence of hazard exposure’. Participants were requested to rate the level of frequency and the level of consequence on the statements regarding hazard exposure on housing construction sites. Section five contained four tick-box questions and one Likert-scale question with 5 items on the construct ‘control strategies’. Participants were requested to rate their level of agreement on statements regarding safety management of hazards on site. The results from these measurements form the items used in the descriptive analysis, matrix analysis, and the inferential statistics. To reduce the respondents’ bias, closed-ended questions were preferred for sections two and three (Akintoye & Main, 2007: 601).

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In addition to the questionnaire survey, supervisors also provided a tabulated record sheet of one month’s data (2 November to 1 December 2016) on incidents of near misses, accidents and fatalities in all the sampled sites. All the 255 copies of the questionnaire administered were returned and used for analysis. The authors also recorded their own observations on safety management from the sites sampled.

3.3 analysis method and how to interpret dataThe Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 24 was used to determine the frequency and consequences of hazard exposure, by using descriptive and inferential statistics (Pallant, 2013). The frequencies and/or percentages of responses were generated and reported, in order to analyse the respondents’ profile, supervisor status and exposure to hazards, incidents records and safety management structure.

For the analysis on the frequency, and consequences of hazard exposure, a 5-point Likert scale was used to measure how strongly respondents felt regarding the statements in the Likert-scale constructs. Likert-scale rankings are effective where numbers can be used to quantify the results of measuring behaviours, attitudes, preferences, and even perceptions (Wegner, 2012: 11; Naoum, 2013: 89). For the purposes of analysis, it is important to note that the following scale measurement was used regarding mean scores (MSs), where 1 = very low/insignificant; 2 = low/minor; 3 = regular/moderate; 4 = high/major, and 5 = very high/catastrophic. Data was analysed, using frequencies and MS rankings.

To identify the major risks from hazard exposure, a risk matrix analysis was done to rank the 25 initial item scores on the basis of frequency and consequence. The matrix assessment is the multiplication of hazard exposure and its consequence: (hazard exposure x consequence). Only one score for each item (as labelled) was considered to determine the influence of each item in the row on the statement in the column. For example, both consequences and occurrences range from 1 to 5. The risk matrix score for a specific hazard is the product of the rate of occurrence (row value) and consequence (column value). Items in the matrix were weighted (scored) on a 5-point Likert scale were 1 = very low risk; 2 = low risk; 2 = moderate risk; 3 = high risk; 4 = high risk, and 5 = very high risk. They were then classified according to their risk level where 1-4 = ‘low’; 5-15 = ‘medium’, and 16-25 = ‘high’, stipulated in the risk matrix assessment model of Zolfagharian (Zolfagharian, Nourbakhsh, Irizarry, Ressang & Gheisari, 2012: 1753) (see Table 2).

To analyse the hazards incidence records, a paired samples t-test with p=0.05 was done to compare the mean of cases, and to find any

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correlations between the cases examined (Ross & Willson, 2017: 17). A Pearson’s correlation test with p=0.05 was done to find any significant relationship between workers’ need for first-aid kits, and the provision of such kits by housing construction site managers.

Table 2: Risk level classification of construction hazards

Consequence Hazard and risk classification matrix 5 5 (M) 10 (M) 15 (H) 20 (H) 25 (H)4 4 (L) 8 (M) 12 (M) 16 (H) 20 (H)3 3 (L) 6 (M) 9 (M) 12 (M) 15 (H)2 2 (L) 4 (L) 6 (M) 8 (M) 10 (M)1 1 (L) 2 (L) 3 (L) 4 (L) 5 (M)Occurrence 1 2 3 4 5L = low; M = medium; H = high

Source: Adapted from Zolfagharian et al. (2012: 1753)

3.4 limitationsOwing to time constraint, focus-group discussions could not be organised in order to identify the sociocultural dimension influencing hazards in construction sites. A section of Lagos and construction activity was also sampled; this may not be a true reflection of construction activities in Nigeria.

4. reSUltS

4.1 respondents’ demographicsTable 3 displays the demographic profile of the participants. It is obvious that the majority of the respondents were foremen (19.4%), masons (16.9), carpenters (14.1%), and iron benders (11.4%); the professionals (architects, civil engineers, builders, and urban planners) constituted only 9.4% of the respondents. The results show that the respondents represented all relevant workers in the housing construction.

The highest number (59%) of the respondents had a secondary school education (36%) or a primary school education (23%), and 12% had a technical college qualification; only 8% had a tertiary qualification. Furthermore, the analysis of the respondents’ academic qualifications showed that 20% of the respondents did not have any formal education, especially the carpenters and the painters; they were trained through the artisanship system, the predominant informal training arrangement for tradesmen and artisans in Nigeria (Sanni & Alabi, 2008: 17; Adewale, Siyanbola & Siyanbola, 2014: 37-38). In addition, 19% of the foremen did not receive any formal education. Analysis of the respondents’ age showed that 55% were younger

Kasim, Alabi & Wusu • Risk assessment for hazard exposure

69

than 40 years, except for the machinists, foremen, and machine operators, the majority of whom were above 40 years of age. From the information on the academic qualifications of the respondents, it can be inferred that the majority of the supervisors possessed satisfactory education qualifications to understand the questionnaire and supply data for this study.

Table 3: Respondents’ profileDemographic

Freq

uenc

y (N

=

255)

Tota

l %

Occupation / Trade

Age (years) Educational level

15-39 (%)

40­59 (%)

No formal education (%)

Primary (%)

Secondary (%)

Technical college (%)

Tertiary education (%)

Carpenter 26 (72) 10 (28) 19 (52) 12 (33) 4 (11) 1 (4) 0 36 14.1 Mason 30 (68) 14 (32) 7 (17) 14 (32) 21 (49) 1 (2) 0 43 16.9 Painter 4 (39) 7 (61) 6 (55) 3 (27) 2 (18) 0 0 11 4.3 Machine operator

6 (39) 9 (61) 0 2 (13) 8 (53) 4 (27) 1 (7) 15 5.9

Electrician 10 (47) 12 (53) 0 3 (12) 17 (78) 2 (9) 0 22 8.6 Plumber 9 (52) 8 (48) 1 (5) 2 (12) 4 (24) 10 (59) 0 17 6.7 Foremen 19 (38) 31 (62) 10 (19) 14 (28) 19 (39) 7 (14) 0 50 19.6 Iron bender 21 (72) 8 (28) 8 (28) 9 (31) 12 (41) 0 0 29 11.4 Machinist 2 (25) 6 (75) 0 0 6 (75) 2 (25) 0 8 3.1 Professionals 15 (65) 9 (35) 0 0 0 5 (20) 19 (80) 24 9.4Total 142 (55) 114 (45) 51 (20) 59 (23) 93 (36) 32 (12) 20 (8) 255 100

4.2 Supervisor hazard experienceTable 4 shows the status of supervisors as well as if and how often they experienced hazard situations on site. A vast majority (78%) of the residential building construction activities were supervised by owners (private individuals) or appointed cronies of the owners. As observed, most of these persons (74.3%) do not have prerequisite qualifications to supervise and manage housing construction projects.

Registered construction companies were involved in the construction of 22% of the residential building projects, and almost 98.2% employed qualified personnel to supervise work on site. Construction activities are laden with hazards of varying magnitude and the level of exposure varies among the workers. Analysis of the respondents’ experience with hazards showed that the majority of them (91.1%) had witnessed one form of hazard or other, while 9.9% had not witnessed any construction work-related hazard. From the total number of those who had witnessed hazards previously, 68.4% and 31.6% were supervised by persons without prerequisite qualifications in individual and corporate construction sites, respectively. A vast majority of respondents experienced hazards occasionally (45.5%) and frequently (47.2%).

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Table 4: Supervisor status and exposure to hazards

Supervisors Category Frequency (N=255)

%

Ownership Individual 199 78Corporate 56 22

Qualification (individual) Qualified 51 25.6Not qualified 148 74.3

Qualification (corporate) Qualified 55 98.2Not qualified 1 1.8

Experienced hazards (overall) Yes 230 90.1No 25 9.9

Experienced hazards frequency (overall) Barely 19 7.4Occasionally 116 45.4Frequently 120 47.2

Exposed to hazards (overall) Individual 180 70.5Corporate 49 29.5

Exposed to hazards by qualification (individual) Qualified 63 31.6Not qualified 136 68.4

Exposed to hazards by qualification (corporate) Qualified 34 60.7Not qualified 22 39.3

4.3 ranking of exposure to hazards and its consequences

Table 5 shows the ranking of the level of exposure to hazards as well as the consequences of the exposure, as perceived by the respondents. The majority of the respondents (53.7%) perceived very high exposure to objects falling from a height, and 49.3% indicated that falling objects from a height (MS = 3.99) constituted a major health risk to workers.

With an average MS of 3.24, results in Table 5 show that respondents perceived regular exposure to hazards on construction sites. With MS ratings above 4.0, respondents perceived high exposure to ‘objects falling from height’ (MS = 4.25) and ‘skin irritation from cement, and paint’ (MS = 4.17). The majority of the respondents (85.6%) indicated that ‘skin irritation from exposure to cement and paint’ (MS = 4.14) is a major and sometimes catastrophic health risk to workers. Almost three quarters of the respondents (73.1%) indicated high to very high levels of exposure to noise pollution. With MS ratings above 3.5, respondents are regularly exposed to ‘piercing by objects’ (MS = 3.79); ‘air pollution’ (MS = 3.67), and ‘falling from a roof’ (MS = 3.59). More than half of the respondents (60%) also indicated that ‘falling from a roof’ (MS = 3.62) and ‘piercing by sharp objects’ (MS = 3.57) may pose a major health risk to workers.

Kasim, Alabi & Wusu • Risk assessment for hazard exposure

71

Tabl

e 5:

Res

pond

ents

’ per

cept

ion

on h

azar

d ex

posu

re a

nd it

s co

nseq

uenc

es

Expo

sure

N=2

55 (%

)C

onse

quen

ce N

=255

(%)

Haz

ard

Very

low

Low

Reg

ular

Hig

hVe

ry h

igh

MS

Ran

kIn

sign

ifica

ntM

inor

Mod

erat

eM

ajor

Cat

astro

phic

MS

Ran

k

12

34

51

23

45

Obj

ect f

allin

g he

ight

0

10

(4.0

)51

(2

0.1)

57

(22.

2)13

7

(53.

7)4.

251

9

(3.7

)47

(1

8.6)

125

(4

9.3)

72

(28.

4)3.

992

Fallin

g fro

m a

Sca

ffold

6

(2

.4)

25

(9.8

)11

1

(43.

5)89

(3

5.0)

24

(9.3

)3.

398

5

(1.8

)19

(7

.6)

120

(4

7.1)

82

(32.

1)29

(1

1.4)

3.43

5

Fallin

g fro

m a

roof

35

(1

3.7)

70

(27.

6)11

4

(44.

5)36

(1

4.2)

3.59

736

(1

4.3)

66

(25.

7)11

1

(43.

6)42

(1

6.4)

3.62

3

Pier

cing

by

obje

cts

16

(6.3

)72

(2

8.4)

118

(4

6.1)

49

(19.

2)3.

794

32

(12.

6)91

(3

5.7)

85

(33.

3)47

(1

8.4)

3.57

4

Noi

se p

ollu

tion

30

(11.

7)39

(1

5.2)

106

(4

1.7)

80

(31.

4)3.

923

35

(13.

8)57

(2

2.4)

41

(15.

9)69

(2

7.2)

53

(20.

7)3.

187

Elec

trocu

tion

118

(4

6.5)

20

(7.7

)74

(2

9.2)

14

(5.3

)29

(1

1.3)

2.27

1111

2

(43.

8)77

(3

0.3)

58

(22.

6)5

(2

.1)

3

(1.2

)1.

8612

Fall i

nto

trenc

h 10

8

(42.

3)94

(3

6.7)

37

(14.

5)13

(5

.2)

3

(1.2

)1.

8513

119

(4

6.6)

86

(33.

7)30

(1

1.7)

10

(4.0

)10

(4

.0)

1.84

13

Stru

ck m

achi

ne10

5

(41.

1)75

(2

9.4)

54

(21.

0)21

(8

.4)

1.96

1213

5

(53.

1)27

(1

0.4)

64

(25.

0)29

(1

1.5)

1.94

11

Toxic

gas

form

wel

ding

56

(22.

2)78

(3

0.5)

40

(15.

5)52

(2

0.5)

29

(11.

3)2.

6810

70

(27.

3)94

(3

7)51

(2

0.2)

25

(9.9

)15

(5

.8)

2.29

10

Air

pollu

tion

14

(5.4

)15

(5

.9)

81

(31.

7)75

(2

9.4)

70

(27.

4)3.

675

20

(8.0

)63

(2

4.7)

79

(31.

1)54

(2

1.1)

39

(15.

1)3.

119

Burn

s fro

m c

hem

ical

s14

(5

.8)

82

(32.

0)72

(2

8.2)

38

(14.

9)49

(1

9.1)

3.10

916

(6

.2)

80

(31.

5)65

(2

5.3)

43

(17)

51

(19.

9)3.

128

Skin

irrit

atio

n fro

m c

emen

t, pa

int

10

(3.9

)28

(1

1.2)

125

(4

8.9)

92

(36.

1)4.

172

1

(0.4

)7

(2

.6)

29

(11.

4)13

4

(52.

4)84

(3

3.2)

4.14

1

Irrita

tion

from

thin

ners

and

in

sula

tion

mat

eria

ls1

(0

.4)

5

(2.0

)11

4 (4

4.7)

108

(42.

3)27

(1

0.6)

3.60

615

(6

.0)

16

(6.3

)10

1

(39.

7)10

8

(42.

1)15

(6

.0)

3.36

6

Tota

l3.

243.

03

Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

72

Owing to the specialised nature of work to be done in electrical wiring and installation of electrical equipment in buildings, in addition to the fact that most of the work was done without active connections to electricity gridlines, 46.5% of the respondents considered exposure to electrocution to be very low and 43.8% of the respondents adjudged the consequence to be insignificant. Exposure to ‘fall into trench’ (MS = 1.85) and ‘struck by a machine’ (MS = 1.96) were rated very low, showing that at housing construction sites the consequences of exposure to these two hazards (MS = 1.84; 1.94) is insignificant.

4.4 risk matrix resultsAdopting the computation in Table 2, the observed risk matrix assessment shows the classification level of hazard exposure and its consequences in Table 6. With classification levels from 16 to 20, ‘fall of object from a height’, ‘fall of workers from a roof or upper floor of a building’, ‘acute noise generation’, ‘exposure to excessive heat’, and ‘skin irritation from cement and paint’ were classified as ‘high-risk’ hazards. Experience of these high-risk hazards will have a major effect on the workers’ health.

Table 6: Risk level classification matrix

Hazard Exposure Consequences

Haz

ard

occu

rrenc

e

Ris

k le

vel

Very

low

Low

Aver

age

Hig

h

Very

hig

h

Insi

gnifi

cant

Min

or

Mod

erat

e

Maj

orC

atas

troph

ic

1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5Fall of object from a height 5 4 20 HFall of workers from a scaffold 3 3 9 MFall of workers from a roof or upper floor of a building

4 4 16 H

Pierced by sharp objects 4 3 12 MAcute noise generation 4 4 16 HAcute vibration 3 3 9 MElectrocution 1 1 1 LFalling into unfenced excavation 1 1 1 LStruck by earth-moving machine 1 1 1 LToxic gas from welding 2 2 4 LToxic fumes from dusts 3 3 9 MHot or pressurised liquid 1 1 1 LExposure to excessive heat 4 4 16 HBurns from chemicals 2 2 4 LSkin irritation from cement and paint 4 4 16 HRespiratory irritation from thinners and insulation material

3 4 12 M

L = low; M = medium; H = high

Kasim, Alabi & Wusu • Risk assessment for hazard exposure

73

4.5 Hazard incidents resultsTable 7 shows the records for near misses, accidents and fatal incidents recorded for the sampled housing construction sites. Supervisors recorded 1,213 hazard-related incidents for one month, showing that workers are exposed to 40 hazard experiences daily.

Incident records also indicated that 631 near misses had been recorded (176 cases from private and 455 cases from corporate sites). Approximately 380 actual accidents had happened (257 cases from private and 120 cases from corporate sites); 205 fatal cases were recorded (122 cases from private and 83 cases from corporate sites). Falling objects from a height (249); piercing by sharp object (186); workers falling from scaffolds (175) and/or from roof or upper floor (155); exposure to excessive heat (143), and burns from chemicals (112) were hazards that occurred the most.

Table 7: Hazard incidents record

Hazard Individual supervisors Corporate supervisors

Accident Near miss

Fatal Total Accident Near miss

Fatal Total

Object falling from height 53 31 27 111 17 102 19 138Worker falling from a scaffold

37 19 11 67 15 65 28 108

Worker falling from a roof 50 23 18 91 16 38 10 64Piercing by objects 46 17 32 95 13 72 6 91Electrocution 6 6 0 12 3 13 0 16Fall into unfenced trench 5 4 1 10 3 12 0 15Struck by earth-moving machine

0 11 0 11 11 12 1 24

Machine contact overhead cables

1 6 0 7 3 6 0 9

Hot/pressurised liquid 17 23 11 51 13 22 3 38Exposure to excessive heat 24 22 13 59 18 61 5 84Burns from chemicals 18 14 9 41 8 52 11 71Total 257 176 122 555 117 455 83 658

Table 8 shows the t-test results on the mean difference between incidents reported by individual/owner and corporate supervisors. There was a significant difference between scores reported for near misses by individual and corporate supervisors (t=-3.322, p<0.008). The results show that, on average, 25.3 more near misses happened on sites supervised by individuals/owners than on sites supervised by trained people (95% CI [-42.37, -8.35]).

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Table 8: Paired samples test of incidents at the construction sitesPaired differences t df

*Sig

. (2­

taile

d)

Mean Std. deviation

Std. error mean

95% Confidence interval of the difference

Lower Upper

Pair 1 Near miss individual – Near miss corporate

-25.36364 25.31905 7.63398 -42.37321 -8.35406 -3.322 10 0.008

Pair 2 Accident individual – Accident corporate

12.45455 16.15155 4.86988 1.60378 23.30531 2.557 10 0.028

Pair 3 Fatal individual – Fatal corporate

3.54545 10.43421 3.14603 -3.46434 10.55525 1.127 10 0.286

*significant at 0.05

There was also a significant difference between scores for accidents reported by individual and corporate supervisors (t=2.557, p<0.028). The results show that, on a monthly average, 12.4 more accidents happened on sites supervised by individuals/owners than on sites supervised by trained people (95% CI [1.60, 23.3]). However, there was no significant difference between scores for fatal incidents reported by individual and corporate supervisors (t=1.127, p<0.286). The results show that, on average, only 3.54 more fatal incidents happened on sites supervised by individuals/owners than on sites supervised by trained people (95% CI [-3.46, 10.5]).

4.6 Safety management to mitigate hazardsTable 9 shows the results on how safety control and management prevent hazards on sites sampled. Overall, only 7.8% of the supervisors provided regular medical orientation about the hazards to which construction workers were exposed in the course of carrying out day-to-day activities. The vast majority of the individual/owner supervisors (97.9%) did not provide any medical orientation drills to keep workers abreast of hazards associated with construction activities. Corporate supervisors (80.4%) and individual/owner supervisors (only 5.1%) provided safety officers on site to monitor compliance with safety regulations in the sampled housing construction sites.

Overall, more than half (64.7%) of the supervisors did not provide adequate emergency response plans and procedures to workers on site and 72.1% (the majority from the private/owner) of the supervisors did not provide the availability of on-the-job safety requirements and training to workers. Overall, only 5% of the supervisors indicated that they provided insurance cover for workers on sites. None of the workers from the private construction sites had insurance cover, while roughly 23.2% of the workers in corporate construction sites had insurance cover. In the sampled sites, only 27.4% had functional first-aid kits to respond to emergencies.

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Table 9: Safety management to prevent hazard

Safety management

Category Individual(N = 199)

% Corporate(N = 56)

% Frequency(N = 255)

%

Medical drills on site

Regular 6 3.1 14 25 20 7.8Irregular 195 97.9 42 75 237 92.9

First-aid kit Adequate 24 12.1 46 82.1 70 27.4Not adequate 175 87.9 10 17.9 185 72.5

Safety officer on site

Available 10 5.1 45 80.4 55 21.5Not available 189 94.9 11 19.6 200 78.4

On the job safety training

Yes 24 12.1 47 83.9 71 27.8No 175 87.9 9 16.1 184 72.1

Insurance Provided 0 0.0 13 23.2 13 5.0Not provided 199 100 43 76.8 242 94.9

Emergency response

Adequate 60 30.2 30 53.6 90 35.2Not adequate 139 69.8 26 46.4 165 64.7

In Table 10, the results from the Pearson’s test show that there was a significant relationship between the number of first-aid kits required by construction workers and the number of first-aid kits provided by construction site supervisors [r = -.705*, n = 255, p = .005]. This implies that the number of first-aid kits needed on site to respond to worker emergency situations and the number of first-aid kits provided by housing construction site supervisors are not enough. The situation was extremely dire in the private/owner-supervised sites, where 87.9% of the sites did not provide first-aid kits for the workers. Site observations, during the course of the study, showed that in most sites visited, especially in owner-/individual-supervised construction sites, workers were not kitted up with the required wear and assemblage necessary to perform tasks assigned and to ensure personal protection from hazards. In addition, only a few made it mandatory for visitors to wear personal protective equipment before accessing construction sites.

Table 10: Correlation between the need for and the provision of first-aid kits

First­aid kits required First­aid kits providedRequest for first-aid kits Pearson Corr. 1.000 -.705*

Sig. (1 tailed) .005N 255 255

Provision of first-aid kits Pearson Corr. -.705* 1.000Sig. (1 tailed) .005 -

N 255 255

* Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (1 tail test)

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5. dIScUSSIonHousing construction activities in Lagos, Nigeria, are initiated and executed by private individuals, corporate organisations and government as part of infrastructural facility and social support to the citizens. As shown in this study, safety measures expected to be enforced on site is a function of the executor and quality of supervision. It is clear from the study that most of the supervisors did not possess the required qualification to supervise construction projects. This has implications on the capacity to identify risks, reduce hazards and enforce hazard-abatement measures, in order to avert accidents.

Findings revealed that 91% of the respondents had direct or indirect exposure to hazards of varying degrees. There are hazards that presume high risks, due to high or very high level of exposure (occurrence) and a major or catastrophic consequence. In this study, exposure and consequence of object falling from a height; workers falling from roof top or upper floor; noise pollution; exposure to excessive heat and skin irritation as a result of contact with cement and paint were classified as ‘high-risk’ hazards. The hazards that pose ‘medium risks’, owing to average exposure and moderate consequences, include fall of workers from scaffold; piercing by sharp object, and poor ambient air quality with toxic atmospheric condition from fumes and dust particles. ‘Low-risk’ hazards identified with rare or very low exposure with insignificant or minor consequences were electrocution; fall into unfenced excavation; struck by earth-moving machine; toxic gas from welding; burn from chemicals, and uncontrolled release of pressurised liquid.

The leading causes of private sector worker fatality, as noted by the United States Department of Labor (2017: online), in the construction industry included falls, struck by object, electrocution, and caught-in/between (compressed by equipment or objects, and struck, caught, or crushed in collapsing structure, equipment, or material). The four causes were collectively responsible for more than half (58.6%) of construction worker deaths. Except for electrocution and caught-in/between, the hazards with high chance of occurrence and with major consequences identified in this study fall within the leading causes of fatality. In addition, electrocution may have a very low exposure as shown in this study, but its consequence is always fatal.

As shown in the study, more than any other workplace activity, work at a height is very risky and accounts for more injuries and deaths yearly on construction sites (Nadhim et al., 2016: 638-640; Hamalainen, Takala & Kiat, 2017: 11-13; Vanguard Newspaper, 2017: online). Falls from roofs is one of the leading causes of construction work-related fatalities (Toscano, 1997: 38-40;

Kasim, Alabi & Wusu • Risk assessment for hazard exposure

77

Nadhim et al., 2016: 640; United States Department of Labor, 2017: online). It accounts for roughly one-fifth of all housing construction fatalities (Bosher & Dainty, 2011: 2-3; Ede, 2011: 156). Fall accidents in construction projects, particularly building works, are the most frequent accidents (Parsons & Pizatella, 1985; Gillen et al., 1997: 650-651; Latief, Suraji, Nugroho & Arifuddin, 2011: 81-81; Nadhim et al., 2016: 638-640). Housing construction workers must adhere to stage hierarchy to all work at a height. These are the avoidance of work at height, the prevention of personnel from falling, and mitigation of effect of falls, should falls occur. For example, assembling of components should be done at ground level. However, if an activity must be done at a height, site managers must take appropriate measures to prevent workers from falling from a distance that could cause injury and fatality. The use of guard rails and scaffolding platforms to prevent falls and individual measures such as safety harnesses must be enforced.

A plethora of hazards is associated with scaffold use and misuse (Davies & Tomasin, 1996). These include slippery conditions on the platform; defects in the members of the scaffold/ladder; overloading of materials and workers on the platform, and the nature of the platform on which the scaffold/ladder rests. However, observation from the sampled sites showed that most of the scaffolds, especially in the private-owned housing construction sites, were makeshift and the majority of these were constructed/made from bamboo. The design factors, particularly adequacy of design, have been compromised. This increases vulnerability to hazards, regardless of the safety management structure in place.

Overall safety management structures on housing construction sites sampled do not adhere to environment and occupational health and safety regulations of Nigeria. For example, 72.5% of the sites did not have first-aid kits available for workers needed to respond to emergency situations. In the private-supervised sites, 87.9% of the sites did not provide first-aid kits for workers and only 0.5% had safety officers on site to monitor compliance with safety regulations. This non-compliance by the private construction supervisors may be as a result of additional cost to be incurred in engaging such safety professionals. Housing construction activities is a capital-intensive venture, where the proponents usually seek avenues to reduce cost (Agbola, 2005: 16; Turok, 2016: 235; Alabi et al., 2018: 47; Kasim, 2018: 958). However, cost reduction should not override the dignity in labour and value of human well-being and for human lives.

The provision of safe, hazard-proof construction sites is a function of the level of planning and decisions taken by qualified personnel appointed to supervise work on site. Supervisors are technically excellent at their job, owing to years of experience, coupled with the engagement of workers who are also highly skilled, in terms of getting something built correctly. However,

Acta Structilia 2020: 27(1)

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this level of competence is not a guarantee for safety and hazard abatement at the construction site. This is made more precarious when the majority of the supervisors are not qualified and may have the general notion, as shown in this study, that the construction site is unsafe and the hazards and risks, to which the workers are exposed, are the usual dictates of the work environment (ILO, 2014: 2; Guo et al., 2016: 5-6; Lette et al., 2018: 57). Therefore, nearly all construction hazards leading to accidents occur as a result of negligence on the part of the supervisor to impose supervisor-worker responsibilities. The supervisors’ laxity transfers hazard to workers on site, because the supervisor is charged with the responsibility of overall site safety. The deficiency in the enforcement of construction sites’ health, safety and environment provisions manifests in workers carrying out responsibilities in blatant disregard for safety measures, by using inadequate and unsafe equipment in unsafe site conditions, as shown in this study.

6. conclUSIon and recommendatIonSWorkers are prone to different construction work-related hazards in Lagos, Nigeria. The hazards have been identified and, with the probability of occurrences and consequences of impact, classified as high-, medium- and low-risk hazards. To correctly avoid fatalities caused by these risk hazards, proper safety mechanisms are needed. In this study, these mechanisms include qualified professionals as site supervisors, the enforcement of safety regulations on the sites, and the usage of appropriate personal protective equipment for specific jobs.

Supervisors have the highest influence on site safety, because they coordinate, direct and monitor the work of all the subsectors within the construction sites. It should be mandatory for housing construction projects to be supervised by professionals with the requisite knowledge of construction hazards and safety measures. The enforcement of compliance with specific safety regulations and rules for different construction activities in the context of construction methods, materials and execution is very important.

Adequate and continuous training for construction workers through workshops, regular site meetings focusing on safety must be adopted. Laws regarding employers’ responsibility towards employees for every site construction activity must be enacted and enforced. It is expected that workers and visitors alike in the housing construction sites should undergo a safety drill and be supplied with head-protection gear and mandatory head-protection signs and footwear displayed around the site, especially at private construction sites. For the sustainability of the contribution that housing construction projects make to the overall economy of Nigeria, a centralised regulatory framework to ensure that safety rules are acquired for every construction activity should be implemented.

Kasim, Alabi & Wusu • Risk assessment for hazard exposure

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7. acknoWledgementSThe authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their enlightening, constructive, and useful comments on the manuscript.

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How to cite: Vosloo, P. & Young, G. 2020. Isivivane, Freedom Park: A critical analysis of the relationship between commemoration, meaning and landscape

design in post-apartheid South Africa. Acta Structilia, 27(1), pp. 85-118.

© Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Published by the UFShttp://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as

graham Young

Graham A. Young, (Senior Lecturer - retired), Department of Architecture, University of Pretoria, South Africa. Phone: 0824621491, e-mail: <grahamyounglandarch@gmail.com> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5052-7877

piet vosloo

Emeritus Prof. Piet Vosloo, Department of Architecture, University of Pretoria, South Africa. Phone: 0823744497, e-mail: <piet@kwpcreate.com> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8639-1254

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/24150487/as27i1.4

ISSN: 1023-0564

e-ISSN: 2415-0487

Acta Structilia 2020 27(1): 85-118

ISIvIvane, freedom park: a crItIcal analYSIS of tHe relatIonSHIp betWeen commemoratIon, meanIng and landScape deSIgn In poSt-apartHeId SoUtH afrIca

Peer reviewed and revised March 2020

Published June 2020

*The authors declared no conflict of interest for the article or title

abStractAt the dawn of democracy in 1994, the nation was seeking a new identity and for many South Africans it was to be an identity based on their African culture and tradition. Politicians were seeking ways to commemorate those who had lost their lives in conflicts leading up to the first democratic elections when the African National Congress (ANC) came into power. In attempting to achieve this, the Department of Arts and Culture initiated several legacy and heritage projects, including the Isivivane, a memorial place at Freedom Park in the City of Tshwane. This article determines the effectiveness of landscape design in communicating the intent and meaning of commemorative places in a multicultural post-apartheid society. In this article, the Isivivane is presented as a case study and the research survey has been used to gauge the visitors’ experience and perception of the Isivivane. Based on the results of a quantitative questionnaire, underpinned by theories rooted in phenomenological interpretation

Review articles • Oorsigartikels

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and landscape narrative, the article confirms that peoples’ experience and perception of the Isivivane are influenced by its design and that its landscape features are significant in evoking a response that enabled visitors to identify with the place and assign individual and collective meaning to it. The argument is supported by current theories of commemoration and meaning derived through landscape design. The implications of the study are useful and can potentially open doors for further studies that delve deeper into an understanding of the contribution that landscape design makes in the conceptualisation of commemorative places in a pluralistic and politically charged South Africa.keywords: Landscape design, memorials, commemoration, Freedom Park, post-apartheid South Africa, Isivivane

abStrakMet die aanvang van demokrasie in 1994, het die volk gestreef na ’n nuwe identiteit en vir baie moes dit ’n identiteit wees gebaseer op hul Afrika-kultuur en -tradisies. Politici het ook maniere gesoek om die te herdenk wat hul lewens tydens konflikte in die aanloop tot die eerste demokratiese verkiesings, waarna die ANC aan bewind gekom het, verloor het. In die strewe om dit te bereik, het die Departement van Kuns en Kultuur verskeie nalatenskap- en erfenisprojekte geïnisieer, insluitend die Isivivane, ’n gedenkteken by Freedom Park in die Stad Tshwane. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die effektiwiteit van landskapontwerp te bepaal om die bedoeling en betekenis van sulke herdenkingsplekke in ’n multikulturele, post-apartheid Suid-Afrikaanse samelewing oor te dra. In die artikel word die Isivivane aangebied as ’n gevallestudie en ’n empiriese data-opname is gebruik om die besoekers se ervarings en persepsies van Isivivane te bepaal. Gebaseer op die bevindings van die studie bestaande uit ’n kwantitatiewe vraelys, ondersteun deur teorieë gewortel in fenomenologiese vertolking en landskapnarratiewe, bevestig die artikel dat mense se ervaring en persepsie van die Isivivane beïnvloed word deur die ontwerp en kenmerke van die landskap en dat laasgenoemde betekenisvol is by die ontlokking van ’n reaksie wat besoekers met die plek laat identifiseer en individuele en kollektiewe betekenis daaraan laat toeken. Die argument word ondersteun deur huidige teorieë oor herdenking en betekenis wat afgelei kan word deur landskapontwerp. Die implikasies van die studie is nuttig en kan moontlik deure oopmaak vir verdere studies wat dieper delf in ’n begrip van die bydrae wat landskapontwerp lewer in die konseptualisering van herdenkingsplekke in ’n pluralistiese en politiesgelaaide Suid-Afrika.Sleutelwoorde: Landskapontwerp, gedenktekens, herdenking, Freedom Park, post-apartheid Suid-Afrika, Isivivane

1. IntrodUctIonPrior to 1994, in the vast majority of South African landscape designs, the value and meaning of public places had been seriously neglected and had no meaning for most of the population. However, post-1994, the nation was in flux (Barnard & Young, 2009: 6), and the value of public space was debated as to its function, meaning, and relevance in South Africa. This led to “the awareness that public projects were vitally important and could be employed in the service of engendering forms of national identity, resulting in politically motivated legacy projects” (Barnard & Young, 2009: 6).

The designed public landscapes and the commissions that followed began to take on a significant role in attempting to be socially, culturally and

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environmentally responsive. Some of these places such as new provincial legislature buildings and their landscapes were intended to become icons of cultural expression in the new South Africa. “Slowly, the scene was set in the years after 1994, for the role of landscape architecture, and its application in design to take on a new significance as it grappled [with] these issues” (Barnard & Young, 2009: 6). Within this formative context, the idea of a so-called ‘Freedom Park’ was first mentioned by the then President Nelson Mandela when he stated: “[W]e shall have a people’s shrine, a Freedom Park, where we shall honour with all the dignity they deserve, those who endured pain so we should experience the joy of freedom”.1 Soon thereafter, Freedom Park in the City of Tshwane was conceived as a monumental scheme that was to symbolise a reconciled nation. In 2003, the then President Thabo Mbeki stated that the Freedom Park “Legacy Project is the most ambitious heritage project to be undertaken by the new democratic government … an ambitious and noble task” (Noble, 2011: 213).

In 2000, co-author G. Young was commissioned to be part of the team of designers to design a place that takes its cues from African culture, namely Freedom Park, a monumental South African government project to be located on Salvokop, immediately south of Pretoria’s CBD.

In the past decade, many papers2 and books have been written about Freedom Park and other post-apartheid heritage projects and commemorative spaces. Whilst being understood within the context of “the post-colonial policy of erecting new monuments in opposition to old colonial and apartheid” (Jacobs, 2014: ii), these studies deal primarily with the political authenticity, national identity and social overtones of the projects. A study, on which this article is based, turned away from the often “messy issues of nation-building, national identity, healing and reconciliation and the social discourses associated with Post-Apartheid legacy projects” (Young, 2019: 20). Instead, it focused on the effectiveness or otherwise of designed landscape elements specifically at Isivivane, Freedom Park, to evoke the meaning of place. The issue is not whether the meaning is ‘authentic’ in its expression, but to simply understand whether or not Isivivane’s features were effective in enabling individuals to unpack the set of beliefs and values embodied in its design3 and, hence, its intended meaning, and to ultimately know what meaning individuals have attached

1 Stated in a speech on 27 April 1999 at the Freedom Day celebrations in Umtata (South African Government Information Website, 1999).

2 Jacobs’ (2014) meta-analysis consolidates some of the critique by referring to the writings of Marschall (2006; 2008; 2010), Mare (2006; 2007) and Labuschagne (2012), among others.

3 Nordberg-Schulz (1985: 13, quoted in Noble, 2011: 4) suggests that “public building embodies a set of beliefs or values, it ought to appear as an ‘explanation,’ which makes the common world visible”.

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to its aesthetic, through their “first-person”4 reading thereof. In order to understand whether experience and perception of the influences of landscape design features (places) can allow people to identify with the place and consequently attach meaning to it, it was important for this study to focus only on one aspect of Freedom Park, that is, Isivivane (a place for ‘cleansing and healing’).

Young’s (2019) study explored the relationship between commemoration, meaning, and landscape design, with the main purpose to investigate the effectiveness of landscape architecture in communicating the intent and meaning of a commemorative place such as Freedom Park, Isivivane, in post-apartheid South Africa.

2. lIteratUre revIeWIn order to understand the landscape design concepts used in this article, it is important to introduce the theories used to describe the concepts of commemoration, meaning, and landscape.

2.1 commemoration, memory and identityCommemoration, memory, and identity are fundamental concerns of human existence. The terms have been discussed in numerous scholarly media over many years, but “the relationship between issues of commemoration and identity, on the one hand, and gardens and landscape design, on the other hand, have not yet been investigated in the same thorough and comprehensive manner” (Wolschke-Bulmahn, 2001: 3). In South Africa, gardens and designed landscapes have served many purposes from public parks, leisure activities, and infrastructure to the demonstration of power, wealth and image, the latter specifically for the ‘adornment’ of office parks that proliferated in the 1980s. Gardens have also played “commemorative roles in the process of identity formation at different times and for different cultures” (Wolschke-Bulmahn, 2001: 3). This application has, however, not been widespread, as memorials have mostly been conceived with architectural elements as the central feature, such as the Voortrekker- (Pretoria) and Taal (Paarl) monuments, or during colonial times when figurative sculptures proliferated. More recently, places such as the Apartheid Museum in Johannesburg and the yet-to-be-completed Sarah Baartman Remembrance Centre, near Hankey in the Eastern Cape, have incorporated landscape design as an element in their conceptualisation.

4 “The central structure of an experience is its intentionality, its being directed toward something, as it is an experience of or about some object. An experience is directed toward an object by virtue of its content or meaning (which represents the object) together with appropriate enabling conditions” (Smith, 2018: online).

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In his discussion on the constructs of memory and identity, Wolschke-Bulmahn (2001: 2) argues that commemoration is closely related to memory and that “[i]dentity and memory are not stable and objective things but representations or constructions of [a particular take on] reality”. For example, South Africans share the same history of the nation, but this does not necessarily mean that they have the same identity or agree with the interpretation of that history. The way in which members of a particular group identify depends on “their interpretation of history, their ideas about the future, and their political, moral and other ideals” (Wolschke-Bulmahn, 2001: 2). Identity and memory, therefore, relate to specific interests such as class, gender, or the political agenda of any given ruling political party. According to Gillis (1994: 3), these interests ultimately “determine what is remembered (or forgotten), by whom and for what end”. Wolschke-Bulmahn (2001: 2) finds that identity is perhaps inconceivable “without the remembrance and commemoration of history, however much such remembrance may distort historical events and facts”. Thus, the conflation of these terms suggests that they are mutually dependent on each other, since the core meaning of individual or group identity is “sustained by remembering and what is remembered and is defined by assumed identity” (Gillis, 1994: 3).

The search for group identity and the need for places of commemoration in post-apartheid South Africa gained traction with the Legacy Projects, which sought to redress history (TRC, 2002) and to reflect an ‘African’ identity, which, it was hoped, would be shared by all South Africans. Jackson (1980: 92) confirms this notion by stating that “every new revolutionary social order, anxious to establish its image and acquire public support, produces many commemorative monuments and symbols and public celebrations” (Wolschke-Bulmahn, 2001: 3).

Whilst landscape architects may be well placed to design commemorative places, the elusiveness of objectivity in memorial design can be an issue in multicultural societies where content is often contested, specifically as it pertains to the search for a uniquely African ‘identity’, or universal South African identity in post-apartheid South Africa. Albertyn (2009: 172) addresses this issue when he suggests that, in the national liberation struggle, tribal and racial identities were strongly resisted in favour of a South African identity, which emphasised that “[B]lack South Africans were citizens of South Africa and not tribal subjects tied to ‘homelands’”. Prinsloo (2012: 141) adds that “Africanness involves a palimpsest approach where the project is not to deconstruct and de-layer the different gestalts of identity to discover the ‘original’, but rather the approach is to understand identity as being ‘dynamically constructed and fluid’ at any point in time and place and that ‘identities are marked by a multiplicity of subject positions’”.

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Thinking of identity in this way is important, because no one identity could be expressed at Isivivane. South Africa is a multicultural society and the design narrative at Isivivane was, by implication, to be ‘open’. When considering the relationship between commemoration and identity in the application of landscape design to memorial places, it is clear that political issues will always be at the forefront of the debate. Wolschke-Bulmahn (2001: 4) asks: “Who are the social, political, ethnic, or other groups that ‘own’ history, who have the power to interpret it and to determine the ways to commemorate it?”

A description of the processes involved in the case study sheds some light on these questions. Ultimately, the debate moves to the intended meaning of the place and the effect that is to be created. This is the challenge, as it is not possible to accurately predict a visitor’s response to a place, yet Wolschke-Bulmahn (2001: 4) inquires “can landscape design facilitate a common experience, … or is the visitor’s reaction and perception of the place defined solely by his or her predisposition alone?”

2.2 place and designPeople perceive places holistically through their senses, recollection, and imagination to ultimately make sense of the place or experience its Genius Loci (Norberg-Schulz, 1980). To sense or to know the place involves an emotional interaction between people and the place. Yet what makes up place and how do people identify with it? For Relph (1976), there are three integrated aspects: its physical setting; its human activities and events that take place there, and the individual and group meanings that arise from their experience and reason for being there. The unique quality of place, therefore, lies in its “power to order and focus human intentions, experiences, and actions spatially” (Relph, in Seamon & Sowers, 2008: 45). Reinforcing these concepts and to safeguard memories of the place, Pallasmaa (2009: 35) suggests that its design “must slow down and focus [on] the experience of the place”.

When considering the design of a commemorative place, it is important to bear in mind the factors that make it memorable. As noted earlier, these factors relate to peoples’ memories and the vibrancy that the sense of place evokes as they experience the place, along with the associations they bring to it. Relph (1976, cited in Wattchow, 2013: 90-91) suggests that the distinctive characteristic of how a place is experienced is that of insideness. He elaborates by explaining that to be inside a place is akin to feeling some kind of attachment with it, and that, when you are there, there is a sense of being welcomed home. This suggests that, when experiencing a good place, it will feel familiar, safe, and comfortable.

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Wattchow (2013: 91) believes that for a person to truly experience a place and its ‘sense’ requires that “[s/he] suspend[s] [her/his] belief in several cultural ideas and ideals that [s/he] hold[s] dear”. Thus, to develop a reciprocal relationship with a place requires a person to actively engage with it, with the knowledge that it already is innately meaningful. The responsibility shifts to the participant who must not merely view it, but also see into and appreciate the essential elements of its identity. This ties in with Relph’s concept of insideness, which demands a willingness of the participant to be open to the significance of a place; to be able to feel it, and to know and respect its symbols. Experiencing a place in this manner will ultimately lead to a person being able to identify with it (Relph, 1976: 54), and allows for the bonds that arise between a person and a place to be rich and powerful. Knowing this, the responsibility shifts to designers to consider a place quite differently (Wattchow, 2013: 91).

Therefore, in recognising the importance of ‘essential elements’ in good place-making, how do designers embed memories such that they are also clearly understood by those who engage with the place? Lyndon (2009: 64) advocates that these essential elements can be “held in the mind” to allow for places to gain significance. It is the act of vivid recall that dwells in the mind of individuals. When these elements are incorporated into the design, shared conceptions are developed (Lyndon, 2009: 64). These also reinforce a unified or common understanding of the place. Lyndon (2009: 65) suggests that “[g]ood places are structured so that they attract and hold memories; they are sticky – or perhaps you would rather say magnetic … The difficulty often lies in the conflict between professional doctrine regarding the way things should be made, and the experience of places that people commonly enjoy.”

Schröder (2013: 2) contends that in the “creation of places of remembrance, landscape architects have a responsibility to history. More than anything, however, they are faced with the task of making remembrance possible in the here and now.” He is clear on the responsibility of designers to ensure an equitable approach to the design of memorials, and challenges landscape architects in this regard. He mentions that, while the design of a commemorative place is “always an individual process”, it should strive to ensure that more than one opinion or perception is expressed. The design “through its expression in space” should attempt to give “history intersubjective validity, to allow it to be accepted, not least and precisely because an objective historiography is not possible” (Schröder, 2013: 2).5

5 In order to gain the knowledge and a variety of opinions during the conceptualisation process, this approach was adopted by the FPT who invited the design team to be part of focus-group workshops (with the youth, traditional healers, traditional leaders, women, war veterans, and so on) where this knowledge was used to guide the design process.

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Lyndon (2009: 80) suggests that the commemorative landscape must also offer choice and create features that users can connect to their own lives. The importance, in this instance, is that the designer determines what these features might be through active participation with potential users. However, the designer should also incorporate universal or archetypical representation, thus not negating a participant’s understanding or interpretation of the place. By designing in this manner, the place can offer a wide variety of choices (and interpretations) and not be subjected to a singular pattern of use and sequencing of space predetermined by the designer. The designed landscape would thus offer a variety of associations and interpretations (Lyndon, 2009: 80). Pallasmaa (2009: 34) suggests that the [landscape] architect’s role “is to establish frames of perception and horizons of understanding”, which sensitise participants to the place, and become the “projection screen of remembrance and emotion”.

Supporting this understanding, Wasserman (2002: 195) argues that good design should juxtapose elements in revealing ways and that many of the forms should be universally recognisable. For example, water used to symbolise renewal, healing, reflection, and contemplation, thus allowing for both a common and an individual interpretation of the place. Potteiger and Purinton (1998: 15) refer to this concept as “opening”.

2.3 landscape narrativePotteiger and Purinton (1998: ix) argue from the premise that “narrative is a fundamental way people shape and make sense of experience and landscapes”. They advocate that the story can link time, experience, and memory to the more tangible, physical aspects of a place, because “stories sequence and configure experience of place into meaningful relationships”. Potteiger & Purinton (2002: 136) explain the concept of an open narrative:

“To link the practices of making landscapes to narrative practices requires an expanded notion of text, of the role of readers [of the landscape] in producing meaning, as well as recognition of landscape as a spatial narrative shaped by ongoing processes and multiple authors. Design practice derived from understanding these conditions forms ‘open narratives,’ as opposed to the current trend for highly scripted and controlled narratives”.

To achieve this, landscape narratives are produced within three inter-related realms:

• “The story realm – which emphasizes the designer’s intentions to create meaning within the structures of the story being expressed in the design

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• The contextual/intertextual realm – in which the design emphasis is on the role of users, community or memory in making the landscape narrative and

• The realm of discourse – which requires attention to whose story is being told and to what ideologies are implicit in the telling” (Potteiger & Purinton, 2002: 137).

Supporting the place theory discussed earlier and the idea behind open narratives, Potteiger and Purinton (2002: 43) emphasise that “meaning in landscape narratives can only be derived by removing the designer as the sole creator of meaning and bestowing that purpose on the person experiencing the place”. This combination of user-interpretation and use of symbolic landscape elements leads to the ‘opening’ of the narrative, the opposite of which is a closed narrative that effectively seeks to eliminate diverse voices and a misreading of the place (Potteiger & Purinton, 2002: 143). Typically, this approach would be used in memorials placed in a Fascist context.

In a pluralistic society, it is thus important to encourage a manifold reading of landscape design and, in the case of commemorative places that have a specific message, to “retain gaps, disjunctions, ambiguities and indeterminacies as intentional aspects of the work” (Potteiger & Purinton, 2002: 143). This technique effectively “shifts the production of meaning from the author to the reader, so that the vitality of the work is created by the active engagement of many readers” (Potteiger & Purinton, 2002: 144).

But how does this come about? How do people make sense of landscapes and places? In reinforcing his ideas, Wattchow (2013: 93) suggests two ways. The first is “being present in and with a place”, and the second is through “the power of place-based stories and narratives”. Elaborating on these, he refers to Lopez (1998: 67-68), who argues that narrative is a powerful way to learn about landscapes, and that those stories make visible those ‘invisible threads’ that connect people to the place. The narrative in the landscape, through symbolic representation, is thus capable of connecting the physical landscape to the interior landscape of the person (Wattchow, 2013: 94).

The implication for the designer is not only a matter of learning how to tell stories in landscapes, but “developing a critical awareness of the processes and implications of narrative: whose story is told and what values and beliefs [exist essentially] in the telling?” (Potteiger & Purinton, 1998: 25). “Perhaps, then the most direct way to see the interplay between landscape and narrative is in places designed explicitly to tell a story” (Potteiger & Purinton, 1998: 15).

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2.4 meaning and landscape designIt can be deduced from the discussion so far that a phenomenological perspective advocates that the meaning of place is embedded in the narrative, as expressed in metaphor or symbolism, each dependent on its context. However, when referring to the question “Must landscape mean?”, Treib (2002: 99) poses two questions: “Can a (landscape) designer help make a significant place? Yes.” and “Can a (landscape) designer design significance into the place at the time of its realisation? No, or let’s say, no longer”.

“Significance” (or meaning),6 according to Treib (2002: 99-100), “condenses at the intersection of people and place, and not alone in the form the designer’s idea takes”. The design is the filter through which the visitor experiences the place, and “while this transaction between people and place is never completely symmetrical”, it can “circumscribe the range of possible reactions to a designed place” (Treib, 2002: 99-100). The implication is that the designer cannot make a place mean, but he can, “perhaps, stimulate reactions and emotions to that place, which fall within the desired limits of the intended (or wished for) reaction to the place” (Treib, 2002: 99-100). This, of course, reflects Pallasmaa’s (2009) thinking.

Treib (2011: 130) returns to this idea by arguing that, in multicultural societies, meaning over time can only be “constructed through a transaction between people and place – and that meaning is ultimately personal”. Elaborating on this, he suggests that, because the individual is formed by his/her culture, and that s/he interprets meaning through his/her own experience and knowledge, “meaning” is, therefore, “fluid and changes with time as well as the individual; even meanings that are lucid today become obscure in the future as a society and its symbolic systems evolve” (Treib, 2011: 131).

Raymond, Kyttä and Stedman (2017: 20) challenge this ‘long term’ perspective of the acquisition of meaning. They argue, from the perspective of Affordance Theory, that, through direct perception of a place, people create immediately perceived place meanings related to functional, social, or symbolic elements of the place, and that “meanings are assigned to places within one’s immediately perceivable environment”. Scale is, therefore, important for immediately perceived place meaning to occur; in other words, the place must be able to be perceived immediately and it must have “clear material and perceptual components” (Raymond et al., 2017: 20). They conclude that “perceived meanings, … may play a bigger role in ‘sense of place’ than we typically think. We propose that in any experience in life, a sense of place can be associated with immediately perceived place meanings.” They, however, do not eliminate the notion that place meanings

6 Treib uses ‘significance’ and ‘meaning’ as interchangeable concepts in his essay.

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are also formed “through longer-term processes of social construction” (Raymond et al., 2017: 33).

Given that perception and meaning can be infused either in the short term, as is argued by Raymond et al. (2017), or more conventionally, over the long-term (Relph, 1976; Norberg-Schulz, 1980; Pallasmaa, 2009; Treib, 2011) and that “meaning condenses at the intersection of people and place and not alone in the form of the designer’s mind” (Treib, 2002: 100), what must designers do to create places that promote their intended meaning?

As in any art, it is the designer’s role to set out the material and to select and arrange the various elements such that they create reference points to induce a certain curiosity and familiarity of the place. However, in memorial design, the theory suggests, it is also important that these reference points are evocative and encourage users to delve further to discover the significance of the place. Olin (2011: 79) challenges designers to not be too complacent about the task at hand and to recognise the complexities inherent in landscape design:

“At the same time the close reading one enjoys with poetry can only be applied to landscape with great care and subtle examination of the myriad elements and their relationships. Landscapes are made of many diverse phenomena – visual, aural, tactile, olfactory – that may trigger the recall of things from our personal environmental history, which in turn combine with a world of information from our education and experience. For this reason, there is no question in my mind that the art of landscape design – when it is an art – is possibly the most complex and sophisticated art we possess.”

Wasserman (1998: 42) is encouraging when she advocates that landscape architecture is ideally placed to conceptualise commemorative places, because landscape architectural training typically includes rigorous studies of site history and user needs, as well as the use of the spatial organisation of materials and elements to transmit meaning. She believes that landscape architects have the appropriate credentials to “transform space into a place of significance, a place of storytelling, a place of lessons” (Wasserman, 1998: 42).

In summary, the literature review suggests that landscape design can facilitate a common experience of a place, when its form is structured to attract and hold memories that have been shaped by cultural representations that “encourage others to think of particular (or general) things, [and] to have both [a] sensory experience and discoveries of particular references” (Treib, 2011: 74). Designers of commemorative places must consider an open narrative approach that offers choices and includes elements that have universal meaning, so that visitors can also form their impressions and thoughts about the place.

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3. tHe IsIvIvane caSe StUdYDescribed by the Freedom Park Trust (FPT) as a Garden of Remembrance, Freedom Park was to integrate with the natural ecology of the site and include “symbolic spaces for cleansing and healing” (Isivivane).7 In addition to being a place for “cleansing and healing”, Isivivane was to be a “spiritual” place, a place where the memory of those who died in the cause of freedom could be honoured (FPT, 2004a).

3.1 The conceptual frameworkThe conceptualisation of the Isivivane by a consortium of architects and landscape architects8 originated through consultations with advisers and experts in the field of Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS). Their challenge was to introduce cultural sensibility through a narrative based on the abstract expression of African values, but also related to universal archetypes.

Figure 1: Isivivane (foreground left) located at the south-eastern side of Freedom Park on Salvokop

Source: OCA, 20159

7 In the naming of the various places at Freedom Park, The Freedom Park Trust sought to use a variety of South Africa’s 11 official languages: Isivivane is IsiZulu; S’khumbuto is IsiSwati; //hapo is Koisan; Moshate is IsiSotho; Tiva is Zitsonga, and Uitspanplek is Afrikaans (Mufamadi, 2014).

8 The team was made up of landscape architects, architects and artists who worked in conjunction with traditional healers, academics, historians and poets to conceptualise the project. The design team comprised NBGM Landscape Architects Joint Venture (Newtown Landscape Architects, Bagale Environmental, GreenInc Landscape Architects and Gallery Momo); OCA Architects (MMA Architects, Mashabane Rose Architects and GAPP Architects and Urban Designers), and Africon Consulting Engineers.

9 By permission of the Office of Collaborative Architects (OCA).

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The close referencing of IKS, introduced at Freedom Park (Figure 1) with the conceptualisation of Isivivane, advanced the idea of an IKS-directed method to knowledge production. According to Serote (2014: 41), “Isivivane, which became the first element of the [Freedom] Park, … is a direct result and manifestation of the consultative processes … [and] the restructuring of the ruptured and fragmented African voice and belief systems based on IKS”.10 Serote (2014: 42) further emphasises that “[t]he design … was informed by Harriet Ngubane’s writings on the subject, and oral research done in South Africa involving the variety of IKS practitioners, … [and] borrowed from and also innovated IKS concepts as they were adapted to the construction [of Isivivane]”. The FPT (2004a: 7) later suggested that this approach “led to indigenous people taking control of the process away from the pervasive interpretation of indigenous knowledge through the gaze of non-indigenous people”, and that this knowledge must then be applied to its design. However, the FPT (2004a: 7) cautioned the design team: “In such [an] indigenous directed approach to knowledge production, caution should be exercised that it does not become an exercise to return to some golden age, but must be transformative towards a new future of a very different kind.”

In attempting to deal with the differing perceptions and values that vary across the landscape of South African cultural identity, the FPT commissioned research and engaged with the greater South African community. These included focus-group meetings with indigenous leaders, indigenous healers, IKS artists, and historians, among others, whose opinions were solicited as to what the Isivivane should become. This material was filtered by the creative team and FPT to, ultimately, derive a concept believed to be responsive to, and representative of South Africans’ expectations for a place of commemoration. This emphasis on indigenous knowledge, as the source of authentic African identity and meaning, had already found its way into the design and construction of the Isivivane, which was handed over to President Mbeki on 8 March 2004 (FPT, 2004a). Thus, Isivivane’s form, materiality, and organising principles were based on ideas originating in traditional values, IKS, and African philosophy.

The Three-person Committee and Heritage Department’s 2004 Vision for the Architectural Design Brief, written soon after the completion of Isivivane, bears the influence of Serote and a continued reference to African philosophy as the basis of design decisions for the remaining elements of Freedom Park. The document reinforces the emphasis on IKS and authenticity, coupling these to a binding form of nationalism (FPT, 2004b).

10

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3.2 location and design responseThe Isivivane’s location was all-important and the design team, along with traditional healers, artists, and historians, debated this on numerous occasions when together on site. Ultimately, it was decided to locate Isivivane on the south-eastern slope of Salvokop, where it “would see the sunrise throughout the year no matter what season” (Figure 1), because, according to the traditional healers, this was of critical importance from an African cultural perspective.

Figure 2: Members of the design team with IKS and traditional healer advisors discussing the location of Isivivane

Source: Young, 2019: 46

Professor Harriet Ngubane, who was commissioned by FPT to prepare a research paper on the concept of an African understanding of the concept of a memorial, cites examples of African custom and practice that signify types of memorialisation that are not necessarily tied exclusively to “commemorative buildings or portrayed in sculpture” (Ngubane, 2003a: 1): “A well-known structure that portrays memorial is a heap of stones along long-distance pathways known as Isivivane”. Ngubane mentions that burial sites were fortified with stones and a planted aloe near the top end of the graveside and the practice of burying family members within the homestead ensured that “their own identity was embedded within the homestead precincts” (Ngubane, 2003a: 1). Concerning the naming of places to capture a special aura, she states that “the names of royal residences reflect the area or aura connected with a historical event” (Ngubane, 2003a: 2). Thus, in this case,

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the naming of Isivivane takes on special significance in African culture. Concerning Ngubane’s (2003a: 1) earlier statement about African memorial places not necessarily tied to buildings, it can be argued that Isivivane was conceived as a landscape and not a building. Noble (2011: 137) endorses this idea when he suggests that it is “a stylised landscape – not a building”.

The fundamental concept for the layout of Isivivane (Figure 3) is that of an African ‘homestead’ encompassing ‘lesaka’ (the burial place and shrine) and ‘lekgotla’ (the meeting place) (Serote, 2014: 42). Lesaka is a Setswana word, “which in African culture … [is used to describe] a circular structure – often a cattle byre commonly found in South African villages where generation upon generation are buried” (FPT, n.d.[a]: 2).

Figure 3: Isivivane layout is based on the primary spatial arrangement of an African homestead

Source: Young, 2011: Slide 28

The chosen location of Isivivane was on a steeply sloping piece of land (Figure 4). The designers chose to “fill up the slope of the terrain, bubbling it out to form an inhabitable terrace rather than cutting into the side of the hill, a move that is uncommon to indigenous practice” (Young, in Noble, 2011: 237).

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Figure 4: A sketch of Isivivane showing its relationship to the site’s topography Source: Young, 2011: Slide 30

Symbolism was not translated literally at Isivivane; rather, it remained abstract, “simple and devoid of clutter”11 (Young, 2011: 11). The designers thus hoped that the ensuing aesthetic would evoke emotions of reverence that could be understood crossculturally and that relate to the meaning and themes of commemoration and healing (Young, 2011: 11). The extensive use of stone, water and the limited use of indigenous plant materials form the basic design elements.

Isivivane is built primarily of stone and comprises nine boulders, one from each province placed near the edge of a circle. Balancing these and completing the circle are two larger boulders representing the national government and the international community. Contained within the boulders circle are stones that have come from countries outside South Africa – symbolic of combatants and exiles that fell while they sought refuge in other countries (FPT n.d.[a]). “The circular pattern is all-important. It is an archetypical symbol of unity and equality and the boulders being placed in a circle at the same level, engage in a ‘dialogue’, where none is more important than the other” (Young, 2011: 11-12). Ngubane (2003b: 5) explains the importance of stone in African culture and particularly at burial sites. She mentions that placing a stone at a place is an act of leaving something behind that unites people with the “land and its people, spirits, flora and fauna”.

A fine water spray at lesaka (Figure 5) raises as a mist from the stone floor to eventually envelop the boulders. “The significance of this ‘smoke’ or

11 This directive came from Dr Serote during the first phase design review process.

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impepho12 emphasises the sanctity of the place and is also representative of the cleansing and healing process13 central to helping the South African nation heal from its past.”14 (Young, 2011: 12). The spiritual and ancestral significance of lesaka is reinforced and captured in the words of a Vhenda elder in a discussion with Archbishop Dandala during a fact-finding mission to Vhenda (FPT n.d.[b]). These words, translated to English (the original is in Tshivenḓa), are inscribed against a stone wall at the entrance to Isivivane:

I am an African

If you dig the Earth in this lesaka, you will find me

If you dig and dig and dig

You will find me still

If you dig and dig and dig

And even if you use the big machines

Which the human race has made

To dig and dig and dig

To the fathomless bottom

There …. You will find me in the earth

Near lesaka, also on the terrace, a single tree is located in the curve of a stone bench as counterpoint to lesaka. It is a Senegalia galpinii (Mologa or Monkey Thorn) symbolic of a marker for the ‘lekgotla’, a place where elders would traditionally gather to discuss important tribal matters. “At Isivivane, the lekgotla is a place where relatives, friends and loved ones of the freedom fighters who fell use the space for contemplation.” (Serote, 2014: 42).

The selection of plant species at Isivivane was intentional and referenced African cultural practices. The spiritual bond that formed between the Nguni people and the Buffalo Thorn trees inspired the choice of nine Ziziphus mucronata that create a soft green, vertical edge to the lower terrace at Isivivane (Figures 3 and 4). The concept of ‘bringing the spirit home’ is central

12 Impepho is an isiZulu word for a plant very sacred to abaNguni and also burnt to communicate with abangasekho who are entities of influence or a broader term for all types of souls who have passed on, but continue to exert positive influence on the ‘living’ (Ntshangase, 2012: iv).

13 “At Freedom Park, the ceremonies at the Isivivane are linked to the question of reconciliation and symbolic reparations for the human violations of the past because it is believed that the spirits of those who died for freedom must be cleansed and healed before coming to rest at the Isivivane” (Noble, 2011: 235).

14 When designing Isivivane, Young understood the universal symbol of water to represent cleansing and healing and he included a waterfall on the lower terrace. At a later date, another waterfall was included on the upper terrace to reinforce the archetypical reference to the process of “healing the wounds of the past” (Young, 2011: 12).

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to the purpose of Isivivane. Manqele and O’Donoghue (1994: 1-3) state that the Nguni people coped with death through an intimate and spiritual relationship connected to the Buffalo Thorn tree, and that the hlahlankosi (Buffalo Thorn) is one of the Nguni ‘chosen’ trees. They suggest that, in earlier times, when a person died far away from home (often in battle), the elders of the family would send a party to “fetch the spirit”. Branches from the tree were used in this ceremony. The party would carry a branch and, at the spot where the person had died, would call out the name of the dead person and announce that they had come to take his spirit home. Significant to the purpose of Isivivane, Manqele and O’Donoghue (1994: 5) further explain that “the practice of bringing the spirit home is still often observed when people have died far from home … and their bodies cannot be found.”

Figure 5: Lesaka, a resting place covered in mist symbolising impepho Source: Young, 2019: 51

Completing the main landscape features of Isivivane are two waterfalls (Figure 6) designed into the stone-packed walls near lesaka and beneath the Buffalo Thorn trees immediately above the spiral path. Water flows over a trough and down stone pitched walls into shallow pools below to create an ambiance that the designers suggest may remind the visitor that, in this place, “the spirit flows and cleanses like water’” (Young, 2011: 15).

A still bowl of water is carved into the top of a large quartzite boulder placed near the western exit of Isivivane. This functions as a basin in which visitors can wash their hands after visiting and paying homage at Isivivane.

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Figure 6: Upper waterfall at the Isivivane Source: Young, 2019: 52

3.3 reflection Isivivane was designed around an IKS-informed place-based narrative; beginning with locating and location, through to its design as ‘a place of burial’ and memorial. The symbolic elements and cultural values behind Isivivane’s conceptual narrative, which were used to portray its meaning, were derived from the FPT’s engagement with various focus groups and commissioned research. There was no structured brief from the client; rather, the conceptual underpinnings were passed to the design team, who had to interpret these and create, through the designed response, “frames of perception and horizons of understanding” (Pallasmaa, 2009: 43).

In the context of post-apartheid South Africa and the telling of this uniquely South African story, the designers sought to anticipate the audience’s reactions, perceptions, and experiences. In so doing, they hoped that the landscape design at Isivivane, based primarily on narrative techniques, would become visible, tangible, and palpable, giving form to an experience that aesthetically, emotionally, and spiritually engages them. The designers also hoped that the place would become an effective crosscultural catalyst, enabling visitors to discover and know the meaning behind the place.

While narrative is a fundamental way whereby people shape and make sense of their experience of a landscape (Potteiger & Purinton, 2002), the question still begs: Can a visitor’s reaction to, and perception of Isivivane be fostered through its built elements, in order to facilitate a common experience?, and: Is Isivivane a place that is responsive to, and representative of South Africans’ expectations for a place of commemoration?

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The case study and the theory neither provide verifiable comment about these statements nor confirm whether these sentiments would ring true with visitors to Isivivane (Figure 7). An empirical survey was carried out to better understand how visitors experience, perceive, and attach meaning to Isivivane, and which landscape elements contributed to a better understanding thereof.

Figure 7: A visitor paying her respects at lesaka, Isivivane Source: Young, 2019: 53

4. reSearcH SUrveY

4.1 research designThe study analysed user perceptions and the effect specific design elements had on their reading of Isivivane relative to its discourse, as described in the case study.

A quantitative research design was adopted, as this type of design allows for the use of structured questionnaire surveys (Creswell, 2014). In this survey, the data on how people comprehend and experience Isivivane, together with the significance and meaning of the place as perceived, was analysed using descriptive analysis on respondents’ profile, reasons for visiting, experience, and building design elements used in the study area. This technique summarises data in an understandable way, by using frequencies and percentages (Satake, 2016: 663).

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4.2 Sampling techniqueAs they randomly arrived at Freedom Park, visitors to Isivivane were the target population of the survey. Using nonprobability convenience sampling, visitors, upon entering Freedom Park, were asked by staff and/or the research assistants whether they would like to take part in the survey. This is a method where there is no way of forecasting, estimating, or guaranteeing that each element in the population will be represented in the sample (Leedy, 1989: 152). Nonprobability convenience sampling was conducive to the situation at Freedom Park, as it would represent the typical cross-section of people attending Freedom Park. This sampling method was chosen, as it reflects the profile of visitors to the park and provides a first-person, physical experience of the place. There was no selection process. Participation was voluntary and it was left to the individual to decide whether s/he wished to complete the questionnaire.

4.3 data collectionBased on the visitors’ first-person experience, the data were collected from 144 participants during an on-site survey between July and October 2015. The questionnaire survey consisted of four sections. Section A on the participants’ bio-demographic profile obtained information on their country of origin, province, location type, race and educational level. Section B set eight tick-box questions on the reasons for visiting Isivivane. Section C contained two open-ended and nine closed-ended 5-point Likert-scale items on ‘experience’. Participants’ level of agreement was rated to show their overall experience with visiting Isivivane. Section D set four tick-box questions, one open-ended and one closed-ended 5-point Likert scale question on design features. These questions were an attempt to understand which design features could be vividly recalled after participants experienced Isivivane, and, subsequently, to determine which of these elements were most effective/powerful in this regard. To assist participants’ cross-reference to the questionnaire, a graphic highlighting the main designed features of Isivivane was included (Figure 8).

The questionnaire briefly introduced the participants to the researcher and the reasons for carrying out the study. Ethical clearance from the University of Pretoria’s Ethics Committee was given for the study and questionnaire. Freedom Park also gave written approval for the questionnaire to be distributed and the study to proceed.

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Figure 8: Layout of Isivivane used to help participants understand the various landscape elements being referred to in the questionnaire

Source: Young, 2019: 122

4.4 data analysisThe Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 24 was used to measure each question in terms of validity (which takes into account the percentage of people who answered the question and does not take no response into this account), or missing answers to obtain the total number of returned questionnaires, namely 144. This data was then further analysed in terms of frequency, percentage, valid percentage, and cumulative percentage. For purposes of analysis, the 5-point Likert scale questions that measured ‘experience’ ranged from ‘Strongly agree’ to ‘Don’t know’ or, ‘Extremely powerful’ to ‘It made no impression at all’. It is important to note that only the single frequencies and valid percentage of those who answered the questions were captured and reported to analyse results for all the tick-box and Likert-type questions. Responses from the open-ended questions on ‘experience’ were reduced and tabulated to main themes. This included the landscape setting; the cultural/spiritual nature of the place, and the presence of a tour guide to help interpret the place. Responses from the open-ended question on ‘design features’ were reduced and tabulated to main themes. This included visual, cultural, emotional, and social features.

4.5 limitations of the surveyOne of the authors was intimately involved with the design of Isivivane, which could have led to a bias in the study. To address this, a quantitative

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research design was adopted to effectively remove the researcher from the empirical data collection process. Another limitation may have been the length of the questionnaire and the logistics of having to complete it at Isivivane, or elsewhere in Freedom Park before the respondent left the site. Many participants were attending Freedom Park as part of a field trip, and thus had limited time in which to complete the questionnaire before moving on to another aspect of the park. This could have led to the hasty completion of the questionnaire with not too much reflective cognisance taken by the respondent, specifically for the open questions.

5. reSUltS5.1 bio-demographics of participantsTable 1: Profile of participants

Demographic Category Frequency Percentage N = 144

Age

10-20 years 27 20Valid 138Missing 6

21-30 years 73 5831-50 years 32 2351-70 years 6 4

Educational level

No formal schooling 1 1

Valid 135Missing 9

Grade 7-11 11 8Matriculation 35 26Diploma/Certificate 9 7Degree 39 29Postgraduate degree 37 27Other 3 2

Non-South Africans’ origin

Africa 41 77Valid 53

Missing 91Europe 6 11America 5 9Asia 1 2

South Africans’ province

Limpopo 18 15

Valid 120Missing 24

Mpumalanga 19 16Gauteng 74 62North West 2 2Western Cape 2 2Free State 1 1Eastern Cape 1 1Kwazulu-Natal 3 3

Race

African/Black 83 61

Valid 137Missing 7

Asian 1 1Coloured 1 1Indian 4 3White 48 35

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Table 1 shows that the vast majority of the participants (78%) are young, well-educated individuals aged between 10 and 30 years. This suggests that many school and university groups take field trips to Freedom Park regularly. Of the participants, 61% classified themselves as Black Africans and 35% as White; 29% had a Bachelor’s degree; 27% had a postgraduate degree, and 26% had completed their Grade 12 certificate. The vast majority of the participants came from Gauteng Province (62%), which stands to reason as Freedom Park is located in this province. Participants who stated that they live outside South Africa came mostly from other parts of Africa (77%), 11% from Europe, and the remaining 11% from the other continents.

5.2 reasons for visitingThis section’s range of questions produced data to confirm whether the visitor came for purely tourist, traditional, memorial, faith-based or educational reasons (as part of a school or university group) or for reasons related to experiencing the beauty and serenity of the place. The vast majority of the participants (79%) were visiting Isivivane for the first time without prior knowledge of it; 57% said that they were not aware of it, or arrived with any pre-conceived prospects of what to expect, and 61% indicated that they did not expect what they would experience at Isivivane. This suggests that most of the participants would have entered Isivivane with a relatively fresh perspective.

The primary reason for visiting was given as educational, as part of a structured group outing (44% were with a school or university group). A combined 33% indicated that they visited for the beauty of the place or because it was a tourist attraction; 18% indicated that their visit centred around a memorial, ritual, political or faith-based ceremony, reflecting Freedom Park’s indented purpose for Isivivane.

An overwhelming majority (93%) stated that they wished to return, primarily to experience the calm and serene nature of the place, to share the experience with others, or for educational reasons, respectively.

5.3 experience of IsivivaneTable 2 shows the experience participants had on visiting Isivivane to understand whether the visitor identified with the space; felt a sense of familiarity or curiosity about it, and whether the place made them feel uneasy, or emotionally alienated.

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Table 2: Overall experience with Isivivane

Isivivane as a place

Experience N=144

Don’t know Strongly disagree Disagree Agree Strongly

agree Valid NF % F % F % F % F %

Will remember 5 4 3 2 5 4 61 46 58 44 132Relate to 6 5 9 7 21 17 56 45 33 26 125Feel safe 14 11 8 6 6 5 68 53 32 25 128Comfortable 5 4 5 4 22 17 60 47 35 27 127Interest and curiosity 2 1 7 5 5 4 63 49 52 40 129

Sacred associations 9 7 6 5 9 7 60 47 43 34 127

Emotionally alienated 12 9 17 13 46 36 37 29 15 12 127

Quiet and reflective 1 1 2 2 8 7 51 42 60 49 122

Intimate 7 6 4 3 18 15 61 50 33 27 123Solemn 12 10 3 3 21 18 54 47 26 22 116Spiritual 7 6 1 1 19 15 47 38 49 40 123No meaning 7 6 15 13 50 42 27 23 21 18 120Identify with 16 13 9 7 21 17 39 32 39 32 124Heal past inequalities 18 15 6 5 21 16 51 43 24 20 120

Somewhat dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral Somewhat

satisfied Satisfied

F % F % F % F % F %Overall experience 0 0 3 3 15 12 52 43 51 42 121

Results in Table 2 show that Isivivane projects a strong sense of place, in which most of the participants feel safe (78%) and comfortable (74%); in other words, 90% of the participants agreed that their experience of Isivivane would easily be recalled long after their visit. Following on these themes, 89% of the participants indicated that Isivivane engaged their interest and held their curiosity, reinforcing its strong character and perhaps suggesting that participants would be open to engaging with the symbolic and cultural meanings of the place. This claim is reinforced, as 49% of the participants indicated that they did not feel alienated in any way, despite Isivivane’s overt cultural or spiritual symbolism.

The data also shows that Isivivane is a place with which the vast majority of the participants identified, both individually (71% of participants mentioned that they could relate to the space and derive meaning from its character and form, and 81% indicated that it is a place of sacred and spiritual associations) and collectively. Of the participants, 64% agreed

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that Isivivane is a place with which all South Africans can identify. Finally, the overwhelming majority of participants (85%) indicated that they were somewhat satisfied or satisfied with Isivivane as a place.

When asked how they emotionally relate to, or identify with Isivivane, 91% specified that it was a reflective space; 78%, a spiritual place; 77%, an intimate place; 69%, a solemn place, and 41%, a pleasant place with no specific meaning. It must be noted that these answers are not mutually exclusive (that is, the occurrence of one outcome does not supersede the other), but when compared against each other, it becomes clear that the vast majority of the participants believed (given the variety of descriptive terms in the questionnaire) that Isivivane is a reflective place with spiritual overtones.

The open-ended question established that the landscape setting (physical characteristics) of Isivivane and the participants’ perception that it is an inclusive place of spiritual and cultural meaning reinforced their positive experience thereof. On the other hand, fewer participants cited that not being able to associate with the cultural/spiritual nature of Isivivane or the physical discomfort they experienced were the reasons given for weakening their experience. Most of the participants who visited Isivivane in a group with a tour guide indicated that they did not find the presence of the guide an annoyance. They appreciated that the guide enabled them to delve deeper into the symbolic references found at Isivivane.

5.4 landscape design elements of IsivivaneTable 3 shows the designed features to which the participants responded, in order to gain insight into how powerfully a designed feature embedded itself in their mind and, therefore, contributed most to their understanding of Isivivane.

Table 3 shows that 81% of the participants indicated that the circle of boulders with its mist came vividly to mind; 77%, the place in its totality; 75%, the extensive use of stone; 70%, the hand-wash bowl in the rock at the exit to Isivivane; 68%, the upper level waterfall; 59%, the lower level waterfall; 54%, large tree with a semi-surround bench, and 54%, the row of trees along the lower terrace. This pattern holds when participants were asked to indicate which features contributed most to their understanding of the meaning of the place. The results show that the circle of boulders with its mist (lesaka) rated the highest (88%) along with the place in its totality (also 88%). The extensive use of stone also rated high (81%); the hand-wash basin, 76%; the large tree with a semi-surround bench, 72%; the row of trees along the lower terrace, 69%, and the upper waterfall, 68%, also contributed substantially to the designed intent of the place. The lower level waterfall (56%) was considered the least effective in conveying meaning.

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The final tick-box questions asked the respondents to describe the type of place that Isivivane is, based on their experience: 87% said that it was a place of remembrance; 81% indicated that it was a spiritual place; 72% suggested that it could be a place of collective significance to all South Africans, and 63% described it as a place of ritual.

In their answers to the open-ended questions, the participants emphasised the fact that they found the place to be reflective and peaceful; others suggested that the collective significance of Isivivane was important to all South Africans and that the guides helped them in their understanding of and meanings behind the symbolism. It is interesting to note that three participants, however, suggested that they would have liked the opportunity to interpret the place on their own; one participant suggested the following: “I think monuments are more powerful with interpretation if left open”.

6. dIScUSSIonIt must be noted that the study was not about whether participants were able to give meaning to the place. The intended significance and meaning of this memorial place are conveyed on signage boards, in FPT literature they may have collected on their way into Freedom Park, or as expressed by a guide. Neither was the study designed to delve deeply into the politically charged aspects of post-apartheid commemorative places as they relate to nation-building, healing, and national identity. Instead, the study attempted to ‘unpack’ the ability and effectiveness of landscape design to stimulate an emotional response to Isivivane and intensify the experience of the place, thus enabling visitors to interpret and identify with it through recognising personal meaning.

Isivivane was designed primarily by landscape architects with a directive from the FPT to create a meaningful, commemorative place that deferred directly to African symbolism and ritual as well as referenced universal archetypes with which South Africans could identify. The study addressed the issues of identity, narrative, and unified meaning by engaging with the theoretical aspects linked to landscape architecture as a process and narrative, as well as the engagement with those who experience the place.

The theory demonstrates that perceived meaning and identity, when cross-referenced to the landscape design processes, can be induced when the design of the place is derived from an appropriate combination of narrative and standard design principles. These perceptions can be immediate and contribute to a sense of place, as “cognitions are situated in relation to the environment, the individual, and one’s socio-cultural context” (Raymond et al., 2017: 28). From a phenomenological perspective, the designed landscape also plays a pivotal role in establishing character and

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sense of place, as place meanings are derived from embedded stories and metaphors. However, these meanings are dependent on context and rooted in an evolving set of circumstances (Patterson, 1998, in Raymond et al., 2017: 17) tied to the relationship between individuals and the lived experience of the places they visit. The phenomenology of the place is, therefore, closely intertwined with the identity of an individual and the value s/he attributes to a landscape, resulting from his/her connection to that place through these experiences.

This realisation and the theory suggest that landscape architecture is ideally suited to creating places where feelings and emotions can be evoked through the creation of what Pallasmaa (2009: 43) suggests are “frames of perception and horizons of understanding”. These perceptual lenses sensitise the user to the intended meaning of the place. Meaning cannot be created through the physical landscape alone. Meaning and identity can, however, emerge when symbolic representations are provided to address the relationship between peoples’ values and their culture or ritual of commemoration.

The case study shows that the design was driven by knowledge derived from the interpretation of traditional and cultural practices gained through a community participation process carried out in the early stages of the conceptualisation process. Place can be derived from the notion of ‘perceptual lenses’ and is, therefore, an abstract concept that evolves as a complex aspect of the daily encounters people have with the world in which they engage. To best describe a place, one needs to use “phenomenological methods which proceed from experiences rather than concepts” (Relph, 2018: 2). Landscape narrative is essential to making commemorative landscapes, as it configures cultural symbolism and meaning; the concept of ‘opening’ in landscape narrative holds the greatest potential for a unified meaning of place to emerge from the wide-ranging aspects of landscape design.

The survey results confirm that Isivivane is a quality place to which people can easily relate without any feelings of discomfort or concerns for their safety. They also indicate that people’s experience was successfully informed by immediate perceptions relating to Isivivane’s landscape features, the activities that take place there, and the inferred meanings embedded in the place. The findings suggest that Isivivane is a place where a crosscultural, unified understanding behind its meaning has emerged. The findings also show that Isivivane in its totality (in other words, not one feature stood out) contributes most powerfully to a strong sense of place and identity, thus enabling visitors to enjoy the place, understand its symbolic representations, and ultimately make sense of its meaning, both individually and collectively.

When integrating the theoretical aspects linked to landscape design, with a detailed description of Isivivane and the processes that brought it into being, as well as the study survey findings, the narrative that emerges suggests

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that Isivivane is an important and meaningful place for many South Africans. The process of its realisation can be traced back to its conceptualisation when engagement with various focus groups provided pertinent cultural and symbolic information to the design team. The team was then able to create a place where those symbolic and spiritual references were incorporated into the landscape features of Isivivane. This created a situation where the project’s narrative was in tune with the characteristics of the place and the people who visit it. Isivivane appears to function on an intellectual, emotional, and spiritual level and is understood as a place of reflection, commemoration, and collective meaning.

7. conclUSIonS and recommendatIonSThe study has clarified the role that landscape design plays in elucidating the meaning and significance of commemorative sites in post-apartheid South Africa. It supplements an understanding of the relationship between the concepts of commemoration, identity, and landscape design. While it did not intentionally focus on the relationship of a group or ‘African’ identity as they relate to commemorative places in South Africa, the study found that a cross section of society could understand and relate to the inferred meaning of Isivivane’s various landscape elements and, in so doing, enabled people to attribute an individual and a collective meaning to the place.

Despite some aspects of Freedom Park being fraught with political issues as to its purpose and significance and its overt focus on African values, the study clearly shows that, by inserting sacred African stories into a public open space, their meanings have had a positive impact on most peoples’ perception and reaction to the place.

The study confirmed that Isivivane’s features create a strong sense of place, which effectively serves its intended emotional, spiritual, and communal functions. Although many reflect a specific African cultural perspective or set of values, they can be understood in universal terms.

It can be deduced that Isivivane is an important post-apartheid South African commemorative place that successfully functions as a place for memory; a place for mourning; a place for reflection and healing; a place for ceremony; a place that engenders collective identity; a safe and comfortable place, and a place of aesthetic beauty.

The study offers unique insights into the profession of landscape architecture in terms of commemorative places. It is recommended that further research into the relationship of national identity, nation-building, and landscape design and the power relations associated with commemorative places in other post-apartheid projects be considered.

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How to cite: Tshidavhu, F. & Khatleli, N. 2020. An assessment of the causes of schedule and cost overruns in South African megaprojects: A case of the critical energy sector projects of Medupi and Kusile. Acta Structilia, 26(2), pp. 119-143.

© Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Published by the UFShttp://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as

fhumulani tshidavhu

Ms Fhumulani Tshidavhu, Old Mutual Building, 78 Hans Van Rensburg Street, Polokwane, 0699, Limpopo, RSA National Department of Public Works, Polokwane, South Africa. Phone: 071 679 8604, e-mail: <Fhumulani.Tshidavhu@dpw.gov.za>

nthatisi khatleli

Dr Nthatisi Khatleli, senior lecturer, School of Construction Economics and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. Phone: 011 7177651, e-mail: <Nthatisi.Khatleli@wits.ac.za>

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/24150487/as27i1.5

ISSN: 1023-0564

e-ISSN: 2415-0487

Acta Structilia 2020 27(1): 119-143

an aSSeSSment of tHe caUSeS of ScHedUle and coSt overrUnS In SoUtH afrIcan megaproJectS: a caSe of tHe crItIcal energY Sector proJectS of medUpI and kUSIle

Peer reviewed and revised March 2020

Published June 2020

*The authors declared no conflict of interest for the article or title

abStractCost and schedule overruns are the most common challenges in mega construction projects around the globe, and South Africa is no different. Although comparatively small in number, megaprojects have an inordinate number of projects failing, due to budget overflow and schedule slippage. This article assessed the causes of cost and schedule overruns as well as the challenges with the implementation of critical construction megaprojects, using Kusile and Medupi energy-sector megaprojects in South Africa. Using a quantitative research method, which included a literature review and a questionnaire survey, identified the causes of schedule and cost overruns as well as the challenges militating against the project’s implementation success. Data was collected from engineers, quantity surveyors, architects, contractors, and project managers who were randomly selected from the two megaprojects, Medupi and Kusile. Data was analysed using mean score ratings and ranking. The results revealed that slow client decision-making, shortages of skilled

Review articles • Oorsigartikels

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labour, inaccurate material estimating, unforeseen ground conditions, poor material planning, changes in scope of work on-site, contractual claims, variation orders and poor site management were the major causes of schedule and cost overruns. Findings show that the top five challenges (poor site management, inadequate managerial skills, poor monitoring and control, unstable management structure, and lack of experience together with poor organisation structures) is all management and organisational related, showing that there is not enough local management and organisational expertise in South Africa to ensure the proper planning and effective implementation of energy megaprojects. This article is relevant, as it contributes to the understanding of key challenges faced by megaprojects in the context of a developing country. Specific solutions that mitigate the causes of schedule and cost overruns should be investigated in future studies. Keywords: Cost overruns, energy sector, megaprojects, schedule overruns

abStrakOorskryding van koste en skedules is die mees algemene uitdagings in mega-konstruksieprojekte regoor die wêreld, en Suid-Afrika is nie anders nie. Alhoewel dit relatief klein is, het megaprojekte ’n buitengewone aantal projekte wat misluk as gevolg van oorloop van die begroting en glyplanne. Hierdie artikel het die oorsake van koste- en skedule-oorskrywings, sowel as die uitdagings met die implementering van megaprojekte vir kritiese konstruksie, met behulp van megaprojekte vir die energiesektor (Kusile en Medupi) in Suid-Afrika, ondersoek. Deur gebruik te maak van ’n kwantitatiewe navorsingsmetode, wat ’n literatuuroorsig en ’n vraelysopname insluit, is die oorsake van skedule- en koste-oorskrydings, asook die uitdagings met megaprojekimplementering, geïdentifiseer. Data is versamel van ingenieurs, bourekenaars, argitekte, kontrakteurs en projekbestuurders wat lukraak gekies is uit die twee megaprojekte, Medupi en Kusile. Data is geanaliseer met behulp van gemiddelde telling graderings en posisie. Die resultate toon dat trae kliëntbesluitneming, tekort aan geskoolde arbeid, onakkurate materiaalberaming, onvoorsiene grondtoestande, swak materiaalbeplanning, veranderinge in werkomvang op die terrein, kontraktuele eise, afwykingsbevele en swak terreinbestuur die belangrikste oorsake van die skedule- en koste-oorskryding was. Resultate toon dat die top vyf uitdagings (swak terreinbestuur, onvoldoende bestuursvaardighede, swak monitering en beheer, onstabiele bestuurstruktuur en gebrek aan ervaring tesame met swak organisasiestrukture) alles bestuurs- en organisatories verwant is. Dit toon dat daar nie genoeg plaaslike bestuurs- en organisasiekundigheid in Suid-Afrika is om die behoorlike beplanning en effektiewe implementering van energie-megaprojekte te verseker nie. Hierdie artikel is relevant, aangesien dit bydra tot die begrip van die belangrikste uitdagings wat megaprojekte in die konteks van ’n ontwikkelende land in die gesig staar. In toekomstige studies moet spesifieke oplossings ondersoek word om die oorsake van skedule- en koste-oorskrydings te verlig.Sleutelwoorde: Koste-oorskryding, energiesektor, megaprojekte, skedule-oorskryding

1. IntrodUctIonA megaproject is defined as a project that costs $1 billion or more (Flyvbjerg, 2014: 3). Megaprojects are expensive, and include many risk factors that can cause delays or failures during the project’s execution (Ma, Zeng, Lin, Chen & Shi, 2017: 1). In practice, cost and schedule overruns are generally an ongoing problem in megaprojects implementation in the vast majority of sectors (Aljohani, Ahiaga-Dagbui & Moore, 2017: 137; Famiyeh,

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Amoatey, Adaku & Agbenohevi, 2017: 182). The Sydney Opera House is an example of a megaproject that was overbudget and completed well outside of the proposed schedule; it was ten years overschedule, and its construction cost was 1 400% overbudget (Flyvbjerg, 2014: 9). In the transportation sector, for instance, Flyvbjerg, Bruzelius and Rothengatter (2003: 1) conducted the largest and most encompassing study of cost overruns on a sample of 258 major roads, tunnels, bridges, urban transit, and interurban rail projects in 20 countries on five continents. The study concluded that nine out of ten megaprojects experienced cost overruns (Siemiatycki, 2015: 2).

In South Africa, large-scale projects are required by law to address both pro-growth and pro-poor socio-economic development goals (Sutherland, Sim & Scott, 2015: 185). Large-scale infrastructure projects in South Africa are promoted as having the possibility to drive economic growth, create employment opportunities, and ensure that benefits percolate to the poor and economically marginalised (Sutherland et al., 2015: 186). However, insisting on using megaprojects as a driver of economic growth and a means of social redistribution is challenging, as literature abundantly reveals their failure in addressing social concerns (Dupont, 2013: 3).

There are a few megaprojects in progress or recently completed in South Africa in the energy and transport sectors, namely Medupi Power Station (Eskom), Kusile Power Station (Eskom), the New Multi-Product Pipeline (Transnet), and the Durban port upgrade and expansion project (Transnet). Medupi Power Station is a dry-cooled, coal-fired power station that is being built near Lephalale in Limpopo province. It is the fourth dry-cooled, baseload station to be built in 20 years by Eskom after Kendal, Majuba, and Matimba power stations (Phaahla, 2015: 2). Medupi and Kusile power stations have both suffered delays in construction. Medupi was initially planned to be completed in four years and is currently in its seventh year of construction, and was expected to be completed in 2019 (Phaahla, 2015: 2). The Kusile Power Station project, which is located near the existing Kendal Power Station, in the Nkangala district of Mpumalanga, will comprise six units, each rated at 800 MW installed capacity for a total capacity of 4 800 MW. Once completed, Kusile will be the fourth-largest coal-fired power station in the world (Eskom, 2019: 1). Kusile started in 2008 and was expected to be completed by the end of 2014; however, the project is still not completed. The original cost was estimated at R69.1 billion; by July 2016, the cost to completion (CTC) was placed at R160 billion (Yelland, 2019: 1).

The New Multi-Product Pipeline is South Africa’s largest pipeline project. It is designed to transport liquid fuel from Durban to Johannesburg. The pipeline system will transport five grades of refined fuel, and will provide three pump stations and delivery depots along the route as well as a coastal and inland fuel terminals. This new facility will provide the

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capacity to meet the forecasted fuel needs of the inland market for the year 2030 (ARUP, 2012: 1). The initial cost was R12.7 billion; this amount later increased to R15.4 billion and it further escalated to R23.4 billion in 2012. However, the state-owned entity has stated that R30.4 billion was ultimately invested in the pipeline project. The new multi-pipeline project has been dogged by delays and cost overruns, but it will significantly improve the security of supply risk for Gauteng’s fuel supply (Groenewald, 2017: 1).

There is also the Durban port upgrade and expansion project. Durban is the biggest and busiest port in South Africa, and the busiest in the southern hemisphere. It currently handles 64% of the country’s seaborne container traffic. Transnet is implementing this project to increase the Durban container terminal handling capacity (Barradas, 2017: 2). Transnet stated that its contractor has unfortunately terminated this R4.2 billion contract, which was meant to create deeper berths at the Durban container terminal (Barradas, 2019: 1).

To understand the influence of cost and schedule overruns in megaproject construction, it is important to identify and assess the challenges militating against megaprojects success in South Africa. The bias will be towards energy projects, as they are the biggest in value and have received the largest publicity and media scrutiny because of their importance to the functioning of the economy. This article, therefore, assessed the causes of schedule and cost overruns as well as the challenges experienced with the implementation of critical construction megaprojects, using the Kusile and Medupi energy sector in South Africa.

2. lIteratUre revIeW

2.1 cost and schedule overrunsCost is the budgeted expenditure that the client has agreed to commit to the execution of the project (Subramani, Sruthi & Kavitha, 2014: 3). Cost overrun is defined as the difference between the actual and the estimated cost (Subramani et al., 2014: 3). According to Vidalis and Najafi (2002: 2388), cost overrun is a “percentage difference between the completion cost and the contract bid cost” (Shrestha, Burns & Shields, 2013: 2).

Time overrun is defined as the difference between the construction bid duration and the completion duration (Shrestha et al., 2013: 2). Mukuka, Aigbavboa and Thwala (2015: 1691) describe schedule overrun as the extra time required to complete a given project beyond its original planned duration, whether compensated for or not. Cost and schedule overruns is more pertinent when the failure affects the entire economy, such as in the implementation of energy projects that are critical in averting widespread load-shedding.

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2.2 causes and implications of megaproject delays and cost overruns

Approximately only 20% of megaprojects in Africa reach financial closure and can move to execution, due to cost and schedule overruns during construction (Adugna, 2015: 11; Deloitte, 2014: 3).

Schedule overrun for megaprojects affects all project stakeholders such as clients, contractors, engineers, regulators, and politicians, and is critical to both the contractor and project owner in terms of money and performance, respectively (Subramani et al., 2014: 1; Alaghbari, Kadir, Salim & Ernawati, 2007: 193). The causes of schedule overruns can be related to the contractor, the consultant, the client, and/or other external factors that occur prior to and during the construction phase (Mukuka et al., 2015: 1691). Schedule overrun becomes a liability for contractors when the completion period becomes longer, raw materials may get more costly, due to inflation, and labour costs can increase (Subramani et al., 2014: 2). In South African energy megaprojects, the client is essentially the government through its agency (parastatal) Eskom.

There is a perception that large projects will produce economies of scale; therefore, most of the megaprojects are financed by national governments and private capital development banks (Callegari, Szklo & Schaeffer, 2018: 211). Endemic cost overruns of megaprojects invested in, could, as a result, decrease the investment appeal of these megaprojects (Flyvbjerg, 2014: 5) and the suboptimal use of taxpayers’ money (Shrestha et al., 2013: 1).

Project environment challenges, due to weather attributes such as severe wind, precipitation, floods, or hail, can delay the project, due to reduced visibility to move equipment, delays in the delivery of materials, reduced access to the site for workers, damaged infrastructure, and the loss of electrical power (Akanni, Oke & Akpomiemie, 2014: 92). Political instability can derail a project (Akanni et al., 2014: 92).

Research conducted in Hong Kong identified that causes of delay in construction projects include poor site administration and management; unanticipated ground conditions; slow decision-making by all project teams; employer-initiated variations; essential variation of works; the non-existence of effective communication, and possible preconceptions (Adugna, 2015: 25).

In Malaysia, the main causes of cost overruns and delays in building construction projects are poor scheduling and control of time; delays in the preparation of design documents; ineffective communication between stakeholders; changes in laws and regulations; low labour productivity; lack of knowledge in executing methods (Tahir, Haron, Alias & Diugwu, 2017: 1); contractor’s financial problems that result in the shortage of construction

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materials on-site; owner’s financial problems and slowness in decision-making; consultant’s poor supervision and delays in issuing instructions, and external factors such as materials shortage and poor site condition (Musa, 2012: 5).

Studies in South Africa on the causes of delays in construction projects, not necessarily megaprojects, include delays such as approval of shop drawings; delays in contractors’ payments; design changes; conflicts in the subcontractors’ work schedule; slow decision-making; design errors; labour shortage; insufficient labour skills; owner intrusion; inadequate contractor expertise; financing and payments problems; labour efficiency; improper planning, and subcontractors’ inefficiency (Musa, 2012: 5). Factors that influence cost overruns in public sector projects include change in scope of work on-site; incomplete design on tender stage; extension of time with cost; lack of cost plan and monitoring of funds; delays in pricing variation orders; changes in the scope (Ramabodu & Verster, 2013: 50); management style; lack of reviews of design; inadequate motivation of workers; economic policies; lack of adequate planning; lack of speedy payment to contractors, and quality of management during design and construction (Olatunji, 2010: 5)

Some of the reasons that contribute to cost and schedule overruns in any project (also megaprojects) include design error; inadequate scope; the weather; project changes, and underestimating the time for completing a project (Shrestha et al., 2013: 1). Megaprojects could pose even more causes, given their complexities and the huge conglomeration of activities that are under normal circumstances not linked to one another.

2.3 The energy megaprojectsA tremendous increase in energy demand is expected, as there are still roughly 1.2 billion people who do not have modern energy services, in regions such as Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa (Gray, 2017: 2).

Energy projects can be categorised into nuclear, wind, coal, and biomass (Globe Newswire, 2019: 1). Currently, the world power-generation projects pipeline is worth US$4.46 trillion. Asia-Pacific is currently leading, with a project pipeline (including all projects from announcement to execution stage) valued at US$1.99 trillion, followed from a distance by the Middle East and Africa with a project value of US$960 billion. The Americas have power-generation projects with a value of US$852.3 billion, while the pipeline for Europe is valued at US$739.5 billion; these projects will provide an additional 2 450 GW of power capacity globally (Globe Newswire, 2019: 1). Global consumption of energy in 2017 reached 13 511 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), according to the BP Statistical Review. Asia-Pacific contributed the most at 5 744 Mtoe, followed by the Americas with 3 473

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Mtoe; Europe and Eurasia with 2 948 Mtoe, and the Middle East and Africa with 1 347 Mtoe (Globe Newswire, 2019: 1).

Concerning world electricity production, coal continues to have the largest share at 38%, followed by renewables (principally hydropower) at 20%, nuclear at 17%, natural gas at 16%, and oil at 9%. Electricity production is expected to almost double by 2020 (Sims et al., 2003: 263). Over the next 20 years, an unprecedented level of investment in energy infrastructure is predicted. The capital investment required to keep pace with the world’s energy needs to the year 2035 has been estimated as $48 trillion: $40 trillion of this sum will relate directly to investments in new and replacement energy infrastructure (IEA, 2014: 11). It is predicted that Europe alone will invest over $3 trillion in the energy sector over this period, and the vast majority (69%) of this will be in new power plants (IEA, 2014: 13). Increasing energy demand fosters the development of energy infrastructures (power plants, electrical grid, pipelines, and energy storage). Part of this energy demand will be satisfied by ‘small-scale projects’ (for example, gas turbine or rooftop photovoltaic plants), but some will be satisfied by large-scale and complex ‘megaprojects’, due to their capital nature; these include long pipelines, nuclear power plants, large wind farms, and large dams. With the new power plants, there are indications that three quarters of the spending will be on plants using nuclear power and renewable resources, with the remainder of the projects being fossil-fuel power plants (IEA, 2014: 13).

Energy investment decisions are generally guided by government policy rather than by market signals (Locatelli, Palerma & Mancini, 2015: 21). Government interventions in the installations of new plants represent a highly effective tool of any government’s policy and may contribute, as it does on many occasions, to a significant level of public expenditure (Maïzi & Assoumou, 2014: 850). Power Plant Megaprojects (PPMs) are often implemented too late, are very costly, and usually fail the general populace by not providing the expected benefits (Brookes & Locatelli, 2015: 3).

2.4 Importance and implementation of energy megaprojects

Critical infrastructure is the body of systems, networks, and assets that are so essential that their continued operation is required to ensure the security of a given nation, its economy, and the public’s health and/or safety (CISA, 2019: 4). A healthy critical infrastructure is the backbone of modern society, and is essential to national prosperity, because it enhances a nation’s productivity, quality of life, and economic progression, by driving growth, creating jobs, and improving productivity, quality of life, and efficiency (Department of Homeland Security, 2019: 1). This underpins growth by enabling the supportive networks upon which the economy

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relies (Critical5, 2015: 2). Therefore, national frameworks and policies must contribute to a clearly articulated message that communicates the value, meaning, and importance of critical infrastructure. Resilient and secure infrastructure is vital for economic prosperity, because it underpins not only the effective operation of businesses and services, but also long-term confidence and planning in a region, and thus ongoing investment levels. Resilient infrastructure should have the ability to withstand and quickly recover from disruptions, deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents, and must essentially demonstrate robustness, agility, and adaptability (CISA, 2019: 11). Resilient and dependable networks enable business confidence, which leads to increased business investment and growth, and the creation of new economic opportunities (Critical5, 2015: 3).

Disruptions of critical infrastructure have tangible and measurable direct and indirect economic impacts not only on dispersed workforce, commerce and manufacturing sectors, transportation, supply chains, and society as a whole, but also on broader regional and national impacts that can be measured in the loss of business and tax revenue generated in the affected areas (Critical5, 2015: 5).

According to Söderlund, Sankaran and Biesenthal (2018: 9), there are four essential and critical issues in megaproject management: their existence and prevalence; how they are managed and organised; their performance, or, as is generally believed, under-performance, and the future of megaprojects and how they could be enhanced to address major societal challenges. The management of infrastructure investments with high benefit-cost ratios may have a significant impact on government economic objectives and can result in improved confidence in current and future infrastructure (Critical5, 2015; CISA, 2019: 6). New critical infrastructure implementation such as energy projects is essentially critical, because either one has it or one does not have it, but its absence could hit the economy to a screeching halt.

South Africa is an example of the mismanagement of new energy-sector megaprojects. In 2007, the South African economy was healthy when power shortages happened, halting operations at mines and smelters overnight. The then president Thabo Mbeki admitted to the prevarication by the government in not adding generation capacity on time, although there were clear prior signs that the supply was under strain. The power utility had no choice soon after that than to unleash a spending spree. The botched and hurried implementation has haunted the country ever since (Burkhardt & Cohen, 2019: 1). Corruption and state capture are regarded as the major reasons why coal plants Medupi and Kusile are not delivering electricity as planned and why South Africa is facing crippling blackouts. Medupi and Kusile, the third- and fourth-largest coal power plants globally, were originally scheduled to be completed in 2014 and 2012, respectively, giving

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the country an extra 9600 MW of power, enough to avoid the now incessant blackouts (Gosling, 2019: 1).

It is thus necessary to understand the problems with the implementation of the new critical infrastructure projects, when they are in strategic sectors such as energy.

2.5 The imperativeness of megaprojects in South africa’s economic survival

As a direct result of apartheid policies, South Africa’s Nationalist government created a unique internal colonial system (Wolpe, 1975: 105), thus creating two parallel economies based on race. By the early 1990s, ‘White South Africa’ had all the makings of an advanced capitalist economy resplendent with multinational corporations, a sophisticated financial sector, and a functioning welfare system. Across the colour line existed a ‘non-White South Africa’, largely barred from the formal economy, except as a cheap source of labour, and exhibiting features of an internal colony (Padayachee, 2013: 14).

Megaprojects have become indispensable to easing the developmental bottlenecks occasioned by skewed apartheid societal priorities. These behemothic schemes have been operationalised for socio-economic transformation in sectors ranging from energy and extractives to manufacturing and housing. The ‘big project mentality’ currently adopted by the government seeks to “solve a whole bunch of problems” through the megaproject framework (Ballard & Rubin, 2017: 12). South Africa’s contemporary megaprojects are being implemented amid a global project- building boom. Gargantuan projects and programmes are increasingly becoming a popular delivery model in many sectors worldwide (Flyvbjerg, 2014: 3). Siemiatycki (2017: 5) posits that megaprojects come in cycles, driven by a convergence of economics, technical advancements, political/economic ideologies, and special interest groups.

Post-1994 South Africa has largely embraced the megaproject framework, with billions of dollars financing huge projects such as the 2010 World Cup stadiums, the world’s third- and fourth-largest coal power plants (Medupi and Kusile), the Coega industrial zone, the large-scale ‘catalytic projects’ delivery strategy in housing, and extensions to ports, roads, and airports (including Cape Town, OR Tambo in Johannesburg, and King Shaka Airport in Durban), among others (Harrison & Todes, 2017: 2). Politicians have hailed megaprojects as drivers of socio-economic change, despite scant evidence to support these claims. However, it must be acknowledged that the methods of achieving the intended economic growth within a statist context are intertwined with the state’s capacity and infrastructural power. Moreover, megaprojects’ complexities and long timetables allow for periodic

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renegotiations and, what Gualini and Majoor (2007: 315) term, “frame realignment”, or the reframing of project objectives when problems arise. As such, they can be a useful tool for building legitimacy and reinforcing the power of the state, particularly in difficult circumstances. However, the implementers still have to know the common problems and how to solve them. It is thus imperative to collate these problems, using current or past projects, as South Africa does not have a very long history of megaprojects implementation, especially in the energy sector in recent times.

3. StUdY areaMegaprojects in the context of developing African countries such as South Africa are a new phenomenon; any contextual nuances have to be understood first, then collated, whereafter solutions can be sought. There are not many megaprojects in South Africa, and only two could be studied in the energy sector, since they are the only ones that qualify as megaprojects ($1 billion and above).

3.1 medupi power stationMedupi is a Greenfield coal-fired power plant project located in Lephalale, in the province of Limpopo, South Africa. It is the first dry-cooled baseload station built in 20 years by Eskom, following Kendal, Majuba, and Matimba power stations. The name ‘Medupi’ is a Sepedi (Northern Sotho language) word meaning “rain that soaks parched lands, giving economic relief”. The power station will be the third-largest coal plant in the southern hemisphere and the biggest dry-cooled power station in the world. The boiler and turbine contracts for Medupi are the largest contracts that Eskom has ever signed in its 90-year history (Eskom, 2014: 1). The planned operational life of the station is 50 years. The new power station will comprise six units with a gross nominal capacity of 800 MW each, resulting in a total capacity of 4 800 MW. Construction activities commenced in May 2007 with the official original price tag of R79 billion, with the first of the six units of the power plant planned for first power by the end of 2014. This was not met, and in 2020, the project has not completely been commissioned. The cost has since escalated to roughly R143 billion (some sources say R300 billion) (Mail and Guardian, 2019). The final figures are still disputed, though, as will be explained below. On the positive side, job creation was expected to peak at 17 000 direct jobs created during construction. The town of Lephalale’s gross domestic product (GDP) has increased by approximately 95% per year as a result of the project’s construction activities. The power station will directly grow South Africa’s GDP by approximately 0.35% per year. On a daily basis, 22 340 meals were prepared and served to ensure that labourers were well fed to keep the morale and efficiency up (Eskom, 2014: 2).

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3.2 kusile power stationThe Kusile power station project, located near the existing Kendal power station, in the Nkangala district of Mpumalanga, will comprise six units, each rated at an 800 MW installed capacity for a total capacity of 4 800 MW. Once completed, Kusile will be the fourth-largest coal-fired power station in the world. The flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) plant is an integrated chemical plant using limestone as feedstock and producing gypsum as a by-product. The plant will peculiarly use an air-cooling system to help conserve water. The operational life of the power station is expected to be 50 years (Eskom, 2014: 1). Eleven years after construction started, not one of its six 800 MW generator units was delivering power into the grid. Construction started at Kusile in 2008, and all six generation units were planned to be in commercial service by the end of 2014. However, the sad reality facing the country is that, as of July 2019, five years after 2014, only Unit 1 at Kusile had been handed over for commercial service. On the other hand, Units 2 and 3 had been synchronised to the grid; they were still undergoing mandatory testing and commissioning, meaning that the units were not in commercial service by the end of 2019 (Yelland, 2019: 1). The original cost in 2007 was estimated at R69.1 billion; by July 2016, the CTC was placed at R160 billion. However, according to Chris Yelland (Mybroadband, 2019: 1), an energy analyst in South Africa, the figures hide much information, and the real costs are shown in Table 1.

Table 1: True costs of Medupi and Kusile power stations

Costs of the projectCost to complete (CTC)Medupi Kusile

Approved CTC, excluding IPC and FGD R145 billion R161 billionEstimated cost of flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) plant R39 billion R65 billion

Capitalised interest during construction (IDC) R50 billion R226 billion

Total cost R234 billion R460 billion

Source: Mybroadband (2019: 1)

4. metHodologYThe purpose of this study was to assess the causes of cost and schedule overruns in South African critical construction megaprojects, using Medupi and Kusile energy sector megaprojects. A quantitative research design was used, in which structured questionnaire surveys enable researchers to generalise their findings from a sampled population (Trueman, 2019; Creswell, 2014). The questionnaire rated the causes of cost and schedule overruns in construction megaprojects as well as the challenges when implementing energy megaprojects. A quantitative research approach

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supports the use of interval Likert-type scales to measure data (Netemeyer, Bearden & Sharma, 2003) and allows for the use of descriptive statistics to analyse data (Brown, 2015: 11). Several data-analysis strategies are available, but, for this study, the mean scores of interval data were used to calculate the central tendency and to determine the composite (average) score of the Likert-type scale constructs (Bishop & Herron, 2015: 279).

4.1 Sampling method and response rateThe population for this study consisted of 150 built environment professionals identified who are involved in the Kusile and Medupi megaprojects (Cox, 2011; Burns & Grove, 1993). The identified professionals included 50 engineers, 40 architects, 35 quantity surveyors, ten project managers, and 15 contractors. Since there are many activities at these projects, only respondents who were directly involved with the actual building of the power plants were regarded as the target population. Seventy-five were directly involved with power-plant installation and were the target population, while the others were involved with the associated infrastructure. A sample size of 51 built environment professionals and contractors within the Kusile (25) and Medupi (26) megaprojects were randomly selected to participate in the survey (Alvi, 2016: 35). It was not possible to survey everyone, as some were simply not available. The built environment professionals included 20 engineers, 12 architects, 11 quantity surveyors, four project managers, and four contractors. Although the sample size is not valid and not within the recommended sample size of 108 for a population equal to or above 150 (Krejcie & Morgan, 1970: 608), the professionals directly involved with the actual building of the power plants chosen substantiate the size of the sample. After several reminders, only 17 – Kusile (seven) and Medupi (ten) – responses were received from the 51 respondents to whom the questionnaires were distributed. According to Moyo and Crafford (2010), contemporary built environment survey response rates range from 7% to 40%; 33% is thus acceptable for this study (see Table 2).

Table 2: Questionnaire distribution and responses

Description Discipline Number distributed

Number of respondents

% Responses received

% Responses from total

Consultants

Architects 12 5 42% 29%Quantity surveyors 11 3 27% 18%

Engineers 20 5 25% 29%Project managers 4 4 100% 24%

Contractors 4 0 0% 0Total 51 17 33% 100%

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4.2 data collectionDuring April 2018, an online structured (partly open-ended) questionnaire survey was distributed via email to built environment professionals involved in the Kusile and Medupi megaprojects in South Africa. The questionnaire consisted of four sections. The first section relates to the demographics of the respondents. Section two is a set of nine 7-point Likert-scale items relating to the causes of schedule overrun. Section three covers a set of four 5-point Likert-scale items on the causes of cost overrun. Section four entails a set of 13 constructs with 27 items measured on a 7-point Likert scale to determine the challenges in the implementation of a megaproject. The data from these measurements forms the Likert-scale items used in the descriptive analysis of this study. To reduce the respondents’ bias, closed-ended questions were preferred for sections two, three and four (Akintoye & Main, 2007: 601). The questionnaire was administered to the study sample, along with a covering letter indicating that participation in this survey was voluntary and that participants could withdraw at any point during the study.

4.3 analysis and interpretation of the dataInterval Likert scales was used to measure how strongly respondents felt regarding the statements or questions in the Likert-scale constructs. Likert scales are effective where numbers can be used to quantify the results of measuring behaviours, attitudes, preferences, and even perceptions (Wegner, 2016: 11).

For the purpose of analysis of the 7-point Likert scale, the ranges relative to the MS are defined as follows: >1.00 to ≤1.86 (strongly disagree); >1.86 to ≤2.71 (disagree); >2.71 to ≤3.57 (somewhat disagree); >3.57 to ≤4.44 (neither agree nor disagree); >4.44 to ≤5.30 (somewhat agree); >5.30 to ≤6.16 (agree), and >6.16 to ≤7.00 (strongly agree). For the purpose of analysis of the 5-point Likert scale, the ranges relative to the MS are defined as follows: >1.00 to ≤1.80 (strongly disagree); >1.80 to ≤2.60 (disagree); >2.60 to ≤3.40 (neutral); >3.40 to ≤4.20 (agree), and >4.20 to ≤5.00 (strongly agree).

The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23 (Pallant, 2015) was used to process the interval scales and to analyse them, using descriptive statistics such as means, modes, and standard deviations. The mean of responses was generated, in order to analyse and rank the causes of schedule and cost overruns as well as the challenges in implementing energy megaprojects. Only the mean of the items was used to show the central tendency and to rank the factors in order of the most agreed to the least agreed.

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4.4 limitation of the studyDuring the time of the study, Eskom, the South African public electricity utility company, was under intense public scrutiny and the subject of a number of high-profile investigations against perceived rampant graft within the organisation. The leadership instability at Eskom had occasioned a climate of mistrust to outsiders, making accessing informative sources sometimes difficult. However, those who cooperated still provided valuable information. The contractors involved would have done well to respond, but their non-cooperation compelled the study to proceed without their input. It is possible that, since their client was going through a difficult time, they felt it safe for the sake of their businesses to not participate in the study, as any negative utterance could result in disadvantageous reprisals. Nevertheless, key individuals in strategic positions were engaged with, and their input proved to be crucial to the study’s findings.

5. reSUltS and dIScUSSIon

5.1 respondents’ profileTable 3 presents the profile of respondents to the questionnaire survey. The distribution shows that the majority of the respondents have between 11 and 15 years’ work experience.

Table 3: Respondents’ work experience

No. of years’ work experience) Architect Quantity

surveyor Engineer Project manager Total

1-5 years 1 16-10 years 2 211-15 years 1 2 3 2 816-20 years 1 2 321 years and above 3 3Total respondents 5 3 5 4 17

Three architects have over 21 years’ work experience, and have 16-20 years’ and 11-15 years’ work experience, respectively. Two quantity surveyors have 11-15 years’ work experience and 1-5 years’ work experience. Two engineers have 16-20 years’ work experience, while three have 11-15 years’ work experience. Two project managers have 6-10 years’ work experience and two have 11-15 years’ work experience. The greater majority of the respondents have more experience in the construction industry.

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5.2 ranking of the factors causing schedule overrun Table 4 shows the mean score, and ranks the nine factors identified from construction literature to show which factors are mostly responsible for schedule overrun in energy megaprojects.

Table 4: The causes of schedule overrun in energy megaprojects

Factors (N = 17)(1 = strongly disagree …7 = strongly agree)

DisciplineOverall

Architect Quantity surveyor Engineer Project

managerMS Rank MS Rank MS Rank MS Rank MS Rank

Incomplete drawings 3.60 8 5.00 3 4.60 7 4.00 6 4.25 8

Design changes 4.80 6 5.33 2 5.80 3 5.75 3 5.41 3Slow client decision-making 6.00 2 5.33 2 6.20 1 5.25 5 5.76 1=

Late issue of instruction 4.40 7 4.67 4 4.80 6 5.50 4 4.82 6

Shortage of skilled labour 6.40 1 4.00 5 6.00 2 6.00 2 5.76 1=

Poor planning and scheduling 5.80 3 6.00 1 5.00 5 6.25 1 5.71 2

Labour unrest 4.80 6 4.67 4 3.40 8 5.50 4 4.53 7Shortage of manpower 5.60 4 4.67 4 5.00 5 5.50 4 5.24 5

Delay in work approval 5.20 5 4.00 5 5.40 4 6.25 1 5.29 4

Average MS (composite score) 5.22

The factors in Table 4 were ranked per discipline, and the results indicated that architects believed that the number one cause of schedule overrun is shortage of skilled labour with MS 6.40. Quantity surveyors believed that poor planning and scheduling is the number one factor causing schedule overrun with MS 6.00. The engineers ranked slow client decision-making as the number one factor causing schedule overrun with MS 6.20. Project managers ranked poor planning and scheduling as the number one factor causing schedule overrun with MS 6.25.

Shortage of skilled labour, poor planning and scheduling, and slow client decision-making were rated as the top three causes by the architects, quantity surveyors, engineers, and project managers who participated in the survey and who are also working on megaprojects in South Africa. Shortage of skilled labour, which could affect planning, design, and scheduling, may be a result of the rushed implementation of these megaprojects in South Africa. The rushed implementation does not allow adequate staffing and upskilling of key personnel. This means that the very

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foundations of the implementation process are shaky from the onset. It also cascades to other problems downstream, such as incomplete drawings, a great deal of rework, and design changes, as depicted in Table 4. This has been a very unfortunate South African trademark in the implementation of energy megaprojects.

The average mean of 5.22 demonstrates that, overall, all the factors cause schedule overrun in energy megaprojects in South Africa.

Slow client decision-making with MS 5.76 and shortage of skilled labour with MS 5.76 are ranked as the number one factors that cause schedule overrun in study area megaprojects. Poor planning and scheduling with MS 5.71, design changes with MS 5.41, and delay in work approval with MS 5.29 are ranked number two to four, respectively. The results in Table 4 show that these factors could contribute to project implementation sluggishness in South Africa. A study by Tahir et al. (2017: 3) indicated that the project teams’ slow rate in making decisions is one of the causes of delay that could contribute to project implementation sluggishness. The issues identified in this instance are indicative of project management teams that are either overwhelmed or not sufficiently knowledgeable. The results appear not to show that the influence of external factors (Musa, 2012: 6) such as labour unrest and shortage of manpower is not very strong, again putting the blame on the technical capacity of the project managers/implementers.

5.3 ranking of the factors causing cost overrun Table 5 shows the mean score, and ranks the four factors identified from construction literature to show which factors are mostly responsible for cost overrun in energy megaprojects.

Table 5: The causes of cost overrun in energy megaprojects

Factors (N = 17)(1 = strongly disagree … 5 = strongly agree)

DisciplineOverall

Architect Quantity surveyor Engineer Project

managerMS Rank MS Rank MS Rank MS Rank MS Rank

Increase in material cost 3.20 4 3.00 2 3.00 4 3.00 2 3.06 4

Inaccurate material estimate 4.60 1 2.33 3 4.40 1 3.00 2 3.76 1

Shortage of skilled labour 3.60 3 2.33 3 4.20 2 4.00 1 3.65 2

Client’s late contract award 4.00 2 3.67 1 3.20 3 2.50 3 3.35 3

Average MS (composite score) 3.45

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The factors in Table 5 were ranked per discipline, and the results indicated that architects believed that the number one cause of cost overrun is inaccurate material estimating, with MS 4.60. Quantity surveyors believed that client’s late contract award is the number one factor causing cost overrun, with MS 3.67. The engineers ranked inaccurate material estimating number one factor causing cost overrun, with MS 4.40. Project managers ranked shortage of skilled labour as the number one factor causing cost overrun, with MS 4.00. According to the consultants who participated in this study, inaccurate material estimates, shortage of skilled labour, and the client’s late contract award are regarded as the main causes of cost overrun in energy sector megaprojects in South Africa. The findings of Musa (2012: 13) show that insufficient labour skills could affect the proper estimating of materials, given the enormity and complexity of the projects. It is intriguing that there appears to be some congruence in responses from people from different disciplines. However, unlike in Malaysia (Tahir et al., 2017: 1), where there appears to be changes in laws and regulations during project execution, this does not seem to be a challenge in this instance, meaning that there is simply lack of knowledge on proper executing methods.

The average mean of 3.45 demonstrates that, overall, all the factors cause schedule overrun in energy megaprojects in South Africa.

Inaccurate material estimate, with MS 3.76, is the number one ranked factor causing cost overrun in study area megaprojects. Shortage of skilled labour, with MS 3.65, client’s late contract award, with MIS 3.35, and increase in material cost with MIS 3.06 are ranked numbers 2 to 4, respectively. It is very instructive for other megaprojects that are heavily reliant on imported components and materials that the scheduling be done properly, in order to avoid any inefficiencies that could hamper implementation. The energy products were using highly specialised components produced by niche manufacturers who might be inundated with orders from across the globe. Thus, any misestimated order would have to wait for a long time to augment the numbers. The actual issuing of contracts is hardly surprising, as the lack of experts working for the public sector could mean that it takes time to source the expertise or that the in-house expertise is inundated with the workload.

5.4 ranking of challenges in the implementation of energy megaprojects

Table 6 shows the mean score, and ranks the 27 items identified from construction literature to show the overall challenges with the implementation of energy megaprojects. From Table 6, poor site management (MS = 6.71), inadequate managerial skills (MS = 6.65), poor monitoring and control (MS = 6.53), unstable management structure (MS = 6.41), and lack of

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experience together with poor organisation structures (MS = 6.29) are the dominant challenges in South Africa.

Table 6: Challenges in the implementation of energy megaprojects

ConstructItems affecting the implementation of megaproject (N = 17) (1 = strongly disagree … 7 = strongly agree)

MS Rank Overall rank

Communication factors

Lack of communication between contractor and client 5.47 2 17

Inefficient communication 5.82 1 10

Management

Poor site management 6.71 1 1Inadequate managerial skills 6.65 2 2Poor monitoring and control 6.53 3 3Slow decision making 6.18 4 7

Personnel

Shortage of managerial and supervisory staff 6.12 3 8

Shortage of skilled labour 6.24 2 6=Lack of experience 6.29 1 5=Low motivation 5.41 4 18

OrganisationalUnstable management structure 6.41 1 4Poor organisation structure 6.29 2 5=

Planning

Client initiated change order 5.71 2 12Inadequate design specification 5.82 1 10Rework 5.71 2 12Poor labour planning 5.59 3 14

Site conditions Unforeseen ground conditions 5.53 16Weather Harsh weather conditions 4.94 20

Project-relatedProject complexity 5.65 1 13Project duration 4.94 2 20

Material-relatedShortage of equipment 5.24 2 19Poor material planning 6.24 1 6=

Other

Slow decision-making, knowledge of specifications, material ordering, approved materials, increase in material cost, and market unavailability

5.57 15

Process-related Poor procedures 5.76 11

FinancialDelayed payment to contractors/consultants 6.24 1 6=

Poor financial planning 6.06 2 9Price-related Price increase 4.94 20Average MS (composite score) 5.85

The top five challenges are management and organisational related, showing that there is not enough local management and organisational expertise in South Africa to ensure the proper planning and effective implementation

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of energy megaprojects. One essential and critical issue in successful implementation is the management and organisation of megaprojects (Söderlund et al., 2018: 9) Since these projects are critical to the economy, adequate planning for their implementation should have been carried out (Tahir et al., 2017). With MS = 6.24, respondents agreed that shortage of skilled labour; poor material planning, and delayed payment to contractors/consultants, which relates to personnel, material and financial issues, is challenging for the successful implementation of energy megaprojects in South Africa. It is imperative for Eskom that the majority of the top managers be skilled, well trained and stay employed for the long haul, in order to preserve institutional memory and to learn from their mistakes so that they can make well-informed decisions when required.

6. conclUSIon and recommendatIonSThis study assessed the causes of cost and schedule overruns as well as the challenges with the implementation of energy sector megaprojects in South Africa. The study identified the causes of schedule and cost overruns as well as the challenges militating against the project’s implementation success.

The results show that architects, quantity surveyors, engineers, and project managers, who participated in the survey and who are also working on megaprojects in South Africa, rated shortage of skilled labour, poor planning and scheduling, and slow client decision-making as the top three causes for schedule overruns. Inaccurate material estimate, client’s late contract award, shortage of skilled labour, and increase in material cost were rated the top four factors causing cost overrun in energy megaprojects.

The top five challenges in the successful implementation of energy megaprojects in South Africa were poor site management, inadequate managerial skills, poor monitoring and control, unstable management structure, poor organisation structure, and lack of experience. Most of these challenges are management and organisational related, showing that there is no adequate local management and organisational expertise in South Africa to ensure the proper planning and effective implementation of energy megaprojects.

South Africa should take the hard lessons garnered so far and accept that capacitation is needed to implement these huge critical projects. The national energy needs projections should be revised periodically, and interventions by way of new projects should never be rushed. The study has shown that, although the challenges bedevilling megaprojects are the same globally, as they are in South Africa, the South African causes of budget overflow and programme slippage are particularly preventable,

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as they appear to be underpinned by poor planning and management. The improvement of implementation performance is critical, as there are likely to be more critical megaprojects yet to be implemented. Since there are no specific solutions to mitigate the factors in existing literature, it is thus recommended that specific solutions that could mitigate the causes of cost and schedule overruns be included in future studies. The following recommendations are proposed for further studies:

• The study should investigate the effectiveness of megaprojects procurement systems in South Africa.

• The study should also investigate the level of expertise of South African construction professionals in handling complex projects with intricate interfaces.

• The study of the specific nuances of critical energy projects should be prioritised.

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How to cite: Vosloo, C. 2020. Early sustainable architecture in hanging skyscrapers – A comparison of two financial

office buildings. Acta Structilia, 27(1), pp. 144-177.

© Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Published by the UFShttp://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as

christo vosloo

Prof. Christo Vosloo, Graduate School of Architecture, Faculty of Art, Design & Architecture, University of Johannesburg, P.O. Box 524, Auckland Park, 2006, Johannesburg, South Africa. Phone: +27 (0) 11 559 1105, E-mail: <cvosloo@uj.ac.za> ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2212-1968

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/24150487/as27i1.6

ISSN: 1023-0564

e-ISSN: 2415-0487

Acta Structilia 2020 27(1): 144-177

earlY SUStaInable arcHItectUre In HangIng SkYScraperS – a comparISon of tWo fInancIal offIce bUIldIngS

Peer reviewed and revised March 2020

Published June 2020

*The authors declared no conflict of interest for the article or title

abStractReuse, or the ability to continue using an item or building beyond the initial function, is a key concept in the literature on sustainability. This implies that a building should be designed in a way that will allow it to be repurposed when changing circumstances require changes in its layout or function; being energy efficient and environmentally sensitive is not enough. The building also needs to be financially viable and the people whose lives are impacted by it should wish to have it retained. As far as flexibility of high-rise or skyscraper buildings is concerned, the structural system and layout are some, but not the only aspects that are of particular importance in this regard. Upside-down or ‘hanging’ buildings, because of the reduced use of columns, can potentially provide advantages when viewed from such a widened understanding of sustainability. Two such buildings are the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank (HSBC) headquarters building in Hong Kong and the Standard Bank Centre (SBC) in Johannesburg. The SBC stands virtually unused and in disrepair, while the HSBC remains fully operational and revered by the population of Hong Kong. This article

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compares the design and construction processes of the two buildings to determine why these two buildings ended up in such divergent situations. The aim is to make recommendations regarding structural systems and other factors that could assist in ensuring that future skyscrapers will be more sustainable, in addition to being energy and resource conserving. Furthermore, this comparison sheds some light on the historical development of the understanding of sustainability and the difference between green design and sustainable design.

Keywords: Hanging buildings, sustainable design, adaptability

abStrakHergebruik, of die vermoë om ’n produk of gebou se lewensduurte vir so lank as moontlik te verleng nadat die oorspronklike funksie of gebruikspatrone verander het, is ’n sleutelbegrip in die literatuur oor volhoubaarheid. By implikasie is dit belangrik om geboue so te ontwerp dat hul uitleg en funksies aangepas kan word om hul bruikbare leeftyd vir so lank as moontlik te verleng. Omgewingsvriendelike ontwerp is nie genoeg nie en daar is meer aspekte wat ’n rol mag speel. Ander faktore is finansiële volhoubaarheid en die verhouding tussen die gebou en diegene wat dit voortdurend gebruik. Wat toringblokke betref, speel die strukturele stelsel (onder meer) ’n sleutelrol in hierdie verband. Onderstebo- of ‘hangende’ geboue kan hier groot voordele inhou aangesien die verminderde aantal kolomme groter aanpasbaarheid beteken. Dit beteken egter nie dat hierdie tipe geboue noodwendig meer volhoubaar is nie. Twee van hierdie tipe geboue het in wyduiteenlopende situasies beland. Die gebou van die Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank (HSBC) se hoofkwartier in Hong Kong word ten volle benut en is ’n gewaardeerde landmerk in die stad; hierteenoor is daar die Standard Bank Sentrum (SBC) in Johannesburg waarvan die gebou en die openbare ruimte daaromheen grootliks in onbruik verval het. In hierdie artikel word die ontwerp asook die ontwerp- en konstruksieprosesse van die twee landmerkgeboue vergelyk ten einde te bepaal hoekom hulle in sulke kontrasterende situasies verkeer. Die doel is om aanbevelings te maak rakende die verskillende struktuurtipes en ander faktore wat die volhoubaarheid van toekomstige toringblokke kan beïnvloed. Die vergelyking sal ook lig werp op die ontwikkeling van die begrip ‘volhoubaarheid’ en die verskil tussen groen en volhoubare ontwerp.

Sleutelwoorde: Hangstrukture, volhoubare ontwerp, aanpasbaarheid

1. IntrodUctIonTwo topics that feature commonly in current conversations about architecture are sustainability and high-rise or skyscraper buildings. While some might be of the opinion that these are mutually exclusive, they are not. The noted author on, and practitioner of green architectural design Ken Yeang highlights that skyscrapers are not “energy-hungry parasites” when considering the

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entire life cycle of the building within the context of the overall interrelated framework of human and environmental systems. Furthermore, he contends that the chances of eventually recycling the materials used in this type of building are far greater, due to the quantities involved. In addition, the higher densities and associated compact cities that can result from this building type, considered with the aforementioned, mean that skyscrapers constitute a viable alternative to the low-rise, low-density alternative often associated with sustainable architecture (Yeang, 1999: 18).

A review of works on sustainable design shows that definitions and discourses on sustainability, particularly when it comes to buildings, even more so commercial buildings, tend to focus on energy efficiency and resource conserving design, and often ignore the financial and investment-related aspects, specifically the need for investments to provide sustainable returns on investment (Yeang 1999; Gauzin-Műller, 2002; Sassi, 2006; Yeang & Spector, 2011; Edwards, 2014). This is not surprising, considering the high levels of embodied energy and the resources that are trapped in high-rise buildings, aspects that could be detrimental to the lifespan of such buildings. However, a building’s financial and investment prospects are equally important aspects that need to be considered, since they could also impact on the longevity of a building (Fischer, 2010: 18).

A second aspect of sustainable design that does not feature prominently enough is the need for flexibility in design: allowing for change and a reconfiguration of the uses or layouts to accommodate changes in technology or workplace protocols which can extend the usefulness and, hence, the lifespan of a building, thereby resulting in the sustained use of the embodied energy and resources (Akadiri, Chinyio & Olomolaiye, 2012: 143).

A third aspect that could affect the longevity of a building is the attitude towards it of the people whose experience is impacted by a building. A building that is appreciated by society has a better chance of surviving changes in lifestyle and technology (Holmgren, Kabanshi & Sörqvist, 2017: 146). A much broader view of sustainable design is, therefore, proposed.

Hanging, suspension or upside-down structures, where floors are suspended from a small number of vertical supports, can provide greater flexibility, because the cross-sectional area of the hangers can be significantly smaller than that which columns in a conventional layout might have had. While a suspended structure is not the only type that can offer greater flexibility, the manner in which it is applied in a building can provide greater or lesser flexibility. Used correctly, this type of structure could thus further improve the sustainability of a high-rise building (Schierle, 2012), particularly office buildings, where reconfiguration is easier than it would be in the case of residential buildings.

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• Sassi supports Yeang’s contention that skyscrapers can be environmentally friendly and points out that land is a limited resource that must be used judiciously (Sassi, 2006: 12). However, for this to hold true, it remains imperative that new skyscrapers are designed with a broader view on sustainability. To support the call for such a broader view on the concept of sustainability, this article compares two financial office buildings built in different parts of the world to show that there are a range of aspects that can lead to more sustainable environments. Comparing these two buildings shows that the difference in the situations of the two buildings, one clearly suffering because of its ‘unsustainability’, can be found not only in their designers’ attitude to climatic and environmental matters, but also in the flexibility of their general layouts, coupled to their relation with the people whose lives are impacted by them.

• The purpose of the article is to provide a cursory oversight of the development of the construct ‘sustainability’ and to make recommendations for the design of future skyscrapers using hanging or conventional framed structures. It also aims to provide greater clarity about the difference between sustainable design and green design.

2. lIteratUre revIeWTo understand sustainable skyscraper design, it is important to review the current theory on sustainable design and skyscraper buildings. However, to fully appreciate the designs of the two buildings in question, a concise exploration of late-modernism and high-tech architecture and hanging buildings is required.

2.1 Sustainable and green design• Sustainability has been defined as “the quality of being able to

continue over a period of time” (Cambridge Business English Dictionary, 2019; Vosloo, 2020: 57) and “for humans […] the potential for long-term maintenance, of well-being, which has environmental, economic and social dimensions” (Eberhardt, 2012: 3). When considering a building from a cost point of view, its potential in this regard has, for a long time, formed part of any thorough economic feasibility assessment. However, ‘sustainability’ is equally important from an ecological and environmental point of view, due to the resources and embodied energy captured in the completed building. It is important that the new building remains usable for as long as possible, in order to maximise the benefit that can be derived from the resources and embodied energy captured by it, even if some of

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it could be recycled at the end of the building’s useful life. The term ‘sustainable design’ is often used loosely in exchange with ‘green building design’. The World Green Building Council ([s.a.]) defines a green building as “a building that, in its design, construction or operation, reduces or eliminates negative impacts, and can create positive impacts, on our climate and natural environment. Green buildings preserve precious natural resources and improve our quality of life.”. The World Green Building Council ([s.a.]) holds that a number of features can make a building ‘green’.

These include:

• Efficient use of energy, water and other resources;• Use of renewable energy, such as solar energy;• Pollution and waste reduction measures, and the enabling of reuse

and recycling;• Good indoor environmental air quality;• Use of materials that are non-toxic, ethical and sustainable;• Consideration of the environment in design, construction, and

operation;• Consideration of the quality of life of occupants in design,

construction, and operation, and• A design that enables adaptation to a changing environment.

With the exception of the last bullet, nothing relating to ensuring a long lifespan features in this description.

Yeang (1999: 8, in Vosloo, 2020: 57) holds that ‘green’ or ecological building design entails the following:

“… building with minimal environmental impacts, and where possible, building to achieve the opposite effect; this means creating buildings which have positive, reparative and productive consequences for the natural environment, while at the same time integrating the built structure with all aspects of the ecological systems of the biosphere over its entire life cycle.”

He believes that such a holistic approach is crucial to stop the human species from overloading earth’s capacity to sustain all species and natural systems.

Vallero and Brasier (2008: 168-169) hold that green architecture “allows people to become more in touch with the environment in which they live” and incorporates site characteristics and conditions (microclimate, light exposure, vegetation and urban factors) into the design.

Yet, sustainability implies more than what is said in any of the foregoing definitions of ‘green design’. At the same time, there is no generally accepted

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definition for sustainable development. One of the more readily recognised definitions, the so-called Brundtland definition, describes it as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (Edwards, 2014: 28). Foster and Partners define sustainable design as “creation of buildings which are energy efficient, healthy, comfortable, flexible in use and designed for a long life” (Edwards, 2014: 28, in Vosloo, 2020: 57). Alternative definitions describe sustainable design as “environmentally conscious, energy saving and utilises responsive and renewable materials and systems” (Newman, in Ali & Armstrong, 2008: 2), or the creation of a balanced system wherein “society and its economic activities consumes minimal natural resources with the goal of sustaining the planet for future generations” (Winchip, 2011: 7). From the foregoing, it appears that the two terms could essentially describe similar concepts. However, Sassi reminds us that “no matter how energy- and water-efficient a building might be, it becomes a waste of resources and a potential detriment to the community if no one wants to occupy it” (Sassi, 2006: 9). Thus, she links sustainability to usability, both of which are key to this study. She also includes two additional aspects, namely community and culture (Sassi, 2006: 155). Moreover, as indicated at the beginning of this section, and as underscored by Winchip, sustainability also has economic and, hence, financial and investment connotations.

More recently, Robertson (2018: 133), suggested a change in the thinking about sustainability, by proposing the adoption of a new paradigm:

“At the centre of the new paradigm must be human beings. Climate change is a social, technical and cultural problem, and the needs of people should be at the heart of our decision making. Buildings and infrastructure should be intuitive, data visualisations legible, and interactions easy and meaningful. Fundamentally, we must learn from interactions between humans and buildings to improve performance and ensure that we are meeting our needs and allowing future and distant people to meet theirs. Buildings should be robust, built to last, adaptable to functional change and climate change. They must be for us, our neighbours, our peers and our descendants, wherever they are.”

Therefore, to be sustainable, designs must not only be designed with a focus on energy usage, but the designers must also consider how human beings relate to them (Akadiri et al., 2012: 128). The designs have to be flexible and adaptable, in order to be reconfigured easily in the face of changing circumstances, practices, requirements, and technologies (Akadiri et al., 2012: 129). However, sustainable design must also take into account financial and economic requirements (Akadiri et al., 2012: 130). Clearly, ‘sustainability’ and ‘green’ have different meanings, aims, objectives, criteria, and implications.

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It must furthermore be noted that, despite the emphasis on green and/or sustainable design that has become evident since the energy crisis of 1979, the importance of considering local climatic and environmental conditions was well recognised before then. Books on the subject included Design with climate (Olgay, 1963); Man, climate and architecture (Givoni, 1967), and Thermal performance of buildings (Van Straaten, 1967). During the 1960s, even lay people knew that orientation and insulation were important for interior comfort levels.1

2.2 late-modernism and high-tech architectureJenks (1980: 6, in Vosloo, 2020: 57) dates the ultimate death of modern architecture as July 1972. This resulted in a phase to which he refers as late-modern architecture. He viewed late-modern architecture as a “single-coded” architecture in which the characteristics of modern architecture were taken to “an extreme, exaggerating the structure and technological image of the building in an attempt to provide amusement, or aesthetic pleasure” (Jenks, 1980: 8). To him, prime examples of this style are Norman Foster’s Sainsbury Centre (1974-1978) and Piano and Rogers’ Pompidou Centre (1971-1977). Jenks (1980: 32, in Vosloo, 2020: 58) claims that the first signs of the late-modern period appeared as early as 1960 and that it continued in parallel to post-modernism, as the periods that followed modernism. Based on his description of late-modernism, it could be argued that many of the recent buildings designed by Foster and Partners still fall within this category. However, the hanging buildings that were built during this period neatly fit his description (see section 5 in this article).

Quantrill (2018: 18) refers to many of the buildings listed above as exemplars of “High-Tech” architecture. She explains that, since the end of the 1960s, this term was used to describe “any conspicuous display of technical composition in buildings – especially when exposed steel structure and mechanical systems were placed on the outside of the envelope” (Quantrill, 2018: 18). To her, Foster and Partners’ HSBC Bank Building was a prime example. She cites Davies who held that

“[a]nalyses of high-tech architecture tend [sic] to trace an arc from the so-called experimental architecture of Archigram and Cedric Price, through cultural buildings such as the Centre Pompidou, to projects for industrial clients or financial clients like HSBC, a lineage that depicts the transformation of anti-establishment ideas about flexibility and freedom into instruments of capitalist expansion” (Davies, cited in Quatrill, 2018: 118).

1 The author can remember his mother (a housewife) insisting that their house had to be ‘north-facing’.

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While the HSBC Bank Building and others (see above) might fit neatly into the high-tech category, as described above, many of the most prominent hanging buildings do not fit this description, but they comply with Jencks’ criteria. Thus, on the whole, hanging buildings can be described as late-modern buildings.

2.3 Hanging buildings Hanging buildings were mostly constructed between 1969 and 1985. The Torre Cepsa in Madrid, designed by Foster and Partners and built between 2003 and 2009 (Foster & Partners, [s.a.]a), is the most recent example.

While the large number of suspension bridges found throughout the world meant that suspended structures were not unusual, this period saw hanging structures becoming more common, due to the popularity of late-modernism and high-tech architecture. Some of the buildings and structures constructed in this way during this period include the Torres Colon in Madrid, by Antonio Lamela (1976) (Palau, 2017 [s.p.]); Rhone and Iredale’s Westcoast Transmission Tower in Vancouver (1969); the Standard Bank Centre, Johannesburg, by Hentrich and Petschnigg (1970) (see Figure 2); the Munich Olympic Stadium, by Frei Otto (1972); the BMW Headquarters in Munich, by Karl Schwanzer (1973); Gunnar Birkerts’ Federal Reserve Bank building in Minneapolis (1973); Bea and Walter Betz’s Hypo Bank in Munich (1980); Suncorp Place in Sydney, by Joseland & Gilling Architects (1982) (Suncorp Place, [s.a.]); Torre Cepsa in Madrid, by Foster and Partners, and the Hong Kong Shanghai Bank, by Norman Foster (1986) (Schierle, 2012; Archdaily ([s.a.]); Duprè (2013: 92) (see Figure 1).

The advantages of hanging structures are the following (Vosloo, 2020: 58-59; Zunz, Heydenrych & Michael, 1971: 30):

• The ground floor can be free of columns and load-bearing walls (the main vertical support excluded). Should the ground floor be enclosed in glass, the inside could merge with its surroundings.

• The absence of columns results in an increase in the useable or lettable floor area of each floor, enhancing the feasibility of the project.

• The reduction in support structure could result in increased flexibility.• Hangers can have a smaller sectional area than columns, giving

better space utilisation.• The elements that transmit the loads to ground level are normally

heavily pre-stressed and, therefore, able to resist bending moments imparted by lateral forces.

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• This method allows for top-down construction and, in the case of multiple stacks or banks (such as the SBC), working at different levels simultaneously.

Another advantage of this type of structure is that it, like suspension bridges, allows building in areas where site constraints such as rights of way and other servitudes might make building using conventional load-bearing or framed structures difficult if not impossible (Miller, [s.a.]: online)

Various suspended high-rise structural systems exist (Scherlie, 2012: 2). Typically, two structural types are often used in skyscrapers (Scherlie, 2012: 2-7): a central core from which is hung the different floors, either by cables from the top as with the Torres Colon (the hideous green cap visible in Figure 4 was not part of the original design) or prestressed concrete hangers as at the Standard Bank Centre. Alternatively, the support structure was split in two and moved to the (normally eastern and western) sides with cross-members acting as supports from which the floors are suspended. This option was used in the Suncorp Place, HSBC building, and Torre Cepsa.

3. reSearcH metHodologYThe article compares two financial office buildings to identify aspects that can lead to more sustainable environments emanating from more financially sustainable buildings. The study made use of a qualitative comparative case study design based on literature reviews. Boote and Beile (2005: 5) believe that “[a] thorough, sophisticated literature review is the foundation and inspiration for substantial, useful research”. In this study, two buildings built in different parts of the world, but with many commonalities, are compared as cases that used hanging or conventional framed structures as building design. The reason for collecting qualitative data is to elaborate on specific findings from the comparative analysis such as similarities and differences of sustainable design among the two buildings (cases) (Yin, 2014).

3.1 rationale for selecting case studiesIn this article, sustainability will be considered with the aim of identifying aspects that can lead to more sustainable environments emanating from more financially sustainable buildings. This will be done by comparing two buildings built in different parts of the world, but with many commonalities. They were both commissioned by commercial banks that were founded during the colonial period in British colonies; they were both intended to be symbols of their owners’ financial success; they both came to be landmark buildings in their respective cities; their physical form was influenced by the desire of the respective cities to create more public open space in exchange for relaxed height restrictions in the most sought-after areas in their cities; both demanded considerable innovation and ingenuity from

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their designers and builders; both were designed by foreign architects; they shared the same (foreign) structural designers (Ove Arup and Partners, London); both were designed at a time when the first warnings of imminent socio-economic, political and technological changes became part of the academic and social discourse. One building is standing derelict and for the most part unused, while the other is still fully functional.

The buildings are the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank (HSBC) Headquarters building in Hong Kong, designed by Foster and Partners (1978-1985) (Figure 1) and the Standard Bank Centre (SBC) in Johannesburg, designed by Heintrich-Petschnigg and Partners (1966-1970) (Figure 2).

Figure 1: NHBC Building, Hong Kong Figure 2: Standard Bank Centre, JohannesburgSource: Image by author Source: Image by author

3.2 case study 1: The Standard bank centre (Sbc)In 1967, the Johannesburg City Council amended the Town Planning Regulations for the Central Business District (CBD). They sought to ease the congestion in the area. To this end, they revised regulations, in order to allow higher buildings in return for the creation of public open space around the new building (Chipkin, 2008: 136; Vosloo, 2020: 60).

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Standard Bank sought to build a prestigious new headquarters building in the Johannesburg CBD. In doing so, they intended to build a high-rise or skyscraper building as a symbol of their success. To give effect to their ambitions, they set down two objectives:

• To construct a prestigious headquarters building that could bring national, and possibly international, recognition for them.

• The building must provide an adequate return on investment.• Furthermore, they required that the new building must• incorporate the bank’s executive offices and the bank’s most

important divisions;• include the branch of the bank operating on the site for quite some

time;• provide office space of a high standard, and• maximise the site’s opportunities to the limits imposed by the Town

Planning restrictions (Zunz et al., 1971: 30; Hentrich, 1970: 16).In terms of the revised regulations, to be allowed a high-rise building (25-30 storeys), Standard Bank was required to restrict the tower’s coverage to less than 26% of the area of the site. Figure 3 shows the location of the building and Figure 4 shows the site layout.

Figure 3: Location of Standard Bank BuildingSource: Author, based on map from mapz.com

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Figure 4: Site layout of Standard Bank CentreSource: Author, based on figure in Hentrich, 1970: 15

The first step taken was the appointment of a planning consultant who was asked to undertake a number of pre-design studies. Prof. Wilfred Mallows, the planning consultant, made several recommendations; the most relevant for this article was that the design should opt for a deep-space office plan and that the lower ground (or first basement) floor should have easy access and commercial activity (Zunz et al., 1971: 30; Vosloo, 2020: 61).

Prof. Mallows recommended that Hentrich-Petschnigg and Partners from Düsseldorf, Germany, be appointed as architects. The motivation was that the firm was renowned for their skyscraper buildings such as the Dreischeibenhaus (1957-1960) or the Thyssen Steelworks Building, one of the most noteworthy post-war buildings in Germany (Zunz et al., 1971: 30). Ove Arup and Partners (London-Johannesburg) were appointed as structural engineers (Hentrich, 1970: 6).

3.2.1 design and layoutThe architects ignored Prof. Mallows’ recommendation regarding deep-space office layouts. They developed a concept that prioritised the creation of “an open plaza with no obstructions at groundfloor [sic] level at all except the core of the tower” (Hentrich, 1970: 27). No commercial activity would be

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included at ground level and even the banking hall was relegated to the first level below the piazza, albeit linked spatially with the entrance foyer via a multi-volume space (see Figures 3 and 4). Hentrich describes their design approach as follows:

“In order to reduce the office tower to a structural minimum on ground level [and] to create a plaza as open as possible, the architects decided to design the entire building as a hanging structure [...] the only structures at street level are the four cores measuring 5,48 m by 5,48 m” (Hentrich, 1970: 27).

Unfortunately, this preoccupation with a minimalistic open space resulted in a space devoid of any planting or other features that would have encouraged its usage by the general population (see Figure 4). The question is: Beyond providing spatial relief, what is the advantage of a ‘public’ open space if the public cannot use it? Hence, the aims of the City Council were also ignored.

3.2.2 Structural designThe main support structure comprised four squares housing vertical movement facilities and service ducts. The four squares supported the 35-storey, 139 m high office tower. The tower is square in shape with the four corners cut out (Zunz et al., 1971: 30). Thirty floors are used for office space. They are arranged in three banks of ten floors, with the remaining floors used for services. Each of the ten floor banks is suspended from eight reinforced concrete cantilever beams connected to the central core (see Figure 5). Precast and prestressed concrete hangers were used to support the precast, prestressed concrete floors in combination with the central core (Zunz et al., 1971: 31). The basement comprised five floors, the first level being used for banking and the remaining floors housing parking and technical facilities. The underside of the first-floor slab was set at 10.8 m above ground level, in order to augment the spatial character of the design concept.

The final form of the building was the result of the design of the structural system (see Figure 5). The more common suspension system that utilised an umbrella-like structure at roof level could not be used, as it would interfere with the service runs (Zunz et al., 1971: 31; Vosloo, 2020: 63). It was thus decided to use the prestressed concrete cantilever beam system mentioned earlier. Mechanical plant rooms are housed in the spaces between the cantilever beams.

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Figure 5: Standard Bank Centre: Section and isometric showing structural systemSource: Artchist, 2016: online

3.2.3 Sustainable elementsThe initial planning started in 1963, construction started in 1966, and the building was completed (ahead of schedule) in March 1970. While this was well ahead of the current focus on green/sustainable or environmentally compatible design, the building did include steps to reduce the energy load of the building: two thermal storage systems to serve all the air-handling plants were included. Through their use, energy costs could be reduced by heating the water at night when the unit cost of electricity was lower. However, one of the fundamental principles of creating shelter (let alone ‘architecture’) has always been to attempt to create comfortable environmental conditions with the least possible use of energy. The architects’ brief required an ‘adequate’ return on investment, which implies keeping the operating costs as low as possible. Much of this has always been part of good design and common sense; architects cannot claim that these aspects were not important in ‘those days’. Hence, the choice of a square floor plan (see Figure 6) (meaning that up to 50% of all windows face either east or west), as a result of the central core and supporting structure, must be questioned, particularly when considering that this type of layout has a negative impact on the flexibility of the office areas. Surprisingly, the central core type of layout remains popular for high-rise buildings.

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Figure 6: Standard Bank Centre: Office floor planSource: Author, based on figure in Hentrich, 1970: 15

While the extensive use of concrete in the external skin of the building – a feature that is commendable, given the large diurnal temperature variations in Johannesburg – is appropriate and commendable because of the moderating effect this will have on interior temperature fluctuations, the windows on the eastern and western sides did not receive any treatment that would have reduced the heat gain of the offices on those sides. This would have increased the heat load and, eventually, the operating costs of the building. The inclusion of the thermal storage tanks indicates that this imperative was not lost on the entire design team, but that it did not suit the simplistic architectural and structural concept not to have all elevations looking the same. Another positive was that, by dividing the office floors into three banks with mechanical and electrical plants housed in the intermediate floors, the effectiveness of the air-conditioning systems was enhanced by the relatively short service runs. Likewise, the negative impact of the “tyranny of the central lift core” (Sudjic, 2010: 178) on the productivity and job satisfaction of the workforce was not considered. This type of layout isolates each floor from the others, interfering with the flow of information and people through the building. The exception, in this instance, is the spatial linking evident between the banking hall in

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the first basement level and the double-volume entrance foyer. As with the disregard of the needs and comfort of the general public displayed by not providing facilities that would enhance the use of the public space, the architects did not pay enough attention to the productivity, comfort and satisfaction of their clients’ workforce.

This elegant and sculptural building (see Figure 7) became one of the iconic skyscrapers in Johannesburg. Sadly, Hentrich’s disregard for Prof. Mallows’ suggestion that the plan should allow for deep-space office layouts as well as the inflexible layout meant that, when Standard Bank took the decision to build a new headquarters building in 1978 (only eight years after moving to the Standard Bank Centre!), the brief (to Prof. Mallows’ firm), among other things, was for the following (Standard Bank, 1982: 8; Vosloo, 2020: 76):

• A low-rise building that allowed for quick and easy vertical movement, and

• A deep-space layout that would provide a completely flexible office layout system.

Standard Bank chose to remain in the central city, as did some of the other major South African banks, and the new building is only a few street blocks to the south of the SBC. Currently, the building is mostly unused. One of the reasons mentioned in informal conversation with an architect, who was commissioned to conduct a survey of the building during the recent past, was that asbestos was used in a number of applications and that the removal and replacement thereof was financially unviable.

It seems that the bank had learned a lesson; buildings have to be designed in ways that will ensure their continued and sustained use, and that consider the comfort and productivity of those working in it (Akadiri et al., 2012: 128). Planning and feasibility studies should, from the outset, consider the complete life cycle of the building, as proposed by Yeang (1999: 18; Akadiri et al., 2012: 130; Vosloo, 2020: 76). This should include considering where technology is going and what future users might require.

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Figure 7: Standard Bank Centre at completionSource: Image by J.G. Boss, in Hentrich, 1970: 47

3.3 case study 2: The Hong kong and Shanghai bank (HSbc) building

3.3.1 design and layoutDuring the early 1980s, discussions on Hong Kong’s future started between the British and Chinese governments (Quantrill, 2018: 120). The discussions led to concerns and uncertainty about the territory’s future. During this period of uncertainty, the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation headquarters building (1978-1985) was being constructed and served as a statement of confidence. The aim was to create the best bank building in the world (Foster & Partners, [s.a.]b). It is situated at 1 Queen’s Road Central, Central Hong Kong, on one of the most prominent sites on Hong Kong Island, facing onto Statue Square, with no other buildings blocking its view of Victoria Harbour (see Figure 8) (HSBC Building, [s.a.]). Due to this unique situation, a Feng Shui geomancer was brought in, which resulted in a process of questioning as to what should be the nature of banking in Hong Kong and how this should be expressed in built form. “In doing so it virtually reinvented the office tower” (Foster & Partners, [s.a.]).

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Figure 8: Location of Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank BuildingSource: Author, based on map from mapz.com

One of the steps taken was to hoist the bank up (therefore, using a hanging structure) in such a way that it would allow the space beneath the banking hall to link to Statue Square, also allowing the public to get a glimpse into the interior of the building as they passed beneath it (Sudjic, 2010: 171). In doing so, the airflow in this part of this predominantly hot and humid city was improved and sea breezes allowed deeper into the city. The welcoming gesture has resulted in the space becoming a public meeting place for Filipino women, in particular. Foster negotiated a higher plot ratio with the planning authorities to extend the public space underneath the building, which increased the value of the tower.

Another drastic departure was Foster’s insistence that the lift shafts be moved from the centre to the sides of the building, thereby ending the “tyranny of the central lift core” (refer to Figure 9) (Sudjic, 2010: 178). This was because he

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realised that this centralised arrangement was inflexible, limiting the way in which the floors could be used (Sudjic, 2010:178). The internal movement pattern was further altered by only allowing the high-speed lifts to stop at the five double height floors. From here, movement is by escalator (Foster & Partners, 2005: 248). Another was the decision to incorporate a bridge-type structure, so that the new structure could span right across the old banking hall (Foster & Partners, 2005: 248). Foster regards this as “quite an efficient building in energy terms, with its extensive use of shading, displacement ventilation and sea water cooling” (Hongkong and Shanghai Bank, 2011).

Figure 9: Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank Building: Typical lower stack floor planSource: Author, based on Foster & Partners, [s.a.]b

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3.3.2 Structural designDeveloping this idea led to the adoption of what was known as the ‘chevron scheme’: a steel structure, supported by double sets of masts comprising four sets of inclined steel columns (see Figure 10). The steel masts are linked by suspension trusses (Pawley, 1999: 75). The floors could be hung from this structure, thereby keeping the office floors as open and flexible as possible (Pawley, 1999: 169). This aspect was greatly enhanced by the decision to move the service and movement cores to the edges of the building.

Figure 10: Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank Building: Structural systemSource: Foster & Partners, [s.a.]b

The decision to use a hanging structure was also a result of the time-related pressures: it would allow construction to take place upwards and downwards at the same time (Foster & Partners, 2005: 248). The speed at which the building had to be constructed also led to the large-scale use of prefabrication (Foster & Partners, 2005: 248) and modules being shipped in from, among other places, the United Kingdom.

Financial viability was of great importance and various studies were undertaken in an effort to include the cost advantage of various pioneering design aspects. Nonetheless, massive cost overruns occurred (Quantrill, 2018: 119). At completion, the cost per square meter was substantially higher than that of other bank headquarters buildings. However, a specialist consultant persuaded the bank’s board that it was satisfactorily cost effective and that it would provide the bank with a positive rate of return (Quantrill, 2018: 122): “Exploited to offset the costs undertaken in the production of a

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new space for financial operations, flexibility and precision assumed value in and of themselves” (Quantrill, 2018: 132).

Planning regulations also influenced the design in other ways: the profile of the tower was a response to regulations seeking to prevent overshadowing at ground level. These regulations influenced the decision to divide the building into three bays, each of varying height (see Figure 11). Hence, the central bay rises to 47 floors, while the bay closest to Statue Square contains only 28, and the one on the opposite side comprises 35 floors (Sudjic, 2010: 178).

Figure 11: Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank Building: Side viewSource: Foster & Partners, [s.a.]b

At the lower levels, the floor slabs in the centre bay make space for a 52 metre-high cathedral-like space (see Figure 12). This is the space visitors

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enter after rising from the plaza via escalators (refer to Figure 9). At the top of this space is a set of mirrors that are used to reflect light into and down the atrium space (Pawley, 1999: 78).

Transparency is a strong theme permeating the project. A transparent building was part of the original concept (Quantrill, 2018: 125). Developing and testing various glazing systems received a substantial part of the budget (Quantrill, 2018: 125). Even the ‘underbelly’ (the floor of the atrium) was made of glass, allowing the sun that was reflected down this space by the ‘sun scoop’ mirror to reach street level. The design used a dramatic aluminium-clad steel exoskeleton and glazed curtain walls (Hongkong & Shanghai Bank Headquarters, [s.a.]). The use of lightweight materials here and in the building structure is appropriate from a heat-retention viewpoint when considering that the building is located in a hot, humid climate zone with low diurnal temperature variations.

Although basic open plan offices have been widely criticised (Open Plan, 2020), and Quantrill expresses her misgivings about the success of the focus on transparency and continuous sight-lines (Quantrill, 2018: 118). Sudjic2 (2010: 176) regards this building as the clearest expression of the view that

“architecture is an industrial process in which the ultimate objective is the creation of highly serviced, limitlessly flexible internal spaces and where formal values are eschewed in favour of exteriors that are made legible, expressing how they are made and what they do”.

2 Deyan Sudjic OBE is a noted architecture and design critic.

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Figure 12: Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank Building: Atrium and banking hallSource: Foster & Partners, [s.a.]b

3.3.3 Sustainable elementsArup ([s.a.]), the structural engineers of the project, contend that “though completed more than 20 years ago, is still considered one of the most sophisticated and technology-savvy buildings in the world”. They list the following as elements that, technology wise, make this a sustainable building: using sunlight through a light scoop to light up the atrium to the public plaza; an eight-metre diameter tunnel [constructed beneath the building] to provide seawater for use in the air-conditioning system, and an underfloor air-conditioning system (access flooring).

While the view across Statue Square determined the orientation of the building, it also made it possible to have the main views toward the North and South Victoria Peak and Victoria Harbour, the most important natural landmarks in the area. The decision to move the service and movement

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cores to the perimeter of the building meant that they took up much of the problematic east- and west-facing sides. Sunlight was drawn into the heart of the building. Yet, despite having the basics in place, the building incorporates what is described as “a flexible assembly of components, comprising perimeter glazing, [including adjustable blinds], air conditioning, ceiling and lighting systems floor outlets, [and] partitions ...” (Quantrill, 2018: 131), in order to provide “precise environmental management” that could be operated locally. Given Hong Kong’s climate and the deep-space layout achieved, this is not surprising.

Quantrill (2018: 131) believes that “the substantial cost to the building’s envelope and environmental systems indicated their importance to the client”. Furthermore, the clients’ strong forward-looking stance was augmented by the adaptability offered by the flexible layout and the provisions made for changing technology and procedures by including features such as moveable suspended floor plates (access flooring) with adaptable power sockets and air-conditioning outlets (Quantrill, 2018: 122). The use of access floors meant that ventilation could be directed with greater accuracy, thus reducing the quantity of cooled air that had to be provided. It also reduced the fire rating and the need for firewalls, because the absence of suspended ceilings meant that they were no longer required.

The clients insisted on an envelope that acted spatially, materially and visually to stimulate productivity. Employee satisfaction was a priority. As a result, design and material development processes focused not only on technology, but also on cultural issues. They also regarded energy efficiency as critical as was a precisely controlled interior climate – at minimal cost. Employee gratification was viewed as a direct link to commercial gains (Quantrill, 2018: 130). Various alternative glazing systems were proposed and tested to ensure good isolation, coupled with quality views from the inside. The architects, in turn, strove for transparency and refused to accept proposals to use reflective glazing. The building’s floor space is configured around a central indoor atrium surrounded by blocks of office floors clustered as a series of vertically stacked clusters. The boundaries of the office clusters are, like those of the SBC, visually expressed on the exterior of the building. However, in this instance, the divisions have been made more pronounced by large triangular trusses framing double height floors that serve as communal areas.

Although the focus was on creating a flexible and efficient layout supported by electro-mechanical systems to enhance comfort and productivity, the design of the building incorporates links to anchor it into the local landscape and, in doing so, also demonstrates sensitivity to local spiritual beliefs.

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Quantrill (2018: 131) submits that “[u]pon completion, the HSBC headquarters promulgated a paradigm of environmental efficiency for commercial prosperity”.

4. dIScUSSIonIn considering these buildings, both held in high regard by the architectural community, it would be unfair not to conduct such an analysis without bearing in mind that the design of the SBC started in 1964, whereas that of the HSBC started in 1979. The 15-year period between these two dates saw many and dramatic changes, including the rise in computer and communications development and the energy crisis of 1979. Furthermore, it must be noted that the buildings are both viewed in hindsight through the lens of 2020, almost 80 years after the start of the SBC’s planning process. It is also pertinent to bear in mind that the comparison is not done to determine which is superior, but rather to identify the lessons that can be learnt from the current situations of both buildings and the long-term effects of the various design decisions taken at the design stages of the buildings.

4.1 design and layoutWhile the buildings share a number of common attributes (see 3.1), they also differ in a number of ways: their designers responded differently to the physical, environmental, technological, social and urban contexts in which they were conceptualised and designed. The HSBC was anchored and rooted in the city’s public spatial system, geography and beliefs, among other things, and took great pains to include the local population in the building and to find solutions that satisfied the needs of their clients and their own priorities. By contrast, the designers of the SBC ignored all local needs, climate and recommendations and gave the ‘Johannesburgers’ a minimalistic design, more suited to the cold climates of northern Europe.

4.2 Sustainable elementsThe architects of the HSBC foresaw and made specific provision for the dramatic developments in the application of computer technology. While the SBC did include a computer centre (Hentrich, 1970: 27) and a central control facility (Hentrich, 1970: 59), there is no indication that the architects made any attempt to provide for the technological developments that some forward thinking or life-cycle planning would have indicated. While it might be unfair to expect those responsible for the design of the SBC to have foreseen the dramatic changes in information technology that took place in the years following the building’s completion, they could have done more to allow for future developments. The building was designed for mainframe computer systems, indicating that the designers were aware of the latest

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technologies and that they cannot claim complete ignorance regarding future changes. Designers (in this instance, architects and engineers) have to be forward-looking, because our buildings need to remain usable for at least 50 to 100 years, if not more. In fairness, those from Standard Bank who compiled the brief and signed off on the final design must share in the blame in this regard. One would expect that, with open-plan offices becoming more popular in the 1960s (Open Plan, 2020), they too should have been aware that technology and workplace protocols were undergoing rapid development. In addition, the SBC designers blatantly disregarded suggestions that would accommodate changes in the working environment and opted for a square plan form with central movement and a services core, while paying no regard to orientation. The only possible reason could be that they were seduced by the simplistic sculptural form that would result from it.

Having created the required public open space, the SBC architects finished it off as a minimalistic open space with no regard for the ‘public’ aspect, particularly the need for shade and seating that would have invited the public to use this space. The banking hall was relegated to the first basement level with limited commercial facilities to support it. The general population was not important to them and neither were any local traditions or beliefs or the comfort of the workers in the building – particularly those who were unlucky enough to end up with east- or west-facing offices. The building is an event in itself, an exercise in navel gazing that disregards the city and its people.

By contrast, the architects for the HSBC building embraced the local population and endeavoured to create the maximum open space possible for their benefit, although they too could have done more to provide street furniture that would have provided comfort to the users of the space. In addition, the space so created becomes part of a network of public open spaces in the heart of this congested city. Not only is the project anchored in a spatial network, the spatial network purposely recognises local beliefs and sensitivities. Furthermore, it takes in the most dramatic views and geographic features of its environment.

The HSBC building also incorporates the latest technology, often at great cost, to ensure that the building will remain functional over the long term by having a layout that is flexible and that allows for functional and technological changes. Furthermore, the comfort of those working in the building is important: they are afforded opportunities to adjust climatic conditions; views of their city and its environment was a priority.

The HSBC banking hall becomes a celebrated and dramatic space, the most prominent in the building; clients are welcomed into the building and their experience is prioritised. The building has become a popular landmark in the city and the population warms to it, even choosing it as a congregation point. In this way, it becomes a revered international landmark that achieves

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the initial aims of both the bank and the architects: it is regarded by many as the best bank building in the world and an example of how office towers should be designed in order to remain functional. In addition, it provides the architects with the knowledge that informs future hanging structure skyscraper designs.

4.3 Structural designWhile both buildings have hanging structures, the central vertical support chosen for the SBC has a number of negative implications, particularly in creating an inflexible layout and a plan form that is not suited to the local climate. It complicates the floor-to-floor movement of employees who have to wait for lifts to arrive, creating not only frustration but also negatively impacting on productivity. In the HSBC, the vertical supports (including lift shafts) are moved to the eastern and western sides of the building, the sides not suited for offices, with cross-members acting as supports from which the floors are suspended. In this way, the central part of the building is cleared, allowing for greater flexibility. Vertical movement is facilitated by high-speed lifts that only stop at certain floors. Movement between the intermediate floors is by escalator, avoiding productivity-sucking and frustration-causing delays.

5. compare WItH cUrrent SUStaInabIlItY deSIgnIn order to compare the two buildings in light of current views on sustainability, the two buildings have been compared on the basis of Robertson’s (2018: 133) construct (see 2.1 above) extended to include economical sustainability: “At the centre of the new paradigm must be human beings. Climate change is a social, technical and cultural problem, and the needs of people should be at the heart of our decision making.”

In this regard, the HBSC building stands head and shoulders above the SBC and, on this score, the time difference between the buildings cannot be offered as an excuse for the SBC’s failure. The human experience has been key to most (if not all) of the architectural theories. With the exception of the new public open space, the building does not provide the general public much benefit or positive response other than the novelty of the ‘floating’ superstructure and a sculpturally elegant building to appreciate and admire. The public space provides no more than spatial relief and a shortcut to those who cross it diagonally. Nearly half of the people working in the building will do so in offices that, at certain times, could be uncomfortable, whereas all will be frustrated while waiting for lifts as they endeavour to move vertically through the building. On the positive side, most of them will sit next to a window, allowing them views out of the building (of neighbouring buildings).

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Much has been written about the negative aspects of open-plan offices as originally conceptualised; this, at least, they will be spared.

The HSBC, by contrast, in addition to providing an open space, does it in a way that extends the current open spatial structure, allows cooling breezes to penetrate deeper into the city, and offers the experience of sunlight in this open space, even though it is underneath the building. Those who use the space are made part of it by being allowed to look up into the atrium space into the banking hall. It also considers the spiritual and philosophical sensibility of the population (Feng Shui). The comfort and experience (views and comfort) of those who work inside were a priority of both the architects and the bank.

“Buildings and infrastructure should be intuitive, data visualisations legible, and interactions easy and meaningful. Fundamentally, we must learn from interactions between humans and buildings to improve performance and ensure that we are meeting our needs and allowing future and distant people to meet theirs” (Robertson, 2018: 133).

Hiding the SBC’s banking hall – the interface between the bank and its customers – in a basement as part of a tiny shopping area that cannot in any way be sustainable is counter-intuitive and transmits the wrong message and complicates interactions. On the other hand, turning the banking hall into the centrepiece of the building, opening it up for all to see and admire, results in an experience to look forward to, giving customers the feeling that they are valued and that the bank is not only about top management. In addition, the exterior of the building has become a landmark that transmits the institution’s symbolic technological prowess to the locals and visitors arriving by ferry or when looking down at the core of Hong Kong’s historical centre.

“Buildings should be robust, [economically viable over the short, medium and long term], built to last, adaptable to functional change and climate change. They must be for us, our neighbours, our peers and our descendants, wherever they are” (Robertson, 2018: 133).

In 1983, the cost of the HSBC was estimated to be eight billion Hong Kong Dollars (Quantrill, 2018: 121). At the time, it was the most expensive building ever constructed. A specialist consultant appointed by the HSBC concluded that the building was “satisfactorily cost-effective” (Quantrill, 2018: 120). Time has confirmed this assertion. Quantrill (2018: 131) holds that “[u]pon completion, the HSBC headquarters promulgated a paradigm of environmental efficiency for commercial prosperity”. However, one may ask: Has it stood the test of time? The renowned German architectural journal Detail contends that it is one of only a few buildings that seemingly do not age (Hongkong and Shanghai Bank, 2011). In the same interview, Foster (2011) reports that the design

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“... has given the Bank huge flexibility. For example, they were able to introduce a large trading floor quite easily and without disruption – something that could never have been anticipated when the building was designed. No traditional bank headquarters building has anything like this degree of flexibility, which is a consequence of relegating the normal central core to the edges of open, flexible floors. Interestingly, if you talk to the Bank, they will tell you that they link their consistent financial growth and strong world rating to the way the building has been able to adapt to suit changing needs.”

Despite Standard Bank’s insistence that the building should be financially viable, this also is not enough to assure its sustainability. The current state of the two buildings confirms the validity of Robertson’s construct as extended by the author, and as the above analysis confirms, the need for a broader understanding of what constitutes ‘sustainability’ as argued for in the introduction of this article.

6. conclUSIonSFrom a sustainability point of view, hanging structures can have a number of important advantages. They can allow for a high degree of flexibility, which could significantly extend the usable lifespan of a building; can allow building in areas that otherwise would have been considered impossible to build on (resulting in the optimal use of land in city areas), and create public open spaces that will enhance the urban quality and experience in densely developed areas. Moreover, they can create qualitative positive and visually dramatic spaces that will resonate with communities, thereby creating an affinity between the building and the people affected by it.

An earlier analysis of the SBC (Vosloo, 2020: 75) found that this building fails when evaluated from a green design perspective when analysed using Yeang’s model (Yeang, 1999: 65), and that its inflexible structural layout, particularly the central position of its main services and movement core, a layout often used with hanging structures, has contributed, directly and indirectly by forcing substantial east- or west-facing exposure, to its unsustainability and, hence, its current state.

Based on the analysis presented in this article, it was found that the SBC designers’ preoccupation with the building and its structure led to a building that turns its back on its local environment, its public, its users and those working in it. Furthermore, it was found that the designers did not foresee or provide for the dramatic changes in technological, environmental, social and political environments which the late 20th century would hold. There is hardly any evidence of forward-thinking or pro-active design. Thus, the design led to an unsustainable building, seen from any particular understanding of sustainability. The main causes of the current state of the building are

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the overtly simplistic concept and the preoccupation of all involved with solving the technical and construction challenges without considering the ‘bigger picture’. From a sustainability viewpoint, the advantages a hanging structure could offer were lost.

The HSBC building did not fall into this mode of thinking. The architects

• recognised it as an integral part of the city of Hong Kong and its belief systems;

• responded to the local geographical context; • understood it as a part of global technological developments; • allowed for development and future changes, and • showed a concern for the people who will use and even those who

will simply pass by it. In this way, it became a building that “the community [...] wants to occupy” (Sassi, 2006: 9). Groups regularly meet and have gatherings in the building (Foster and Partners, 2005: 248). Moreover, it remains fully functional and revered as one of the key buildings of Hong Kong. This building complies with the criteria for sustainability.

This comparison provides lessons to architects and the architects of skyscrapers with sustainability objectives, in particular. First, hanging structures can enhance the sustainability of high-rise buildings, but the hanging (or other) structure selected must be configured to allow for a high level of flexibility. Secondly, the design must respond to the socio-geographical and economic contextual issues listed above if the building is to be sustainable. Feasibility studies should regard associated costs as opportunity costs, since they create value that will ensure the sustainability of the project.

However, despite this experience to tap into, many new skyscraper developments such as London’s One Blackfriars, the One World Trade Centre in New York, and Strata SE1 buildings still fall foul to “the tyranny of the central lift core” (Sudjic, 2010: 178). Many still regard sustainable design as a purely technological and material matter only. The truth is that all the fundamental attributes associated with ‘good’ architecture are required for a building to be truly sustainable, but that might not suffice.

Finally, it has been shown that the current understanding of sustainable design has developed to now include a wide variety of aspects, including human and economic/financial concerns: the relationship between the building and the natural environment, and economic, cultural and communal considerations, while green design concerns itself almost exclusively with the relationship with the natural environment and natural systems. Therefore, a building can be ‘green’, but not ‘sustainable’. It is unlikely that it can be ‘sustainable’ without including significant attention to ‘green’ aspects.

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How to cite: Ahmed, A. 2020. Book review. Architectures of informality. Acta Structilia, 27(1), pp. 178-178.

© Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Published by the UFShttp://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as

Book review • Boekresensie

ar.Sayed ahmed

Ar.Sayed Ahmed, MA, Anhalt University of Applied Science, Dessau, Germany. Phone: 01707219556, E-mail: <ar.sayedahmed@gmail.com>

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/24150487/as27i1.7

ISSN: 1023-0564

e-ISSN: 2415-0487

Acta Structilia 2020 27(1): 178-178

arcHItectUreS of InformalItY

editor: Ivan Kucina

Series: Dessau International Architecture (DIA) 2018

publisher: DIA, Graduate School, Anhalt University of Applied Sciences

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The book, written by students from the Dessau International Architecture Graduate School, is a compilation of five contextual topics regarding informal architecture. This book might lack scholarship of academic expertise, as confessed by Prof. Ivan Kucina, but it offers interesting reading for those with a passion for new and unconventional architectural ideas.

In the first chapter, When cities are out of control, it is stated that one third of the world’s urban population, the poorest, has adopted informality, due to poverty and housing scarcity. Informal housing is the dweller’s largest asset. But it is under permanent threat of demolition, as authorities opine that it is risky if slums are retained over the course of time. Capitalist hegemony and globalisation might have freed people and business, but they have also failed to improve the unemployment situation of the urban poor. Due to political manipulation and ineffective public administration, this group of people is marginalised, not by choice, but rather they are the victims of a harsh reality where workers work and dwell in worse environments as products of dysfunctional political systems in which corrupt politicians utilise or even patronise them. Being socially excluded, such settlements are responsive to the constant needs of inhabitants. This group of people shows innovation, recycling and sustainability in picked materials, although their access to resources is limited. Their materials produce less collective emissions of carbon. Acute unemployment in cities proved that informality is flexible – it asks for nothing, but allows almost anything. The first example is the Kawloon walled district of Hong Kong, where the inhabitants made power stations for electricity and allowed private suppliers to pump water from wells. On the other hand, rigid regulations of formal architecture have been challenged, as they segregate and limit actions. These laws were written years ago, and contemporary cities have changed a great deal since then. Industrialisation ignited rapid urbanisation, and formality cannot function, as it is a bottleneck of bureaucracy. Management of formal zoning for exclusive areas does not provide options for social mixing. But the inclusive informal development consists of blurred boundaries between settlements. It brought ‘incremental building’ ideas where any house can be built over a period of time in different stages, in order to achieve formal protocol in the future. Formality and informality could thus be mixed as part of the socio-economic fabric of cities where actors will interact as part of a whole.

The second chapter, Self-organized building affairs, starts with an example from Mumbai, India, where 60% of the total informal settlements are illegal slums. These are the most extreme conditions of informality, developed on waste-dumping land, with unhygienic and bad governance. Such settlements host various economic backgrounds and developed poverty as a culture of the helpless outsiders. Night restaurants for day labourers are effective economic and recreational spaces for such areas. For example, Dharavi is an economically successful slum, because it has thousands of

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home-based, low-tech, labour-intensive and recycling businesses such as textile, pottery, leather, and so on. A great example of urban redevelopment that brings out the total emotions of society is that dwellers are eager to live closer to one another. Informality is not a product, but rather a process for both individual and collective needs. There is an example of chew jetty in Pinang, Malaysia, where a Chinatown of early Chinese fishermen immigrants provided waterfront housing developments. A British colonial character formed its ‘degree of formality’, but the religious purpose of Buddhist shrines overtook traffic rules to transform this town as heritage-based economy. Police bribery is the informal economy of night markets, while a profit-making and formal tourist economy already exist. Informal economy evolved from the ‘emergence’ of human nature. An exact reflection of Robert Neuvirth’s system D means the self-reliance of such parallel economy. It will be the second largest economy of the world within the next 50 years. Another example is Gropius Torten estate in Dessau, Germany, where the famous Bauhaus style is being misused for the informal attitude of inhabitants. Surely, informality is a reaction to the failure of formality, which is not only a problem for the third world, but also evident in developed countries. Thus, architects need to be ready for the next era. Informality develops practical solutions with flexibility, pragmatism, negotiation, continuous adaptation, and the struggle for survival. Naturally chosen leaders of the community and their agents frequently cope with collective and territorial interests in a self-organised and interdependent community. All together, they comprise a network of semi-autonomous agents. This again follows laws, codes, regulations and incentives of formality, to some extent. In this instance, design is part of that self-organised system that triggers unpredictable complex dynamics to make our cities vibrant.

The third chapter, Bonds between formal and informal, states that formal architecture is all about façade to win market competition, while informal architecture pushed us outside the conventional horizon. It filled up the homogeneous void left by formal architecture such as static geometrical objects or parasites. Basic construction techniques, innovative building typology, available materials, survival strategy in the informal economy, and the primal growth of instruments all challenge the authorised services of the city government. It raised questions to shift our intention from a top-down mechanism to a bottom-up action, with conflict and negotiation. Such processes will compel architects to create a base for participatory and simultaneous transformation. These settlements are radically democratic and politically responsive; mass dominates over code; relationship prevails over composition, and adaptation is more important than statics. In every case, informality appears first in organic development, followed by formality with boundary and territorial sense. Formality and informality cannot substitute each other, but they can overlap. Formality is less

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adaptive, while informality is corrupted. Foucault saw architecture as a diagram (Cartography) that is again limited to the mechanism of power and boundary lines. It is a blind and mute machine, but it makes others see and speak. The Chilean architect Alejandro Aravena took the concept. He had no fear of having no control over final aesthetics, but his concern is the position of void and observing the works around it for the time being. Moreover, it reduced the cost of his project and the personalisation of each unit could cope with the changing demands. Informality is thus effective for heterogeneous urban populations controlled by landlords in a sustainable urban ecology. Increasing or decreasing formality does not affect society. The concept of urban commons has great potential to ensure collective ownership of resources through informal housing models, especially in third-world countries. Current urban development policies segregate citizens and patronise the monopoly of commodification, a wrong practice indeed.

The fourth chapter, Quest for the fair city agenda, discusses the failure of Chandigarh. It lacks unintentional interaction of its inhabitants, although its gridiron pattern is still beneficial. The walkways, corridors and verandas of an old city such as Varanasi offer visual treats and intimacy. The whole streetscape is, in fact, a germination of public spaces full of collective memory, socialisation and educative interventions for the next generation. Informality can bring equilibrium within a formal context and its façade can add rich fabric to the urban narrative. Another example from Caracas shows how, by the dint of community participation, a football stadium was transformed into a four-storey gymnasium. This introduced a network of pedestrian walkways converted into stairs equipped with utilities, and the landings were designed for social interaction. A participatory policy of NGOs and volunteering agencies to ensure basic services, improvement of living environment, and land-tenure security is gaining popularity in the third world. For the past 30 years, community participation was part of urban management, but this effort did not influence the decision-making process to a great extent.

Previously, it was a tool, but if it were used as a process, it might be able to enhance their contribution, because a tool is subjective, whereas a process is constructive. The word ‘community’ is also wrong, as it identifies any group as a homogeneous entity bound by natural, social and administrative barriers and generalises all categories such as women, the poor, and so on under one canopy. Informal architecture will primarily be a habitat trend, the focal voice of human beings in the next couple of decades. Equality and sustainability will be the challenge. There will be several overlapping forces such as rapid urbanisation, wrong policies, financial rigidity, and unrealistic regulations. Secure tenure-based practice could be replaced by comprehensive mixed use moulded by legal pluralism. An interesting example is that of Ogun region in Nigeria, where inhabitants provided documents of their dwellings and

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the authority redesigned these later with legal infrastructures and services. This might take land from government, but, in return, it generates revenue. Provision of accessibility and public space can be standardised in informal settlements in four steps: goal-setting, action plan, community participation for capacity-building, and accountability process. Soft and micro-credit loans might have a long-term impact on the community. Outdated plans should go through different transformation stages, in order to check further informal growth. Issues such as setbacks, road width, and so on could be negotiated.

The chapter What can architects do? first analyses, during the massive migration era of the 1960s, how the idea of the global south changed conventional architecture. Its small-scale intervention and on-site building ability proved to be more efficient. Teddy Cruz admired it as a better recycling process in a conflicting environment such as the US-Mexico border, while Oscar Lewis described it as a cancer, manifested in tension, but resulting in overall urban form. In this instance, the fragmentation of cities reflects the fragmentation of budget and agencies. For example, in Caracas, the urban think tank of Universidad Simón Bolívar under their Mirco Utopias concept: not to solve problems, but to pose new problems to influence diversified forces. It is a laboratory of low-cost cases, compost toilets, new routes and public spaces into existing fabric to transform streets into spaces of dialogue, even accommodate commerce and livestock. The seating hubs of informal public spaces could be implemented in formal development. Such adaptive reuse is, in fact, an expansion of informality. Architects such as Lucien Kroll found that mono-functional units of informality remain unused, whereas Ottokar Uhl is concerned about the lifespan of structures. Space optimisation is another good quality of informality. Architect Gary Chang transformed a tiny 344 square feet apartment with integrated furniture that can move over 24 different layouts. According to Charles Stokes, informal patterns developed as social foundations rather than physical bases. Architects can thus design simple, low-cost and handicraft based economically on sound prototypes. A final example is the Karail slum in Dhaka, Bangladesh, where architect Hasibul Kabir created a public gathering space, a playground for children, and a gardening area. He named it Ashar Mancha or ‘platform of hope’. He successfully educated the inhabitants about pollution, sanitation, ventilation and lighting that changed the mindset of other slums and had a great impact on the total cityscape.

For all the above topics, architecture schools worldwide can now include informal architecture in their academic courses rather than overlooking it.

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Referees and consultants • Referente en konsultanteDr Anita Adamu (Quantity Surveying Department of Quantity Surveying, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria)

Prof. Kheir Al-Kodmany (Department of Urban Planning and Policy, University of Illinois, Chicago, USA)

Dr Stephen Allen (School of the Built Environment, University of Salford, Salford, UK)

Dr Christopher Amoah (Department of Quantity Surveying and Construction Management,

University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa)

Emer. Prof. Paul Armstrong (School of Architecture, University of Illinois, Illinois, USA)

Dr Kofi Agyekum (Department of Building Technology, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana)

Mr Mike Border (Property valuer, Bloemfontein, South Africa)

Prof. Fidelis Emuze (Department of Built Environment, Central University of Technology, Free State, South Africa)

Me Kathy Evans (Department of Construction Economics and Management, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa)

Mr Emmanuel Eze (Department of Quantity Surveying, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria)

Dr Jeevarathnam Govender (Department of Marketing and Retail, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa)

Prof. Daniel Irurah (Department of Architecture and Planning, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa)

Dr Richard Jimoh (Department of Building, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria)

Prof. Narimah Binti Kasim (Department of Construction Management, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Malaysia)

Prof. Sabine Marschall (School of Social Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa)

Mrs Wanda Odendaal (Department of the Built Environment, Central University of Technology, Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa)

Dr Ibrahim Saidu (Department of Quantity Surveying, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria)

Dr Hennie Stoffberg (Department of Environmental Sciences, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa)

Dr Rex Ugulu (Department of Quantity Surveying, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria)

Prof. Benita Zulch (Construction Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Dr Johan van Zyl (Senior Researcher: Enterprise Studies, Central University of Technology, Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa)

Acta Structilia 2020:27 (1) ISSN 1023-0564 e-ISSN 2415-0487

Acta Structilia is endorsed by the South African Council for the Quantity Surveying Profession (SACQSP) for promoting research and Continuing Professional Development (CPD).

Contents • InhoudResearch articles • NavorsingsartikelsUtilisation of forecasting technology for Isah Yahaya 1 improving construction logistics in Nigeria Winston Shakantu Saidu Ibrahim

The impact of the Integrated Residential Nontokozo Mnisi 29 Development Programme on surrounding Aly Karam property values: Case Study of Fleurhof, Johannesburg

Risk assessment for hazard exposure and Oluwasinaayomi Faith Kasim 59 its consequences on housing construction Adekunle Moruf Alabi sites in Lagos, Nigeria Sunday Wusu

Review articles • OorsigartikelsIsivivane, Freedom Park: A critical analysis Graham Young 85 of the relationship between commemoration, Piet Vosloo meaning and landscape design in post-apartheid South Africa

An assessment of the causes of schedule Fhumulani Tshidavhu 119 and cost overruns in South African Nthatisi Khatleli megaprojects: A case of the critical energy sector projects of Medupi and Kusile

Early sustainable architecture in hanging Christo Vosloo 144 skyscrapers – A comparison of two financial office buildings

Book review • Boek resensie

Architectures of informality Sayed Ahmed 178

Information for authors · Inligting aan outeurs 183