STEPHEN P. MULLIN, ECONSULT SOLUTIONSJanuary 14, 2016

What’s in Store for the Philadelphia Regional Economy in 2016?

Philadelphia Regional Economy

Philadelphia Regional Economy

1.Will our region do better than it has in the past relative to the U.S. economy?

2.Which parts of our region will show stronger growth?

3.Demographic and economic trends.4.Which sectors will lead and which will lag?5.State/ Local Government

U.S. GDP Forecasts for 2016

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

 

Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month)

Previous New Previous New Previous New

Quarterly data:

2015:Q4 2.8 2.6 5.1 5 220.4 201.5

2016:Q1 2.8 2.5 5.1 4.9 185.1 188.2

2016:Q2 2.8 2.6 5 4.8 191.3 193.5

2016:Q3 2.7 2.9 4.9 4.8 189.5 192

2016:Q4 N.A. 2.4 N.A. 4.7 N.A. 181.2

Source: FRB Philadelphia

Regional Population Trends

Source: Newgeography.com

Population

Source: Chestnuthilllocal.com

PopulationPhiladelphia County Population Change by Race and Ethnicity 1990 to 2012

PopulationPhiladelphia County Change in Immigrant Population 2000 to 2012

POPULATION: MILLENNIAL SHARE

Regional Employment Trends

Regional Employment Trends

Philadelphia Metro Unemployment Rates

Unemployment rates for counties in the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. Metropolitan Statistical Area, not seasonally adjusted, September 2015

Regional Outlook

Markets Residential Institutional Commercial Retail Entertainment/ Hospitality Commercial Office Industrial/Distribution

Influencers/Issues Demographic Changes Energy Costs Tax/ Regulatory Reform Labor Costs/ Productivity K-12 Education / Budget Public Infrastructure Investment

and Quality, including Transportation 21st Century investments

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTER CITY

Residential Developments

REGIONAL MULTIFAMILY MARKET

Regional Office Market

Source: JLL Research

Greater Philadelphia Office, Q4 2015

Source: CBRE

Philly’s Hotel Boom

State and Local Government Roles

Spending (education and pensions)

Taxation

Regulation

Infrastructure Investment

Conclusion

1. Things to Watch.

2. Potential Headwinds.

3. Bold Forecasts.

Thank you!

Stephen P. MullinMullin@econsultsolutions.com 215-717-2777