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Local Leadership in an Age of Climate Change
Tough Choices: What Can Menlo Park Do About Climate Change?
Presentation to the
Menlo Park Rotary
Elton B. Sherwin
July 21, 2010
Agenda
The problem
What cities can do
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4
Muir & Riggs
Glaciers Alaska
We Are Leaving
Our Children a
Different Planet
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The North Pole is Disappearing
North Pole
NASA
Missing Ice
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Greenland is Melting
Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
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What is Going on?
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We Are Burning Too Much Stuff
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Why Does it Matter?
Graphic from www.solcomhouse.com
Greenhouse Effect
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CO2
Tasteless
Odorless
Non toxic
Invisible (lets visible light through)
Traps Infrared Heat
Lasts for Many Decades
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CO2 is the
Byproduct of the Combustion
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CO2
Simple Greenhouse Effect
Graphic modified from www.stopglobalwarming.com.au
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Some CO2 is Good
CO2
Graphic modified from www.stopglobalwarming.com.au
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Double CO2 from 1800’s
Will Not Be Good
0 2 4 6 -6 -4 -2 ºC
Ken Caldeira
Carnegie Institution
at Stanford Univ.
CO2
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"For the first time in human
history, science has shown that
we are altering the destiny of our
planet…
It’s quite alarming.”
Steven Chu,
U.S. Secretary of Energy
and Nobel Laureate
From his remarks to scientists and staff
at the Stanford Linear Accelerator in Palo Alto.
June 26, 2009
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California
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July Temperatures
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation
California’s
agricultural
regions will be
hard hit
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Midcentury
Increase of 5 Degrees Fahrenheit
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation
5+
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Could See Increases of 10 to 14
Degree Fahrenheit in Central Valley*
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
*“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”
Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS
10+
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Smaller snowpack
More water shortages
Less water for agriculture
“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”
Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS
33 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/climate_change.shtml
16 Inches
of Sea Rise
San Jose
San
Francisco
Vallejo
San Rafael
Oakland
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SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Foster City
East Palo Alto Menlo Park
16 Inches
of Sea Rise
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SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Moffett Field
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Sun,
Google,
and, Cisco
all at risk
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SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Vallejo
North Bay 16 Inches
of Sea Rise
37 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Richmond
North Bay 16 Inches
of Sea Rise
San Rafael
Larkspur
Corte Madera
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It Is Not Just the West Coast
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Many cities at risk
• Miami
• Key West
• Tampa
• New York
• Venice
• Amsterdam
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In 150 years, students may study
New Orleans like Carthage:
A city that no longer exists
21st Century
More intense precipitation
Bigger storms
Longer droughts
Shorter snow season
More flooding
Rising ocean
Animals, plants and
insects moving
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World’s Poor
Hard Hit
Move 17
million people
this century?
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Tipping Points Are
Irreversible Thresholds
Hour and Day Is Impossible to Predict
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Greenland Contains Enough Ice to
Raise the Ocean 22 feet
If Ice Sheets
Collapse the
Consequences
are Huge
Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
NSF Website and the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
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Acidification and Warming
of the Ocean Risk of some piece of the ecosystem collapsing
NOAA
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“The climate is nearing tipping
points. Changes are beginning
to appear and there is a
potential for explosive
changes, effects that would be
irreversible”
James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for
Space Studies
The Observer, February 15, 2009,
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“A common misperception is that this is
a crisis that is down the road.
“Climate change is real. It's happening
now.”
Senator John McCain
August 24, 2009
LA Times
Kristen Wyatt Associated Press
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-ap-us-global-
warming-national-parks,0,6162897.story
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Time Out For Good News
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Why is This Happening?
Unprecedented levels of wealth
Capitalism won
Unparalleled economic growth
Modern medicine and public health
Cured small pox (almost Polio)
Live longer
Population grow to 9+ billion
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Everyone Wants to Live Like Us
Need nine planets
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What Can Our Little Town
Do?
We can improve the efficiency of
our buildings
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Why Buildings?
Buildings are a huge problem:
Largest source of CO2 in America
Largest users of coal world-wide
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Sounds Simple:
Make Buildings More Efficient
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Must reduce Consumption
Everywhere
Old
New
Retail
Residential
Commercial
Schools
Government
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No City Has Ever Succeeded
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How Do you
Motivate
Building
Owners to
Take Action?
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Grade Our Buildings
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We Grade Our Children
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Do We Have the
Courage to
Grade Our Buildings?
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Grades Motivate Change
Motivates owners
Motivates tenants
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Recommended Format
Local comparison
National standard
• Source energy (per sq ft.)
– Scores above 80 are good,
below 70 are poor
Response to the National Energy Rating Program for Homes RFI
By Elton Sherwin
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People Here Like Good Grades
This will motivate a lot
of change
World-wide it might be
more effective than
cap and trade
Response to the National Energy Rating Program for Homes RFI
By Elton Sherwin
21st Century
More intense precipitation
Bigger storms
Longer droughts
Shorter snow season
More flooding
Rising ocean
Animals, plants and
insects moving
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What Can Our Town Do?
Let’s start by grading our buildings based
on how much energy they use
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Now is the Time to
Take Action
“Temperature, rainfall, and sea level are
largely irreversible for more than 1,000
years after carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions are completely stopped.”
“There’s no going back.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
January 26, 2009
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Appendix
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Why Grades Based on Energy?
Energy => CO2 => Environmental Damage
Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
Awards based on
anything other than
actual energy
consumption are not
helpful.
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By Elton Sherwin
Full response is available at
www.EltonSherwin.com and at www.slideshare.net/EltonSherwin
For more information, see
Response to the
National Energy Rating Program for Homes
Request for Information
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World-
wide Next
20 Years
(Soot)
Soot and Smoke Also
Damage Our Environment
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Garbage and Methane
Also Matter Garbage generates a lot of methane
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Top 10 Recommendations for
Cities
1. Eliminate all methane (dumps and food scraps)
2. Eliminate all soot (diesel & fireplaces)
3. Publish & post energy grades of buildings
www.EltonSherwin.com This presentation
More on building grading
What are Your Home’s Top Energy Wasters?
What are Your Company’s Top Energy
Wasters?
www.Amazon.com
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US DOE. CO2 in America. Excludes other greenhouse pollutants: methane,
Soot, CFCs, etc. Also excludes embedded energy in imports and most impacts from Agriculture.
CO2 Emissions:
Circled sources are
mostly buildings
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Which Building Types Use the Most
Energy Overall?
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Which Building use the Most
Energy per Square Foot?
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Electricity Consumption in
Healthcare Buildings
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125 Excludes embedded energy in imports and most impacts from agriculture.
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Checklists www.EltonSherwin.com What Can Cities and Counties Do?
Simple Green Building Code Homes
Commercial Property
What are Your Company’s Top Energy Wasters? Schools and public buildings
What are Your Home’s Top Energy
Wasters?
How Do I Find the Energy Hogs in My House?
Reducing Your Carbon Footprint
www.Amazon.com