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Uninhabited Aerial Systems: Disruption

or Prescription? Dr. T. X. Hammes

Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University

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Disclaimer

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Autonomous and Inevitable

 Thesis: Autonomous systems will dominate the air domain within two decades l  Range l  Numbers l  Cost l  Vulnerability of bases

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Key UAS technologies in short-term

 Small warheads  3D Printing  Drones w/ task-specific Artificial Intelligence  Cheap space

Small Explosively

Formed Projective

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Nano-energetics have 10X power of TNT

3D: Capability + Volume

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10,000 to 100,000 a day

Autonomous 50 KM Range $800

Mass Launch Drones

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Drones + AI

Cheap Space

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Think Differently

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Directed Energy: Lasers and Microwave  Advantage to land-based defense l  Massive power generation advantage l  Concealment

 Weakness l  Lasers - smoke, haze, reflective coatings l  Microwave – Faraday cages

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Historical pattern

 New concepts evolve with new tech l  Assistant l  Partner l  Replacement

 Requires aggressive, honest experimentation l  Dishonesty – French/Japanese/U.S. l  Inertia and “unions” – British and US

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Where is the Air Domain?

 Replacement l  Persistent Surveillance – low threat l  High risk strike

 Partner l  Deep strike, naval anti-surface, anti-air

warfare, CAS l  Support – space and logistics

 Assistant l  EMW / ASW / Communications relay

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Immediate issue: Range Obsolescence

 Armored knight vs. pike formation or crossbows  Pike formation vs. musket formation  Battleships vs. carriers

Still superior but … couldn’t survive to close the range

Marked cost advantage

F-35A

Cruise Missiles

Ballistic Missiles

Drones

F-35A vs Missiles/Drones Range in Nautical Miles

Tradeoffs

 F-35: $140M, $65K per operating hour  Loitering TLAM: $1.1M; w/ AM : $600K  QX-222: $2M

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1 F-35 or 230 TLAMs or 70 QX-222 15 more TLAM per F-35 squadron month

5 more QX-222 per squadron month

Only operating hour costs!!!

Conventional – Air Domain

 Attack 4th/5th generation aircraft and key enablers (AWAC, tankers) on ground  Strike logistics & C2 nodes  Evolved cruise missiles and drones take over most missions

Is manned fighter range obsolete?

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Conclusion  Autonomy is inevitable  Lead the transition – two goals l  Seize the advantages in each stage l  Rethink operational concepts

l  Experiment ruthlessly l  Bases are not off limits – let chips fall l  Become an aerospace force

l  Study how others succeeded Maintain “Air Mindedness”

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Contact Information

thomas.hammes@ndu.edu