Post on 26-May-2015
Aline te Linde
Nijmegen20 september 2012
Cross-boundary flood risk
The Rhine basin
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CV Aline te Linde
1995 – 2001 Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam
MSc hydrology
2002 – 2007 WL | Delft Hydraulics
Integrated Water Management
2008 – 2012 Deltares
Unit Scenarios and Policy Analysis
2006 – present Institute for Environmental Studies, VU A’dam
PhD - 2011
2012 – present Twynstra Gudde Consultants and Managers
Advisory group Water
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http://www.ubvu.vu.nl
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Water manager has four questions
1. How often does this happen?
2. What is the expected damage?
3. Does this change in the future?
4. Which measures can I take?
Flood risk = probabiliy x damage
Scenarios
– Climate change
– Socio-economic / land use
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Rhine
length: 1320 km shipping > 200 t/year
River basin
surface area: 185.000 km2 7 countries
58 million inhabitants 11 million in flood prone areas
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Design discharge Lobith
12 april 2023
2100 KNMI – Warm
2100 KNMI – Moderate
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Text
Land use Water depth Potential damage
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Risk = probability x damage
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Risk = probability x damage
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TextIncrease flood risk entire
River basin:
54 – 230% in 2030
(reference = 2000)
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Cross-boundary floods
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1926
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Cross-boundary low flows
NL = most downstream country
Alpine water towers
Low flows: ~90 % of Rhine discharge from the Alps
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Cross-boundary approach
EU legislation for all countries
– EU Water Framework Directive (2000)
commits European Union member states to achieve good qualitative and
quantitative status of all water bodies by 2015
– EU Floods Directive (2007)
“Member States shall furthermore coordinate their flood risk management practices
in shared river basins, […] and shall in solidarity not undertake measures that would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries.”
Obviously relevant for downstream countries
However,
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The Dutch Delta Programme
“The object of the new-style Delta Plan (the Delta Works of the future) is to protect our country against high water and keep our freshwater supply up to standard, now and in the future.”
http://www.deltacommissaris.nl/english/
Quite revolutionary:
– Integrated plan (combine functions and scales)
– Act now, and not after a next flooding disaster
– Long-term planning
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Delta Programme
– 3 Generic Programmes
• Safety
• Fresh water
• New urban developments and restructuring
– 6 Area-based sub-programmes
– Delta Commissioner and small staff
– 5 Delta Decisions in 2015
– Delta Law
– Delta Fund
– 2050 en 2100
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Scope is national
Rhine and Meuse models start at the Dutch border
– Water safety
– Low flow / drought analysis
Climate scenarios projections for future discharge regime Rhine and Meuse (models do include whole basin)
Possibility of cross-boundary flooding – not taken into account
Some interest now in upstream water use Rhine basin
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Conclusion
I am puzzled by the national scope of the Delta Programme
Strong belief in the design discharge, ignoring uncertainties, instead of debating how to deal with uncertainty in extreme discharge estimates (probability and volume)
Ignor
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Alle intellectuele eigendomsrechten met betrekking tot deze presentatie berusten bij Twynstra Gudde. Niets uit deze presentatie mag worden verveelvoudigd of openbaar gemaakt zonder schriftelijke toestemming van Twynstra Gudde.
Aline te Lindealn@tg.nl
www.twynstragudde.nlwww.deltares.nlwww.ivm.vu.nl