What Happened The Election of 2010. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Identify and describe the...
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Transcript of What Happened The Election of 2010. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Identify and describe the...
What Happened
The Election of 2010
Clearly Stated Learning Objectives
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2010 Election.
• Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.
2010 PART 2What comes around, goes around?
The House Results
• GOP Gets– 100% of leaning GOP
Seats (29)– 30 of 42 Tossups– 6 “safe/leaning”
Democratic seats
The Senate Results
• No Decapitation of Reid
• No Biden Seat
• The Democrats Hold
Homeostasis
• Government tends to disappoint
• We move back to correct parties that go too far
• Exposure
The Nationalized Election
• National factors trumped local factors for the third time
• This time around, these factors favored the GOP
• This Hurts Incumbents
Issues and 2010
The Most Important Issue of 2008
• Obama misread the 2008 electorate
• The Most important issue of 2008 went unresolved
The Issues of 2010
THE ECONOMYThe Primary Issue
A Referendum on the Economy
Unemployment
Who is to Blame?
DEBT AND STIMULUS
The National Debt on Election Day 2008
The National Debt on 11/2/2010
Budget Deficits and Record Spending
• 2009 Budget Deficit was over 1.4 Trillion
• 2010 at 1.3 Trillion
Voters wanted deficit reduction
The Stimulus Package
• Success– Potentially Staved off a
second depression
• Problems– High Price Tag– Did not meet
expectations
Voters are Split on its Effectiveness
THE HEALTH CARE LAW
Opinion Remains Divided
A REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT OBAMA
The Man and His Policies
President Obama’s Popularity
On Election Day: A Referendum
On Election Day: The Policy Dichotomy
THE TEA PARTYThe X factor in 2010
The Tea Party Movement• Unique in that they
do not want anything from government
• Also no Formal/ Hierarchical organization
• Very Motivated
The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government
The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters
The Tea party was a Popular Movement
With Motivated Voters on Election Day
THE SENATEThe Results
Policy
2010-2012
Senate Gridlock is Likely • Fillibusters from the
Minority Party
• Unwillingness to pass House bills from the Majority Party.
• A lack of moderates to broker deals
Policy In the House• The GOP has majority,
but it will not be easy– Integrating the Tea Party
– Facing an ideologically homogenous Democratic Party
What Not To Expect
• Climate Change Legislation
• Comprehensive Immigration Reform
What Not To Expect: Social Security Reform
• The Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2037
• Benefits will be cut by 22% at that time
REPEALING HEALTH CARENot Going to Happen Through Congress
“We will immediately take action to repeal this law.”
Republican “Pledge To America”
H.R. 2: Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act
S.AMDT 13
The Electoral College
(Obama won)
The Nature and legitimacy of the Campaign
• A relatively mild campaign
• An election without a question of legitimacy
The Electoral College Results
• The National Popular vote remains irrelevant
• 270 Electoral Votes remains the Goal
The Final Tally
The Electoral College
• 51 separate elections
• Article II, Section I allows the states to decide how they choose their electors
• How the states decide
Campaign Strategy under the Electoral College
• Race for Electoral Votes
• Not a race for Popular votes
• Draw the map and stick to it
Resource Allocation
• Time and Money are best spent where they will give you a R.O.I.
• Many states do not see the candidates
• Fewer than 20 states in any given election
The minimum winning coalition
• 270 is all that is necessary– 11 states can give you 271– This puts the emphasis on big states
• Can you win or will you win?
• Remember opportunity costs regarding $ and time.
The Basic Strategy
• Win your state and Your v-p’s state
• Do not spend time where you will win
• Do not spend time where you will lose
• Electoral Votes, matter nothing else does
Geography and the Electoral College
• Democrats keep their safe areas
• Democrats Make In-Roads into Republican Territory
• Republicans hold-on, barely
Regional Changes
• The Battle For the South
• New England becomes more solidly democratic
• The Mountain West
Voter Turnout
California
• The Electoral College Crown
• Democrats Cannot win without it
• Population is flatlining