Weather for All Levels: Forecasting information for Mates, Masters, Educators and Port Organizers

Joe Sienkiewicz

NOAA Ocean Prediction Center

www.weather.gov

www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov

http://www.facebook.com/OceanPredictionCenter

Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012

NOAA/NWS mission/responsibility• Protection of life and property, safety at sea, and

enhancement of economic opportunity

• Fulfill U.S. responsibilities with the World Meteorological Organization and Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS)– Text warning bulletins, graphic analyses and forecast products (Global

Maritime Distress Safety System)

– Traditional focus wind and waves

– Expanding to operational oceanographic products

– Increasing role in Arctic

• Forecast support– Incident response, government operations

• Science based organization

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weather.gov

NWS Coastal Waters Forecasts

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NWS Coastal Waters Forecastshttp://www.weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm

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NWS Offshore Forecasts

NOAA Forecast Responsibility

High Seas Warning CategoriesGALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11HURRICANE FORCE - >64 knots Force 12

NWS High Seas Forecasts

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/

http://www.weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm

National Hurricane

Center

NOAA Forecast Responsibility

Wind Warning CategoriesGALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9

STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11HURRICANE FORCE - 64 knots and greater Force 12

Tropical Cyclone Warning CategoriesTROPICAL STORM – 34-63 knots Force 8-11HURRICANE - >64 knots Force 12

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

National HurricaneCenter

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012

www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov

Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012

Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012

Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012

FrontsObservations

Isobars

WARNINGS

Surface ChartsAnalysis, 24, 48, 96 HR Forecasts

Pressure Centers

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1030

987

988

980

10241019

GALE

GALE

DVLPGSTORM

L

L

LH

H

25

25

10

Pressure Centers

24 hr forecast position/intensity

L

Front – boundary between air masses of different temperature characteristics

Global average sea level pressure

1013.2 millibars

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Link to MP4 video explaining surface analysis

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Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012

Isobars (4 mb), Isotherms (4 deg F)

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Isobars, Temp gradient

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ASCAT winds

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A

B

C

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php/

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The evolution – Shapiro Keyser CycloneLIFE CYCLE OF AN OCEAN STORM

L

L

LL

OPEN WAVE

FRONTAL FRACTURE

T-BONEMATURE

GALE WINDS STORM WINDS

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS

(SECLUSION)

LIFE CYCLE OF AN OCEAN STORM

L

L

LL

OPEN WAVE

FRONTAL FRACTURE

T-BONEMATURE

GALE WINDS STORM WINDS

The evolution – Shapiro Keyser Cyclone(SECLUSION)

00 hr1012 mb

20 kt

12 hr998 mb

35 kt

24 hr966 mb

55 kt36 hr

961 mb65 kt

500 mb Heights

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ppaa50s.gifAtlantic 00 and 12 UTC 500 mb with satellitehttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ppaa51s.gif

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ppba50s.gifPacific 00 and 12 UTC 500 mb with satellitehttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ppba51s.gif

Jet Stream 300 mb

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TROPICAL CYCLONES

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Hurricane “Danielle”

Tropical Storm “Earl”

Tropical Wavebecame T.S. Fiona

Aug 30th

End of 2003 Season

PEAKSep 10

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20105 Hurricanes

Average Atlantic Hurricane Season 9.8 named storms

5.8 Hurricanes

2011 18 “named” storms 7 Hurricanes3 Major Hurricanes

Another WELL ABOVE AVERAGESEASON 32

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2011atl.jpg

34 58.2 82.2 106.2 154.2 207.5 272.5

12 24 48 7260 120 250 380 1970-197960 120 230 350 1980-198945 85 155 225 1990-1999

34http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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•Know where to receive latest information, continue to monitor!!!http://www.weather.gov/om/marine/home.htmhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov

•We continue to get better at forecasting track and formation!http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_ATL_trk_error_trend.gif

•Intensity still a big problem!!!http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_ATL_int_error_trend.gif

•Have seen more cyclones later in season…well into October November and December

•Know the climatology…formation areas and favored trackshttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

•Hurricanes are just as dangerous in the northern latitudes•They move faster and are more efficient wave producers

Dealing with Hurricane Season

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http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

Acronyms

GFS – Global Forecast SystemNAM – North AmericanMesoscale ModelWW3 – WAVEWATCH IIIRUC – Rapid Update CycleSREF – Short Range EnsembleGEFS – Global EnsemblePrediction SystemNAEFS – North AmericanEnsemble Forecast System

(GEFS & Canadian)

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http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

Thoughts• Be observant – relate what is happening at your

location (shore or at sea) to graphical analyses and forecasts– Clouds, wind speed / direction, barometer, radar

• Apply your knowledge of analyses to forecasts

• Mid-latitudes – 500 mb progression – “The Weather Pattern”

• Read – NWS discussion (local or from OPC, NHC) (WHY!)

– NWS Synopses (Coastal Waters and Offshore) (Expectation)