What's in Store for the Philadelphia Regional Economy in 2016
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STEPHEN P. MULLIN, ECONSULT SOLUTIONS January 14, 2016 What’s in Store for the Philadelphia Regional Economy in 2016?
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Transcript of What's in Store for the Philadelphia Regional Economy in 2016
STEPHEN P. MULLIN, ECONSULT SOLUTIONSJanuary 14, 2016
What’s in Store for the Philadelphia Regional Economy in 2016?
Philadelphia Regional Economy
Philadelphia Regional Economy
1.Will our region do better than it has in the past relative to the U.S. economy?
2.Which parts of our region will show stronger growth?
3.Demographic and economic trends.4.Which sectors will lead and which will lag?5.State/ Local Government
U.S. GDP Forecasts for 2016
Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys
Real GDP (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Payrolls (000s/month)
Previous New Previous New Previous New
Quarterly data:
2015:Q4 2.8 2.6 5.1 5 220.4 201.5
2016:Q1 2.8 2.5 5.1 4.9 185.1 188.2
2016:Q2 2.8 2.6 5 4.8 191.3 193.5
2016:Q3 2.7 2.9 4.9 4.8 189.5 192
2016:Q4 N.A. 2.4 N.A. 4.7 N.A. 181.2
Source: FRB Philadelphia
Regional Population Trends
Source: Newgeography.com
Population
Source: Chestnuthilllocal.com
PopulationPhiladelphia County Population Change by Race and Ethnicity 1990 to 2012
PopulationPhiladelphia County Change in Immigrant Population 2000 to 2012
POPULATION: MILLENNIAL SHARE
Regional Employment Trends
Regional Employment Trends
Philadelphia Metro Unemployment Rates
Unemployment rates for counties in the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. Metropolitan Statistical Area, not seasonally adjusted, September 2015
Regional Outlook
Markets Residential Institutional Commercial Retail Entertainment/ Hospitality Commercial Office Industrial/Distribution
Influencers/Issues Demographic Changes Energy Costs Tax/ Regulatory Reform Labor Costs/ Productivity K-12 Education / Budget Public Infrastructure Investment
and Quality, including Transportation 21st Century investments
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTER CITY
Residential Developments
REGIONAL MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Regional Office Market
Source: JLL Research
Greater Philadelphia Office, Q4 2015
Source: CBRE
Philly’s Hotel Boom
State and Local Government Roles
Spending (education and pensions)
Taxation
Regulation
Infrastructure Investment
Conclusion
1. Things to Watch.
2. Potential Headwinds.
3. Bold Forecasts.
