2016 July GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through July 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]

Today’s Presenters

§  Bob Atkins – CEO at Gray Associates ─  Bob led Gray’s entry into the education industry and the development of Gray’s proprietary

industry databases and service offerings. He has worked with all of Gray’s education clients, consulting with CEOs and CMOs on business strategy, pricing, location selection, and program strategy. He is an expert in business strategy, marketing, sales and high-tech distribution channels. He has helped AT&T, American Express, HP, IBM, and a number of higher education clients to develop growth strategies, enter new markets, and build their sales and channel organizations. He has also led efforts that have eliminated tens of millions of dollars in cost, particularly in sales and channel management. He is a published author, whose articles have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Sales and Marketing Management, and other publications around the world. He received an MBA, with honors, from Harvard Business School and a BA, magna cum laude, from Harvard College.

§  Amanda Opperman – Senior Institutional Effectiveness Specialist at Wonderlic ─  Amanda leads initiatives to help institutions with the achievement and measurement of outcomes,

including assessment implementation and effectiveness planning. She began her career in the field of higher education as a Rhetoric & Writing Studies professor at San Diego State University. Most recently, she served as the Assistant Dean at California University of Management and Sciences. She has also served as Vice Chancellor at Southern States University and Academic Director at Hancock International College.

─  Amanda is currently writing her dissertation on the correlation of cognition and attainment of learning outcomes as part of her doctoral studies in the San Diego State University/Claremont Graduate University joint-PhD in Education. She also holds a B.A. and an M.A. in English Literature.



Who Is Gray?

GrayData

Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Student Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings CEB TalentNeuron

Programs Price Projects Place §  Program portfolio

strategy §  Program Profiles §  Program development

§  City targeting §  Location selection §  Campus consolidation

§  Price elasticity §  Price positioning §  Price optimization

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Acquisition analysis §  Complex analytics

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition IPEDS+

Program Evaluation System

§  Custom Scoring

§  Scorecards

-  By Program

-  By Market

-  100+ Markets

-  1,000+ Programs

Enhanced Crosswalks



What Is GrayReports?

GrayReports tracks demand for higher education. §  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. §  Paid subscribers have online access to detailed data for their programs and markets.

Over 48 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 750,000 new inquiries in July 2016 Nearly 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries Over 700 metro areas with over 10,000 inquiries



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Job Postings

5.  Wonderlic - Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness

6.  Summary



-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

We will share data from 2014, 2015, and 2016

Introduce how to read chart: years and colors



-

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400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016


Inquiries have decreased an average of 10% year-over-year in 2016.

-10%



-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016


In July, inquiry volumes dropped 10% year-over-year.

-10% YoY



Branded Inquiries

Branded inquiries have increased almost every month this year. They jumped 11% in July.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

+11% YoY

Define Branded Inquiries: Inquiries for a particular school’s brand name



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 15% year-over-year. §  In July, external inquiries fell 17%.

-17% YoY

0

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200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

Define External Inquiries: Inquiries from a third-party site that generates inquiries for higher education.



Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile. §  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 0% and as much as 21%. §  They appear to be stabilizing at Q1 2014 levels. §  Behind the scenes, Branded conversion rates are falling. Conversion rates for External inquiries are flat.

80

85

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105

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115

120

125

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.

+11%

+21%

+0% +4%



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For April inquiries, total student conversions crashed 22% year-over-year. §  This is the worst decline so far this year. §  Conversions of May inquiries have a lot of ground to make up to reach last year’s levels.

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-22% YoY

Transition: Let’s turn to April May and June

Immature Months1



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $45.00 $44.48

$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

In July, the price of an external inquiry decreased 1% year-over-year. §  In the first six months of 2016, the average price for paid inquiries is up 2% year-over-year.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

-1%



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Year-to-date, inquiries for online programs have slipped 3% year-over-year.

0

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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016 -3%



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Reversing the trend, June inquiries for online programs jumped 16% year-over-year.

0

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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

16% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online programs declined 16% in April. §  Conversions are taking longer, rising from three months to four or five. §  For example, March inquiries continued to convert; they are now up 7%. §  April results may improve as conversions continue to drift in.

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1

-16% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In July, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 26% year-over-year. §  The first six months of 2016 have all fallen below year-ago and 2014 levels. §  Year-over-year, inquiries for on-campus programs are down 14% so far this year.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-26% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 18% YoY in March. §  May, June and July are poised to beat last year.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-18% YOY Immature Months1

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

Only one of The Big 5 cities grew year-over-year. §  Atlanta grew 3% in July. §  Los Angeles had the largest decline.

-34%

-17%

-41%

6%

-32%

3%

-9% -14%

-26% -31%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Atlanta, GA New York, NY Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA Los Angeles, CA

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



The Big 5 Programs: June Growth

Only one of The Big Five programs grew in June. §  Registered Nursing grew 5% year-over-year. §  Criminal Justice/Police Science remained flat. §  Medical Assistant dropped 11%. §  Business Administration dropped over 26% at the Bachelor’s and Associate’s levels.

5%

0%

-11%

-26%

-36% -40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Registered Nursing (ADN, BSN)

Criminal Justice Medical Assistant Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Business Admin: Associate's

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change



-88% -39%

-3% -24%

-82%

563%

384%

186%

108% 78%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

Counseling Psychology

Public Administration

Medical Insurance Coding

Health Info./Medical Records Technology

Computer Programming

The Fast 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

Three new programs showed up in the five fastest-growing programs1. §  Four of the five programs increased over 100% in July2. §  Computer Programing and Counseling Psychology are both repeats from last month.

1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012).

2.  May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.



In addition to inquiries, a program evaluation requires data on competition, jobs, wages, and degree fit.

Organizational Leadership: Philadelphia

The demand is strong for this program. But demand is not all you should consider.

It is primarily Bach and Grad program

Relatively little competition in Phil.

But, fewer job postings than graduates. This is unusually low (the average is 5 job postings per grad for a typical large program)



-26%

-19%

-17%

-8%

-6%

-5%

-2%

-1%

4%

16%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Associate's External Campus Bachelor's Certificate Doctorate Master's Unknown Degree Online Branded

Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2016/2015 (May to July)

Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing Three Months

Only Branded and Online Modality inquiries grew for the quarter. §  Higher degree levels continue to perform better, but they are now declining.



Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months

For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries. §  Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel. §  Five different branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter. §  Two external channels grew year-over-year for this period.

-60% -46% -39% -34% -27% -22% -19% -16%

4% 10%

22% 26%

77% 134%

396%

-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%

Branded: All Other Internal Branded: Display External: PPL Branded: Referral Branded: PPC - Inbound Call Branded: Offline Media Branded: Email Branded: Interactive External: Affiliate Branded: PPC Branded: Website Branded: Organic Branded: Inbound Phone External: Affiliate - PPC Branded: Social Media

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

(April through July YoY)



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary



NCES Cross Walks

NCES crosswalks assume a tight link between program of study and occupation.

§  NCES crosswalks a B.A. in English Language and Literature to just two occupations (SOCs).

English Language and Literature, General

CIP 23.0101

English Teachers SOC 25-1123

Secondary School Teachers SOC 25-2031

Source: National Center for Education Statistics: SOC 2010 mapped to CIP



Reality: Loose Alignment, especially for Liberal Arts

According to the U.S. Census, English majors are actually employed in over 400 SOCs, not two.

1 2

446

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Gray analysis of over 2.0 million records

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CIPs (Programs) NCES Matched SOCs Actual Employment: SOCs

Count of Programs and Occupations CIP 23.0101 English Language and Literature, General



What Do English Majors Do? Teach, go to law school, become CEOs….

$18,840 $22,480

$28,340 $29,700

$39,690 $42,380

$44,180 $44,290 $44,580 $45,520

$59,210 $60,450

$64,150 $65,290

$73,640

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

Retail salespersons Other teachers and instructors

Secretaries and administrative assistants First-line supervisors of retail sales workers

Editors Writers and authors

Elementary and middle school teachers Postsecondary teachers

Librarians Secondary school teachers

Miscellaneous managers Management analysts

Education administrators Chief executives and legislators

Lawyers, judges, and other judicial workers

25th-Percentile Annual Wage for Each Occupation

Top 15 Occupations and Wages Program: BA in English



Programs with the Fastest Job Postings Growth over the Trailing 12 Months

Pharmacy Technician has the fastest growing job market with a 20% increase in job postings. §  Healthcare occupations grew the fastest, with six of the top fifteen programs. §  Nursing programs hold two of the top 15 slots: RN and LVN

6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

8% 8%

9% 9%

15% 16% 16% 16%

20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Plumbing Applied Horticulture

Medical Biller Computer Networking and Telecom

Landscaping Computer and Information Systems Security

Computer Engineering, General Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse

Painting Registered Nursing

Pharmacy Criminal Justice

Special Education Physical Therapy

Pharmacy Technician

Change in Job Postings By Program July 2015-July 2016 vs. Prior Year

Year-Over-Year Change

Healthcare

Source: CEB TalentNeuron, Gray Analysis. National Job Postings by CIP Code. Includes only the top 100 programs based on job postings.



Nursing: Competition for Jobs

There are jobs for nurses…but hundreds of thousands of graduates compete for these jobs.

§  48,000 students completed LVN programs §  86,000 students completed ADN programs §  131,000 students completed BSN programs

47,679

86,307

131,281

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20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

LPN/LVN ADN BSN

2015 Nursing Completions

How can 131,281 BSN graduates differentiate themselves?



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary

36

Presentation © Wonderlic, Inc. 2016

Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness:

Using competency-based digital badges to meet the hiring expectations of Allied Health employers

What is a competency?

•  A competency is a specific kind of learning objective

•  A competency is the capability to apply a set of related knowledge, skills, and abilities required to successfully perform critical work functions

•  A competency can be measured through direct assessment: •  Direct assessment is based on an analysis of

student behaviors in which they demonstrate how well they have mastered learning outcomes

§  Examples of Nursing competencies: �  Perform first aid to immobilize fractures and

control bleeding �  Assist patients with range of motion exercises,

using crutches and crutch gaits �  Measure an infant's height, weight, and head

circumference, and plot on growth chart

What is a competency? cont.

§  Direct assessment items are: �  Interactive �  Competency-based �  Scenario-based �  Student-centered

§  The best direct assessments are: �  Employer-vetted �  Third-party

How can I measure a competency?

How can I measure a competency? cont.

1.6% of employers agreed that local colleges provided

them with credentials that clearly verified

graduates’ knowledge and

skills.”

8.2% of employers agreed that they find

academic transcripts, grades,

and GPAs to be highly reflective of

students’ on-the-job skills.”

How do employers verify competencies?

83% of employers stated that they prefer digital badges over

academic transcripts when making hiring

decisions.”

86% of employers stated that they

would encourage local educators to

provide students with competency-based

digital badges.”

How do employers verify competencies?

§  Badges are digital icons awarded by institutions and/or organizations that signify accomplishments such as completion of a project, mastery of a skill, or marks of experience

What is a digital badge?

Certified Nursing Assistant Seeking Employment

Highly trained nursing assistant with a track record of professional behavior and exhibited critical thinking skills. I have earned credentials for being a team player and I have received recognition for my abilities in workplace communication. Please take some time to review my certifications below. By clicking on each, you can view the digital badges I have earned to verify my competency.

Certified Nursing Assistant Extern Associate’s Degree, Nursing Assistant 2016

Certified Nursing Assistant Seeking Employment

Highly trained nursing assistant with a track record of professional behavior and exhibited critical thinking skills. I have earned credentials for being a team player and I have received recognition for my abilities in workplace communication. Please take some time to review my credentials below. By clicking on the

This Nursing Assistant badge was awarded for demonstrated competency in Basic Phlebotomy based on the criteria below:

This Nursing Assistant badge was awarded for demonstrated competency in Basic Phlebotomy based on the criteria below:



Agenda




4.  Job Postings


6.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

The downward trend in inquiries continued in July, but jobs are growing.

§  Inquiry volumes fell 10% but branded and online grew. §  Conversions of April inquiries were down 22% YoY. §  Average inquiry prices dropped below $45. §  Higher degree levels continued to outperform. §  Social Media continues to be a strong channel. §  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions. ─ Where to focus your marketing—by program and market ─ What careers to focus on ─ What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] @Gray_Associates

617.366.2836

Amanda Opperman Senior Institutional Effectiveness Specialist

Wonderlic [email protected]

@SpecialOppsEdu



Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast

Please join us next month!

September Webcast (August Results)

Thursday, September 22nd at 2:00 PM EDT

2016 July GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

Education

Transcript of 2016 July GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education