1 OPTIMA INCO-MPC Project kick-off Meeting, October 28/29 Malta DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria...

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OPTIMA INCO-MPCOPTIMA INCO-MPCProject kick-offProject kick-off Meeting,Meeting,

October 28/29 MaltaOctober 28/29 Malta

OPTIMA INCO-MPCOPTIMA INCO-MPCProject kick-offProject kick-off Meeting,Meeting,

October 28/29 MaltaOctober 28/29 Malta

DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, [email protected] http://www.ess.co.at

Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, [email protected] http://www.ess.co.at

Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

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WP03: ModellingWP03: Modelling

MODELS provide a

• Formal

• Structured

• Quantitative

description of the problems and possible solutions.

MODELS provide a

• Formal

• Structured

• Quantitative

description of the problems and possible solutions.

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WP03: ModellingWP03: ModellingWP1: identifies problem issues, develops a

structure for the description of the cases, identifies data needs and availability, constraints;

WP2 analyzes perceptions and preferences, institutional or regulatory frameworks, plausible socio-economic developments;

WP4 compiles the set of ALTERNATIVE WATER TECHNOLOGIES that can be used;

WP5 looks into LAND USE change as one of the major driving forces, consistent with WP 2.

WP1: identifies problem issues, develops a structure for the description of the cases, identifies data needs and availability, constraints;

WP2 analyzes perceptions and preferences, institutional or regulatory frameworks, plausible socio-economic developments;

WP4 compiles the set of ALTERNATIVE WATER TECHNOLOGIES that can be used;

WP5 looks into LAND USE change as one of the major driving forces, consistent with WP 2.

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WP1, 2, 4 and 5 develop the boundary conditions and specifications for

• Complete

• Consistent• Plausible

Set of SCENARIOS for simulation modelling and optimization.

WP1, 2, 4 and 5 develop the boundary conditions and specifications for

• Complete

• Consistent• Plausible

Set of SCENARIOS for simulation modelling and optimization.

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WaterWare dynamic water resources model (daily, annual) optimization

Embedded models:• RRM rainfall-runoff model • Automatic RRM calibration• IRWDM irrigation water demand modelRelated model:• LUC dynamic land use change model

WaterWare dynamic water resources model (daily, annual) optimization

Embedded models:• RRM rainfall-runoff model • Automatic RRM calibration• IRWDM irrigation water demand modelRelated model:• LUC dynamic land use change model

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WP 3: ModellingWP 3: Modelling

Models provide estimates for

1. Economic efficiency

2. Environmental compatibility

3. Equity (intra- and intergenerational)

Models provide estimates for

1. Economic efficiency

2. Environmental compatibility

3. Equity (intra- and intergenerational)

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WP03: ModellingWP03: ModellingLUC: land use change model• Discrete state (LUC) transition model• Markov chain with stochastic transition

probabilities• Rule-based constraints and TP adjustments• Temporal resolution: year, scope: decades (20-

50 years)• Spatial resolution: ha to km2

• Resource use and pollution as land-use specific output;

• Possibility for external, global driving forces

LUC: land use change model• Discrete state (LUC) transition model• Markov chain with stochastic transition

probabilities• Rule-based constraints and TP adjustments• Temporal resolution: year, scope: decades (20-

50 years)• Spatial resolution: ha to km2

• Resource use and pollution as land-use specific output;

• Possibility for external, global driving forces

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WP03: LUC ModellingWP03: LUC Modelling

Global/local adjustments of the transition probabilities expressed as

First-order logic RULES

in relative terms (INCREASE, DECREASE in %).

http://www.ess.co.at/SMART/luc.html

Global/local adjustments of the transition probabilities expressed as

First-order logic RULES

in relative terms (INCREASE, DECREASE in %).

http://www.ess.co.at/SMART/luc.html

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Interactive editors for1. Land use classes2. Transition probabilities3. Modifying rules4. Class specific resource needs/outputs

are available on-line together with the viewer (player for animated results)

Links from http://www.ess.co.at/SMART will be moved to http://ww.ess.co.at/OPTIMA

Interactive editors for1. Land use classes2. Transition probabilities3. Modifying rules4. Class specific resource needs/outputs

are available on-line together with the viewer (player for animated results)

Links from http://www.ess.co.at/SMART will be moved to http://ww.ess.co.at/OPTIMA

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Derived values per unit area, class specific:

1. Water consumption2. Waste water generated3. Energy use4. Solid waste production

OTHERS ??

Derived values per unit area, class specific:

1. Water consumption2. Waste water generated3. Energy use4. Solid waste production

OTHERS ??

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LUC EXTENSIONS:

Include transportation network in rules (connectivity)

Other external variables (specified as time series)

More LUC specific coefficients and processes (employment, value added, etc)

LUC EXTENSIONS:

Include transportation network in rules (connectivity)

Other external variables (specified as time series)

More LUC specific coefficients and processes (employment, value added, etc)

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LUC OBJECTIVES:

1.Hypothesis testing

2. Developing CONSISTENT scenarios with high explanatory value that can also be used directly in the rainfall-runoff basin water budget model

LUC OBJECTIVES:

1.Hypothesis testing

2. Developing CONSISTENT scenarios with high explanatory value that can also be used directly in the rainfall-runoff basin water budget model

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RRM: rainfall-runoff model• Dynamic, daily time step• Uses daily rainfall and temperature• Major basin characteristic: LAND USE

(summarized from LUC scenarios ??)• Estimates runoff and dynamic water

budget for ungaged basins, provides input for WRM start nodes (catchment)

RRM: rainfall-runoff model• Dynamic, daily time step• Uses daily rainfall and temperature• Major basin characteristic: LAND USE

(summarized from LUC scenarios ??)• Estimates runoff and dynamic water

budget for ungaged basins, provides input for WRM start nodes (catchment)

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WP03: RRM ModellingWP03: RRM Modelling• Includes automatic calibration with runoff

observation data• Method: Monte Carlo, evolutionary

programming; • Extract reliable features (Gestalt) from

observations, define as constraints on model behavior,

• FROM TO (period) CMIN < FEATURE < CMAX FEATURES: min, max, avg, total, values

• Includes automatic calibration with runoff observation data

• Method: Monte Carlo, evolutionary programming;

• Extract reliable features (Gestalt) from observations, define as constraints on model behavior,

• FROM TO (period) CMIN < FEATURE < CMAX FEATURES: min, max, avg, total, values

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WP03: WR ModellingWP03: WR Modelling

WRM: water resources model• Dynamic, daily time step• Topology of NODES and REACHES• Demand nodes (cities, irrigation,

industry, tourism)• Estimates dynamic water budget,

supply/demand, reliability of supply• Complete on-line implementation with

editors

WRM: water resources model• Dynamic, daily time step• Topology of NODES and REACHES• Demand nodes (cities, irrigation,

industry, tourism)• Estimates dynamic water budget,

supply/demand, reliability of supply• Complete on-line implementation with

editors

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User/scenario management:• User authentication by name and

password (monitored … )• User can see and copy ALL scenarios,

edit/delete only their own !• TEST scenarios installed as EXAMPLES

to demonstrate features implemented • On-line manual pages

User/scenario management:• User authentication by name and

password (monitored … )• User can see and copy ALL scenarios,

edit/delete only their own !• TEST scenarios installed as EXAMPLES

to demonstrate features implemented • On-line manual pages

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Model structure:Topology (network) of NODES, connected

by REACHES;NODES represent functional OBJECTS in

the basin:• Sub-catchments, well(s) fields, springs• Reservoirs, structures• Water demand: cities, irrigation districts,

industries, environmental uses (wetlands, minimum flow)


by REACHES;NODES represent functional OBJECTS in

the basin:• Sub-catchments, well(s) fields, springs• Reservoirs, structures• Water demand: cities, irrigation districts,

industries, environmental uses (wetlands, minimum flow)

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by REACHES:Represent natural and man-made channels,

canals, pipelines that transfer (route) water between NODES.

Networks include:• Diversions (splitting the flow)• Confluences (merging flow)


by REACHES:Represent natural and man-made channels,

canals, pipelines that transfer (route) water between NODES.

Networks include:• Diversions (splitting the flow)• Confluences (merging flow)

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Water demand NODESWater demand NODES

IntakeIntakequality constraint, quality constraint, conveyance lossconveyance loss

Consumptive useConsumptive use

recyclingrecyclingreturn flowreturn flow(pollution)(pollution)

Water demand Water demand and use:and use:

1.1. domestic,domestic,2.2. agricultural,agricultural,3.3. industrialindustrial

Costs of supply Benefits of use

Costs of supply Benefits of use

losses

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DEMAND NODE is defined by• Its type (domestic, industrial, agricultural)

• Its connectivity (upstream, downstream, aquifer)

• Its water demand (time series)• Conveiance losses (evaporation, seepage)

• Consumptive use fraction, resulting in• return flow, and its losses• Quality changes (pollution)

• Costs of supply – Benefits of use

DEMAND NODE is defined by• Its type (domestic, industrial, agricultural)

• Its connectivity (upstream, downstream, aquifer)

• Its water demand (time series)• Conveiance losses (evaporation, seepage)

• Consumptive use fraction, resulting in• return flow, and its losses• Quality changes (pollution)

• Costs of supply – Benefits of use

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WRM EXTENSIONS:1. Full groundwater coupling, single or

multi-cell aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling, in/exfiltration for reaches

2. Quality integration (return flow)3. Economic analysis:

1. Water efficiency; added value/unit water2. Cost-benefit analysis, requires, per node:

Investment, lifetime, OMR, discount rate

WRM EXTENSIONS:1. Full groundwater coupling, single or

multi-cell aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling, in/exfiltration for reaches

2. Quality integration (return flow)3. Economic analysis:

1. Water efficiency; added value/unit water2. Cost-benefit analysis, requires, per node:

Investment, lifetime, OMR, discount rate

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Full groundwater coupling, single or multi-cell aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling, in/exfiltration for reaches

Every node is optionally connected to an AQUIFER OBJECT:

1. Extracting water from it (wells, infiltration (lateral inflow, baseflow contribution) into reaches, depending on relative levels

2. Returning water to it: seepage losses, explicit recharge

Full groundwater coupling, single or multi-cell aquifers with Darcy-flow coupling, in/exfiltration for reaches

Every node is optionally connected to an AQUIFER OBJECT:

1. Extracting water from it (wells, infiltration (lateral inflow, baseflow contribution) into reaches, depending on relative levels

2. Returning water to it: seepage losses, explicit recharge

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WP5-9: ModellingWP5-9: Modelling

REMEMBER:

• Model applications are THE central part of the case studies !!!

• All data compilation in view of model input data requirements

REMEMBER:

• Model applications are THE central part of the case studies !!!

• All data compilation in view of model input data requirements

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WP03: Model stepsWP03: Model steps1. Define the domain or system boundaries

(river basin including any transfers !)2. Describe all important OBJECTS:• Inputs = sub-catchments, wells, springs,

transfers, desalination, Aquifers• Demands: cities, tourist resorts,

industries, agriculture (irrigated)• Structures: reservoirs 2. Define NETWORK: link nodes through

reaches (connectivity)

1. Define the domain or system boundaries (river basin including any transfers !)

2. Describe all important OBJECTS:• Inputs = sub-catchments, wells, springs,

transfers, desalination, Aquifers• Demands: cities, tourist resorts,

industries, agriculture (irrigated)• Structures: reservoirs 2. Define NETWORK: link nodes through

reaches (connectivity)

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WP03: Model stepsWP03: Model steps1. Compile and edit the DATA for the

NODES and REACHES:– Time series of flow, pumping, water

demand, diversion, reservoir release as rules or explicit time series,

– Loss coefficients– Consumptive use fractions,– Costs (investment, OMR, and benefits per

units water supplied/used;

2. Edit one or more scenarios, document3. RUN the model, evaluate runs.

1. Compile and edit the DATA for the NODES and REACHES:

– Time series of flow, pumping, water demand, diversion, reservoir release as rules or explicit time series,

– Loss coefficients– Consumptive use fractions,– Costs (investment, OMR, and benefits per

units water supplied/used;

2. Edit one or more scenarios, document3. RUN the model, evaluate runs.

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WP03: OPTMIZATION stepsWP03: OPTMIZATION steps1. Define

• CRITERIA, sort into 1. OBJECTIVES (min/max) and 2. CONSTRAINTS (inequalities), set numerical values, symbolic targets;

2. RUN the optimization model on-line (that may take a while …)

3. ANALYZE results as input to WP 14, 15

1. Define• CRITERIA, sort into

1. OBJECTIVES (min/max) and 2. CONSTRAINTS (inequalities), set numerical values, symbolic targets;

2. RUN the optimization model on-line (that may take a while …)

3. ANALYZE results as input to WP 14, 15

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WP03: OPTMIZATION stepsWP03: OPTMIZATION stepsOPTIMIZATION generates sets of feasible

alternatives, each optimal in some (well defined) sense;

Discrete multi-criteria methodology SELECTS a single preferred solution from that set by defining preferences and trade-offs (multi-criteria) interactively:

Users explore the decision space to learn what can be obtained, and for what price (the trade-offs) and how to approach their UTOPIA solutions.

OPTIMIZATION generates sets of feasible alternatives, each optimal in some (well defined) sense;

Discrete multi-criteria methodology SELECTS a single preferred solution from that set by defining preferences and trade-offs (multi-criteria) interactively:

Users explore the decision space to learn what can be obtained, and for what price (the trade-offs) and how to approach their UTOPIA solutions.

1 OPTIMA INCO-MPC Project kick-off Meeting, October 28/29 Malta DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria...

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