27th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Hilton Houston Post...

"Developing & Delivering Affordable Energy in the 21st Century"

27th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference

Hilton Houston Post Oak Hotel, Houston, Texas - September 16-19, 2007

Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos

Associate Professor IEE - USP

Email: [email protected]: (55-11) 3091 - 2641

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.iaee.org/

http://www.usaee.org/

DISCUSSING BRAZIL’S NUCLEAR FUTURE

Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos , IEE - , 55-11-4153-1693,

[email protected]

Paul Louis Poulallion, SINDE, 55-21-2240-5140,

[email protected]

Murilo Tadeu Werneck Fagá, IEE - , 55-11-3091-2634,

[email protected]

SUMMARY

Initial thoughts

International Outlook

The Brazilian reality

Proposing a New Nuclear Program

Conclusions

20 de setembro de 2007 3

Initial Thoughts

The revival of nuclear energy

Arguments being used

Initial Thoughts


From the BAD to the GOOD?

Since the Three Mile Island accident in 1979.Major safety concerns and financial troubles in the main

Western countries.The suffering of Nuclear Energy.

TODAY - The picture seems more favorably to nuclear. Political and economic situation improved.Increasing social acceptance.

Revival of nuclear in the major Western countries?

Initial Thoughts


Arguments for the change?

Convergence between ENERGY SECURITY & ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY.

Growing concerns with climate changes. “Scaring mask” passed to the Fossil-fuel industries.

Worries with energy security. Increasing perception of risk in the electricity supply.Risks in global energy transactions.


Asia & othersWestern EuropeUSA



The uncertain return to Nuclear?

Asia & others – Nuclear energy never ruled out.1985 to 2005 – Nuclear keeps its 15% of MTK ShareTremendous growing plan – From 8GW (2004) to 150GW (2050)

Sweden / Germany – Abandoning the abandon. UK – Resuming the construction of NEW CAPACITY.FRANCE – The Global Nuclear Icon

USA – The public opinion changing the most. Nuclear now seen as “ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIEND”.THE ENERGY POLICY ACT 2005.



Close eyes in the USA experience …Still largest Nuclear Industry in the world.About 100 reactors – 1/3 of world installed nuclear capacity.2004`s total production – 814 TWh (20% of Mkt Share).

Existing reactors operating just fine – Low cost energy.

No new nuclear reactor built in the USA in the last 20 years.Still NO NEW CONSTRUCTION

AEO2007`s reference case:Nuclear Mkt share declines - 19% (2005) to 15% (2030).Plants uprates balance retirements.

Only from 9 to 11.5GW of new capacity expected.

The Brazilian Reality

The revival of the nuclear debateThe international influence

Energy securityEnvironmental security



Proposing a New Nuclear Program …

Expected new nuclear power capacity in Brazil – 2007 to 2030 (in MW)

Scenarios: 2007 – 2015 2016 – 2020 2021 – 2025 2026 – 2030 2016 - 2030

LOW 1360 (Angra III) 1000 1000 2000 4000

MEDIUM 1360 (Angra III) 1000 2000 3000 6000

HIGH 1360 (Angra III) 2000 3000 3000 8000

Source: NEP2006 – EPE

By 2030 – Adding from 4 to 8 GW of new nuclear capacity. Equivalent to EIA`s projections to the USA

Nuclear as a Historical project in Brazil



From Hydro to Thermal to Hydro …

Source: BEN2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Installed Capacity ‐Annual expansions of Hydro ‐Total Thermal and Nuclear vis‐à‐vis the Total Expansion of the System (1985 ‐2005)

"Total expansion of the system"

"Hydropower expansion"

"Total thermal power expansion"

"Nuclear power expansion"

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Power Effectively Generated ‐Annual expansions Hydro ‐Total Thermal and Nuclear

vis‐à‐vis the Total Expansion of the System (1985 ‐2005)

Total expansion of the system

Hydropower expansion

Total thermal power expansion

Nuclear power expansion

Source: BEN2006



From Hydro to Thermal to Hydro …

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Installed Capacity ‐Annual expansions of Hydro ‐Total Thermal and Nuclear vis‐à‐vis the Total Expansion of the System (1985 ‐2005)

"Total expansion of the system"

"Hydropower expansion"

"Total thermal power expansion"

"Nuclear power expansion"

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Power Effectively Generated ‐Annual expansions Hydro ‐Total Thermal and Nuclear

vis‐à‐vis the Total Expansion of the System (1985 ‐2005)

Total expansion of the system

Hydropower expansion

Total thermal power expansion

Nuclear power expansion

Source: BEN2006

Source: BEN2006



Hydropower decreasing Mkt Share in installed capacity.Recently, increasing in power effectively generated.

Hydro system`s utilization factor increased - 49% (2001) to 54 (2005). Thermal system`s utilization factor decreased – 50 (2001) to 34% (2005). The whole system`s utilization factor – First declined 48% (2002) – Then

increased up to 2005 – But still very low.

Thermal investments:Helped to increase the electricity supply security.Damaged the efficiency in the overall capital allocation.

Balancing the Energy Security argument of the New Nuclear Program and Angra III

More Nuclear leading to higher efficiency?



The Environmental Argument …

Source: ANEEL – 2002 - Atlas de Energia Elétrica do Brasil - Found at: htt://www.aneel.gov.br

Ministério do Meio Ambiente – www.mma.gov.br

MinimumLowMediumHigh

Maximum

HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE AMAZON REGION



The Environmental Argument …

MinimumLowMediumHigh

Maximum

HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE AMAZON REGION

Source: ANEEL – 2002 - Atlas de Energia Elétrica do Brasil - Found at: htt://www.aneel.gov.br

Ministério do Meio Ambiente – www.mma.gov.br



Nuclear in Brazil is less effective in reducing carbon emissions.

Nuclear X Large Amazon Hydro Projects is flaw….

Many other hydro options still environmental sounding.

Electricity demand restructuring strongly needed.

Environmental argument balanced against the convergence

with the dominant hydro system.

Major nuclear-related environmental issues yet not solved –

Final Disposal of nuclear wastes.

Balancing the Environmental Argument …


Technology driverThe full command of the Nuclear Fuel CycleNaval rather than Energy reactorsPartnering wiht neighboring countries



Based on Angra III`s official cost numbers …. Nuclear energy is still not competitive in Brazil.

Nuclear looses for HYDRO; BIOMASS; OIL (in the regulated and free markets).

Nuclear - Driven by politics rather than economics:

Low transparence and no independent scrutiny.

Lack of private developers – Low reliability.

Technical expertise lost.

The real competitiveness of nuclear in Brazil?

20 de setembro de 2007 20Source: URANIUM INFORMATION CENTRE Ltd.

The command of the various steps that together make up

the entire Nuclear Fuel Cycle.

Rather focusing on technology …Proposing a New Nuclear Program


Rather focusing on technology …

Source: BEN2006



Industrial-scale uranium enrichment - The critical step .Focus on Nuclear Self-sufficiency (feeding Angra I and II).Competitiveness is less critical.

Large uranium reserves – Exporting added value products rather than commodities.

Domestic use of nuclear energy:

Centered on Naval rather than Energy applications.

Integration effort with neighboring countries.

“Atoms for a LATIN PEACE”.

No need of ANGRA III ….Proposing a New Nuclear Program

CONCLUSIONS

InternationalDomestic


Nuclear always booming eastward.Apparent return westward.Based on environmental + energy security issues.

STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTIES.

Nuclear definitively not an energy option.

Focuses on technology and naval applications much less risky.

Increasing nuclear security.

Rise Regional Integration back to the political agenda.

International ….Conclusions

Domestic … Less uncertainties …

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