Why People vote

Suffering through Suffrage

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives

• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 and 2010 Election.

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Why Americans Don’t Vote

• Institutional Factors

• Demographic Factors

• Behavioral Factors

Registration

• Registration is a large restriction on voting

• States control this power

• Once you register, you are more likely to vote

Other Institutional Barriers

• Restrictions on suffrage

• Electoral Competition

Why People Don’t Vote

Demographics

Low turnout because of partisanship

• Fewer People Identify with one of the parties

• Increasingly difficult to target voters

• Partisan districts depress turnout

Mobilization and turnout

• Voter Contacts and support

• The Long Campaign in 2008 advantaged Obama.

Campaign Contact

HIGH AND LOW STIMULUS ELECTIONS

The Saw-tooth Pattern

Presidential elections

• Why Higher

• What is the Result- the exciting saw-tooth pattern

Midyear Tends to be boring

THE RATIONAL VOTER MODELShould We Vote?

Normative Democratic Theory

• The Classical View of Voting

• How We should Participate

Rational Choice Theory of Voting

• When Should We Vote?

• Who should We Vote For?

The Purpose of an Election is Simple

• A mandate for the incumbent to continue their policies

or• A call for the opposition

to Change things

Our Choices are Simple

1. Abstain

2. Vote for Our Favorite Party

3. Vote for Some other Party Because our Favorite Party has no Chance

4. Vote For a Party at Random

WHY WE ABSTAINStay at home

Rational Abstention

• The Costs of Voting versus the benefits of voting

• The costs often outweigh the benefits

• The Result is many eligible citizens never vote (rational abstention)

Why Abstainers are important

• Parties have no idea who is going to abstain

• Parties cannot ignore these people

• There are enough of these people to shift the electoral balance

• Their abstention often does not harm them

The Problems of Abstaining

• Democracy Cannot Exist

• The costs of democracy are too high

• The benefits are too low.

SHOULD I VOTE OR ABSTAIN?

The Rational Voting Calculus

• C= Cost of participation• B= Benefit of voting (Vote Value)• P= Probability that your vote matters • D= The civic duty term

C> PB +D We Stay At HomeC< PB +D We Vote

The Costs of Voting

• When Voting is Costless, everyone should vote

• When voting is costly, more people do not turnout

Information Costs

• The costs of becoming an informed voter

• Learning who is running

• Understanding the Differences between candidates

• Information costs are especially high

Time Costs

• Registration

• Travel

• The vote itself

• Ways that we have reduced these over time?

The Monetary Costs of Voting

• Poll Taxes- Not any more

• Costs of not working

• Opportunity Costs

The Impact of High Cost is Low Turnout

• Not all costs are born equally

• Those who vote less have less political power

• This prevents people from making the “wrong Decision”

High Costs can deter voters, even if they have a preference