What Happened

The Election of 2010

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2010 Election.

• Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.

2010 PART 2What comes around, goes around?

The House Results

• GOP Gets– 100% of leaning GOP

Seats (29)– 30 of 42 Tossups– 6 “safe/leaning”

Democratic seats

The Senate Results

• No Decapitation of Reid

• No Biden Seat

• The Democrats Hold

Homeostasis

• Government tends to disappoint

• We move back to correct parties that go too far

• Exposure

The Nationalized Election

• National factors trumped local factors for the third time

• This time around, these factors favored the GOP

• This Hurts Incumbents

Issues and 2010

The Most Important Issue of 2008

• Obama misread the 2008 electorate

• The Most important issue of 2008 went unresolved

The Issues of 2010

THE ECONOMYThe Primary Issue

A Referendum on the Economy

Unemployment

Who is to Blame?

DEBT AND STIMULUS

The National Debt on Election Day 2008

The National Debt on 11/2/2010

Budget Deficits and Record Spending

• 2009 Budget Deficit was over 1.4 Trillion

• 2010 at 1.3 Trillion

Voters wanted deficit reduction

The Stimulus Package

• Success– Potentially Staved off a

second depression

• Problems– High Price Tag– Did not meet

expectations

Voters are Split on its Effectiveness

THE HEALTH CARE LAW

Opinion Remains Divided

A REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT OBAMA

The Man and His Policies

President Obama’s Popularity

On Election Day: A Referendum

On Election Day: The Policy Dichotomy

THE TEA PARTYThe X factor in 2010

The Tea Party Movement• Unique in that they

do not want anything from government

• Also no Formal/ Hierarchical organization

• Very Motivated

The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government

The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters

The Tea party was a Popular Movement

With Motivated Voters on Election Day

THE SENATEThe Results

Policy

2010-2012

Senate Gridlock is Likely • Fillibusters from the

Minority Party

• Unwillingness to pass House bills from the Majority Party.

• A lack of moderates to broker deals

Policy In the House• The GOP has majority,

but it will not be easy– Integrating the Tea Party

– Facing an ideologically homogenous Democratic Party

What Not To Expect

• Climate Change Legislation

• Comprehensive Immigration Reform

What Not To Expect: Social Security Reform

• The Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2037

• Benefits will be cut by 22% at that time

REPEALING HEALTH CARENot Going to Happen Through Congress

“We will immediately take action to repeal this law.”

Republican “Pledge To America”

H.R. 2: Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act

S.AMDT 13

The Electoral College

(Obama won)

The Nature and legitimacy of the Campaign

• A relatively mild campaign

• An election without a question of legitimacy

The Electoral College Results

• The National Popular vote remains irrelevant

• 270 Electoral Votes remains the Goal

The Final Tally

The Electoral College

• 51 separate elections

• Article II, Section I allows the states to decide how they choose their electors

• How the states decide

Campaign Strategy under the Electoral College

• Race for Electoral Votes

• Not a race for Popular votes

• Draw the map and stick to it

Resource Allocation

• Time and Money are best spent where they will give you a R.O.I.

• Many states do not see the candidates

• Fewer than 20 states in any given election

The minimum winning coalition

• 270 is all that is necessary– 11 states can give you 271– This puts the emphasis on big states

• Can you win or will you win?

• Remember opportunity costs regarding $ and time.

The Basic Strategy

• Win your state and Your v-p’s state

• Do not spend time where you will win

• Do not spend time where you will lose

• Electoral Votes, matter nothing else does

Geography and the Electoral College

• Democrats keep their safe areas

• Democrats Make In-Roads into Republican Territory

• Republicans hold-on, barely

Regional Changes

• The Battle For the South

• New England becomes more solidly democratic

• The Mountain West

Voter Turnout

California

• The Electoral College Crown

• Democrats Cannot win without it

• Population is flatlining