Weather for All Levels: Forecasting information for Mates ... · NOAA Forecast Responsibility. High...
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Weather for All Levels: Forecasting information for Mates, Masters, Educators and Port Organizers Joe Sienkiewicz NOAA Ocean Prediction Center www.weather.gov www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov http://www.facebook.com/OceanPredictionCenter Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012
Transcript of Weather for All Levels: Forecasting information for Mates ... · NOAA Forecast Responsibility. High...
Weather for All Levels: Forecasting information for Mates, Masters, Educators and Port Organizers
Joe Sienkiewicz
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center
www.weather.gov
www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov
http://www.facebook.com/OceanPredictionCenter
Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012
NOAA/NWS mission/responsibility• Protection of life and property, safety at sea, and
enhancement of economic opportunity
• Fulfill U.S. responsibilities with the World Meteorological Organization and Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS)– Text warning bulletins, graphic analyses and forecast products (Global
Maritime Distress Safety System)
– Traditional focus wind and waves
– Expanding to operational oceanographic products
– Increasing role in Arctic
• Forecast support– Incident response, government operations
• Science based organization
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weather.gov
NWS Coastal Waters Forecasts
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NWS Coastal Waters Forecastshttp://www.weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm
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NWS Offshore Forecasts
NOAA Forecast Responsibility
High Seas Warning CategoriesGALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11HURRICANE FORCE - >64 knots Force 12
NWS High Seas Forecasts
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine_forecasts.shtml
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/
http://www.weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm
National Hurricane
Center
NOAA Forecast Responsibility
Wind Warning CategoriesGALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9
STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11HURRICANE FORCE - 64 knots and greater Force 12
Tropical Cyclone Warning CategoriesTROPICAL STORM – 34-63 knots Force 8-11HURRICANE - >64 knots Force 12
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/
National HurricaneCenter
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012
www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov
Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012
Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012
Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012
FrontsObservations
Isobars
WARNINGS
Surface ChartsAnalysis, 24, 48, 96 HR Forecasts
Pressure Centers
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1030
987
988
980
10241019
GALE
GALE
DVLPGSTORM
L
L
LH
H
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25
10
Pressure Centers
24 hr forecast position/intensity
L
Front – boundary between air masses of different temperature characteristics
Global average sea level pressure
1013.2 millibars
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Link to MP4 video explaining surface analysis
Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012
Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012
Isobars (4 mb), Isotherms (4 deg F)
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Isobars, Temp gradient
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ASCAT winds
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A
B
C
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php/
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The evolution – Shapiro Keyser CycloneLIFE CYCLE OF AN OCEAN STORM
L
L
LL
OPEN WAVE
FRONTAL FRACTURE
T-BONEMATURE
GALE WINDS STORM WINDS
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
(SECLUSION)
LIFE CYCLE OF AN OCEAN STORM
L
L
LL
OPEN WAVE
FRONTAL FRACTURE
T-BONEMATURE
GALE WINDS STORM WINDS
The evolution – Shapiro Keyser Cyclone(SECLUSION)
00 hr1012 mb
20 kt
12 hr998 mb
35 kt
24 hr966 mb
55 kt36 hr
961 mb65 kt
500 mb Heights
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ppaa50s.gifAtlantic 00 and 12 UTC 500 mb with satellitehttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ppaa51s.gif
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ppba50s.gifPacific 00 and 12 UTC 500 mb with satellitehttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/ppba51s.gif
Jet Stream 300 mb
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TROPICAL CYCLONES
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Hurricane “Danielle”
Tropical Storm “Earl”
Tropical Wavebecame T.S. Fiona
Aug 30th
End of 2003 Season
PEAKSep 10
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20105 Hurricanes
Average Atlantic Hurricane Season 9.8 named storms
5.8 Hurricanes
2011 18 “named” storms 7 Hurricanes3 Major Hurricanes
Another WELL ABOVE AVERAGESEASON 32
34 58.2 82.2 106.2 154.2 207.5 272.5
12 24 48 7260 120 250 380 1970-197960 120 230 350 1980-198945 85 155 225 1990-1999
34http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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•Know where to receive latest information, continue to monitor!!!http://www.weather.gov/om/marine/home.htmhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov
•We continue to get better at forecasting track and formation!http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_ATL_trk_error_trend.gif
•Intensity still a big problem!!!http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/OFCL_ATL_int_error_trend.gif
•Have seen more cyclones later in season…well into October November and December
•Know the climatology…formation areas and favored trackshttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml
•Hurricanes are just as dangerous in the northern latitudes•They move faster and are more efficient wave producers
Dealing with Hurricane Season
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http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/
Acronyms
GFS – Global Forecast SystemNAM – North AmericanMesoscale ModelWW3 – WAVEWATCH IIIRUC – Rapid Update CycleSREF – Short Range EnsembleGEFS – Global EnsemblePrediction SystemNAEFS – North AmericanEnsemble Forecast System
(GEFS & Canadian)
Tall Ships America - Jan 31, 2012
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/
Thoughts• Be observant – relate what is happening at your
location (shore or at sea) to graphical analyses and forecasts– Clouds, wind speed / direction, barometer, radar
• Apply your knowledge of analyses to forecasts
• Mid-latitudes – 500 mb progression – “The Weather Pattern”
• Read – NWS discussion (local or from OPC, NHC) (WHY!)
– NWS Synopses (Coastal Waters and Offshore) (Expectation)
