2001* Embraer ProjeçãO Da Demanda
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Transcript of 2001* Embraer ProjeçãO Da Demanda
Jun 2001
Embraer Market ForecastEmbraer Market Forecast
Jun 2001
ContentsContents
Q Regional Airline Market Review
Q The Regional Jet Phenomena
Q Major Issues Impacting Future Demand
Q Embraer Market Forecast
Jun 2001
Regional Airline MarketRegional Airline Market
Source: Airline Business
Passengers by RegionPassengers by Region
Jun 2001
Passengers Enplaned (millions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Forecast
5%Projected Average
Annual Growth
10%Average
Annual Growth
139139
8585
Regional Airline Market - USARegional Airline Market - USA
Source: RAA, Embraer
Jun 2001Source: RAA, FAA
U.S. Regional Airlines% of Domestic Traffic
US Regional Enplanements IncreasingUS Regional Enplanements Increasing
PassengerEnplanements
(Millions)
19701970 19851985 20002000 2010F2010F
00
200200
400400
600600
800800
1,0001,000
3 %3 %7 %7 %
12 %12 %14%14%
Regional
Major
Jun 2001
4040
00
19901990 19951995 20002000 2010F2010F
3030
2020
1010
5050
Average Seating Capacity
Source: FAA, RAA, Embraer
US Regional Aircraft Size IncreasingUS Regional Aircraft Size Increasing
Seats per Aircraft
Jun 2001
600600
00
19901990 19951995 20002000 2010F2010F
450450
300300
150150
750750
Average Trip Length
Source: FAA, RAA, Embraer
US Regional Aircraft Flying LongerUS Regional Aircraft Flying Longer
(Km)
Jun 2001Source: ERAA, Embraer
Regional Airline Market - EuropeRegional Airline Market - Europe
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Forecast
7%Projected Average
Annual Growth
11%Average
Annual Growth
142142
7272
Passengers Enplaned (millions)
Jun 2001
00
1010
2020
3030
4040
5050
6060
7070
8080
19901990 19951995 20002000 2010F2010F
Average Seating Capacity
Source: ERAA, Embraer
Seats per Aircraft
European Regional Aircraft Size IncreasingEuropean Regional Aircraft Size Increasing
Jun 2001Source: ERAA, Embraer
600600
00
19901990 19951995 20002000 2010F2010F
450450
300300
150150
750750
Average Trip Length
European Regional Aircraft Flying LongerEuropean Regional Aircraft Flying Longer
(Km)
Jun 2001
Jun 2001
Turboprop Replacement
9%
Turboprop Complement
12%
Regional Jet ApplicationsRegional Jet Applications
New Routes29%
Jet Replacement
25%
Q Nearly 80% of regional jet applications come from new opportunities
(capacity rightsizing, increased hub catchment area, new point to point
routes), missions beyond the traditional turboprop role
Jet Complement
25%
Source: BACK
Jun 2001
Regional Jet Stage Length - USARegional Jet Stage Length - USA
Source: OAG BACK
20002000
19981998
19961996
1,5001,000500
Sector Distance (km)
0
2:40 2:40 Flight TimeFlight Time
An
nu
al F
ligh
ts
60,000
0
120,000
180,000
Jun 2001
Houston-Milwaukee(1585 km, 02:55)
Mont Rose(1490 km, 02:20)
Ixtapa (1510 km, 02:20)
ERJ
Continental Express NetworkContinental Express Network
Turboprop
Houston
Cleveland
Newark
Source: OAG BACK
Jun 2001
Daily Departures 129 110 -22
Average 199 406 +104Sector Length (sm)
Daily ASMs (millions) 1.06 1.98 +87
Daily Departures 129 110 -22
Average 199 406 +104Sector Length (sm)
Daily ASMs (millions) 1.06 1.98 +87
1996 2001 % Diff.1996 2001 % Diff.
Source: OAG BACK
Regional Jet Productivity
Continental Express’ Newark Hub example
Regional Jet Productivity
Continental Express’ Newark Hub example
20012001
16% Turboprop
16% Turboprop
84% Jet
84% Jet
100% Turboprop100%
Turboprop
19961996
Jun 2001
The Trend to All-Jet FleetThe Trend to All-Jet Fleet
Hopkins AirportCleveland, OhioUSA
Hopkins AirportCleveland, OhioUSA
Jun 2001
Baton Rouge Bloomington
Cedar Rapids Champaign
Chattanooga Cincinnati
Cleveland Columbus
Dayton Des Moines
Dubuque Duluth
Evansville Fort Wayne
Grand Rapids Green Bay
Greensboro Greenville
Huntsville Indianapolis
Kalamazoo La Crosse
Madison Memphis
Milwaukee NW Arkansas
Omaha Peoria
Pittsburgh South Bend
Toledo Traverse City
Regional Jets are Replacing TurbopropsRegional Jets are Replacing Turboprops
Jun 2001
20002000
Regional Jet Stage Length - EuropeRegional Jet Stage Length - Europe
19981998
Source: OAG BACK
2:40 2:40 Flight TimeFlight Time
An
nu
al F
ligh
ts
30,000
0
60,000
90,000
Sector Distance (km)
1,5001,0005000
Jun 2001
ZurichBasel
Turboprop
Stockholm(1500 km, 02:40)
Sevilla(1570 km,
02:30)
ERJ
Crossair NetworkCrossair Network
Source: OAG BACK
Jun 2001
Nice(1390 km, 02:40)
Oslo(1070 km, 02:00) St. Petersburg
(1030 km, 01:55)
Bucharest(930 km, 01:50)
ERJ
LOT Polish Airlines NetworkLOT Polish Airlines Network
Turboprop
Warsaw
Source: OAG BACK
Jun 2001
RJ High Frequency starting in EuropeRJ High Frequency starting in Europe
Days Flight Depart Arrive Eqp Stop Duration
xSaSu BA 4032 7:30a BRS 8:45a EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSaSu BA 4034 9:15a BRS 10:30a EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSaSu BA 4036 1:05p BRS 2:20p EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSa BA 4038 4:00p BRS 5:15p EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSaSu BA 4040 5:20p BRS 6:35p EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSa BA 4042 7:45p BRS 9:00p EDI ERJ 0 01:15
Days Flight Depart Arrive Eqp Stop Duration
xSaSu BA 4032 7:30a BRS 8:45a EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSaSu BA 4034 9:15a BRS 10:30a EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSaSu BA 4036 1:05p BRS 2:20p EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSa BA 4038 4:00p BRS 5:15p EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSaSu BA 4040 5:20p BRS 6:35p EDI ERJ 0 01:15
xSa BA 4042 7:45p BRS 9:00p EDI ERJ 0 01:15
From Bristol, UK Airlines: BA
To Edinburgh, UK
Date/Time30/Jan/2001 – 06:00a
From Bristol, UK Airlines: BA
To Edinburgh, UK
Date/Time30/Jan/2001 – 06:00a
Jun 2001
RJs Complement with Larger JetsRJs Complement with Larger Jets
Days Flight Depart Arrive Eqp Stop Duration
xSaSu NI 100 7:30a LIS 8:15a OPO 100 0 00:45xSa NI 532 8:45a LIS 9:30a OPO 100 0 00:45xSaSu NI 547 11:20a LIS 12:05p OPO 100 0 00:45xSaSu NI 807 1:45p LIS 2:30p OPO ERJ 0 00:45xSa NI 600 2:30p LIS 3:15p OPO 100 0 00:45MoTuSu NI 816 3:05p LIS 3:50p OPO ERJ 0 00:45xSa NI 720 4:00p LIS 4:45p OPO ERJ 0 00:45xSa NI 533 5:10p LIS 5:55p OPO 100 0 00:45xSaSu NI 106 5:50p LIS 6:35p OPO ERJ 0 00:45MoTu NI 809 6:45p LIS 7:30p OPO 100 0 00:45xSaSu NI 122 7:30p LIS 8:15p OPO 100 0 00:45xSa NI 911 8:00p LIS 8:45p OPO ERJ 0 00:45xSa NI 721 11:45p LIS 0:30a OPO ERJ 0 00:45
From Lisbon, Portugal Airline: Portugalia (NI)To Porto, Portugal
Date: 04/Jun/2001
Jun 2001
Responding to Market NeedsResponding to Market Needs
Jun 2001
Responding to Market NeedsResponding to Market Needs
Jun 2001
Responding to Market NeedsResponding to Market Needs
Jun 2001
Anticipating Market NeedsAnticipating Market Needs
ERJ 170 70 SeatsFirst Flight 2001 (Q4) First Delivery 2002 (Q4)2,100 nm Range
ERJ 170 70 SeatsFirst Flight 2001 (Q4) First Delivery 2002 (Q4)2,100 nm Range
ERJ 190-100 98 SeatsFirst Flight 2004 (Q3) First Delivery 2005 (Q2)2,300 nm Range
ERJ 190-100 98 SeatsFirst Flight 2004 (Q3) First Delivery 2005 (Q2)2,300 nm Range
ERJ 190-200 108 SeatsFirst Flight 2003 (Q3)First Delivery 2004 (Q2)1,800 nm Range
ERJ 190-200 108 SeatsFirst Flight 2003 (Q3)First Delivery 2004 (Q2)1,800 nm Range
Jun 2001
Anticipating Market NeedsAnticipating Market Needs
Jun 2001
Market IssuesImpacting Future Demand
Market IssuesImpacting Future Demand
Jun 2001
Economic ScenarioEconomic Scenario
Countries representing 75% of World Capacity
(aircraft up to 100 seats)
USA, Canada, Mexico, Brazil
58%
Others25%
Germany, UK, France, Italy
12%
Japan, India, Australia,
China5%
Source:Merrill Lynch, Consensus Economics, OAG BACK
Country 2001 2002 2005 2006-2010USA 1.9 3.7 3.3 3.2
Canada 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.0France 2.1 2.3 3.0 2.9Italy 1.7 1.8 2.7 2.6
Germany 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.2UK 2.6 3.0 2.4 2.4
Japan 0.0 1.6 2.4 2.3China 7.5 7.0 7.8 7.9
Australia 2.2 4.1 3.8 3.7India 7.0 7.5 7.2 7.6Brazil 3.4 3.0 4.6 4.6
Mexico 2.4 5.8 5.0 5.0WORLD 2.0 3.1 3.4 3.3
Real GDP Growth (%)
QThe worldwide economic scenario is favorable to continuous growth of air transport traffic demand in the next 10 years
Jun 2001
Scope Clauses - USAScope Clauses - USA
Q unlimited quantity for jets up to 59 seats
Q unlimited quantity for jets up to 44 seats, restriction of 67 jets from 50 to 70 seats
Q unlimited quantity for jets up to 70 seats
Q nearly 400 units of jets up to 50 seats
Q unlimited quantity for jets up to 44 seats, up to 30 units of jets from 45 to 50 seats
Q Reduced short term prospects for 70-seat jet in the USA
Q In the medium to long term, airlines will work out labor agreements to meet their market needs
Jun 2001
Scope Clauses - EuropeScope Clauses - Europe
Q Not as restrictive as in the USA.
Q Usually around 100+ seats.
Q Will allow for larger growth in the 60-120 seat segment.
Jun 2001
Environment (Noise and Emissions)Environment (Noise and Emissions)
Q Regulations are becoming more stringent, imposing restrictions and taxes on higher noise and emissions airplanes.
Q Environmental groups are pressing national governments to establish “green taxes” that could penalize airlines because of perceived aircraft pollution.
Q Committee on Aviation and Environmental Protection (CAEP): studying policy options to define more stringent noise standardsand to limit or reduce greenhouse gases emissions from civil aviation.
Jun 2001
Congestion - USACongestion - USA
QATC systems and airport infrastructure have not kept pace with air transport growth. Investments are required to be consistent withprojected air transport growth.
% Reported Flight Operations arriving Delayed
0
51015
2025
3035
Continental American Delta
1998 1999 2000
Source: US DOT
Jun 2001
Congestion - EuropeCongestion - Europe
% of Departures delayed more than 15 min
0
5
10
1520
25
30
35
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Delays by Cause
76%
4%4%
6%10%
ATC (route)
Weather
Military
ATC (capacity)
Others
Q Despite the collaborative approach under development with the air traffic service providers, air traffic flow management restrictions are the current main cause of delays.
Q “Single Sky” concept (fifteen countries, one single sky - Eurocontrol) is the solution forcurrent poor performance of the European fragmented ATC System, but the solution is more political than technical.
Source: AEA
Jun 2001
Market ForecastMarket Forecast
Jun 2001
Market Forecast 2001-2010Market Forecast 2001-2010
30-60 Seats2,085 Jets30-60 Seats2,085 Jets
Jun 2001
61-90 Seats1,200 Jets61-90 Seats1,200 Jets
Market Forecast 2001-2010Market Forecast 2001-2010
Jun 2001
91-120 Seats1,650 Jets91-120 Seats1,650 Jets
Market Forecast 2001-2010Market Forecast 2001-2010
Jun 2001
Market Forecast 2001-2010Market Forecast 2001-2010
30-60 Jet40%
61-90 Jet22%
91-120 Jet31%
30-60 TP5%
61-90 TP2%
World (30-120 seat segment): 4935 jets (US$115 Billion)World (30-120 seat segment): 4935 jets (US$115 Billion)
World Deliveries by SegmentWorld Deliveries by Segment
Segment Type (Units)
30 - 60 Jet 2085
Turboprop 290
61 - 90 Jet 1200
Turboprop 110
91 - 120 Jet 1650
Total 5335Jet 4935TP 400
Jun 2001
Market Forecast 2001-2010Market Forecast 2001-2010
30-120 Seats4,935 Jets30-120 Seats4,935 Jets
Jun 2001
from turboprops . . . to commercial jetsfrom turboprops . . . to commercial jets
Embraer Commercial Aircraft ProductsEmbraer Commercial Aircraft Products
EMB 110
EMB 120
ERJ 135
ERJ 140
ERJ 145
ERJ 170
ERJ 190-100
ERJ 190-200
Jun 2001
Worldwide Program Order BookWorldwide Program Order Book
Total ERJ 956 418 538 606Total ERJ 956 418 538 606
May 2001May 2001
Firm Deliveries Firm Options
Orders Backlog
Firm Deliveries Firm Options
Orders Backlog
ERJ 135/140/145 Family 836 418 418 401ERJ 135/140/145 Family 836 418 418 401
ERJ 170/190 Family 120 0 120 205ERJ 170/190 Family 120 0 120 205
Jun 2001
Thank you!Thank you!