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PC - Power Snapshots -Nov 14 -...
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Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report. Power Snapshots Demand picks up, domestic coal production improves 21 November 2014 PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Our monthly chart book tracks key variables across the power sector including power generation, deficits, capacity addition, coal production/off take and short term market prices. Key highlights for the month are: » All India power generation up 14% YoY, PLF’s suboptimal. In Oct, all India generation grew 14% YoY to 85BU’s driven by 18.5% growth in Thermal generation. Also PLF at 56% was up 200bps YoY. Coal based PLF at 66% (+400bps YoY). » NTPC’s generation rebounds; PAF also improves: NTPC’s coal based generation was up 13% YoY to 19.2BU lead by higher demand. Coal based PLF was up 500bps YoY to 79% (+500bps on MoM basis) and PAF up +900bps to ~82%.. Gas based PLF improved to 33% YoY. » IPP’s generation robust: IPP’s generation grew 29% YoY and PLF improved 300bps YoY to 66%; lead by improvement in domestic coal supply. Rosa TPS PLF stood at 80%. JSW Vijaynagar TPS and Ratnagiri TPS PLF stood at 97% and 91% respectively. Also lead by improvement in supply from captive mines, RWPL reported PLF of 81%. APL’s Mundra TPS and Tiroda TPS reported PLF at 89% and 86% respectively. » International coal prices flat, CIL coal production improves. We note international coal prices were relatively flat MoM and stood at USD 65/ton (RB coal index) and USD 37 (4200kcal Indonesia Enviro Coal). In October CIL’s coal production was up 15% YoY to 40mn tons and dispatch at 39mn ton (+10% YoY). During FY15 (April‐Oct) production and dispatch stood at 252mn tons (+7%YoY) and 270mn tons (+4% YoY), respectively. » Demand improves: Demand has picked up significantly and was up 13% YoY in Oct’14 and supply grew 12.5% YoY leading to base deficit at 4.3%, up 80bps YoY. We note sharp increase in deficit in Southern India in Telangana (15%) and in UP (16%). The peak deficit was at 4.1% (+110bps YoY). In Oct’14, IEX prices were up 45% YoY to Rs 4.2/kwh and in Southern region prices were up 63% YoY to Rs5/kwh. » 660 MW capacities added in Sept ’14; 8.9GW added YTDFY15. In Sept ’14, capacity addition stood at 660 MW including thermal capacity and during FY15 (April‐August’14) capacity addition was 8.9 GW, 100% of the targeted capacity. Key capacity commissioned during August include 600 MW Unit 3 of Tiroda by Adani Power. Ankur Sharma (+ 9122 6667 759 [email protected]) Hrishikesh Bhagat (+ 9122 6667 9986 [email protected])
Transcript of PC - Power Snapshots -Nov 14 -...
Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.
Power Snapshots Demand picks up, domestic coal production improves
21 November 2014PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Our monthly chart book tracks key variables across the power sector including power generation, deficits, capacity addition, coal production/off take and short term market prices. Key highlights for the month are:
» All India power generation up 14% YoY, PLF’s suboptimal. In Oct, all India generation grew 14% YoY to 85BU’s driven by 18.5% growth in Thermal generation. Also PLF at 56% was up 200bps YoY. Coal based PLF at 66% (+400bps YoY).
» NTPC’s generation rebounds; PAF also improves: NTPC’s coal based generation was up 13% YoY to 19.2BU lead by higher demand. Coal based PLF was up 500bps YoY to 79% (+500bps on MoM basis) and PAF up +900bps to ~82%.. Gas based PLF improved to 33% YoY.
» IPP’s generation robust: IPP’s generation grew 29% YoY and PLF improved 300bps YoY to 66%; lead by improvement in domestic coal supply. Rosa TPS PLF stood at 80%. JSW Vijaynagar TPS and Ratnagiri TPS PLF stood at 97% and 91% respectively. Also lead by improvement in supply from captive mines, RWPL reported PLF of 81%. APL’s Mundra TPS and Tiroda TPS reported PLF at 89% and 86% respectively.
» International coal prices flat, CIL coal production improves. We note international coal prices were relatively flat MoM and stood at USD 65/ton (RB coal index) and USD 37 (4200kcal Indonesia Enviro Coal). In October CIL’s coal production was up 15% YoY to 40mn tons and dispatch at 39mn ton (+10% YoY). During FY15 (April‐Oct) production and dispatch stood at 252mn tons (+7%YoY) and 270mn tons (+4% YoY), respectively.
» Demand improves: Demand has picked up significantly and was up 13% YoY in Oct’14 and supply grew 12.5% YoY leading to base deficit at 4.3%, up 80bps YoY. We note sharp increase in deficit in Southern India in Telangana (15%) and in UP (16%). The peak deficit was at 4.1% (+110bps YoY). In Oct’14, IEX prices were up 45% YoY to Rs 4.2/kwh and in Southern region prices were up 63% YoY to Rs5/kwh.
» 660 MW capacities added in Sept ’14; 8.9GW added YTDFY15. In Sept ’14, capacity addition stood at 660 MW including thermal capacity and during FY15 (April‐August’14) capacity addition was 8.9 GW, 100% of the targeted capacity. Key capacity commissioned during August include 600 MW Unit 3 of Tiroda by Adani Power.
Ankur Sharma (+ 9122 6667 759 [email protected]) Hrishikesh Bhagat (+ 9122 6667 9986 [email protected])
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
All India generation and PLF’s
All India Capacity (excl renew.) and PLF (MW)
In October ’14 all India PLF was up 200bps YoY and MoM at 56%.
Fuel wise generation and growth (%)
Thermal generation at 77BU up 22% YoY lead by 19% growth in coal based generation. Nuclear generation was down 10% YoY to 2.7BU and hydro generation was down 7.5%.
Thermal PLF’s (sector wise) (%)
Central utilities PLF was up 300bps YoY to 72% and State utilities PLF was up 700bps YoY to 61% and IPP’s PLF although sub optimal improved 300bps YoY to 66%.
PLF by fuel type (%)
Overall coal PLF’s were up 400bps YoY to 66%. Gas based plants continue to operate at sub‐optimal PLF of 22%.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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NTPC’s generation and PLF’s
Coal based generation and PLF
NTPC’s coal based generation was up 13% to 20.2 BU. We note MoM PLF has improved at Kahalgaon TPS, Farkka TPS Singrauli TPS,Korba TPS.
Gas based generation and PLF
NTPC’s gas based generation was down 2% and PLF’s continue to languish at 33% on low availability of gas.
Coal based PLF (Plant wise)
NTPC’s Rihand TPS and Sipat TPS reported substantial improvement on YoY basis. PLF of Ramagundam TPS and Talcher TPS also improved. Decline in PLF was at Singrauli TPS and Vindhyachal TPS.
Gas based PLF (plant wise)
PLF for most gas based plants improved MoM.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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NTPC’s generation and PLF’s
NTPC’ coal based generation (MU)
Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14Growth
YoYGrowth MoM
Badarpur 344 250 300 382 321 281 270 371 433 405 290 237 319 (7) 34 Dadri 1,155 1,098 1,100 1,239 1,042 1,082 847 1,168 1,166 1,086 1,015 1,055 1,009 (13) (4) Farakka 1,134 1,091 1,282 1,302 1,095 1,244 1,026 1,148 1,034 1,130 1,086 919 1,135 0 24 Kahalgaon 1,213 1,291 1,402 1,387 1,186 1,338 1,381 1,311 1,242 1,096 1,179 1,140 1,481 22 30 Korba 1,794 1,893 1,798 1,909 1,742 1,853 1,626 1,743 1,756 1,403 1,344 1,700 1,825 2 7 Mauda 5 100 136 193 195 148 380 329 215 216 284 274 263 4,800 (4) Ramagundem 1,453 1,716 1,802 1,729 1,722 1,881 1,875 1,623 1,592 1,565 1,554 1,444 1,606 11 11 Rihand 1,390 1,475 1,705 1,554 1,549 1,810 1,939 1,882 1,775 1,729 1,466 1,567 1,814 30 16 Simhadri 1,043 1,025 1,295 1,382 1,310 1,445 1,458 1,452 1,380 1,386 1,034 1,048 944 (10) (10) Singrauli 1,483 1,446 1,457 1,429 1,300 1,089 1,329 1,308 1,267 1,290 1,145 1,099 1,088 (27) (1) Sipat 1,062 1,568 1,950 1,983 1,624 2,025 2,021 1,601 1,547 1,567 1,690 1,921 1,900 79 (1) Talcher 323 322 344 348 311 349 334 647 318 267 308 300 319 (1) 6 Talcher 1,433 1,955 2,015 2,165 1,938 2,204 2,095 1,795 1,731 1,722 1,658 2,183 2,023 41 (7) Tanda 263 317 331 319 296 302 272 303 251 284 242 248 255 (3) 3 Unchahar 591 702 710 704 644 644 618 644 696 751 708 555 636 7 15 Vindhyachal 2,361 2,525 2,677 2,393 2,335 2,753 2,849 2,874 2,620 2,320 1,830 2,083 2,489 5 20 Coal gen 17,049 18,776 20,304 20,418 18,610 20,449 20,392 20,217 19,065 18,330 16,875 17,773 19,250 13 8
NTPC’ coal based PLF’s (%)
PLF (%) Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14YoY (%)
MoM (%)
Badarpur 66 49 57 73 68 64 53 71 85 77 55 46 61 (4.8) 14.7 Dadri 85 84 81 91 85 80 65 86 82 80 75 77 75 (10.8) (2.9)Farakka 73 72 82 83 78 80 68 73 68 72 69 61 73 0.0 12.0 Kahalgaon 70 77 81 80 75 77 82 75 74 63 68 60 85 15.4 25.2 Korba 93 101 93 99 100 96 87 90 94 73 69 70 94 1.6 24.6 Mauda 1 28 36 52 58 18 53 44 30 29 38 44 35 33.9 (8.3)Ramagundem 75 92 93 89 99 97 100 84 85 81 80 76 83 7.9 6.6 Rihand 75 82 92 84 92 89 90 84 82 77 66 74 81 6.5 7.2 Simhadri 70 71 87 93 97 97 101 98 96 93 69 71 63 (6.7) (7.6)Singrauli 100 100 98 96 97 73 92 88 88 87 77 75 73 (26.5) (1.4)Sipat 48 73 88 89 81 91 94 72 72 71 76 87 86 37.8 (1.3)Talcher 92 95 98 100 98 100 101 102 96 78 90 88 93 1.0 5.0 Talcher 64 91 90 97 96 99 97 96 80 77 74 81 91 26.4 9.8 Tanda 80 100 101 97 100 92 86 92 79 87 74 74 78 (2.4) 4.2 Unchahar 76 93 91 90 91 82 82 82 92 96 91 73 81 5.7 8.5 Vindhyachal 84 93 96 86 92 93 93 91 85 73 58 68 79 (5.9) 10.8 Coal PLF (rhs) 74 84 88 89 90 87 87 84 82 76 70 74 79 4.8 5.1
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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IPP’s generation and PLF’s
Tata Power ‐ Mundra UMPP
Mundra UMPP’s PLF stood at 89%. (+2000pps YoY)
Tata Power ‐ Maithon power
Maithon PLF stood at 92% (+1800pps YoY).
Adani Power ‐ Mundra
Adani Power’s Mundra unit operated at PLF of 89%(+1000bps YoY).
Reliance Power ‐ Rosa
Rosa TPS PLF at 80%(‐600bps YoY) as Unit 4 was under shutdown..
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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IPP’s generation and PLF’s
JSW Energy ‐ Vijaynagar
JSW continued generation at robust PLF in Vijaynagar. For the 260MW plant, PLF stood at 99% and in the 660MW plant PLF stood at 101%.
JSW Energy‐ Ratnagiri
Ratnagiri generation stood at 818MU and PLF stood at 91%(+1800bps YoY).
JSW Energy‐ RWPL
Rajwest PLF improved to 81% lead by clearance for mine expansion.
Torrent – Sugen
Subdued performance in Sugen continued due to lower availability of gas. PLF stood at 27%.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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IPP’s generation and PLF’s
Karcham Wangtoo
Karcham Wangtoo PLF stood at 32% (‐500bps YoY) .
Bina
Bina TPS reported PLF at 72% due to higher fuel availability.
CESC
CESC PLF at 79% was flat YoY.
Jindal Power – Tamnar I
Tamnar TPS generated 1.1 BU and operated at PLF of 70%.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
International coal prices and Coal India’s production/off take Richard Bay, New Castle and HBA index (USD/ton)
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research RB index prices were flat MoM to ~ USD66/ton to almost 4 year lows in the month of Oct’14. New Castle and HBA index also followed a similar trend.
CIL production (mn ton) & growth
CIL production in Oct ’14 stood at 40mton up 15% yoy.In FY15, production during April‐ Sept was up 7% yoy.
CIL off take (mn ton) & growth
CIL off take in Oct ’14 stood at 39mton up 10% yoy. In FY15, during April‐ Oct offtake grew 4% yoy.
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
Energy demand and supply
Power demand(MU) and growth
Demand has picked up meaningfully and was up 13% YoY in Sept’14
Base deficit and Peak deficit
Base deficit was up 80bps YoY to 4.3%. The peak deficit was up 110bps YoY at 4.1%
Region wise base deficit
The deficit in Northern region was up 70bps YoY to 7%. In Southern region deficit was up 300bps at 7% due to significant rise in deficit in Telangana. In western India deficit was flat YoY at 1% however deficit in UP stood at 16%.
Power cut on industry
Power cut in industry in Northern region was mainly led by Uttarakhand (140 MW) and UP (700MW). In Southern region, all the states contributed leading to power cuts on industry of 7,347MW.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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Short term volumes and prices
Short term volumes (MU) & as % of overall gen Bilateral volumes(MU) and prices
Short term volumes stood at 9BU’s, ~10.5% of total generation
Bilateral volumes were down 12% MoM at 4.8BU and Bilateral prices was up 3% MoM to Rs 4.28/kwh.
UI volumes(MU) and prices
UI volumes were down 2% YoY and UI prices were up 19% MoM to Rs 2.54/kwh.
IEX volumes(MU) and prices
The IEX prices were up 56% YoY to Rs 4.1/kwh in the month of Oct’14 and volumes were down 13% MoM. In Oct’14, IEX prices were up 45% YoY and in Southern region prices were up 63% YoY to Rs5/kwh.
Source: CERC, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
Capacity addition
Capacity addition month wise
In Sept ’14 capacity addition stood at 250 MW of thermal capacity
Installed capacity break up as on Sept,’14 – 249GW
All India installed capacity stood at 249GW in Sep ‘14. Coal capacity comprised 60%. We expect contribution of coal based capacity to further improve.
Capacity Addition: Capacity Addition Sept'14 Target Ach (%) YTDFY15 Target Ach (%)Thermal 660 1395 47 8711 8696 100Nuclear ‐ ‐ ‐ na Hydro 0 267 286 93Total 660 1395 47 8978 8982 100
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research In Sept ’14 capacity addition stood at 660 MW including thermal capacity and during FY15 (April‐August’14) capacity addition was 8.9 GW, 100% of the targeted capacity. Key capacities commissioned during August include 600 MW Unit 3 of Tiroda by Adani Power.
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Management
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