Exchange Circle on Flood Forecasting (EXCIFF) European ... · European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 11...

European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 1

European knowledge exchange on flood forecasting:European knowledge exchange on flood forecasting:

Exchange Circle on Flood Forecasting (EXCIFF)Exchange Circle on Flood Forecasting (EXCIFF)European Flood Alert System (EFAS)European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

Ad de Roo (ECAd de Roo (EC--JRC)JRC)


Exchange of flood forecasting experiences in Europe

● Bilateral contacts

● International water commissions (e.g. Rhine, Elbe/ICPER, Oder, Danube/ICPDR)

● WMO RA VI (Europe) – Working Group Hydrology, Flood Forecasting

● ERA-NET CRUE (research)

● 2003 >> present: EFAS (European Flood Alert System)

● Nov 2004 – 2007: EXCIFF (Exchange Circle on Flood forecasting)


● Initiated in Nov 2004 by France & JRCset up a European scale specific interest group of operational national or international forecasting centres or agencies (including both meteorological and hydrological aspects)

● Proposed to Water Directors meeting

● Launched in Dec 2004

● 1st of the exchange circles dedicated to flood management topics

● Part of the initiative of the European Commission for an Action programme on flood management–Action 1: improving the exchange of information

● Co-chaired by France & JRC:– Frédérique Martini (France, MEDD)– Ad de Roo (EC, DG JRC)

EXCIFF history


● Facilitate a platform to exchange practical experience in operational flood forecasting, driven by a need for exchange of information, approaches and technical knowledge between European countries– complimentary to DG RTD initiatives such as ACTIF

● Review state-of-play of flood forecasting in Europe

● Feedback forum of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

● Identify needs and gaps

● Identify the most important fields to work on in order to improve our know-how

● Propose common concrete actions

EXCIFF: aims


● 22 Members states or Agencies● 31 operational centres or organisations (hydrological,

meteorological)● 43 focal points

EXCIFF: membership


● Jan 2005: Questionnaire of information collection● Feb 2005 1st workshop (Toulouse)

Synthesis report & CD● Apr 2005 1st newsletter● Nov 2005 2nd newsletter● Jan 2006 2nd workshop (Ispra)

» Flood forecasting of plain floods (EFAS+HU)» Flood forecasting of flash floods (FR)» Flood forecasting of coastal floods (NL)

● Feb 2006 Establishment of EXCIFF website● Apr 2006 3rd newsletter● Mrc-Nov 2006 several sessions “GP” report● Apr 2007 inventory for future actions meeting● May 2007 publication of “GP” report

EXCIFF activities


● Action 6C - Implement a EXCIFF Internet site/portal• http://exciff.jrc.ec.europa.eu/• facilitate exchange between FF actors• Established at JRC in summer 2006

● Action 5C - Work on “flood forecasting information for the general public”

• Aim: write a guide of «good practice for flood-relatedinformation to the general public

• Established by Drafting team with members from: DE, SE, FI, FR, IT, NL, UK, published May 2007

● Action 3C - Organise exchange of methods between EXCIFF countries on flood forecasting (modelling / experience / organisation)

• Workshop Jan 2006

EXCIFF: achievements


Guide printed

May 2007

Available:

EXCIFF website:http://exciff.jrc.it

Email: [email protected]


http://exciff.jrc.ec.europa.eu/


EXCIFF: way forward

● 2007: WG-F Floods Directive: shift from exchange circles to dedicated workshops● EFAS already organises such workshops, as is WMO-hydro FF group-> EXCIFF put on hold

● Remaining ideas:– Organise collective training for flood forecasters

• Specific catchment behaviour• the modelling and forecasting process

– Explore “hydrological data quality standard” and “hydrological data exchange standard”

– Express to the meteorological community a need for agreement between hydrological and meteorological communities concerning (cross-border) use and exchange ofmeteorological data

– practical experiences with probabilistic forecasting and its dissemination (including experiences with the European Flood Alert System, EFAS)

– possibilities for improved flash flood forecasting– regular information exchange of flood forecasting services– training of flood forecasters (continuous and self training)– how will the job of a flood forecasters look like in 5 or 10 years?– possibilities and needs for improved plain flood forecasting– future research needs in flood forecasting– frequent presentations and information exchange on European and national research

projects with practical applications in flood forecasting (link to ERANET CRUE ??)


EFAS: European Flood Alert System

● Focus:– Transboundary river systems– Forecasts beyond 48 hours (early warning)– Probabilistic approach

• Complimentary to NHS systems

● Dissemination:– National and Regional Hydrological Services (NHS)

• Responsible for national flood warning and triggering Civil Protection– EFAS is used here to alert competent staff of NHS

– MIC (simplified info on extreme floods only)• Preparation of aid operations• Only in case of extreme disasters where MS request assistance

– EFAS can be used here to make first preparations of aid operations, to be able to respond faster to MS requests during the crisis


Currently 25 National Organisations informed

Expert Knowledge of Member States

Expert Knowledge of Member States

Meteo - Data

EU Flood GIS

Europ. Data Layers

Realtime H-Q data

Historical Data

Static Data

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Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague

Hydro & Meteo Data LISFLOOD hydrological model

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EFAS online websiteEFAS online website

Flood Simulations

European Flood Alert System


European Flood Alert System (EFAS)Complementing Member States

● extend warning time > 3 days by using multiple weather forecasts including weather ensembles (EPS):– 1 ECMWF deterministic 15days– 51 ECMWF ensembles 15 days– 1 DWD deterministic 7 days– 15 COSMO-LEPS ensembles 5

days● forecasting for entire river basins and

the whole of Europe● information exchange platform for

operational services:– Training on new methodologies

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35002006 spring floods in the Elbe, Station Dresden

Days starting at 15th March 2006

Q in

m3 /s

4th Apr 2006EFAS Severe threshold

EFAS High threshold

EFAS medium threshold


EFAS: training & feedbackGeneral framework

Users• needs• local interpretation• decision making

Forecasts• Visualization• Probabilistic results

Forecasting System

• aims• set up & development • model strengths andlimitations

(1/2)


An on-line system that gives an overview where

floods are predicted in the next days.

Accessible 24/7

EFAS


EFAS on-line interface

Romania

Poland

HungaryAustria

Czech Rep.

Slovakia

Bulgaria

SloveniaCroatia

Ukraine

Example: Hungary-Romania border

Users can zoom into the area of interest

where floods are predicted


EFAS onlineUsers can click on a location of interest,

to see for which day the flood is predicted

and how severe it might be

In this example, forecast made on 25 February,

a small flood is predicted for 2/3 March


August 2005 flood, CH/AT/DE


Days when flooding was going on Prague:March 2006 flood


>> DG-ENV MIC: EFAS based simplified early flood warnings

● Dark red dots:– Flood forecasted for

3-5 days from now● Light red dots:

– Flood forecasted for 6-8 days from now

● Grey dots:– Flood forecasted for

9+ days from now● Links to National

Websites & Authorities will be provided

5 : Prut: flood predicted for the river Prut in country Romania.Flood predicted to start D+6: 2008-10-01. Date of forecast: 2008-09-25 00:00National point of contact: Mr/Mrs XXXemail: [email protected] http://www.rowater.ro


>> DG ENV-MIC & public:Ongoing floods overview

5 : Naab: flood ongoing in river Naab, Danube, upper basin in country Germany.Last observed waterlevel exceeds National Alert Level 2. Date of last observation: 2008-10-08T09:00:00+01:00National website: http://www.nationalsite.de

Sources:● Red dots (actual

measurements):– ETN-R realtime river data

(with GRDC, Koblenz)– Webscraping

(JRC)● Grey dots:

– EFAS estimations(JRC)

● Links to National Websites & Authorities will be provided


EFAS performance

● EFAS alerts in 70-80% of the cases ‘correct’– more or less right place, time, and magnitude

● False alerts are less harmful in this time-range– Are even appreciated by national staff (if not too

frequent): Help national staff to be alerted– Are without costs (contrary to public alerts, evacuation

etc.)

● Obviously, false alerts should be avoided as much as possible– Consistency & Persistency criterium in EFAS


The Way Forward

● Today EFAS is in a research pre-operational phase. It is planned to be officially operational by ~2011 (GMES, DG ENV, JRC?)

● Currently, a number of countries have shown interest in running an operational EFAS:– SMHI (SE)– SMHU (SK)– Waterdienst (RIZA) (NL)– APAT (IT)– ECMWF– JRC

● EFAS will be run at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) until then; JRC has also interest in running it operationally itself

● EFAS is already part of the ICPDR Danube Flood Action Plan, as one of the measures implemented; also linked to the Elbe-IKSE Action Plan

● EFAS might be part of other Flood Action Plans, made in the framework of the EU Flood Directive

● EFAS public info and all sorts of European Flood information can be found on the JRC Floods portalhttp://floods.jrc.ec.europa.eu/


[email protected] http://floods.jrc.ec.europa.eu(http://exciff.jrc.ec.europa.eu)

Thank you !

Exchange Circle on Flood Forecasting (EXCIFF) European ... · European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 11...

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