Identification, evaluation and appraisal of factors which influence

demand for urban rail services and investigating ways in which these

factors may be influenced to balance demand and capacity of urban rail

to improve efficiency and enable cost effective provision of services.

Urban Rail Demand Management Strategies

Project Code: R1.107

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• Latent Rail Demand

– A Perth Case Study

• Best Practice Review

– City Case Studies

• Peak of the Peak Management

– Modelling and Estimation

3 Component Projects

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Latent Demand Study

Main Questions:

• Where is the likely market for latent demand come from?

• How are features of the trips and trip makers?

• What is the profile of that market?

• What are the major factors impacting the latent demand?

• How to simulate the interactions between policy adjustments and demand change?

2 Stage Project

• Identification of the potential market population through geographical analysis of the relevant journey to work trip data in ABS Census database;

• Estimation of latent demand through behavioural analysis of mode choice modelling by employing local strategic transport model.

Methodology

• Case Study of the Fremantle – Midland urban rail corridor in Perth

Purpose

to explore a viable approach to developing a practical decision-support tool for assessing the short-term impacts of the policy and operational adjustments at rail corridor level on the modal changes in the demand for urban rail transit

Methodology of Adopted Approach is

Verified

More Accurate Latent Demand Estimation

Requires:

1. conduct larger scale and in-depth rail passenger surveys on

travel behaviour, such as mode choice, departure time

choice, etc;

2. explore and measure unrevealed impact factors on travel

mode choice, such as transfer convenience, overcrowding,

and personal social-economical characteristics;

3. develop demand estimation models specifically for rail

transit station, corridor, or network;

Latent Demand Study Main Lessons

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Best Practice Review

Project Outline:

• Initial identification, evaluation and appraisal of factors which influencedemand for urban rail services

• Subsequent investigation of ways in which these factors can be influenced tobalance demand and capacity of urban rail

Methodology

• Review of Current Literature and Research

• Case Studies of Demand Management Practices in Sydney, San Francisco, Munich and Washington DC.

• Synthesis and Performance Benchmarking of International Demand Management Performance

Purpose

to explore established, new and emerging strategic options for coping with peak period demand in

major rail networks – and potentially “smoothing” demand through the concerted application of effective

management, pricing, planning and other options

Many passenger rail systems have lacked

active management of passenger demand

levels for an extended period.

Other agencies are performing reasonably

well from a “demand balancing” point of view.

Rail demand management appears to be re-

emerging as an important discipline in which

passenger demand levels are actively

managed, in order to deliver “smoother”

patronage levels across the day and week.

Best Practice ReviewMain Lessons

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Potential areas of strategy and action include:

better tracking and management of

passenger flows;

efficient pricing structures including peak

surcharges;

encouragements to off-peak travel

including customer outreach;

“responsive and responsible” network

planning, service and infrastructure

measures on the supply-side.

Best Practice ReviewMain Lessons

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Peak of the Peak Management Study

Project Outline:

• Identification and appraisal of instruments for managing urban rail demand

• Validation of the efficacy of targeted instruments

• Recommendations for Further Investigation and for Policy

Methodology

• Review of Current Literature and Research– Best practices in a range of industries

• Industry Expert Consultation– Identification and validation of policy instruments

• “Proof of Concept” Pilot Demand Modeling and Estimation– Development of a “Rooftops” empirical model and application to the Sydney Cronulla – Illawarra

line.

Purpose

To identify and evaluate demand management options for effectively moderating or smoothing peak demand on Australian Urban Rail Networks

Reducing underlying need for service

Changing way in which needs are met

Pricing & Financial Mechanisms

Improve service delivery levels during

shoulder periods

Educating Customers

Other

Peak Smoothing Instruments

Impact social & institutional peak drivers (e.g. office hour flexibility

campaigns/ telecommuting and internet access, etc.)

Land use & transit oriented development to shift travel patterns

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Use other transport mode interfaces and feeder transit

(timetables), incl. role of active transport (walking and cycling)

Increase peak-of-peak fares

Reduce shoulder peak fares

Station-specific surcharges (where high congestion)

Employer incentives and disincentives

Station parking pricing and/ or availability

Fast/express vs. “all stops” services

Service frequency

Passenger flow enhancement mechanisms on rail platforms

Standing vs. sitting carriages

Use transparency in peak fares & crowding levels to shift demand

Rationing, Queuing

Lessons Learnt – Case Studies Reviewed

Sydney

SmartSaver

Melbourne

Early BirdLondon

There is potential for peak smoothing

Significant fare differentiation is required

Target the critical peak period

Service differentiation is key

Don’t make it difficult and inconvenient

Allow enough time for changes to take effect

Reducing underlying need for service

Changing way in which needs are met

Pricing & Financial Mechanisms

Improve service delivery levels during

shoulder periods

Educating Customers

Other

Proof of Concept Study focus

11DRAFT, CONFIDENTIAL

Increase peak-of-peak fares

Reduce shoulder peak fares

Fast/express vs. “all stops” services

Service frequency

Use transparency in peak fares & crowding levels to shift demand

Questions?

THANK YOU

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