1

Energy Security and Sustainable Mobility: Possible?

Jatin NathwaniProfessor and Ontario Research Chair in Public Policy and Sustainable Energy Management

University of Waterloo

Presented at the“North America- 2030 An Environmental Outlook”Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC)

Conference hosted by Joint Public Advisory Committee of the CEC Ottawa, June 25th, 2008

Context

• Dependence on “liquid fuels” for transport• Risk to the global environment (climate

change)• Lack of access to modern energy services by

the world’s poor

Trends are relatively clear

Future as past?

Fuel Efficiency Standards: Can they deliver lower aggregate demand over the

long term?Total Final Energy Consumption in the transport sector (Mtoe)

Country 1995 2005 % ChangeAustralia 25.15 30.24 20.24Canada 48.8 56.93 16.66China 56.11 114.23 103.58EU 283.78 374.85 32.09France 46.73 51.96 11.19Italy 39.65 45.06 13.64Japan 90.35 93.74 3.75S.Korea 27.01 32.43 20.07Sweden 7.83 8.87 13.28UK 48.01 56.83 18.37United States 545.21 648.6 18.96

Year

Total Final Energy Consumption per capita in the transport sector (toe)

Country 1995 2005 % ChangeAustralia 1391.674 1486.743 6.83Canada 1665.41 1762.566 5.83China 46.22933 87.00064 88.19EU 595.5681 765.325 28.50France 807.859 853.5737 5.66Italy 697.5397 768.9777 10.24Japan 719.5176 733.7367 1.98S.Korea 598.9844 673.6871 12.47Sweden 887.0567 982.3284 10.74UK 827.4048 943.871 14.08United States2045.378 2184.279 6.79

Year

Low cost power to displace gasoline“green electrons as substitutes for carbon”

6

Diversity of Electricity Supply: Energy Security and Environmental Performance

Transport and Power

InfrastructureConvergence

7

• Sustainable development• Cleaner Air• Climate Change• Infrastructure Utilization• Economic Benefits

8

Reality Test?

Concluding Remarks

9

1. Historical trends away from consumption of primary fuels directly to electricity will continue

2. Pricing (or taxing) of carbon emissions will further strengthen the trend towards electrification

3. Efficiency improvements may not reduce demand or emissions

4. Convergence of the power and the transportation sectors is a promising link to enhanced energy security

10

For follow up and contact information:

Jatin Nathwani, PhD, P.Eng.Professor and Ontario Research Chair in Public Policy for Sustainable Energy ManagementFaculty of Engineering and Faculty of Environment200 University Avenue WestWaterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1

519 888 4567 ext 38252nathwani@uwaterloo.caAlso: Jatin.nathwani@rogers.comBlackberry: 416 735 6262