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Transcript of 1 An inventive commons: the invention of the airplane and its industry by Peter B. Meyer, U.S....
1
An inventive commons:the invention of the airplane and
its industryby Peter B. Meyer, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Findings and views are those of the author, not the BLS
Convening Cultural Commons conferenceSept 23, 2011
Fixed wing shapes
Wrights’ wind tunnel & wing models, 1902-3
Penaud, ~1872
Lilienthal 1870s-1880s
Cayley, 1799
Trying to make a mechanical bird
Mouillard 1881
Hargrave 1891 model ornithopterAder’s 1890 Eole Full size; wings
flap, powerful engine
Le Bris 1868 AlbatrossWas pulled by a horse; took off from the
cart.
4
Stacked wings
Chanute-Herring glider, 1896
Stringfellow 1868 triplane model
Phillips multiplane, 1904
Hargrave box kites 1893
6
Getting in the air: Otto Lilienthal1890s: Flew inspirational hang gliders – tried to control in air
“. . . to soar upward and to glide, free as the bird” -- Otto Lilienthal, 1889
7
Parallels to open source software
Autonomous innovators (not hierarchy, not cult)
with various goals: Want to fly! ; Hope for recognition; Curious, interested in the problem ; Bring peace / make nation safe
who share technical info with public
Authors, evangelists, organizers have valuable role To welcome future tinkerers who could generate progress To avoid duplicate efforts, thru standards and specialization
Relevant clubs and societies – new data coming
Key early societies in Paris (1864,1872), London (1866), Berlin (1881) then smaller/local
Key Exhibitions and Conferences: 1868, 1893, 1904, others
Focused on ballooning – “aerial navigation” builds on that infrastructure
Aeronautics-related clubs and societies
Brockett / Smithsonian Institution (1910) is aBibliography of Aeronautics
13,800 bibliography entries
large sample of data
Publications
Balloon, aerostat, dirigible, ZeppelinVoyage (ascent)
Bird (animal, fish, insect)
Scientific (research, theory, meteorology, upper atmosphere)
ExperimentMeasurement (duration, altitude,
temperature, weight)
Motor (engine, propulsion) Propellers Machine
Navigation (control, steerable)
WingsKite/glider (gliding, soaring)
Periodicals listed in
Brockett (1910)L'Aérophile, Paris, 1893- 1393Zeitschrift für Luftschiffahrt, Berlin/Vienna 1882- 1101Illustrierte Aëronautische Mitteilungen, Strasbourg 1065L'Aéronaute (Paris) 822Wiener Luftschiffer Zeitung (Vienna) 623Bollettino della Societa Aeronautica Italiana (Rome) 535Aeronautics (London, 1907-) 441Aëronautical Journal, (London, 1897-) 415Scientific American, (New York) 383La Conquête de l'Air (Brussels) 351
What did theytalk about?
There are many duplicates and reprints in the data; haven’t standardized this.
Many of these articles are online
Wilbur Wright’s very first letter to Chanute in 1900 says “the apparatus I intend to employ . . . is very similar to [your] "double-deck" machine [of] 1896-7 . . . ” (. . . with these changes)
Chanute’s replies: “I believe like yourself that no financial profit is to be expected from such investigations for a long while to come.”
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Successful examples were copies
Chanute-Herring glider - 1896 Wright brothers 1900 kite, 1901-2 glider
Ferber, 1902, copies Wrights based on report from Chanute
Pratt truss
Was it an information commons?Yes
Designs were copied Publications copied Tinkerers in contact
Standards did arise Rivalry was secondary
No No sharp boundary (of common resource)
Usual commons issues are minor congestion, free riding, conflict, overuse,
pollution (Hess and Ostrom intro, 2006)
No global formal rules Many clubs or journals had rules No strong collective action; little
governance, sanctions, monitoring. “Soft law” / context
Note relevance of: uncertainty; opportunism; support
1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910
Wrights to Chanute 7 28 29 22 24 24 33 16 7 3 4
Chanute to Wrights 5 30 34 25 29 37 37 19 9 4 2
Transition conflict, and paradigm shift
Octave Chanute:
A commons personWright brothers
It’s industry time
Letters and telegrams between Octave Chanute and the Wright brothers
Startup industryIn 1907-1909• Publications skyrocket• Patent counts probably do too, 1907• Big public demonstrations, 1908-1909
• Even bigger prizes than before, tens of thousands of viewers• Legitimate to start firm (Hannan, Carroll et al 1995)
• Flow of new firms appears: 1908
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916
Num
ber o
f ent
rant
s
Number of entrant firms by year of first investment(Sources: Gunston 1993 and 2005; Smithsonian Directory)
Britain
France
Germany
US
Italy
Russia
Austria-Hungary
All others
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
01
02
03
04
05
06
0
Year
Co
un
t of P
ub
lica
tion
s
Aeronautically-relevant patents by country1850-1909
BritainGermanyFranceUS
We have useful micro models of agents: Firms, investors, employees, R&D, households, consumers, governments, bureaucrats, principal-agent, managers, employees, families, etc.
But these characters didn’t bring us the airplane.
Need models of self-motivated non-profit “tinkerers” (scientists) who sometimes generate these behaviors:
• Offering information to commons• Sometimes avoiding intellectual property institutions
• Standardizing technology, modularizing, specializing• Evangelizing the field and technology
Relevant models/phrasings: user innovation, distributed innovation, collective invention, peer production, open source innovation
If goal is to change the world, open-source behavior can be “rational” (Meyer 2007)
Microeconomics issue
Conclusions so far
Overhang of technological uncertainty is extreme No firms do this “research” (hopeless, useless, dangerous)
Independent tinkerers link up network/commons progress Clubs, publications, visits, letters Lead to standard info/platform in mid 1890s They copy previous work
relevant to open source software and other cases Their motivation is mostly intrinsic or altruistic
To fly! To change the world so others can fly; or, the challenge
Entrepreneurial people and era was very different The experts of 1899 did not become industrialists ten years later
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Motivations of experimenters
Why do this?
Would like to fly Curiosity, interest in the problem Prestige, recognition Belief in making world a better place Make one nation safer Nobody refers to expected profits
“. . . A desire takes possession of man. He longs to soar upward and to glide, free as the bird . . .” -- Otto Lilienthal 1889
“The glory of a great discovery or an invention which is destined to benefit humanity [seemed] dazzling. . . . Enthusiasm seized [us] at an early age.”
- Gustav Lilienthal
Can measure participation of people and institutions• Publications in bibliography• Patents• References in combined index from historical books (ex post)• References in Chanute’s book• References in letters (Wrights and Chanute)• Participation in startup firms
Can see what is happening in a commons
And infer what experiences, motivations, and institutions set up an airplane industry
Future work: More evidence
19
Communication institutions referred to in histories
pagereferences
distinctinstances
Clubs, society, or association 219 37
Journals, periodicals, newspapers, or magazines, 131 39
Company 75 35
Exhibition, prize, trophy, award, contest, medal, or meet 67 18
book (fact or fiction) 47 21
university or school 46 19
lab, museum, institute, observatory, zoo, or fund 46 16
military institution 45 7
conference 14 2
These rough counts come from 12 combined historical book indexes about the invention of the airplane, and exclude references to events after 1909.
These institutions serve technical communication. There was much free revealing of tech.
20
Development of the airplane
(heavier than air, with fixed wings)1800 Fixed-wing airplane concept/designs of George Cayley1860s and on French and British clubs and journals start up It’s a niche activity – maybe hopeless, useless, and/or dangerous Publications on this topic do not refer much to prior work
1890s Public glider flights of Otto Lilienthal1894 Book by Octave Chanute surveys issues and experiments Publications then refer more often to prior work.
Many designs were shared and copied. “open source innovation”Many “firsts.”
1903 Wright brothers’ key powered-glider flight, 1906 patent1908-9 Public demonstrations of modern airplanes; an industry
arises
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Chanute’s 1894 overview Progress in Flying Machines refers to or quotes more than
190 personsThese are counts of pages referring to
the individual.
The people are diverse and international.
Later technological histories treat these people as central.
Their findings were mostly public.
Experimenterlocation
(background)
Pages referring to,
Chanute (1894)
Publications listed,
Brockett (1910)
Maxim Britain (US) 33 25+
Lilienthal Germany 31 50+
Pénaud France 22 12
MouillardAlgeria, Egypt
(Fr)21 6
Hargrave Australia (Br) 19 25+
Moy Britain 19 10
Le Bris France 17 0
Langley US 16 40+
Wenham Britain 15 10+
Phillips Britain 14 3
Chanute US (France) * 50+
22
Communication by letters and visits between experimenters
Source: McFarland (1953)
Chanute visited with Mouillard, Langley, Santos-Dumont, Ferber, Huffaker, Herring, Maxim
He hosted an international conference on “aerial navigation” in 1893.
He corresponded with Hargrave, Mouillard, Montgomery, Cabot, Zahm, Kress, Wenham, Moy, Pilcher, Means, the Lilienthals, the Wrights, and others.
Chanute exchanged at least 29 letters with Lawrence Hargrave and 26 with Francis Wenham. (Short, forthcoming)
The Lilienthal brothers exchanged at least 12 letters with Chanute and dozens with other experimenters up to 1896. (Schwipps book) Had visits from many.
1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910
Wrights to Chanute 7 28 29 22 24 24 33 16 7 3 4
Chanute to Wrights 5 30 34 25 29 37 37 19 9 4 2
Letters and telegrams between Octave Chanute and the Wright brothers
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Wright brothers as open-sourcers 1900-1902First letter to Chanute, May 13, 1900: “Assuming then that Lilienthal was correct . . .”
[Wilbur explains what he will do differently.]
“. . . . my object is to learn to what extent similar plans have been tested and found to be failures, and also to obtain such suggestions as your great knowledge and experience might enable you to give me. I make no secret of my plans for the reason that I believe no financial profit will accrue to the inventor of the first flying machine, and that only those who are willing to give as well as to receive suggestions can hope to link their names with the honor of its discovery. The problem is too great for one man alone and unaided to solve in secret.”
“the apparatus I intend to employ . . . is very similar to the "double-deck" machine with which the experiments of yourself and Mr. Herring were conducted in 1896-7.”
Chanute’s reply May 17, 1900: “I believe like yourself that no financial profit is to be expected from such investigations for a long while to come.”
Wrights’ 1900 glider
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1910 Bibliography of Aeronautics Brockett/Smithsonian
InstitutionSmithsonian expanded director Langley’s collection
Bibliography has over 13,400 items, listed on 940 pages.
• It was scanned, digitized and made public online• Archive.org ; also credits to Cornell Univ library, U of Michigan library,
and Carnegie-Mellon (posner.cmu.edu)• with many scanning/OCR errors. I’m fixing those and making a database.
For most publications we have authors, date, language of the title, location of publication.
• Work continues
Chanute’s 1894 book and this 1910 book are my major sources here.
25
Did experimenters copy earlier designs?This is key to the “open source process” idea.
Yes, they copied.
A tail on an aircraft was sometimes called the “Penaud tail” for Alphonse Penaud’s models of
the early 1870s.A tail can help with stability and control.
Long thin fixed wings were found to give more lift than square or round wings. These are imitated,
e.g. from Wenham’s 1871 wind tunnel experiments
Stacked wings draw from particular designs:Wenham, 1866 ; Stringfellow, 1868 ; and box kite
experiments of Hargrave, 1890s. That leads to the biplane structure.
Hargrave box kite, 1890s
Penaud model, circa 1872
Cayley, 1799 – got much right but not wing shape
26
(1) R&D: investments which expect financial payback on average
(2) Race to be first (space race; genome project)(3) Collective invention (Allen, 1983)
but those are (a) firms, (b) not paying costs to experiment
(4) To earn income or wealth indirectly Start company, or license patented invention signal to employers; get hired as engineer (Lerner and Tirole,
2002)
These do not apply well to airplane invention
We need a model of “tinkerers”(5) Network: a population of agents with interest in a problem (a0),
worthwhile opportunities (p), information flows between them (f) experimentation and socially constructed “progress”No pool of information, or incentive structure, or technical measure of
improvement.
Alternative models of invention
Chuhachi Ninomiya
Loved kites ; studied birds and flying insects
Made model glider in 1891-94 and 1898-1908 in Japan
Tried to fund the building of a larger craft
Not clear to me what he knew of the Western literature / progress
Not mentioned in my other sources
“Beetle” and “Crow” models, c.1893?
Richard Pearse
Farmer near Timaru, New Zealand Flew a powered glider in 1903
Bamboo structure; ailerons Made internal combustion engines Alone!
He’d read some of the literature Is not mentioned in biblio
29
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
05
00
10
00
15
00
Year
Co
un
t of p
ub
lica
tion
s in
Bro
cke
tt (1
91
0)
Jump in publications in early industry period Location of
publisher # publications
Paris 4303
Berlin 1718
London 1342
New York 1154
Wien 866
Strasbourg 859
Roma 573
Bruxelles 391
Glenville, Ohio 295
Washington DC 228
Nova Scotia 248
St Louis 160
Milano 156
Philadelphia 117
St Petersbourg 101
Boston 100
Stuttgart 49
Hamburg 21
Perhaps 5000-6000 are in French3000-5000 in English
2500+ in German
Many refer to balloons, dirigeables, etcCan categorize by topic/title in future
New firms: preliminary findings
Few of the founders, investors, designers in the 1908-1916 firms were experts/experimenters of the 1890s. Maybe this is how open-source technologies are usually
commercialized – by a new or different group Change from technological uncertainty to feasible/investable tech Are the authors of technical works different? Don’t know yet.
Many founders had experience in manufacturing Unlike the Wrights
New firms spin off rapidly from earliest firms Klepper (2009): corporate-genealogies in Detroit and Silicon Valley
show very high local rates of spinoff; that’s how these places became central to cars and semiconductors
31
Microeconomic model (Meyer, 2007)
Imagine self-motivated tinkerers making progress on some project They invest time, effort, money into experiments
Let two tinkerers’ experiments add value to one another’s projectsSay they are not in competition because they cannot foresee a
marketable product for now high “technological uncertainty”)
They’d agree to share findings with one another They’d specialize to avoid duplication They’d standardize on modular designs and tools
(Market processes are not necessary for these effects) They don’t bother with intellectual property (there’s no gain) There is a role for an author / organizer / evangelist to expand the network and reduce duplicative efforts. A tinkerer might change if the technological uncertainty lifts
32
Role for author / moderator / evangelist
Chanute corresponded with, visited, introduced experimenters, and published book
In model: A tinkerer’s best opportunity for progress may be editing, writing, speeches, evangelism
authors/evangelists are another kind of specialist tinkerer Octave Chanute, 1894: “The writer’s object in preparing these articles was threefold:
1. To satisfy himself whether . . . men might reasonably hope eventually to fly . . .
2. To save . . . effort on the part of experimenters trying again devices which have already failed.
3. To . . . render it less chimerical . . . to experiment with a flying machine . . . .”
Analogously: Lilienthal’s public demonstrations; Felsenstein at Homebrew; open source programmers Stallman, Torvalds, etc.
33
Wright methods and inventions
Wind tunnel with smooth air flow Tested many wings systematically
Propeller invention: shaped like wings, with lift going forward This produces ~40% more pulling power . This design idea lasts to the present.
They are skilled, precision-minded toolsmiths, in a workshop every day.
They flew craft as kites and gliders both, many times No landing gear, no engine. Their piloting invention had to be learned, like on bicycle
34
1903-6 Wrights exit open-source “network”
1899-1902: Wrights read everything they can, experiment with kites and gliders, visit, correspond, attend conferences, speak, publish.
Late 1902: they become more secretive, apparently because of wing design success
1903: They filed for a patent on their control mechanism for the wings.Granted 1906.Then they started companies.
Their secrecy and tight hold on patent rights lead to permanent conflicts with Chanute, Curtiss, and others.
Wrights’ first powered, controlled fixed-wing flight
Dec, 1903
References in histories books
Last name First name Page references
Wright Wilbur and Orville *
Chanute Octave 215
Lilienthal Otto 167
Blériot Louis 144
Langley Samuel 135
Curtiss Glenn 131
Stringfellow John 117
Cayley George 100
Voisin Gabriel 80
Smithsonian Institution 80
Herring Augustus 76
Patents 65
Manly Charles 62
Bell Alexander Graham 61
Zahm Albert 60
Penaud Alphonse 53
Ader Clément 50
Maxim Hiram 49
Means James 44
Brearey Frederick W. 44
Wenham Francis Herbert 41
Hargrave Lawrence 39
Mouillard Louis 36
These are coherent narratives with a variety of points of view.
Sources: cross-national; in paper – 15 books so far. Not enough yet.
Combining them all one should get a list of “everyone” who is important in this invention.
Frequency of mention is a very rough measure of importance, ex post.
Have not adjusted for nationality/language of author and publication.
Have not excluded very well events after 1909.
Have not counted “brothers” well.
Issues of interest
What institutions support the activities that leads to the invention/industry? (taking its importance as known)
Do the experimenters show “open source” behavior?
What does the transition to industry look like?
Methods question: How can we use a bibliography and historical narratives written after the fact to tell a unified quantitative story of innovation?
I am developing databases of bibliographies of aeronautical publications and clubs patents from the 1860s to 1910 startup firms and their key people (founders, investors, designers) combined indexes from historical books about the airplane’s invention
37
Imitation: Wright brothers copy Chanute’s design, 1900
Wilbur and Orville Wright ran a bicycle shop.
They read up on gliders and experiment with kites and gliders. Motivation: “I am an enthusiast . . . I wish to . . . help on the
future worker who will attain final success." -- Wilbur Wright, 1899, in letter to Smithsonian
Wilbur writes Chanute, 1900: “I make no secret of my plans [because] I believe no financial profit will accrue to the inventor of the first flying machine, and that only those who are willing to give as well as to receive suggestions can hope to link their names with the honor of its discovery. The problem is too great for one man alone and unaided to solve in secret . . . The apparatus I intend to employ . . . is very similar to [yours].”
Chanute reports on Wrights’ design to others and it is copied in 1902 – before they are famous! (Details Gibbs-Smith 1966)