HI-RES GRIDDED MOS 6-H QPF GUIDANCE
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HI-RES GRIDDED MOS 6-H QPF GUIDANCEHI-RES GRIDDED MOS 6-H QPF GUIDANCE
JESS CHARBAJESS CHARBA
FRED SAMPLATSKYFRED SAMPLATSKY
METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAA OST / NWS / NOAA
Details = http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154176.pdf
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OUTLINEOUTLINE
QPF PRODUCTSQPF PRODUCTS
STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL
CASE STUDIESCASE STUDIES
QPF COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCEQPF COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE
STATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION PLANSSTATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION PLANS
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
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QPF PRODUCTSQPF PRODUCTS
6- & 12-H QPFS TO 156 HRS / POP TO 192 HRS6- & 12-H QPFS TO 156 HRS / POP TO 192 HRS
PROBABILITY FOR EIGHT 6-H PRECIP CATEGORIES PROBABILITY FOR EIGHT 6-H PRECIP CATEGORIES ( (≥ 0.01 ” - ≥ 2.00 ”) ≥ 0.01 ” - ≥ 2.00 ”)
EXPECTED 6-H PRECIP AMTEXPECTED 6-H PRECIP AMT
CATEGORICAL 6-H PRECIP AMTCATEGORICAL 6-H PRECIP AMT
CONTINUOUS 6- &12-H PRECIP AMT (6-H MAX = CONTINUOUS 6- &12-H PRECIP AMT (6-H MAX = 4.7 ”)4.7 ”)
ISSUED TWICE PER DAYISSUED TWICE PER DAY
USE RFC STAGE III PRECIP ESTS. (QC’D AT MDL)USE RFC STAGE III PRECIP ESTS. (QC’D AT MDL)
4-KM (NATIVE) GRID4-KM (NATIVE) GRID
CONUS COVERAGECONUS COVERAGE
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STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL
REGIONALIZED REGRESSION REGIONALIZED REGRESSION EQUATIONS FOR 4-KM GRID EQUATIONS FOR 4-KM GRID
MULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTSMULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTS
REGIONSREGIONS
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PREDICTOR INPUTSPREDICTOR INPUTS
GFS MODEL OUTPUTGFS MODEL OUTPUT
HI-RES PRECIP CLIMATOLOGIES AND HI-RES PRECIP CLIMATOLOGIES AND TOPOGRAPGYTOPOGRAPGY
SPECIAL “INTERACTIVE” PREDICTORS SPECIAL “INTERACTIVE” PREDICTORS INJECT HI-RES TOPO-CLIMATE INPUT INJECT HI-RES TOPO-CLIMATE INPUT INTO QPFSINTO QPFS
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DISCRETE AND OVERLAPPING REGIONS
1
2
3
4
56
7
8
9
10
11
1213
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DISCRETE REGIONSDISCRETE REGIONS OVERLAPPING REGIONS & QPF OVERLAPPING REGIONS & QPF WEIGHTINGWEIGHTING
36-H PROB (%) 36-H PROB (%) ≥ 0.10 ” 6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 30 JAN 2008≥ 0.10 ” 6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 30 JAN 2008
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FORECAST PERFORMANCEFORECAST PERFORMANCE
6-H QPF CASE STUDIES6-H QPF CASE STUDIES
FROM 2008 (INDEP)FROM 2008 (INDEP)
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6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 2008
OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PRECIP (”)
12 H 84 H
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6-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 00Z 05 JAN 2008
OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PROB (%)
12 H; ≥ 0.50 ” 84 H; ≥ 1.00 ”
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6-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 2008
OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PRECIP (”)
18 H 42 H
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6-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 06Z 19 MAR 2008
OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PROB (%)
18 H; ≥ 0.50 ” 42 H; ≥ 1.00 ”
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6-H PERIOD ENDING 12Z 13 SEP 20086-H PERIOD ENDING 12Z 13 SEP 2008
OBS PRECIP (”) FCST PRECIP (”)
24 H 72 H
HUR. IKE
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FORECAST PERFORMANCEFORECAST PERFORMANCE
6-H QPF COMPARATIVE SCORES6-H QPF COMPARATIVE SCORES
FROM 2007-08 COOL SEASON FROM 2007-08 COOL SEASON (INDEP)(INDEP)
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DAY 1DAY 1
2007-08 COOL SEASON2007-08 COOL SEASON
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DAY 3DAY 3
2007-08 COOL SEASON2007-08 COOL SEASON
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DAY 2DAY 2
2007-08 COOL SEASON2007-08 COOL SEASON
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STATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION STATUS AND IMPLEMENTATION PLANS PLANS
EXPERIMENTAL QPFS PRODUCED IN EXPERIMENTAL QPFS PRODUCED IN REAL TIME SINCE JUNE 2008REAL TIME SINCE JUNE 2008
PLAN IS TO REPLACE/SUPPLEMENT PLAN IS TO REPLACE/SUPPLEMENT GRIDDED MOS QPFS IN NDGD GRIDDED MOS QPFS IN NDGD AROUND JAN 2010AROUND JAN 2010
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CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
HRMOS WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED QPF HRMOS WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED QPF GUIDANCE OVER CONUS GUIDANCE OVER CONUS
HRMOS QPFS WILL REPLACE & HRMOS QPFS WILL REPLACE & SUPPLEMENT NDGD GRIDDED MOS SUPPLEMENT NDGD GRIDDED MOS QPFS IN NEAR FUTUREQPFS IN NEAR FUTURE
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THE ENDTHE END