1 Turkey : Economic Outlook December 22, 2008. 2 YoY GDP Growth Rate Source: Turkstat, YKB Research.

1

Turkey : Economic OutlookDecember 22, 2008

2

YoY GDP Growth Rate

Source: Turkstat, YKB Research

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2004

Q1

2004

Q2

2004

Q3

2004

Q4

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

3

”Effective Days Adjusted” GDP YoY Growth Rate

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

Effective Days Adjusted YoY Growth Rate GDP YoY Growth Rate


4

Industrial Production Index versus Total Industry in GDP

Source: YKB Research

5

Expenditures – Contributions to Growth

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3

Private Consumption Public Consumption Public Investment

Private Investment Change in Stocks Net Exports


6

Private Expenditures - YoY Growth Rates

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

2004

Q1

2004

Q2

2004

Q3

2004

Q4

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

Private Consumption Private Investment


7

Public Expenditures - YoY Growth Rates

-25.00%

-15.00%

-5.00%

5.00%

15.00%

25.00%

35.00%

2004

Q1

2004

Q2

2004

Q3

2004

Q4

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

Public Consumption Public Investments


8

Domestic & External Demand’s Contributions

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

External Demand Domestic Demand


9

Production- YoY Growth Rates

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3

Agriculture Industry Construction Services


10

Production- Sector Contributions

%

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

Agriculture Industry Services


11

Production- Service Sector’s Components’ YoY Growth Rates

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004

Q1

2004

Q2

2004

Q3

2004

Q4

2005

Q1

2005

Q2

2005

Q3

2005

Q4

2006

Q1

2006

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2007

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

2008

Q3

Construction Trade Transportation Financial Intermediation Services


12

Production- Service Sector’s Component’s Contributions

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3

Construction Trade Transportation Financial Intermediation Services Other Services


13

Industry/Agriculture Performance-Conditional 2008 GDP Growth Rate

Source: YKB Research

14

Medium Term GDP Growth*

For details please see Occasional Macro Note: “A Forecasting Exercise on Turkey’s Medium Term GDP Growth”- Nov 17, 2008.

15

Consumer Credit Volume (*)

(*)Weekly % change of 4W moving average Source: Central Bank of Turkey, YKB Research

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

05-2007 07-2007 09-2007 11-2007 12-2007 02-2008 04-2008 06-2008 08-2008 10-2008 11-2008

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Housing (left Scale) Others (Left Scale) Car loans

16

Consumer Credit Volume (*)


-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

05-2007 07-2007 09-2007 11-2007 12-2007 02-2008 04-2008 06-2008 08-2008 10-2008 11-2008

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

Housing (left Scale) Others (Left Scale) Car loans

17

Commercial &Consumer Credit Volume (*)


-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

08-2006

10-2006

11-2006

01-2007

03-2007

04-2007

06-2007

08-2007

09-2007

11-2007

12-2007

02-2008

04-2008

05-2008

07-2008

09-2008

10-2008

Commercial Credits Consumer Credits

18

IP Annual Growth

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

Industrial Production (*)

(*) Y-on-Y growth

%

Source: Turkstat

19

Industrial Production


IPI _Sa

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

6MMA Y-on-Y

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

20

Industrial Production- Days Adjusted


3.4%

-5.5%-4.0%

7.5%

11.4%

2.5%

6.3%

2.4%

0.8%

-7.5%

-2.0%

5.2%

6.8%4.6%

4.0%

7.9%

0.1%

0.8%

-10%

-7%

-4%

-1%

2%

5%

8%

11%

14%

IPI Eff. Days-Adjusted IPI

3.4%

5.7% 5.8%

8.5%

8.3%

3.9%4.4%

5.1%

6.9%

3.1%

-2.0%

5.7%5.8%7.6%

9.0%

5.4%

3.5%4.4%

8.3%

5.5%4.2%

-3.2%

-5%

-3%

0%

3%

5%

8%

10%

2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2009 Q1

IPI Eff. Days-Adjusted IPI

21

Current Account vs. Financing

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Current Account Deficit Financing

22

Exports vs. Imports

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Exports Imports

23

Year end Growth Expectations

5.1

4.75.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5

4.24.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8

4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.13.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Dec07 I

II Jan08 I

II Feb 08 I

II Mar08 I

II Apr08 I

II May08 I

II Jun08 I

II Jul08 I

II Aug08 I

II Sep08 I

II

24

Productivity vs. Investment

Productivity vs. Investment(annual % change)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Investment (right scale)

Total

Industry

Services

(%) (%)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT. In productivity calculations, employment data from household laborforce statistics are used.

25

Agriculture

Agriculture (Growth vs. Employment, annual % change)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15GrowthEmploymentLinear (Growth)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT

(%)

26

Industry

Industry (Growth vs. Employment, annual % change)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT

(%)

27

Services

Services (Growth vs. Employment, annual % change)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT

(%)

28

Workforce

Workforce

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54ParticipationUnemploymentNon-agricultural

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT

(%) (%)

29

Inflation Expectations

Source: CBRT

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0A

pr 0

6 I

Jun

06 II

Sep

06

I

Nov

06

II

Feb

07

I

Apr

07

II

Jul 0

7 I

Sep

07

II

Dec

07

I

Feb

08

II

May

08

I

Jul 0

8 II

Oct

08

I

Dec

08

II

Year-end CPI Expectation (right scale) 12M ahead CPI expectation

24M ahead CPI expectation

30

Special CPI (A)

Source: Turkstat

A ( CPI excluding seasonal products )

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

(%)

31

Special CPI (B)

Source: Turkstat

B(CPI excluding unprocessed food products)

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

(%)

32

Special CPI (C)

Source: Turkstat

C(CPI excluding energy)

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

(%)

33

Special CPI (D)

Source: Turkstat

D(CPI excluding energy and unprocessed food

products )

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

(%)

34

Special CPI (E)

Source: Turkstat

E(CPI excluding energy and liquor & tobacco)

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

(%)

35

Special CPI (F)

Source: Turkstat

F(CPI excluding energy, liquor & tobacco, administrated products, indirect taxes)

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

(%)

36

Special CPI (G)

Source: Turkstat

G(CPI F excluding unprocessed food products)

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

(%)

37

Special CPI (H)

Source: Turkstat

HCPI excluding energy, unprocessed food

products, liquor & tobacco, gold

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

(%)

38

SPECIAL CPI (I)

Source: Turkstat

ICPI excluding energy, food and beverages,

liquor & tobacco, gold

3

5

7

9

11

13

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-0

8

(%)

1 Turkey : Economic Outlook December 22, 2008. 2 YoY GDP Growth Rate Source: Turkstat, YKB Research.

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Transcript of 1 Turkey : Economic Outlook December 22, 2008. 2 YoY GDP Growth Rate Source: Turkstat, YKB Research.