1

Local Leadership in an Age of Climate Change

Tough Choices: What Can Menlo Park Do About Climate Change?

Presentation to the

Menlo Park Rotary

Elton B. Sherwin

July 21, 2010

Agenda

The problem

What cities can do

2

4

Muir & Riggs

Glaciers Alaska

We Are Leaving

Our Children a

Different Planet

5

The North Pole is Disappearing

North Pole

NASA

Missing Ice

6

Greenland is Melting

Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

7

What is Going on?

8

We Are Burning Too Much Stuff

9

11

Why Does it Matter?

Graphic from www.solcomhouse.com

Greenhouse Effect

12

CO2

Tasteless

Odorless

Non toxic

Invisible (lets visible light through)

Traps Infrared Heat

Lasts for Many Decades

13

CO2 is the

Byproduct of the Combustion

14

CO2

Simple Greenhouse Effect

Graphic modified from www.stopglobalwarming.com.au

15

Some CO2 is Good

CO2

Graphic modified from www.stopglobalwarming.com.au

16

Double CO2 from 1800’s

Will Not Be Good

0 2 4 6 -6 -4 -2 ºC

Ken Caldeira

Carnegie Institution

at Stanford Univ.

CO2

17

"For the first time in human

history, science has shown that

we are altering the destiny of our

planet…

It’s quite alarming.”

Steven Chu,

U.S. Secretary of Energy

and Nobel Laureate

From his remarks to scientists and staff

at the Stanford Linear Accelerator in Palo Alto.

June 26, 2009

24

California

27

July Temperatures

2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy

www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation

California’s

agricultural

regions will be

hard hit

28

Midcentury

Increase of 5 Degrees Fahrenheit

2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy

www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation

5+

29

Could See Increases of 10 to 14

Degree Fahrenheit in Central Valley*

2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy

*“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”

Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS

10+

31

Smaller snowpack

More water shortages

Less water for agriculture

“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”

Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS

33 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/climate_change.shtml

16 Inches

of Sea Rise

San Jose

San

Francisco

Vallejo

San Rafael

Oakland

34

SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov

Foster City

East Palo Alto Menlo Park

16 Inches

of Sea Rise

35

SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov

Moffett Field

237

Sun,

Google,

and, Cisco

all at risk

36

SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov

Vallejo

North Bay 16 Inches

of Sea Rise

37 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov

Richmond

North Bay 16 Inches

of Sea Rise

San Rafael

Larkspur

Corte Madera

39

It Is Not Just the West Coast

40

Many cities at risk

• Miami

• Key West

• Tampa

• New York

• Venice

• Amsterdam

41

In 150 years, students may study

New Orleans like Carthage:

A city that no longer exists

21st Century

More intense precipitation

Bigger storms

Longer droughts

Shorter snow season

More flooding

Rising ocean

Animals, plants and

insects moving

43

World’s Poor

Hard Hit

Move 17

million people

this century?

46

Tipping Points Are

Irreversible Thresholds

Hour and Day Is Impossible to Predict

48

Greenland Contains Enough Ice to

Raise the Ocean 22 feet

If Ice Sheets

Collapse the

Consequences

are Huge

Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

NSF Website and the National Center for

Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

49

Acidification and Warming

of the Ocean Risk of some piece of the ecosystem collapsing

NOAA

52

“The climate is nearing tipping

points. Changes are beginning

to appear and there is a

potential for explosive

changes, effects that would be

irreversible”

James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for

Space Studies

The Observer, February 15, 2009,

56

“A common misperception is that this is

a crisis that is down the road.

“Climate change is real. It's happening

now.”

Senator John McCain

August 24, 2009

LA Times

Kristen Wyatt Associated Press

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-ap-us-global-

warming-national-parks,0,6162897.story

57

Time Out For Good News

58

Why is This Happening?

Unprecedented levels of wealth

Capitalism won

Unparalleled economic growth

Modern medicine and public health

Cured small pox (almost Polio)

Live longer

Population grow to 9+ billion

59

Everyone Wants to Live Like Us

Need nine planets

61

What Can Our Little Town

Do?

We can improve the efficiency of

our buildings

63

Why Buildings?

Buildings are a huge problem:

Largest source of CO2 in America

Largest users of coal world-wide

67

Sounds Simple:

Make Buildings More Efficient

68

Must reduce Consumption

Everywhere

Old

New

Retail

Residential

Commercial

Schools

Government

69

No City Has Ever Succeeded

71

How Do you

Motivate

Building

Owners to

Take Action?

75

Grade Our Buildings

78

We Grade Our Children

79

Do We Have the

Courage to

Grade Our Buildings?

81

Grades Motivate Change

Motivates owners

Motivates tenants

82

Recommended Format

Local comparison

National standard

• Source energy (per sq ft.)

– Scores above 80 are good,

below 70 are poor

Response to the National Energy Rating Program for Homes RFI

By Elton Sherwin

84

People Here Like Good Grades

This will motivate a lot

of change

World-wide it might be

more effective than

cap and trade

Response to the National Energy Rating Program for Homes RFI

By Elton Sherwin

21st Century

More intense precipitation

Bigger storms

Longer droughts

Shorter snow season

More flooding

Rising ocean

Animals, plants and

insects moving

94

What Can Our Town Do?

Let’s start by grading our buildings based

on how much energy they use

97

Now is the Time to

Take Action

“Temperature, rainfall, and sea level are

largely irreversible for more than 1,000

years after carbon dioxide (CO2)

emissions are completely stopped.”

“There’s no going back.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

January 26, 2009

100

Appendix

101

Why Grades Based on Energy?

Energy => CO2 => Environmental Damage

Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

Awards based on

anything other than

actual energy

consumption are not

helpful.

102

By Elton Sherwin

Full response is available at

www.EltonSherwin.com and at www.slideshare.net/EltonSherwin

For more information, see

Response to the

National Energy Rating Program for Homes

Request for Information

103

World-

wide Next

20 Years

(Soot)

Soot and Smoke Also

Damage Our Environment

104

Garbage and Methane

Also Matter Garbage generates a lot of methane

105

Top 10 Recommendations for

Cities

1. Eliminate all methane (dumps and food scraps)

2. Eliminate all soot (diesel & fireplaces)

3. Publish & post energy grades of buildings

www.EltonSherwin.com This presentation

More on building grading

What are Your Home’s Top Energy Wasters?

What are Your Company’s Top Energy

Wasters?

www.Amazon.com

114

US DOE. CO2 in America. Excludes other greenhouse pollutants: methane,

Soot, CFCs, etc. Also excludes embedded energy in imports and most impacts from Agriculture.

CO2 Emissions:

Circled sources are

mostly buildings

121

Which Building Types Use the Most

Energy Overall?

122

Which Building use the Most

Energy per Square Foot?

123

Electricity Consumption in

Healthcare Buildings

124

125 Excludes embedded energy in imports and most impacts from agriculture.

134

Checklists www.EltonSherwin.com What Can Cities and Counties Do?

Simple Green Building Code Homes

Commercial Property

What are Your Company’s Top Energy Wasters? Schools and public buildings

What are Your Home’s Top Energy

Wasters?

How Do I Find the Energy Hogs in My House?

Reducing Your Carbon Footprint

www.Amazon.com