The use of meteorological analogues to account for LAM QPF uncertainty
1 GREG QPF. 2 00–06 QPF 3 06–12 QPF 4 12–18 QPF.
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Transcript of 1 GREG QPF. 2 00–06 QPF 3 06–12 QPF 4 12–18 QPF.
1
GREG
QPF
2
00–06 QPF
3
06–12 QPF
4
12–18 QPF
5
18–24 QPF
6
00–24 QPF
7
GREG
QPF and Current Probabilities
8
00–06 QPF
9
00–06 P(>25 mm)
10
00–06 P(>50 mm)
11
00–06 P(>75 mm)
12
00–06 P(> 100 mm)
13
06–12 QPF
14
06–12 P(>25 mm)
15
06–12 P(>50 mm)
16
06–12 P(>75 mm)
17
06–12 P(>100 mm)
18
12–18 QPF
19
12–18 P(>25 mm)
20
12–18 P(>50 mm)
21
12–18 P(>75 mm)
22
12–18 P(>100 mm)
23
18–24 QPF
24
18–24 P(>25 mm)
25
18–24 P(>50 mm)
26
18–24 P(>75 mm)
27
18–24 P(>100 mm)
28
00–24 QPF
29
00–24 P(>50 mm)
30
00–24 P(>100 mm)
31
00–24 P(>150 mm)
32
00–24 P(>200 mm)
33
Greg
Probability Comparisons
34
00–06 P(>25 mm)
35
00–06 P(>25 mm)
36
00–06 P(>25 mm)
37
Point-by-Point Histograms
730.0
570.0
b
a
axy b
P(%)Count Before
Count After
0 620678 620678
18 0 3159
20 3159 0
24 0 9311
29 0 1847
30 9311 0
34 0 734
39 1847 0
40 0 3301
44 0 417
48 0 220
50 734 0
57 0 333
61 3301 0
70 417 0
80 220 0
100 333 0
25 mm, 6 hr
5 TRaP members
38
Radius-of-Influence Histograms
380.0
864.0
b
a
axy b
P(%)Count Before
Count After
0 620678 620678
20 3159 0
30 9311 0
39 1847 0
47 0 3159
50 734 0
55 0 9311
60 0 1847
61 3301 0
66 0 734
70 417 0
72 0 3301
75 0 417
79 0 220
80 220 0
86 0 333
100 333 0
25 mm, 6 hr
5 TRaP members
39
06–12 P(>50 mm)
40
06–12 P(>50 mm)
41
06–12 P(>50 mm)
42
Point-by-Point Histograms
574.0
314.0
b
a
axy b
50 mm, 6 hr
4 TRaP members
P(%)Count Before
Count After
0 635397 635397
12 0 594
16 0 3487
18 0 9
20 594 0
24 0 513
30 3487 0
39 9 0
61 513 0
43
Radius-of-Influence Histograms
382.0
726.0
b
a
axy b
50 mm, 6 hr
4 TRaP members
P(%)Count Before
Count After
0 635397 635397
20 594 0
30 3487 0
39 9 594
46 0 3487
51 0 9
60 0 513
61 513 0
44
12–18 P(>75 mm)
45
12–18 P(>75 mm)
46
12–18 P(>75 mm)
47
Point-by-Point Histograms75 mm, 6 hr
2 TRaP members
P(%)Count Before
Count After
0 638419 638419
7 0 1581
50 1482 0
100 99 0
080.0
072.0
b
a
axy b
a < 0.1 means nothing ever shows on the plots!
48
Radius-of-Influence Histograms
252.0
399.0
b
a
axy b
75 mm, 6 hr
2 TRaP members
P(%)Count Before
Count After
0 638419 638419
34 0 1482
40 0 99
50 1482 0
100 99 0
49
18–24 P(>100 mm)
50
18–24 P(>100 mm)
51
18–24 P(>100 mm)
52
Point-by-Point Histograms100 mm, 6 hr
2 TRaP members
630.0
055.0
b
a
axy b
a < 0.1 means nothing ever shows on the plots!
P(%)Count Before
Count After
0 639562 639562
4 0 438
50 438 0
53
Radius-of-Influence Histograms
308.0
242.0
b
a
axy b
100 mm, 6 hr
2 TRaP members
P(%)Count Before
Count After
0 639562 639562
20 0 438
50 438 0
54
00–24 P(>50 mm)
55
00–24 P(>50 mm)
56
00–24 P(>50 mm)
57
Point-by-Point Histograms50 mm, 24 hr
5 Independent TRaPs
672.0
695.0
b
a
axy b
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 20 40 60 80 100
Count Before
Count After
58
Radius-of-Influence Histograms
305.0
948.0
b
a
axy b
50 mm, 24 hr
5 Independent TRaPs
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Count Before
Count After
59
60
00–24 P(>50 mm)
61
00–24 P(>50 mm)
