Climate Change Overview Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009
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Transcript of Climate Change Overview Samoa Climate Change Summit 2009
Climate Change OverviewSamoa Climate Change Summit
2009
Willy MorrellUNDP Samoa
Multi Country Office – serving Samoa, Cook Islands, Tokelau and Niue
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The Nobel Peace Prize 2007
Al Gore and R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC
Science reaches out to public
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Note: Without natural greenhouse effect mean temperature would be around -18ºC
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Carbon Dioxide per year (7,500,000 Cruise Liners)
1000w Air-Conditioner 10 hours per day
5 kg carbon dioxide
27,246,000,000,005 kg
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Source: IPCC (2007)
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Rising Temperatures
1.5º
6º
Changes in:
- Rainfall - Soil evaporation - Physical geography, landscapes - Sea level - Extreme weather - Ecosystem distribution/composition
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“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising of the global mean sea level.” (IPCC, 2007)
The concern is that the climate is changing too rapidly for natural ecosystem and human adaptation.
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Time
Clim
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var
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1. Air temps 1.0 - 4.17ºC in the N. Pacific
2. Air temps up 0.99 - 3.11ºC in the S. Pacific
3. Sea temps up 1.0 - 3.0ºC
4. Ocean pH by 0.3 - 0.4 units
5. Sea-level rise of 0.19 - 0.58 m
6. Rainfall -2.7% to +25.8% in the N. Pacific
7. Rainfall -14% to +14.6% in the S. Pacific
8. Possible increased frequency and/or intensity of
extreme weather events including cyclones
Predicted regional changes by 2100
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Latest 2009 findings The Earth is presently tracking towards worst-case
impact scenarios outlined in the 2007 IPCC 4AR
The is growing evidence to suggest that these scenarios may be overly conservative
If present greenhouse gas emission trends continue the Pacific region could experience mean sea-level increases of 1m or more
We are locked into some degree of climate change regardless what the industrialized nations do now!
- Copenhagen Climate Change Council, April 2009 -
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Greenhouse gas emissions
Climate change impacts
Global Climate Change
• Climate Change Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation are complementary risk management strategies
• The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) frames obligations for each country to implement both strategies
MITIGATION ADAPTATION
• Reduce magnitude of global warming • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• Reduce vulnerability to CC impacts• Reduce human and material losses
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Climate Change impacts
Increasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional
public health costs
PUBLIC HEALTH AGRICULTURE
Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation
demand, growing risk of pest infestations
FORESTRY
Changes in forest composition,
extent, health & productivity
WATERRESOURCES
Variability in water supply, quality and distribution. More competition
and cross-border conflicts over water resources
COASTALSYSTEMS
Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress
on mangroves, marshes, wetlands
ECOSYSTEMSERVICES
Loss of habitat, species and protective
ecosystems, migratory shifts
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SCOPING STUDY
Given PIC vulnerability we must primarily focus on adaptation
Strong call from PICs for less consultation and more delivery of ‘concrete’ adaptation measures at the community level to provide case-studies and lessons learnt
A call to focus on adaptation measures that provide short-term development outcomes and build long term resilience (e.g. food security and DRM)
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CONTINUED…
Also need to continue focus on mitigation measures that provide ‘win-win’ outcomes
Short term poverty reductionLonger term resilience to climate changeReduced GHG emissions
e.g. renewable energy, sustainable transport, mangrove planting etc
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Fa’afetai lava