1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.
-
Upload
liliana-rogers -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.
![Page 1: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW
• Workshop
• Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009
• Audun Lem, FAO
![Page 2: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Outline
• World fish supply and demand– utilization and consumption– trade– China– prices
• Distribution trends• Rise of aquaculture• Conclusions
![Page 3: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
WORLD FISH SUPPLY
![Page 4: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
World fish production
Million t 2007 2008 2009e 2009/
2008
Capture 90 90 90 0
Farmed 50 52 52 0.8%
Total 140 142 142 0.3%
![Page 5: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
AquacultureCatch
Millions of tonnes
FISHSTAT 2007
World Fish Production
catch
aquaculture
![Page 6: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Role of China in production
World capture and aquaculture production
World excluding
China
China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Year
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
![Page 7: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Fish Utilization
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
OtherFEEDFOOD
Food uses
Feed
![Page 8: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Per caput food supply (est)
Kg/year 2007 2008 2009 2009/08
Food fish
16.9 16.9 16.8 -0.3%
Capture 9.4 9.3 9.2 -1.3%
Farmed 7.5 7.6 7.6 1.0%
![Page 9: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Fish in overall protein supply
![Page 10: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
World aquaculture production: growing quickly: 1950-2008,
but slowing down
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
AquacultureMillions of tonnes
aquaculture
![Page 11: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Aquaculture producers 2007
ChinaIndiaVietNamIndonesiaThailandBangladeshJapanChileNorwayRest
China
![Page 12: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Global Aquaculture Production
Rest of World
Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Pro
duct
ion
quan
tity
(ton
ne x
10
6 )
China vs Rest of Asia
Rest of Asia
China
0
20
40
60
1950 1970 1990Year
Pro
duct
ion
quan
tity
(ton
ne x
10
6)
Asia incl. China
![Page 13: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
WORLD TRADE
![Page 14: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Developing countriesor areas
Developed countriesor areas
World Fish Trade: Export Value - in 1000 US$ -
developing
developed
![Page 15: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
WORLD FISH EXPORTS US$ 99.5 BILLION (2008)
• TRADE STILL GROWING in ‘08– + 7 % (2008)
• 2008 IMPORTS > USD 100 BILL for 1st time • DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
– 50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS• NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM FISHERIES
CRUCIAL FOR MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES – US$ 26 bill. (2008)
![Page 16: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Share of world fisheries production destined to exports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
Production
Export
Million tonnes (live weight)
![Page 17: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Net exports from developing countries
Figure 28: Net exports of selected agricultural commodities by developing countries
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Fish Coffee Rubber Cocoa Bananas Meat Tea Sugar Rice Tobacco
US$ billions
1984
1994
2004
fish
![Page 18: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Norway6%
Canada4 %
Viet Nam4%
Chile4%
USA5%
Thailand6%
China10%
Russia2%
Indonesia2%
EU (25)26%
Main fish exporters 2008 (value)
![Page 19: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Main fish importers (2008)
• Japan USD 14.5 bill. 13.8 %
• US USD 14.1 bill. 13.5 %
• EU USD 49.0 bill. 46.8 %
• Total big 3 USD 77.6 bill. 74.1 %
• Total world USD 104.7 bill. 100 %
![Page 20: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Fish market trends• Japan: long-term decline but small rebound 2008
– high consumption: 65 kg/kaput– imports below 3 million tons in 2007
• USA: long-term growth, overtaking Japan as # 1 country– rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg
• consumer confidence falling in 2008 and 2009 • 2010 turn-around ?
• EU: long-term growth: # 1 market – expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg– rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile
• South America– low average consumption, 9 kg per kaput, slow increase– large potential for increase– supply increase must come from aquaculture
![Page 21: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Distribution
• 71 % of world imports by three markets• within these markets: supermarkets represent
50-85 % of retail sales• concentration of sales whereas industry remains
fragmented• same tendency in developing countries• at the same time: seafood retail net margins
reportedly low compared to other food products
![Page 22: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Future ?
• Supply side: more concentration in aquaculture for some species (salmon, European bass/bream)– focus on costs, economies of scale– focus on marketing and distribution
• Demand: retail concentration in developed and developing
• But aquaculture has some advantages over wild:– traceability– contracts on price and volumes
![Page 23: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
ISSUES OF IMPACT
![Page 24: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Role of China in production
World capture and aquaculture production
World excluding
China
China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Year
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
![Page 25: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Some recent data from Some recent data from ChinaChina
![Page 26: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Seafood Consumption - Seafood Consumption - ChinaChina
![Page 27: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Protein Consumption - Protein Consumption - ChinaChina
![Page 28: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
The next China: Viet Nam
• 2008: Nr 5 among world exporters
– but a growing importer as well
• reprocessing
• domestic consumption
![Page 29: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Commodity prices
• fish versus other food
![Page 30: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
Food prices, excl. fish
![Page 31: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
And fish ?Cod - In Germany, origin: Poland/Norw ay
4.04.55.05.56.06.57.0
Jan-
04
Jun-
04
Nov
-04
Apr
-05
Sep
-05
Feb
-06
Jul-0
6
Dec
-06
May
-07
Oct
-07
Mar
-08
Aug
-08
Jan-
09
Jun-
09
Fillet block, skinless, bonelessEuro/kg
€ 4.35
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
40-50 pc/lb
60-70
70-80US$/kg
Whiteleg shrimp - Penaeus vannameiHead-on, shell-on, origin: South America
US$ 3.90
US$ 4.15
US$ 4.90
Salmon - In Europe, origin: Norw ay
2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0
Jan-
04
Jun-
04
Nov
-04
Apr
-05
Sep
-05
Feb
-06
Jul-0
6
Dec
-06
May
-07
Oct
-07
Mar
-08
Aug
-08
Jan-
09
Jun-
09
Fresh, gutted, head-on, 3-5 kg/pcEuro/kg
€ 4.10
Alaska pollack In Germany, origin: Russian Federation/USA
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Jan-
04
Jun-
04
Nov
-04
Apr
-05
Sep
-05
Feb
-06
Jul-0
6
Dec
-06
May
-07
Oct
-07
Mar
-08
Aug
-08
Jan-
09
Jun-
09
Frozen - fillets, skinless, bonelessUS$/kg
US$ 3.70
![Page 32: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
The FAO Fish price index
![Page 33: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
FUTURE FISH PRICES ?
• DEMAND: slowly rising– because of population growth– small underlying increase in per kaput consumption
• SUPPLY– capture: stable, not increasing– aquaculture: increasing but declining growth
• PRICE IMPACT ?– most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much– price cycles in commodity markets– industry profitability through product development, technological
innovation and cost reduction
![Page 34: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34
TRADE CONTEXT
• 153 countries now in WTO– Russia is ready to join (?): 2010 ?– China joined 2001, Viet Nam in 2007
• WTO: RULES BASED SYSTEM– tariffs– market access (SPS/TBT): quality and safety now main issue in market access– dispute resolution
• Doha Round: 2001 - ?– market access (tariffs)– fisheries subsidies
• Regional and bilateral trade agreements– proliferation– regional trade areas, like EU. – many South American countries active in bilaterals
![Page 35: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
AQUACULTURE FUTURE
• fastest growing food producing sector in the world• accounts for almost 50% of the global food fish• 52 million tons of fish produced worth US$ 75
billion (2007)• Given the projected population growth, an
additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed by 2030 to maintain current per caput consumption.
![Page 36: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.019
70
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Per c
aput
sup
ply
(kg)
Fromcapturefisheries
Fromaquaculture
capture
aquaculture
2005 2015 2030
![Page 37: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37
CONCLUSIONS
• Fish has always been a globalised commodity– but of higher importance for developing countries than most other
commodities
• Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to aquaculture: 50% share in 2008 in food fish
• Fish trade is increasing: almost USD 100 billion in 2008 • Fish trade: big 3 import 71 % but in decline• Outsourcing of production and of processing• Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia• Future: India ?
![Page 38: 1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062715/56649db25503460f94aa1a1e/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38
THANK YOU