2006-07 Regional Modeling Center Workplan

Fire/Carbon/Dust Workshop

May 24, 2006

Regional Modeling Center activities• RMC Team is UC Riverside, ENVIRON, and University of North

Carolina

• Same team 2001-present

• Activities:– Meteorological modeling & analysis

– Emissions modeling & analysis for all pollutants – special projects for ammonia, fire, and windblown dust emissions

– CMAQ and CAMx with PSAT gridded photochemical air quality/visibility modeling for Inter-RPO modeling domain and all Class I areas in contiguous U.S.

– BART CalPuff support (modeling protocol, MM5 inputs, & CalMet/CalPuff modeling

– Technology and data transfer activities for state/tribal/FLM/local agencies and research community

• Present team funded through early 2007 – modeling support needed in the future

• http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/

Planned Regional Modeling Runs – May to September 2006Regional Modeling Scenario Name

Purpose Target Completion Date

Clean02a Evaluate contribution of natural emissions to modeled visibility/air quality May 2006

Base02b Evaluate model performance, uses actual 2002 emissions May 2006

Plan02b Final 2000-04 baseline period modeling run May 2006

Plan02b source apportionment

Identify contributions of states’ source categories to 2000-04 haze at each Class I area, using actual 2002 emissions for all categories except fire, which uses 2000-04 “typical, average” emissions

July 2006

Base18b Final 2018 base case projection modeling run May 2006

Base18b source apportionment

Identify contributions of states’ source categories to 2018 haze at each Class I area, using emissions projected for growth, control, and rules on the books

July 2006

Sensitivity18a, 18b Road dust “zero-out” and 2018 off-shore marine emissions sensitivity runs July 2006

PMBART18 Zero-out run for PM emissions from BART sources using regional model July 2006

VOCBART18 Zero-out run for VOC emissions from BART sources using regional model July 2006

Sensitivity18b Test suites of emissions reductions under consideration by WRAP region states Early Fall 2006

Additional runs Fall 2006 and Winter 2006/07 to be determined

WRAP Region BART Analysis Summary

  Step A – BART Culpability Analysis (0.5 deciview threshold for 2002

actual maximum emissions rate*)

Step B – BART Engineering Analysis**

Step C – 2018 Visibility Benefit Analysis for estimated emissions reduction from

BART application

AK WRAP RMC Alaska DEC WRAP RMC

AZ WRAP RMC Arizona DEQ WRAP RMC

CA All by California ARB

CO All by Colorado DPH&E: http://apcd.state.co.us/documents/techdocs.html

ID Idaho DEQ issued RFP with OR and WA to do steps A & C with 12km MM5 met data - ID to do step B

MT All by Montana DEQ, using WRAP RMC-prepared 36km met data

NV WRAP RMC Nevada DEP WRAP RMC

NM WRAP RMC New Mexico ED WRAP RMC

ND All by North Dakota Department of Health

OR Part of ID RFP with WA to do steps A and C - see ID note above - OR to do step B

SD WRAP RMCSouth Dakota DENR - 2 eligible

sources, 1 is PM onlyWRAP RMC

UT WRAP RMC Utah DEQ WRAP RMC

WA Part of ID RFP with OR to do steps A and C - see ID note above - WA to handle B? - WA and Region X are working together

WY All by Wyoming DEQ, using a contractor at 12 km or 4 km MM5 met data - 18 eligible sources

Tribal All federal sources as far as is known, so these are up to their respective Regional Offices

*- data to be provided by permitting agency

** - may be based on separate contract support funded by Stationary Sources Joint Forum

CalPuff BART Modeling Activities

CalPuff Modeling Activities: – see May 5 draft protocol at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/bart.shtml, also Appendix B of 2006 Modeling Plan, below

Target Completion Date

Extraction of MM5 met data for specified regions May-June 2006

Preparation of CalMet data inputs to CalPuff model June 2006

Completed emissions parameter worksheets from states for BART-eligible sources June 2006

CalPuff modeling activities to give results for determining “subject-to-BART” status July-August 2006

Spreadsheet of results for each state’s interpretation of sources “subject-to-BART” August 2006

Results of engineering studies from states on emissions reductions on BART controls September-December 2006?

CalPuff modeling activities to give results of applying BART controls at each source Subsequent to engineering studies

Final report on RMC CalPuff modeling activities as part of final RMC project report Spring 2007

Source Apportionment Modeling• RMC White Paper on PM Source Apportionment http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm

/308/reports/PSAT_White_Paper_111405_final_draft1.pdf• Modeling Plan for using CAMx with PSAT

Applies to 2 regional modeling runs:– planning02b case – represents emissions during 2000-04 regional haze

baseline period – see specifications sheet– base18b case – represents emissions forecasts to 2018 accounting for growth

and control programs on the books through 2004, includes corrections from base18a run – see specifications sheet 

Tracers:– PSAT tracers for sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen (NOx) families– Families:

• Sulfur – 2 tracers [SO2i Primary SO2 emissions; and PS4i Particulate sulfate ion from primary emissions plus secondarily formed sulfate]

• Nitrogen – 7 tracers [RGNi Reactive gaseous nitrogen including primary NOx (NO + NO2) emissions plus nitrate radical (NO3), nitrous acid (HONO) and dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5); TPNi Gaseous peroxyl acetyl nitrate (PAN) plus peroxyl nitric acid (PNA); NTRi Organic nitrates (RNO3); HN3i Gaseous nitric acid (HNO3); PN3i

Particulate nitrate ion from primary emissions plus secondarily formed nitrate; NH3i Gaseous ammonia (NH3); and PN4i Particulate ammonium (NH4)

Source Apportionment Modeling, cont.Source Areas:– Each WRAP state– Pacific Off-shore Region– The group of CENRAP states– Remaining contiguous US East, including Gulf of Mexico– Mexico– Canada

6 Emissions Categories:– Point (including stationary offshore, all inland point sources + Pacific

point)• Point sources checked for assignment to correct state

– Anthropogenic Fires (WRAP agricultural fires and anthropogenic prescribed fires)

– Total mobile (on-road, off-road, including planes, trains, ships in/near port, off-shore shipping)

– Natural emissions (natural fire - WRAP region wild fires, non-federal rangeland, natural prescribed fires, and wildland fire use only, biogenics)

– Elevated fire sources in other RPOs (VISTAS, CENRAP, and Canada fires)

– Everything else (area, all dust, fugitive ammonia, non-elevated fire sources in other RPOs)