Uninhabited Aerial Systems: Disruption · Drones w/ task-specific Artificial Intelligence Cheap...
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1 Uninhabited Aerial Systems: Disruption or Prescription? Dr. T. X. Hammes Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University
Transcript of Uninhabited Aerial Systems: Disruption · Drones w/ task-specific Artificial Intelligence Cheap...
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Uninhabited Aerial Systems: Disruption
or Prescription? Dr. T. X. Hammes
Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University
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Disclaimer
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Autonomous and Inevitable
Thesis: Autonomous systems will dominate the air domain within two decades l Range l Numbers l Cost l Vulnerability of bases
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Key UAS technologies in short-term
Small warheads 3D Printing Drones w/ task-specific Artificial Intelligence Cheap space
Small Explosively
Formed Projective
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Nano-energetics have 10X power of TNT
3D: Capability + Volume
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10,000 to 100,000 a day
Autonomous 50 KM Range $800
Mass Launch Drones
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Drones + AI
Cheap Space
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Think Differently
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Directed Energy: Lasers and Microwave Advantage to land-based defense l Massive power generation advantage l Concealment
Weakness l Lasers - smoke, haze, reflective coatings l Microwave – Faraday cages
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Historical pattern
New concepts evolve with new tech l Assistant l Partner l Replacement
Requires aggressive, honest experimentation l Dishonesty – French/Japanese/U.S. l Inertia and “unions” – British and US
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Where is the Air Domain?
Replacement l Persistent Surveillance – low threat l High risk strike
Partner l Deep strike, naval anti-surface, anti-air
warfare, CAS l Support – space and logistics
Assistant l EMW / ASW / Communications relay
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Immediate issue: Range Obsolescence
Armored knight vs. pike formation or crossbows Pike formation vs. musket formation Battleships vs. carriers
Still superior but … couldn’t survive to close the range
Marked cost advantage
F-35A
Cruise Missiles
Ballistic Missiles
Drones
F-35A vs Missiles/Drones Range in Nautical Miles
Tradeoffs
F-35: $140M, $65K per operating hour Loitering TLAM: $1.1M; w/ AM : $600K QX-222: $2M
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1 F-35 or 230 TLAMs or 70 QX-222 15 more TLAM per F-35 squadron month
5 more QX-222 per squadron month
Only operating hour costs!!!
Conventional – Air Domain
Attack 4th/5th generation aircraft and key enablers (AWAC, tankers) on ground Strike logistics & C2 nodes Evolved cruise missiles and drones take over most missions
Is manned fighter range obsolete?
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Conclusion Autonomy is inevitable Lead the transition – two goals l Seize the advantages in each stage l Rethink operational concepts
l Experiment ruthlessly l Bases are not off limits – let chips fall l Become an aerospace force
l Study how others succeeded Maintain “Air Mindedness”
