20 April 2012 -...

Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.

Power Snapshots Strong growth in generation continues as demand revives

9 September 2014PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.

Our monthly chart book tracks key variables across the power sector including power generation, deficits, capacity addition, coal production/off take and short term market prices. Key highlights for the month are:

» All India power generation up 13% YoY in August ‘14 but PLF was flat. All India generation grew 13% YoY to 89BU’s; generation growth was mainly driven by coal based generation (+22.6% YoY). Hydro generation growth was down 11% due to seasonal variation and nuclear generation also was down 2% YoY. All India PLF’s at 55% (flat YoY); due to strong capacity addition.

» NTPC’s generation lags, PAF also take a hit: NTPC’s coal based generation was up 1% yoy to 16BU (down 8% MoM). Coal based PLF was down 2.5 ppt YoY to 70% (‐7ppt on MoM basis). Gas based generation improved 32% YoY. Gas based PLF was up 10pp to 41% on low base.

» RWPL generation improves; Rosa TPS takes shut down: The Rajwest PLF improved to 72% led by expansion of mine. Ratnagiri PLF was flat yoy to 74%. Mundra UMPP PLF declined to 61% and Rosa TPS declined due to maintenance shutdown.

» International coal prices dip; CIL production/off take improves. RB index prices dipped to ~ USD70/ton and so did low grade coal. The dip in RB index prices would be beneficial for imported coal dependent project like Adani’s Mundra TPS, JSW Energy Vijaynagar and Ratnagiri TPS. CIL production in Aug ’14 stood at 35mton up 11% yoy due to a low base. For FY15, production during April‐ August was up 5% YoY.

» Demand improves: Demand has picked up meaningfully and was up 9% YoY in July’14 and supply grew 9.3% leading to base deficit at 3.6%, flat YoY. Peak deficit was down 60bps YoY to 3.9%. Higher demand on account of weak monsoons lead to sharp 115% YoY increase in IEX price to Rs 4.4/kwh and in southern India price increased 63% to 5.6%.

» 768 MW capacities added in July ’14; 5GW added YTDFY15. In July ’14 capacity addition stood at 768 MW including thermal capacity of 700 MW and hydro capacity of 68MW as compared to target of 1100MW addition in July ’14. YTD FY15 capacity addition stood at 5GW, 134% of the targeted capacity.

Ankur Sharma (+ 9122 6667 759 [email protected]) Hrishikesh Bhagat (+ 9122 6667 9986 [email protected])

9 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS

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All India generation and PLF’s

All India Capacity (excl renew.) and PLF (MW)

In August ’14 all India PLF was flat YoY to 55.5% and was up 400 bps MoM driven by seasonal variation.

Fuel wise generation and growth (%)

Thermal generation stood at 68.9BU up 22% YoY led by robust coal based generation. Nuclear generation was down 2% to 3BU and hydro generation declined 11% YoY to 9BU’s.

Thermal PLF’s (sector wise) (%)

Central utilities PLF declined to 65%. State utilities PLF stood at 56% and IPP’s PLF although sub optimal improved 1500 bps yoy to 68%.

PLF by fuel type (%)

Overall coal PLF’s stood at 60% as compared to 65% in previous month and 56% YoY. Gas based plants continue to operate atsub‐optimal PLF of 22%.

Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research


NTPC’s generation and PLF’s

Coal based generation and PLF

NTPC’s coal based generation was up 1% to 16.8 BU. We note decline in share of NTPC’s generation as a % of overall generation to ~20% vs. 28‐30% historically.

Gas based generation and PLF

NTPC’s gas based generation was up 3% but PLF’s continue to languish at 40% on low availability of gas.

Coal based PLF (Plant wise)

NTPC’s Talcher TPS and Sipat TPS reported substantial improvement on YoY basis. PLF of Tanda TPS and Singrauli TPS declined significantly YoY

Gas based PLF (plant wise)

PLF for most gas based plants improved MoM.


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NTPC’s generation and PLF’s

NTPC’ coal based generation (MU)

Aug‐13 Sep‐13 Oct‐13 Nov‐13 Dec‐13 Jan‐14 Feb‐14 Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14Growth

YoYGrowth MoM

Badarpur 338 342 344 250 300 382 321 281 270 371 433 405 290 (14) (28) Dadri 921 1,113 1,155 1,098 1,100 1,239 1,042 1,082 847 1,168 1,166 1,096 1,014 10 (8) Farakka 955 1,079 1,134 1,091 1,282 1,302 1,095 1,244 1,026 1,148 1,034 1,130 1,086 14 (4) Kahalgaon 1,197 1,130 1,213 1,291 1,402 1,387 1,186 1,338 1,381 1,311 1,242 1,085 1,176 (2) 8 Korba 1,509 1,797 1,794 1,893 1,798 1,909 1,742 1,853 1,626 1,743 1,756 1,404 1,343 (11) (4) Mauda 7 18 5 100 136 193 195 148 380 329 215 216 281 4,037 30 Ramagundem 1,291 1,437 1,453 1,716 1,802 1,729 1,722 1,881 1,875 1,623 1,592 1,555 1,545 20 (1) Rihand 1,327 1,408 1,390 1,475 1,705 1,554 1,549 1,810 1,939 1,882 1,775 1,734 1,452 9 (16) Simhadri 1,038 1,133 1,043 1,025 1,295 1,382 1,310 1,445 1,458 1,452 1,380 1,385 1,036 (0) (25) Singrauli 1,360 1,316 1,483 1,446 1,457 1,429 1,300 1,089 1,329 1,308 1,267 1,292 1,149 (16) (11) Sipat 1,428 1,465 1,062 1,568 1,950 1,983 1,624 2,025 2,021 1,601 1,547 1,570 1,692 19 8 Talcher 264 323 323 322 344 348 311 349 334 647 318 267 307 17 15 Talcher 1,804 1,674 1,433 1,955 2,015 2,165 1,938 2,204 2,095 1,795 1,731 1,721 1,655 (8) (4) Tanda 317 239 263 317 331 319 296 302 272 303 251 284 245 (23) (14) Unchahar 664 716 591 702 710 704 644 644 618 644 696 753 708 7 (6) Vindhyachal 2,182 2,162 2,361 2,525 2,677 2,393 2,335 2,753 2,849 2,874 2,620 2,334 1,825 (16) (22) Coal gen 16,602 17,351 17,049 18,776 20,304 20,418 18,610 20,449 20,392 20,217 19,065 18,358 16,847 (14) (28)

NTPC’ coal based PLF’s (%)

PLF (%) Aug‐13 Sep‐13 Oct‐13 Nov‐13 Dec‐13 Jan‐14 Feb‐14 Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14YoY (%)

MoM (%)

Badarpur 64 67 66 49 57 73 68 64 53 71 85 77 55 (9) (22) Dadri 68 85 85 84 81 91 85 80 65 86 82 81 75 7 (6) Farakka 61 71 73 72 82 83 78 80 68 73 68 72 69 8 (3) Kahalgaon 69 67 70 77 81 80 75 77 82 75 74 62 68 (1) 5 Korba 78 96 93 101 93 99 100 96 87 90 94 73 69 (9) (3) Mauda 2 5 1 28 36 52 58 18 53 44 30 29 38 36 9 Ramagundem 67 77 75 92 93 89 99 97 100 84 85 80 80 13 (1) Rihand 71 78 75 82 92 84 92 89 90 84 82 78 65 (6) (13) Simhadri 70 79 70 71 87 93 97 97 101 98 96 93 70 (0) (23) Singrauli 91 91 100 100 98 96 97 73 92 88 88 87 77 (14) (10) Sipat 64 68 48 73 88 89 81 91 94 72 72 71 76 12 6 Talcher 75 95 92 95 98 100 98 100 101 102 96 78 90 14 12 Talcher 81 78 64 91 90 97 96 99 97 96 80 77 74 (7) (3) Tanda 97 75 80 100 101 97 100 92 86 92 79 87 75 (22) (12) Unchahar 85 95 76 93 91 90 91 82 82 82 92 96 91 6 (6) Vindhyachal 78 80 84 93 96 86 92 93 93 91 85 74 58 (20) (16) Coal PLF (rhs) 72 78 74 84 88 89 90 87 87 84 82 77 70 (2) (7)


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IPP’s generation and PLF’s

Tata Power ‐ Mundra UMPP

Mundra UMPP generation declined sequentially. PLF stood at 61% as one of the unit was under shut down.

Tata Power ‐ Maithon power

Maithon PLF stood at 73% down mom.

Adani Power ‐ Mundra

Adani Power’s Mundra unit operated at PLF of 64% as technical issue led to shutdown of two units.

Reliance Power ‐ Rosa

Rosa TPS PLF at 74% was down 500 bps yoy due to schedule maintenance of unit.


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JSW Energy ‐ Vijaynagar

JSW continued generation at robust PLF in Vijaynagar. For the260MW plant, PLF stood at 101% and in the 660MW plant PLFstood at 80%.

JSW Energy‐ Ratnagiri

Ratnagiri generation stood at 649MU as PLF declined to 74% from 79% MoM. Lower PLF could have been due to lower off take of merchant power.

JSW Energy‐ RWPL

Rajwest PLF improved to 72% led by clearance for mineexpansion.

Torrent ‐ Sugen

Subdued performance in Sugen continued due to loweravailability of gas. PLF stood at 32%.


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JPVL – Karcham Wangtoo

Karcham Wangtoo PLF stood at 109% led by seasonal factors on higher availability of water.

JPVL ‐ Bina

Bina TPS reported PLF at 53% as merchant capacity continue to suffer.

CESC

CESC generated 817MU in Aug, ‘14 while PLF’s was flat YoY to 85%

Jindal Power – Tamnar I

Tamnar TPS generated 1 BU and operated at PLF of 91%.


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International coal prices and Coal India’s production/off take Richard Bay, New Castle and HBA index (USD/ton)

Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research

RB index prices fell to ~ USD70/ton to almost 4 year lows in the month of Aug’14. New Castle and HBA index also followed a similar trend.

CIL production (mn ton) & growth

CIL production in Aug ’14 stood at 35mton up 11% yoy due tolower base. In FY15, production during April‐ August was up 5%yoy.

CIL off take (mn ton) & growth

CIL off take in Aug ’14 stood at 38mton up 8% yoy. In FY15, during April‐ August offtake grew 4% yoy led by weak monsoon.

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

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Energy demand and supply

Power demand(MU) and growth

Demand has picked up meaningfully and was up 9% YoY inJuly’14

Base deficit and Peak deficit

Base deficit was flat YoY and down 40bps mom to 3.6%. The peak deficit declined 120bps to 3.9%.

Region wise base deficit

The deficit in Northern region was up 100bps yoy to 6%. InSouthern region deficit declined 220bps yoy to 3.8%.

Power cut on industry

Power cut in industry in Northern region was mainly led by Uttarakhand (140 MW). In Southern region, all the states contributed leading to power cuts on industry of 6,417MW.



Short term volumes and prices

Short term volumes (MU) & as % of overall gen Bilateral volumes(MU) and prices

Short term volumes stood at 8.7BU’s, ~10% of total generation

Bilateral volumes improved 19% YoY to 4.4BU. Bilateral prices declined to Rs4.4/unit, down 10% YoY.

UI volumes(MU) and prices

UI volumes declined 13% YoY and UI prices were up 81% YoY to Rs 2.97/kwh.

IEX volumes(MU) and prices

The IEX prices were down to Rs 3.7/kwh in the month of June ’14. Volumes were up 21% YoY. The IEX price in August was up 115% YoY to Rs 4.4/kwh.

Source: CERC, PhillipCapital India Research

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Capacity addition

Capacity addition month wise

In July ’14 capacity addition stood at 769 comprising 700 MW thermal and 69 MW Hydro.

Installed capacity break up as on Feb,’14 – 237GW

All India installed capacity stood at 251GW in Sep ‘14. Coal capacity comprised 59%. We expect contribution of coalbased capacity to further improve.

Capacity Addition: Capacity Addition July '14 Target Ach (%) YTDFY15 Target Ach (%)Thermal 700 1020 70 4731 4,230 118Nuclear ‐ ‐ na ‐ na Hydro 68 80 85 267 286 93Total 768 1100 4998 4,516 107

Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research In July ’14 capacity addition stood at 768 MW including thermal capacity of 700 MW and hydro capacity of 68MW as compared to target of 1100MW addition in July ’14. YTD FY15 capacity addition stood at 5GW, 134% of the targeted capacity.


Management

(91 22) 2300 2999(91 22) 6667 9735

Research Engineering, Capital Goods Pharma

Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6667 9769 Ankur Sharma (9122) 6667 9759 Surya Patra (9122) 6667 9768Priya Ranjan (9122) 6667 9965 Hrishikesh Bhagat (9122) 6667 9986

Retail, Real EstateInfrastructure & IT Services Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA (9122) 6667 9952

Manish Agarwalla (9122) 6667 9962 Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6667 9949 Neha Garg (9122) 6667 9996Paresh Jain (9122) 6667 9948 Varun Vijayan (9122) 6667 9992

TechnicalsConsumer, Media, Telecom Midcap Subodh Gupta, CMT (9122) 6667 9762Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6667 9947 Vikram Suryavanshi (9122) 6667 9951Vivekanand Subbaraman (9122) 6667 9766 Production ManagerManish Pushkar, CFA (9122) 6667 9764 Metals Ganesh Deorukhkar (9122) 6667 9966

Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6667 9769Cement Database ManagerVaibhav Agarwal (9122) 6667 9967 Oil&Gas, Agri Inputs Vishal Randive (9122) 6667 9944

Gauri Anand (9122) 6667 9943Economics Deepak Pareek (9122) 6667 9950 Sr. Manager – Equities SupportAnjali Verma (9122) 6667 9969 Rosie Ferns (9122) 6667 9971

Sales & Distribution Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari (9122) 6667 9946 Dipesh Sohani (9122) 6667 9756 Zarine Damania (9122) 6667 9976Ashvin Patil (9122) 6667 9991 Sales TraderShubhangi Agrawal (9122) 6667 9964 Dilesh Doshi (9122) 6667 9747 Kishor Binwal (9122) 6667 9989 Suniil Pandit (9122) 6667 9745Sidharth Agrawal (9122) 6667 9934 ExecutionBhavin Shah (9122) 6667 9974 Mayur Shah (9122) 6667 9945

Corporate Communications

Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director)Jignesh Shah (Head – Equity Derivatives)

Automobiles

Banking, NBFCs

Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)

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JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd

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Tel (62) 21 5790 0800 Fax: (62) 21 5790 0809 www.phillip.co.id

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http://www.phillipcapital.in/

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