5th Brazil Infrastructure Investments Forum Cesar … 93 - NY - aeroportos...Cesar Cunha Campos...

Cesar Cunha Campos

Director, FGV Projetos

[email protected]

New York, November 2014

5th Brazil Infrastructure Investments Forum

Airport Infrastructure in Brazil

2

Ports - Railways - Airports -

Public-Private Partnerships

(PPP/P3): what to

expect in the near future

1. ABOUT FGV AND FGV PROJETOS

2. BRAZIL OVERVIEW

3. BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN THE BRAZILIAN AIRPORT INDUSTRY

AGENDA

3

ABOUT FGV AND

FGV PROJETOS 4

Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) founded in 1944, is

the leading Think Tank in Latin America and Top 25

in the world

Its mission is to boost the socioeconomic

development of Brazil and boost its role in the

international scene

ABOUT FGV AND FGV PROJETOS

FGV’s technical advisory unit to public, private and

third-sector institutions in Brazil and abroad

Develops projects in different areas: economics,

administration, and public policy

30 years experience

Over 1300 projects developed

5

Academic

Units

Business

Schools

RJ – EBAPE

SP - EAESP

Economics

Schools

RJ – EPGE

SP – EESP

Law

Schools

RJ – Direito Rio

SP – Direito GV

Social Sciences

School

RJ - CPDOC

FGV

Applied

Mathematics School

RJ - EMAp

Applied

Knowledge Units

FGV

Projetos

Brazilian Institute

of Economy (IBRE) Publishing

House Continuing Education

Programs (IDE)

Applied Research

Centers

Communication

& Journalism

School

(to be founded)

BRAZIL OVERVIEW

6

BRAZIL OVERVIEW Geography and Population

7

BRAZIL OVERVIEW

Economy

8

BRAZIL OVERVIEW

Macroeconomic

9

BRAZIL OVERVIEW

Macroeconomic

34%

18%

17%

10

BRAZIL OVERVIEW

Social

11

CHALLENGES AHEAD

New growth model

Consumption- led growth

Investment- led growth

BRAZIL’S KEY SUCCESS FACTORS:

• Consistent macroeconomic policies

• Recovering investors’ confidence

• Reduction of real interest rates and “cost of doing business”

• Increase private investments (mainly in infrastructure)

• Productivity increase

• Investments represent only 18% of GDP

Job generation

Steady income increases

Increased social equality

Social programs

12

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

INFRASTRUCTURE:

• Brazilian Government estimated infrastructure investments of over US$ 295.2 billion for the coming

years

• Highways (7.500 km), railways (10.000 km), airports and ports

QUALITY OF EDUCATION:

• In 2011 Brazil’s public expenditure on education was 6.1% of GDP – above the OECD average of 5.6%

• Challenge: increase the quality of education In the Program of International Student Assessment

(PISA), Brazil still performs below the OECD average

IMPROVEMENT OF PROCESSES:

• Improving the hiring process for public sector

• Bureaucracy reduction

13

MAKING THE CASE

FOR SMART

INFRASTRUCTURE

INVESTMENTS:

BUSINESS

OPPORTUNITIES IN

THE BRAZILIAN

AIRPORT INDUSTRY

14

AIRPORTS AS SMART INFRASTRUCTURE

“Tomorrow’s infrastructure

will blend traditional

physical-infrastructure

(transportation and transit

systems, buildings, pipes,

power grid, concrete and

steel) with cyber-

infrastructure (computers,

networks and sensors) in

ways that are just

emerging”

MOBILITY

REAL ESTATE

SECURITY

INFRASTRUCTURAL

GRID

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY

COMMERCE

LOGISTICS

http://www.ices.cmu.edu/sii/home.asp 15

AIR TRAFFIC TREND

Source: National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC)

The growth of the number of domestic and international passengers – departures, between 2009 - 2013 is 56%:

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

mil

lio

n

71

87

101

109 111

22%

17% 7%

1% 56%

2009 - 2013

16

MAJOR BRAZILIAN AIRPORTS

17

AIRPORTS CONCESSIONS TIMELINE

Up to 2009 2013 2012 2011

PORTO SEGURO (BA) SÃO GONÇALO

DO AMARANTE

(RN)

CAMPINAS (SP)

BRASILIA (DF)

GUARULHOS (SP)

CONFINS (MG)

GALEÃO (RJ) INTERNACIONAL

DE CABO FRIO (RJ)

1º Batch of Concessions 2º Batch of Concessions

2015

CURITIBA (PR)

RECIFE (PE)

CUIABÁ (MT)

PRIVATE INITIATIVE

AIRPORT – NASP (SP)

+

3º Batch of Concessions

Brazil

18

CONCESSIONS FINANCIAL RESULTS

Brazil

US$ 8 bi US$ 2 bi

US$ 780 mi US$ 467 mi

WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS MINIMUM SIGNATURE BONUS

US$ 10.5 bi

2013

2012

2011 SÃO GONÇALO

DO AMARANTE (RN)

GUARULHOS (SP)

VIRACOPOS (SP)

BRASILIA (DF)

GALEÃO (RJ)

CONFINS (MG)

% INCREASE

229%

374%

160%

673%

294%

66%

US$ 8.78 bi

US$ 73 mi

NAME

1º Auction

Feb

2º Auction

Nov

US$ 7 bi

US$ 1.6 bi

US$ 1.9 bi

US$ 22 mi US$ 73 mi

US$ 1.5 bi

US$ 852 mi

US$ 250 mi

19 Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank

GUARULHOS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

São Paulo - SP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2031

millio

n

Passenger flow

WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS

US$ 7 bi

% INCREASE

374%

OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS

12% 9%

12%

ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING

CONCESSION

US$ 2 bi

CONCESSION TERM

20 years

Source: INFRAERO, DASP

WINNER GROUP

INVEPAR

Airport Company South Africa

(ACSA)

STAKEHOLDERS

INVEPAR: 90%

ACSA: 10%

64%


VIRACOPOS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Campinas - SP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013 2041

millio

ns

WINNER GROUP

CONSORCIO AEROPORTOS

BRASIL


US$ 1.6 bi

% INCREASE

160%

OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS

Passenger flow

39% 17% 5%

STAKEHOLDERS

TRIUNFO : 45%

UTC : 45%

EGIS: 10%


CONCESSION

US$ 3.7 bi

CONCESSION TERM

30 years


761%


JUSCELINO KUBITSCHEK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Brasília - DF

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2036

millio

ns

WINNER GROUP

CONSORCIO

INFRAMERICA


US$ 1.9 bi

% INCREASE

673%

OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS

Passenger flow

7% 3% 5%

STAKEHOLDERS

INFRAVIX :50%

CORPORACION AMERICANA : 50%


CONCESSION

US$ 1.2 bi

CONCESSION TERM

25 years

Source: INFRAERO, Brasilia Aeroporto

147%


ANTÔNIO CARLOS JOBIM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Rio de Janeiro - RJ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2038

millio

ns

WINNER GROUP

AEROPORTOS

DO FUTURO


US$ 8 bi

% INCREASE

294 %

OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS

STAKEHOLDERS

ODEBRECHT: 60%

CHANGI (Cingapura): 40%


CONCESSION

US$ 2.4 bi

CONCESSION TERM

25 years

Passenger flow

21%

17% -2%


253%


TANCREDO NEVES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Belo Horizonte - MG

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2043

millio

ns

Passenger flow

WINNER GROUP

AEROBRASIL


US$ 780 mi

% INCREASE

66 %

OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS

STAKEHOLDERS

CCR: 75%

MUNICH/ZURICH: 25%


CONCESSION

US$ 1.5 bi

CONCESSION TERM

30 years

31% 9% -4%


333%


AIRPORT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK

BUSINESS INVESTMENT

OPPORTUNITIES

2015

NEW CONCESSIONS

FORECAST

EXECUTIVE

AVIATION PRIVATE INITIATIVE

AIRPORTS

25

NEW CONCESSIONS FORECAST

CURITIBA (PR)

INITIAL VALUE FORECAST

US$ 557 mi

N° PASSENGERS/2013

6.7 mi

RECIFE

GUARARAPES (PE)


US$ 557 mi

N° PASSENGERS/2013:

6.8 mi

CUIABÁ

MARECHAL RONDON (MT)


US$ 161 mi

N° PASSENGERS/2013

3 mi

Source: Brazilian Airport Infrastructure Company (INFRAERO) | The exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) –

Brazilian Central Bank 26

PRIVATE INITIATIVE AIRPORTS

The Nasp, São Paulo’s new airport, will be the first public airport for commercial flights built by private enterprise

NASP

CONGONHAS

GUARULHOS

CAMPO DE MARTE

CONSORTIUM

ANDRADE GUTIERREZ (50%)

CAMARGO CORRÊA (50%)

OWNERSHIP

LOCALIZATION

Municipality of CAIEIRAS (SP)

ECONOMICS

Investment: US$ 2.3 bi

Turnover: US$ 300 mi/year

30 km

http://oglobo.globo.com

PASSENGERS/YEAR

45 mi

Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank

Nasp

27

EXECUTIVE AVIATION

CAÇAPAVA – AEROVALE

Article 627 of the MP, releases the construction of private airports for commercial flights (small planes for private use)

Source: http://economia.estadao.com.br; http://www.valor.com.br | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank

CATARINA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT

LOCALIZATION: Caçapava (SP)

OWNER: Grupo Penido

AREA: 2,25 mn mq

(117 Aeronautical Lots 188 Commercial /

Industrial Lots)

INVESTMENT: US$ 107 mi

LOCALIZATION: São Roque (SP)

OWNER: JHSF

AREA:

INVESTMENT: US$ 169 mi in the project’s 1st

phase

Revenue of US$ 73 mi in the 3rd year

120 km from SP

55 km from SP

7 mn mq

28

Thank you!

[email protected]

5th Brazil Infrastructure Investments Forum Cesar … 93 - NY - aeroportos...Cesar Cunha Campos...

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