So what happened to the electoral system in 2010? John Curtice Strathclyde University.
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Transcript of So what happened to the electoral system in 2010? John Curtice Strathclyde University.
![Page 1: So what happened to the electoral system in 2010? John Curtice Strathclyde University.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070305/551509fe550346a87d8b478c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
So what happened to the electoral system in 2010?
John CurticeStrathclyde University
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The (principal) case for FPP
• Provides for a system of alternating single party majority government
• That means that governments are clearly held accountable
• And that they are made and unmade by voters rather than via back room deals.
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How FPP is supposed to deliver
• Discourages people from voting for third parties
• Does not give third parties seats• Gives the winner a clear ‘bonus’…• …irrespective of who that winner is
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Rise and Fall of the Two-Party Vote
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The Rise of ‘Others’
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The LD Vote – a little less even
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All Third Party Seats
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How FPP delivers a winner’s bonus
• Plenty of seats are competitive between Conservative and Labour.
• So if there is a small ‘swing’ from one to the other, lots of seats change hands.
• So even if the largest party only has a small lead in votes over the second party, it still secures an overall majority.
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The Decline in Marginal Seats
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Long-Term Variation in ‘Swing’
South Midlands North Scotland Wales
1955-87 +8.9 +5.9 -8.6 -19.1 +0.6
1987-97 -2.6 -2.3 +1.9 +7.4 +2.0
1997-2005
+1.1 +1.1 -0.9 -4.7 +1.5
2005-10 +0.6 +2.1 -0.4 -7.6 +0.7
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Potential Sources of Bias
• Unevenly sized constituencies– Differences in electorate size– Differences in turnout– (Differences in third party vote)
• More efficiently distributed vote– Win more seats by small majorities– (Waste more votes in third party seats)
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Trends in Overall Bias
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The Anti-Tory Bias
Con Lab
Electorate 72,345 68,612
Turnout 68.4 61.1
=> Voters 49,436 41,842
Small Majorities 60 81
Vote in Third Party Seats
28.4 16.6
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How The System Now (Doesn’t) Work
Con % Lead (GB)
Con Lab LD Others
-2.7 239 326 59 26
0.0 255 306 61 28
4.1 282 281 59 28
7.3 307 258 57 28
11.2 327 233 62 28
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How FPP no longer ‘works’
• No longer stops voters from supporting third parties
• Has become less effective at denying third parties representation
• Has become less effective at giving the winning party a ‘bonus’
• Is no longer even-handed in its treatment of the two largest parties
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The Implications of the Constituencies Bill
• Will reduce but not eliminate the anti-Con bias– Boundaries will still be nearly 5 years out of date– Will not affect other sources of bias
• Unlikely significantly to change the range of results that produce a hung parliament
• Reduces accountability of MPs to constituents?