Water for All - Challenges of Change

Jeremy Bird International Water Management Institute31st October, 2014

Photo: Hamish John Appleby, IWMI

UNITING AGRICULTURE AND NATURE FOR POVERTY REDUCTION

Land and water degradation a major global challenge

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GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)

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Consumption and income 1961-2000

American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 2003.http://ajcn.nutrition.org/content/78/3/660S.full#ref-8

Dietary change - meat requires 100 times more water than grain protein

Climate change - uncertainty and ambiguity in future projections – a complex planning challenge

Spatial Pattern of Rainfall Projections for 2050s

Dry Zone

Wet Zone

Intermediate Zone

Dry Zone

Wet Zone

Intermediate Zone

Projection 1 Projection 2

De Silva, 2006

De Silva 2006Basnayake et al. 2004

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Dry Zone

Wet Zone

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Projection 3

De Silva, 2006

Punyawardane et al. 2010

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Highest temperature increase in agricultural areas

Observed climatic changes

Temperature

Source: Zubair et al. 2005

Anuradhapura

Badulla

Rainfall Change in distribution of annual rainfall

Southwest monsoon: Stable (Yala)

Northeast monsoon: reduced and variability increased (Maha)

Increasing variability of rainfall

Months (Season) 1931-1960 1961-1990

Dec- Feb (NEM) 31 % 42 %

March – Apr (FIM) 23 % 27 %

May – Sep (SWM) 21 % 16 %

Oct – Nov (SIM) 22 % 23 %

Annual 11 % 14 %

Punyawardena (2011)

Rainfall variability observed

Identifying climate change Vulnerability Hotspots – to design locally relevant adaptation measures

Climate Change Vulnerability Index

Anuradhapura

Nuwara-Eliya

RatnapuraSensitivity Index

Exposure Index

Adaptive Capacity Index

Climate change will affect our rivers

The Sri Lanka Environmental Flow Calculator (SLEFC) is a software package to estimate how much water should be left in rivers to ensure they remain healthy

This methodology is being used by the Dam Safety and Water Resources Planning Project (DSWRPP) in the National Water Resources Master Plan and the Mahaweli and Mundeni Aru Basin development plans

E-Flows

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Talawakelle

Mallanda

PeradeniyaPolgolla

Ullapane

Example Application to Ullapane on River Mahaweli

Establishing the natural flow Regime at Ullapane

Flow Duration Curves before constructing Kotmale

KotmaleReservoir

Victoria Reservoir

Peradeniya

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Mallanda

• 23 flood occurrences• 500 lives lost• 9 million people affected

• economic loss of USD 1 billion

Flood events in the last 10 years…extremes likely to increase

What can be done to reduce impact?

If we can predict more accurately where and when floods will occur, and how big they will be, opportunities for mitigation will be enhanced.

Digital geospatial flood inundation mapping is a powerful new approach for flood response and control that shows floodwater extent and depth on the land surface.

Space technology can help manage flooding

Satellite data has been used to estimate flood frequency and extent covering entire Sri Lanka.

Flood impact on agriculture studied at different scales.

There is future potential to develop flood-risk mapping and agricultural insurance products

Flood Risk Products

Extent of flooding during the years 2006–2011 derived from ALOS PALSAR data (left) and cropland extent (right) in Sri Lanka

• Fine-scale flood-risk products mapped using satellite datasets from 2000 to 2011.

• Province-wise flood statistics and agricultural impacts are being analyzed.

• Knowledge generated here can be used by the Disaster Management Centre and the Irrigation Department for mitigation, preparedness and index-based crop insurance

Eastern Province (Trincomalee)

Agricultural flooding in Polonnaruwa

Water Storage Continuum Source: McCartney & Smakhtin 2010

… another is to improve resilience through storage options – Malwathu Oya and Kalu Ganga Basins

Low Cost Mobile Weather Stations for water management decision making

Low cost mobile weather stations can record weather related variables (rainfall, wind speed) electronically and send all information to one website.

A prototype weather station has been set up in the Irrigation Department office in Anuradhapura and is currently undergoing testing with the collaboration of the Irrigation Department

Photos: IWMI

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Growth in irrigation through groundwater expansion, India

Source: Mukherji, A., S. Rawat and T. Shah. 2013.

But, …risk of over-abstraction

Map: Tushaar Shah

Promoting sustainable Groundwater Use in the Dry Zone

A survey on water supply and agro wells is underway in the Malwathu Oya and Mahaweli System H areas.

The survey will help to determine how much groundwater can be safely extracted for irrigation in these areas, and to what extent groundwater can supply water needs during droughts

Photo: Salman Siddiqui, IWMI

Agro-well density, Jaffna Agro- wells increased by 37 % Agricultural land increased by 6%

(in Valikamam South, 2003 - 2007)

Excess irrigation: up to 230 % Excess fertilizer: 108 in N (kg/ha)

(in Valikamam, 2011)

(IWMI, 2011)

Potential over-abstraction

Research shows signs of sustainable abstraction thresholds being exceeded in Jaffna…

(IWMI, 2011)

Suggestions: Efficient irrigation

management Increase groundwater

recharge Salt tolerant crops Awareness programs Strengthen water

management committee …

Consequences on saline intrusion…

…adopting local,

efficient systems

Kalpitiya

Photos: Herath Manthrithilake, IWMI

Qualitative research into unprecedented growth in commercial agriculture underwritten by groundwater accessed through agro-wells and an intensification of land use

Socio-economic surveys

Feedback and policy dialogue in NCP planned for Oct 2014

Groundwater-based Agrarian Changein North Central Province, Sri Lanka

Photo: IWMI

Improving Groundwater irrigation in Yala season

Area – 1.5 ac. of small onion Initial investment for the system – LKR. 399,000Cost for land preparation, fertilizer and harvesting – Last season- LKR. 197,000 Net profit – LKR. 1,054,000

Photos: IWMI

Improving Irrigation Using ICT

• Installing automatic flow gauges

• Increasing and improving ICT use in irrigation mgt

• Groundwater well survey (Locations; Depths)

• Improving Groundwater irrigation in Yala season

Mahaweli system H – ( Right bank main canal)

http://dialog.scadanet.lk:8090/login.php

Automatic Canal flow monitoring

2014-10-2

Sri Lanka Water Resources Information Systemslwater.iwmi.org

Increasing Waste : A Challenge for our Water Bodies

Solid waste

Liquid waste

Kinniya Hikkaduwa Eravur

Kinniya GampahaKalmunaiPhotos: IWMI

From Challenge to Opportunity

Co-Composting

Safe Organic Fertilizer

Photos: IWMI

Safeguarding our water bodies

National sanitation policy considering improved liquid waste (septage) management.

National guidelines and manuals on septage management for safe disposal and/or reuse.

Close collaboration with:

Supporting Pilisaru project with technical options for high value organic fertilizers.

High priority on product safety. Market analysis to ensure max. cost

recovery. Soil and crop trials for farmer field schools.

Recovering nutrients for organic fertilizer

Technical demonstrations to introduce new concepts for value creation

IWMI expertise transfer. Demonstrational projects to commercial pilots. Studies on local resource utilization. Applicability to local conditions - crops and soils

Co-composting initiatives using urban waste streams.

Low cost technologies for nutrient recovery and enhancement.

Pelletizing technology from China, tested by IWMI in India and Africa.

Knowledge transfer from other countries

Report:Lagoons of Sri Lanka: From the Origins to the Present

Kappaladi Lagoon, Chilaw

Distribution of coastal lagoons in Sri Lanka

Incidence of CKDu patients and fluoride distribution

Complex challenge – CKDu

Working paper:Chronic Kidney Decease of unknown origin – Literature Review

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VISIONA world in which agriculture thrives within vibrant ecosystems, where communities have higher incomes, improved food security and the ability to continuously improve their lives

MISSIONInforming the development of policies, institutions and investments toward sustaining ecosystems and their services as a prerequisite for sustainable and resilient agricultural intensification and improved livelihoods

CGIAR Research Program – Water Land and Ecosystems

Photo: Hamish John Appleby, IWMI

www.iwmi.org www.wle.cgiar.org

Photo: Hamish John Appleby, IWMI