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K Downgrades to global GDP growth feed through to downgrades in world direct Travel & Tourism GDP growth

K On average 2016-2020, the size of downgrade to both is roughly the same (0.3pp)

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K Consistent with the theme from the 2016 annual update, emerging regions, particularly in Asia, top the regional growth table for direct Travel & Tourism GDP growth according to the July 2016 updated forecasts . More advanced world regions including Europe, North America and Oceania are forecast to register modest growth to 2020.

K Against a backdrop of macroeconomic weakness in Brazil, and despite the Olympics in Rio, Latin America is expected to be the worst performing region in 2016 for direct Travel & Tourism GDP growth, and indeed the only region to register negative growth for the year. Although across the continent there is expected to be a mixed performance with some better performers including Chile, Colombia and Peru.

K The fastest growing world region in 2016, 2017 and 2016-20 will be South Asia, led by strong growth in India, whose economy is expected to out-perform China.

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K In 2016 according to the July 2016 updated forecasts, the only major Travel & Tourism economies expected to experience negative growth in direct Travel & Tourism GDP are Brazil, Russia and Turkey. In the cases of Russia and Brazil, poor performance is related to weak macroeconomic performance. Turkey’s poor performance is linked to a downgrade in its visitor exports growth following the spate of terror attacks, failed coup and proximity to the Syrian conflict.

K In 2016, 2017 and 2016-20, India is forecast to be the fastest growing Travel & Tourism economy, closely followed by Vietnam, China and Indonesia, as the fast growing Asian economies continue to dominate the league tables.

K Direct Travel & Tourism GDP growth prospects remain robust in the world’s major advanced economies, including the US, UK, France, Spain and Italy, with annual average growth in the 2.5-3.0% range between 2016 and 2020.

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K UK direct Travel & Tourism GDP growth is expected to hold up well in 2016 and 2017, with growth rates similar to the annual update forecasts at the start of the year. Weaker domestic Travel & Tourism spending growth (despite weaker outbound spending growth) will be offset by stronger international inbound leisure spending as a consequence of the enhanced affordability of the UK as a tourism destination due to the depreciation of sterling.

K However, in the 2018-2020 period, direct T&T GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded by approximately 1pp per annum after the UK leaves the EU and the boost from the weaker sterling wears off.

K We expect an initial boost to total leisure spending in 2017 thanks to a rise in inbound leisure spending (linked to the weaker £) more than offsetting weaker domestic leisure spending (from weaker UK consumer spending). But this effect wears off and total leisure spending grows slower in the 2018-2020 period as compared to the annual update forecasts.

K Total business spending growth is weaker in each year from 2016-2020, linked to weaker domestic business and weaker inbound business (linked to the Brexit effect on economy investment which historically has linked to business travel).

K By 2020, visitor exports and inbound arrivals are still higher than under the annual update forecasts, but domestic spending, outbound spending and arrivals and investment are all lower.

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K In line with the updated direct Travel & Tourism GDP forecast, UK direct Travel & Tourism employment is expected to hold up well and remain resilient in 2016 and 2017, with growth rates similar to the annual update forecasts earlier in the year. However, in the 2018-20 period, the direct Travel & Tourism employment forecasts have been downgraded by approximately 1pp per annum as the initial boost from the weaker sterling wears off. Overall, by 2020 we now expect that the UK Travel & Tourism sector will support 1.88m direct jobs, which is approximately 75,000 jobs less than forecast in the annual update at the start of the year.

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Given Sterling’s weakness and weaker UK macro consumer spending, we predict a much weaker outlook for UK outbound departures. Given the reliance of the above markets on visitors from the UK, we expect these markets to be amongst the most negatively impacted in 2017 by Brexit and the decline in UK outbound travel. Although it should be noted the pp difference figures in visitor exports growth for these markets will also be explained by factors other than Brexit (such as domestic macroeconomic conditions and exchange rates in each destination’s other important source markets), but Brexit will be an important factor.

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