The Future of Marine Weather Forecasting

Joe Sienkiewicz

Chief, Ocean Applications Branch

www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov1

1/30/2012 TSA 2012, Newport, RI

• Ocean Prediction Center• Graphical Product Suite• Transition to Gridded Production• Increasing Arctic Focus

• Satellite Readiness• Ocean Vector Winds

• Lessons learned• Ongoing opportunities

• Preparing for new capabilities

• Oceanographic Focus• Analyses and forecasts

• Ensemble Forecast Techniques• Probabilistic fields• Extend forecast period ( to10 days)

• Tropical Cyclones• Waves…

• Ocean, near shore2

Outline

Safety of Life At Sea, 1974

• Chapter IV – Radio Communication

• GMDSS

• Chapter V – Safety of Navigation

• Meteorological services

3

IMO Convention Link

OPC mission/responsibility• Protection of life and property, safety at sea, and

enhancement of economic opportunity

• Partially fulfill U.S. responsibilities with the World Meteorological Organization and Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS)

• Forecast support

– Government incident response (USCG,NOAA)

– Government operations (USCG, Navy, NOAA)

• Science based organization

4

NOAA Forecast Responsibility

High Seas Warning CategoriesGALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11HURRICANE FORCE - >64 knots Force 12

5

6

Grid Domains

5 km resolution –- covers offshore domains- basis for GRIB files

More than Grids• Basis for legacy text products via formatter

– Role of forecaster changes

• Interact with grids not typing and drawing

• Economize forecast production

– Allow focus farther out in time

• Polygons for warning areas

• Electronic Charting displays

– WMO committee working on weather elementsfor S-57 compatibility (will include gridded info)

• GIS compatible formats8

Atmospheric Model Improvements

• Higher resolution – NAM 4 km

– Crosses important boundary ~6-8 km

– Convection driven

• Severe Weather

• Aviation

• (benefits all communities, marine applications)

• Optimize input data sources

• Verification

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 9

4 km NA Mesoscale Model

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 10

4 km NA Mesoscale Model

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 11

4 km NA Mesoscale Model

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4 km NA Mesoscale Model

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 13

Requirements for Mid and High Latitude Applications

Joe SienkiewiczNOAA / NWS Ocean Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

Satellite Readiness / Optimization

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ASCAT on EUMETSAT METOP-A

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php/

OSCAT on Indian OceanSat-2

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 16http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/oscat_50_prod/oscat_app.cgi

OSCAT and ASCAT combined

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 17

High resolution Ocean Surface Vector Winds (OSVW) fully integrated into operations

• Twice daily near complete wind field

• Increased situational awareness

• Improved detection and warning capability

• Enhanced understanding of winds over oceans

• Allowed focus on extreme cyclones (Hurricane Force)

18

Pacific Cup Weather Seminar – San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010

QuikSCAT Winds0945 UTC 13 March 2006

Wind Speed in knots

Pacific Cup Weather Seminar – San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010

22c

8c

25c

15c

6c

1c

Geostationary SatelliteSea Surface Temperature

Pacific Cup Weather Seminar – San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010

Wind Speed Difference between QuikSCAT and NCEP GFS Model0900 UTC 13 March

Wind Speed difference (QuikSCAT-GFS Model)Under forecast - Over forecast

11 9

23

14

24 23

15

22

3733

3134

64

51

39

4945

34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Cyclones

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Atlantic

Pacific

Hurricane Force Extra-tropical Cyclones –Detection and Warning Trend using QuikSCAT

2000-2009

•Hurricane Force Warning Initiated Dec 2000 •Detection increased with:

-Forecaster familiarity-Data availability-Improved resolution -Improved algorithm

QuikSCAT Launch Jun 99

Hurricane Force Wind WarningInitiated Dec 00

25 km QuikSCATAvailable in N-AWIPS

Oct 01

12.5 km QuikSCATavailable May 04

Improved wind algorithm and rain flag Oct 06

TotalsA-289P-269558

WARNINGCATEGORIES

Pre- QSCAT1. GALE 34-47 kt

2. STORM >48

QSCAT ERA1. GALE 34-47 kt

2. STORM 48 -63 kt3. HURCN FORCE

> 64 kt

May 19, 2010 22OVWST, Barcelona Spain

Forecaster estimated Hurricane Force cyclones Sep 09-Apr 2010

• Atl – below previous 5 yr average (43)DJFM A– (32.6) 22

• Pac – at avg. (40.2)DJFMA – (29.8) 28

• *highly subjective post QuikSCAT

May 19, 2010 OVWST, Barcelona Spain 23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Atlantic Pacific

31

40

2009-10

Atlantic

Pacific128 With

QSCAT

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 More

8yr

Freq

uenc

y D

istr

ibut

ion

Max Deepening Rate (hPa/24hr)

Distribution of 24hr Max Deepening Rate8yr Totals

2001-2009 Climatology

0

1

2

3

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7

8

9

10

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Ave

rage

num

ber

of H

F cy

clon

es (

8yrs

)

Month

8yr Average Monthly Distribution

Feb 23, 2010 24AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR

Peak activityDec, Jan – PacificJan, Feb – Atlantic

AtlanticPacific

Deepening RatesExplosive deepeners “Bombs”

Pacific faster deepeners

Bombs

Hazard toopen Waves

Geographic Distribution of Hurricane Force Extra-tropical Cyclones

North Atlantic4,000/yr container transits

1,000/yr bulkers

North Pacific6,000/yr container transits

1,500/yr bulker

Feb 23, 2010 25AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR

Primary impact - open oceanDo make landfall

Waves impact coasts

Gale Force Wind Frequency

Storm Force Wind Frequency

QuikSCAT composites of cyclones at HF Intensity

Hurricane Force Wind Frequency

Feb 23, 2010 26AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR

1000

1000

1000

2000

2000 2000

3000

30003000

Range rings -1000 km increments

~ 500 wind fields forcomposites

Cyclones~6000 km diameter

asymmetric wind field

HF winds~ 1000 km S of center

• Hurricane Force Winds

– Successfully modeled

– Onset, rapidly deepening phase

– Bent-back front, key ingredient for low level jet

– Meso to small synoptic scale

– Need validation effort for extreme conditions!!

– Using results to tailor ensemble based forecast guidance

Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model Results

WRF - 10m Winds 925 hPa - Frontal zones

WRF Simulation Pacific Feb 2008 cyclone

27

Day 2/4 Cyclone Forecast Verification•Track error comparable to NHC Atlantic TC error (~25 nm/12 hrs)

•Under predict depth and wind speed at day 4

•Forecast challenges remainbasically can predict a major cyclone and where

intensity remains a challenge

Experimenting with ensemble approach•Promising but lacking representation of higher wind speeds

Ensemble wind speed probabilities

34 kt 48 kt 34 kt 48 kt

60 kt 64 kt 60 kt 64 kt

F24 F96

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Altimeter Wave HeightsJason, Jason2, Envisat, Cryosat

CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 29

http://www.altimetry.info/html/appli/atmosphere/wind_wave_en.html

30

Satellite Altimeter Wave HeightsSignificant Wave Height

Average of 1/3 highest waves (feet)

57-66 ft

290 nm>45ft

600 nm>30ft

North Atlantic Feb 14, 2011

GOES-R Preparation

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 31

Meteosat Second GenerationRGB Airmass Product

GOES-R Preparation

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 32

Meteosat Second GenerationRGB Airmass Product

EUMETSAT RGB Airmass Imagery

• Foci

– Extreme ocean storms

– Visibility and fog

– Offshore convection

– Oceanographic applications

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 33

GOES-R PreparationNASA SpORT GOES-R

Increasing Oceanographic FocusSatellite based analyses

Numerical model predictions(Navy Coastal Ocean Model)

(NOAA Real Time Ocean Forecast System)

34

GOES Satellite Sea Surface Temperature

35

RTOFS-GlobalExample surface currents

from

NOAA Real Time Ocean

Forecast System Global

With NAVY

NAVY Coastal Ocean Model

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml

37

SurfaceCurrent(knots)

SurfaceTemp

(deg C)72 hourLoop

3 hourly

Extra-tropical Storm Surge Model

38

subinertial waves

Cold wake

Real time testing

for 2008 hurricane

season (Ike).

Realistic Oceanic

Simulation and

Response to a

Storm!

Hurricane Weather Research Forecast Model - HYCOM

Wind Against Current• Can generate square breaking waves

• Guidance product becoming available via web

– NCOM and NOAA Global Forecast System Winds

• Demo higher resolution NCOM and NOAA NAM

40

Ensemble forecast approach

CMA 2010, Stamford, CT

Low positions – 90 member: 50 ECMWF, 20 GFS, 20 CMC

3/24/2010 41

ENSEMBLE 4 day Storm Track

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 42

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 43

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/windprob.shtml

CMA 2010, Stamford, CT

GALE STORM

60 kts HURRICANE FORCE

44

ENSEMBLE – VISIBILITY LESS THAN 0.5 nm

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 45

Tropical Cyclones

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 46

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/47

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 48

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 49

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 50

GOALS

• 20% reduction of track and intensity error over 5 years• 50% reduction of track and intensity error over 10 years with forecast to 7 daysApproach • address observations, physics, air-sea-wave processes

OCEAN WAVES

51

Waves /inundation• Present capability illustrated with test runs for

hurricane Gustav.

– Grid resolution up to 400m, working on 100m grids.

– Dynamic inundation using ADCIRC water levels.

Humboldt Bar – Waves/CurrentNWS Eureka

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 53

Waves• Igor in the multi-grid hurricane

wave model:

– 7.5km coastal resolution.

– Shallow water physics.

– Note shadow zones behind Bahamas and Bermuda (!).

– Wave system based wind sea and swell separation (from USACE)

Wind Fetch – Cape Flattery, WA

http://ftp.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ppt/Tall_Ships_2012/Swell.wmv

To see the swell developRapidly and head towardEurope click the linkOrange is swell of 20 secor more period

ASCAT (NOAA) GFS14– 0013 UTC F72 VT 14-0000

OSCAT ``` ECMWF 11f7214-0155 UTC F72 VT 13-0000

NOAA – Increasing Arctic Focus

• Satellite based ice analyses

NWS Alaska Region and Ocean Prediction Center Arctic Web Page

http://arctic.arh.noaa.gov/

GEFS Ensemble Probability winds 25 kt or higher

Navy NCOM Ocean Surface CurrentNOAA OI SST with Ice Edge

- Marine focused human forecast guidance - Day 1-5- Oceanographic and probabilistic guidance to Day 3

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 61

Ecological PredictionSea Nettles

3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 62

http://chesapeakebay.noaa.gov/forecasting-sea-nettles

Cross disciplineCross organizationsInputs

SSTSalinity

Summary• Traditional marine weather services

– Transitioning to gridded based production

– Grids open up possibilities of new products

• Expanding into operational oceanography

• Optimizing data usage to improve services

– Satellite sources

– Conventional data sources (ships and buoys)

• Increasing use of Ensemble based information

– Primarily internal guidance (now)

– Basis for products of future

• Improvements to Hurricane and Wave prediction

• Ecological Prediction next evolution63