124UniversityAvenue,2ndFloor

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TechnologyHorizonsProgram

www.iftf.org

November2011|SR-1454B

CONTRIBUTORS:

Author: Jake Dunagan, Lyn Jeffery, Devin Fidler, Rachel Maguire

Editor: Nicole Tindall

Art Direction and Design: IFTF Production Team

SR-1454B©2011InstitutefortheFuture.Allrightsreserved.Allbrandsandtrademarksremainthepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.Reproductionisprohibitedwithoutwrittenconsent.

about the …

TeChNOlOgy hORIzONS PROgRamTheTechnologyHorizonsProgramcombinesadeepunderstandingoftechnologyandsocietalforcestoidentifyandevaluatediscontinuitiesandinnovationsinthenextthreetotenyears.Ourapproachtotechnologyforecastingisunique—weputpeopleatthecenterofourforecasts.Understandinghumansasconsumers,workers,householders,andcommunitymembersallowsIFTFtohelpcompanieslookbeyondtechnicalfeasibilitytoidentifythevalueinnewtechnologies,forecastadoptionanddiffusionpatterns,anddiscovernewmarketopportunitiesandthreats.

INSTITUTe fOR The fUTUReTheInstitutefortheFutureisanindependent,nonprofitstrategicresearchgroupwithmorethan40yearsofforecastingexperience.Thecoreofourworkisidentifyingemergingtrendsanddiscontinuitiesthatwilltransformglobalsocietyandtheglobalmarketplace.Weprovideourmemberswithinsightsintobusinessstrategy,designprocess,innovation,andsocialdilemmas.Ourresearchspansabroadterritoryofdeeplytransformativetrends,fromhealthandhealthcaretotechnology,theworkplace,andhumanidentity.TheInstitutefortheFutureislocatedinPaloAlto,California.

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CONTENTS

Introduction: TheMagicofKids’Technology 1 TheGreatestResource 2 DriversofChange 2

1 The Future of Kids’ Play:Cross-dimensionalPlaygrounds 5 ChangingContextsforPlay 5 Forecast:ActivatableSurfaces 6 Forecast:EmotionalToys 7 Forecast:AuthoringforFun 8 Implications 9 ArtifactfromtheFuture:HeartBook 10

2 The Future of Kids’ Health:AMatrixofWell-Being 13 ChangingContextsforHealth 13 Forecast:HealthRisksBecomeVisible 14 Forecast:UnlockingNewVoices 15 Forecast:SegmentingScreenTime 16 Implications 17 ArtifactfromtheFuture:DollofDuty 18

3 The Future of Kids’ Safety: High-tech“GuardianAngels” 21 ChangingContextsforSafetyandSecurity 21 Forecast:Kid-mapping 22 Forecast:BacklashAgainst“TheBubble” 24 Forecast:BlendedReality—SeparateWorlds 26 Implications 27 ArtifactfromtheFuture:GuardianAngel 28

CONTENTS (CONT’d)

4 The Future of Kids’ Learning:LearningtoAdapt 31 ChangingContextsForLearning 31 Forecast:AmplifyingtheClassroom 33 Forecast:De-occupytheClassroom 34 Forecast:ComputationalThinkingasNewMath 36 Implications 37 ArtifactfromtheFuture:AdaptaPal 38

5 Conclusion: SixBigStories 41 MagicWandsAccelerateGratifications 42 TotalKidAwareness:ADilemma 43 Juvenoia:TheComingKidularity? 44 ProgrammableWorld—ProgrammableKids 45 The“Global”Child 46 EnchantedKids 47

End Notes 49

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INTRODUCTION:

ThE magiC Of kidS TEChNOlOgy

“any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

—Arthur C. Clarke

Magicplaysattheedgesofhumanperception—creatingathrillingdisjunctionbetweenwhatweknowandwhatwethinkweknow.Itthrillsbecauseitsuggestsabiggerworldwhilepointingoutthelimitationsofoursenses.Magicholdsaspecialattractionforkidsbecausetheyareconstantlyencounteringnewwondersandthespookyunknown.Childhooditselfisaprocessofnavigatingtheshiftingboundsofrealitythroughlearning,experience,andphysicaltransformation.

Thisreportexplorestheenchantmentsandcursesofremarkabletechnologiesthatareconnecting,empowering,andenvelopingkids.“Kids,”inthisreport,referstothoseslightlyolderthantoddlersbutyoungerthanpre-teens,thatis,childrenfrom3to10yearsold.Thecoreforecastsfocusonthesocial,technological,andcognitiveenvironmentsforkidsinthecomingdecade.Alsoincludedarespecializedforecastswithinfourcriticaldomainsofkids’tech:play,health,safety,andlearning,andasetofimplicationsforeach.Attheendofeachdomainsectionisan“artifactfromthefuture.”Developedwithateamofexpertsanddesignersatan“artifacturing”workshopheldatIFTFinSeptember2011,theseartifactswereimaginedandcreatedtoaddressspecificchallengesthatwillbefacedbykidsin2021.Theyaremeanttoembodymanyofthespecifictrendsandcriticaltensionsraisedintheforecasts.Theyshowhowtheseissueswillintersectandresonatewithtechnologicalinnovationsandnewproducts.Theartifactsarenotmeanttobepredictionsofactualproductsin2021,rathertheyserveasprovocationsforreaderstothinkthroughwhatachild’stechnicalenvironmentandexperiencemightbeinthefuture.

Achild’sworldin2021willbeacomplexplaygroundofempoweringtechnologies,invisibleprotections,stimulatingconnections,andshiftingprohibitions.Itwillbeamagicalworld,butthelinebetweenthemagicianandtheaudiencewillbedifficulttodistinguish.Theselineswillbedrawn,toalargeextent,bywhatresourcesareavailabletokids,andhowtheywillusethem.

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The gReaTeST ReSOURCeMuchofthehighemotionalpitchindiscussionsaroundkidshastodowiththeweightweputonthemtoperpetuateourvalues,systems,andevenhumanlifeitselfintothefuture.Childrenareour“greatestresource,”asthesayinggoes.Butpartofkidsbeingourgreatestresourceisnotjustbasedontheideathattheywillberesponsibleformakingthefuture,butalsothefactthattheyalreadyhaveintheirpossession,rightnow,someofourgreatestresources.

Time:Althoughchildren’stimeisbeingstructuredmorethanever,kidsstillhaveanamazingamountoffreetime.Theyarenotencumberedbyresponsibilityforothers,ajob,orahouseorcarorothermaterialpossessionsthatrequireupkeep.Kidscanspendhourstinkeringwithanewtoy,takingitapart,orlearningallofitsfunctionalitybytrialanderror.Kidscanknowadevicebetterthanalmostanyadultbecausetheycanspendmuchmoretimeengagedwithit.Invideogames,theycanfindallthehiddenmovesandsecret“Eastereggs.”Beingtime-wealthy,kidscanfindthesehiddenfunctions,orinventnewones,withinthetechnologiestowhichtheyhaveaccess.

Flexibility: Kids’brainsaresuperchargedtolearn.Mostofaninfant’smetabolicenergygoestowardbraindevelopment.Whilethepercentagedropsoffduringchildhood,akid’sbrainisamarvelofknowledgeandskillsabsorption.Kidscanlearnlanguagesatamuchdeeperlevelthanadults,theycanhearsoundsadultscannothear,theycanlearnnewskillsandfactswithincredibleacuity.Neuralplasticitymakesthefeedbackloopsbetweenmindandtheworldverytight,inturnmakingkidsresilientandabletodealwithchange.

Freedom: Therearemanykindsandlevelsofwhatwecallfreedom.Whileachildmaynothavefulllegalrightsasanindividual,kidshaveadifferentkindoffreedom:thefreedomfromlegacyfeaturesofearliertimes.Kidshavefewertiestothewaylifewasinthepast,andarelessweigheddownbythehabits,cultures,ideologies,oreventhescarsofhistory.Wetendto“feel”changeonlywhenitaccelerates:likebeingthrownbackinourseatwhenacartakesoff.Kidsarebornatthatspeed,andthesenseofaccelerationisnotasstrong.Kidsarecapableofshiftingbehaviors,changingtheirminds,rethinkingtheworld,andrespondingtothedriversofchangeinwaysthatmanyadultscannotorwillnotdo.

DRIVeRS Of ChaNge

EmbeddedComputationLow-costsensorsandcomputingchipsareenablingmaterials,objects,andotherartifactsinourworldtogenerateanddisseminatedataaboutthemselvesandtheconditionsoftheenvironmentaroundthem.Theubiquityofsensors,communicationnetworks,andsimpleprocessingintoeverydayobjectsandenvironmentswillunleashanunprecedentedtorrentofdataandcreateopportunitiestousethisrichfeedbackinthedesignofnewsystems.Thematerialworldwillbenetworkedandwillcommunicatevirtually.Machineswilltalktous,andevenmorefrequently,talktoothermachinestocoordinateactivitiesatascaleandlevelofcomplexitythatwasheretoforeimpossible.Embeddedcomputationwillmake“programming”objectsandenvironmentspossible,andcodingwillbecomeanecessaryskillandliteracy.Kids

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INTRODUCTION

comingofageintheprogrammableworldwillhavearadicallydifferentrelationshiptotheobjectsintheirenvironmentsanddifferentexpectationsaboutinterveninginthesystemsthatsurroundthem.

Super-empowermentAnaverageindividualintoday’sworldhasenormouspowerstoimpactothersatlocal,regional,orevenglobalscales.Muchofthediscussionaroundsuper-empoweredindividualshasfocusedontechnologiesandweaponsofdestruction,fromnuclearorchemicalweapons,totheabilitytohackanddisruptglobalcommunicationsnetworks.1However,therearealsoincrediblybeneficialandpersuasivepowerscontainedwithinahighlyconnectedandgeographicallycompressedworld.TheInternetisoneofthemostamplifyingtechnologieseverinvented,allowingindividualstoreachbillionsaroundtheworld.Ithasalsoallowedtherapidcoordinationofindividualactivitiesandeffortsatlargescales.Childrentodayarepluggedintoaglobalnetwork,oftenthinkingglobally,andhaveaccesstoarangeoftechnologiesthatextendthereachoftheirbehaviors.

PrecarityWhilecomputationandsuper-empowermentareenhancingandextendinghumancapacities,wehavealsocreatedaworldofincreasingvolatilityanduncertainty.Economicsystemsseemtobeteeteringontheedgeofcollapse,asunemploymentandinequalityworsen.Thesteadymarchtowardlong-termclimatechangewillbepunctuatedbyextremeweatherevents,strikingmorefrequentlyandfiercely.Thefossil-fuel–basedenergysystemwe’vebuiltourmodernindustriesuponhasashrinkingshelf-life,withnocheapandviableoptionsreadytoreplacetheoldsystem.Resourceshortagesandpoliticalunrestwillremainwithusfordecadestocome.Inthenextdecade,kidswillliveinaworldofcontradictions,withtremendousopportunitiesforadvancement,aswellasincreasingchancesofa“longemergency,”orevenacivilizationalcollapse.2

QuantificationManyofourbehaviors,movements,andevenbiologicalprocessescannowgenerateusefuldata.Whetherfromtheintentionaltrackingofmeasurementsandactivities,aspracticedbydevoteesofthequantified-selfmovement,orthemorepassivegenerationofdatathroughlocationservicesonoursmartphone,orthedigitaltrailswecreatewhenusingtheInternet,manymoreaspectsofourlivesareturningintoinformation.Andwithinformationcomestheabilitytogeneratestatisticalbaselines,norms,outliers,anddeviance.Applyingthesemetricstowhatwereonceinvisibleorunknowableaspectsofourlives,suchasemotions,pain,orday-to-daydecision-making,changeshowwerelatetothoseaspects,amplifyingourknowledgeandsuggestingnewplacesforintervention.

EvolvingChildhoodOurcurrentnotionsaboutchildhoodasadistinctandspecialperiodoflifemaybethehistoricalexception,notthenorm.Inearlyindustrialtimes,childrenwereoftenseenas“littleadults,”capableofhavingcareersandpositionsofhighresponsibility.Morerecently,childhoodhasbeenanextendedperiodoflearningandgrowing,explicitlyseparatedfromthe“adult”world.Thesedays,therearefewercanonicalresponsesto

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questionssuchaswhatachildis,whatchildhoodmeans,andwhenitbeginsorends.Youngchildrenarebeingtriedincourtsasadults.Kidsareparticipatingfullywithadultsinsocialnetworksofcommunicationandcreation.Yet,atthesametime,weseemtobeerectingmoretechnologicalandsocialbarriersforkidstocrossinordertoenterintotheadultworld.Tocomplicatemattersfurther,trendsofearly-onsetpubertyandothershiftingbiologicalresponsesarehappeninginanagewhenyoungadultsareextendingthe“childhood”stageandarereturningfromcollegeandlivingathomeuntiltheir30s.Thismish-mashofcultural,biological,economic,andsocialtrendsmeansexpectationsandnormsforchildhoodareupforgrabs,withfewhistoricalprecedentstoreliablyguideus.

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Children at play are the definition of freedom and exuberance. Butplayalsohasaserioussocialfunction.Inmodernsociety,playhasbeencastasfrivolous—atoddswiththeaustereneedsofformaleducation.Newtechnologies,media,andcommunicationformsthatattractyoungpeopleareofteninitiallycastigatedasdegenerate.Inlate-18th-centuryEngland,anewculturalformcalled“thenovel”wassaidtobesendingyoungwomenintomoraldecline.Morerecently,comicbooks,television,videogames,andtheInternethaveallbeenvilifiedforcausingmentaldecay,creatinganti-socialbehavior,anddistractingkidsfromwhatadultsthinktheyneedtobedoing.

Inplay,joycanbederivedfromnearlyanything,fromacardboardboxtothelatesttechnicalgadget.Kidsaredrawntoactivities,materialsandspacesthatenabletheirongoingexperimentationwithreality.Overthecomingdecade,thepurposeandstructureofplay(storytelling,building,role-playing,games)won’tchangedrastically,butthematerials,places,andspacesofplaywill.Smartdevices,animatedtoys,andnetworkedvirtualworldswillprovidemultipledimensionsforfuninteraction.Theeffectsofmulti-dimensionalplayonsocialrelationships,creativity,andsensoryengagementwiththeworldwillfollowkidsintoadulthood,reverberatingthroughoursocialinstitutionsandrelationshipstructuresfordecades.

ChaNgINg CONTeXTS fOR Play

OnlinePlay“Gooutsideandplay”isbecoming“Goonlineandplay.”Thechangingcontextofindependentmobilityispushingkidsindoorsandinfrontofscreens.Childrenhavelostmuchoftheirphysicalindependenceinthelastfewdecades,duetochangingperceptionsofdanger,newparentingnorms,andmorecar-reliantlifestyles.IntheUnitedStatestheOutdoorFoundationhasfoundanearly20%dropinoutdooractivitiesforkidsaged6–12since2006.Withfewerkidsoutside,therearefewerchancesformulti-ageplaywithlargegroupsofpeers.Askidsdolessexplorationandpracticeofself-controlandmasteryinphysicalenvironments,theyaredoingmoreinvirtualenvironments.

PurposefulPlayThereisgrowingparentalandteacheruncertaintyaboutfuturecareerpathsandeducationalmodelsfortheirchildren,especiallyinaworldofincreasingdividesbetweenthehavesandthehave-nots.Thisuncertaintyisoftenaddressedbyincreasedpressureonchildrentobehighachievers.Homeworkforpreschoolersisnolongerlaughable.Thesepressuresareincreasingdemandsfor“purposefulplay.”Purposefulplayrecognizestheneedforplay,butattemptstosmuggleinadditionaleducational,cognitive,social,orhealthbenefits.

The fUTURe Of KIDS’ Play:

CROSS-dimENSiONal PlaygROUNdS

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Singing fingers

ThisiPadapp,basedonatoolcreatedattheMITMediaLabin2008,turnsthescreen

intoablankpageontowhichsoundscanbecaptured,animatedascolor,andplayed

backbytappingandtouching.Source:singingfingers.com

aurasma 3D-I

Aurasma’s3D-Iisavisualbrowserthatusesgesturerecognitiontoallowpeopletoreachoutinfrontoftheirdeviceandinteractwithvirtualcontent.Theimageisfrom“Aurasma

Shootout,”demoedinSeptember2011,whereplayersusetheirfingertokeepa

soccerballoutofthegoal.Source:aurasma.com

fOReCaST: aCTiVaTaBlESURFaCES

Toca Boca helicopter Taxi

This“virtualtoy”allowskidstolookthroughthescreenofaniPhone,iPad,oriPodand

playwithdigitalcharacterstransposedontothebackgroundoftheirownhome.

Source:tocaboca.com

Formostadultstoday,touchingacomputerscreenisstillaremarkableexperience.Thepopularityofsmartphones,tabletcomputers,ande-readershasmadetouchscreendevices,andtheappsthatrunonthem,thetoysofchoiceforkids.Evenfortheveryyoung,directmanipulationthroughtouchisnowgivingtechnologicaldevicessomeoftheaffordancesoftraditionalplayexperiencessuchasasandbox,apadofpaper,agame-board,oramusicalinstrument.

Overthenextdecade,augmentedrealityandgesturalinterfaceswillexpandtheseaffordancestovirtual3Dobjects,allowingkidstoplaywithavirtualtoythesamewaytheycanplaywitharealone.Displayswillalsomoveoffofhard,boxydevicesandontoflexiblesurfacessuchasthefaceofafavoritestuffedanimalortoytruck.Insum,playwillbeamorefluidmaterialexperience,blendingthevirtualandthephysical.Kidswillhavemanyfunoptionstoexploredepth,sound,gesture,andimagesinthisblendedreality.

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1 | The fUTURe Of KIDS’ Play

fOReCaST: EMOTiOnalTOYS

lets Rock! elmo

Elmo’slatestincarnationcanplayanddistinguishbetweenarangeofinstrumentsandamicrophone.Healsoinviteskidsto

playbymakingmusicalongwithhim.Source:hasbro.com

my Keepon

MyKeeponisasmallyellowrobotwithsoftskinthatreactstotouch,detectsthebeatofmusicinitsenvironment,anddancesinrhythm.Developedtohelpkidswithautism

torecognizesocialcues,itcost$30,000andlivedinalabin2007;inthefallof2011itwasreleasedforlessthan$50asatoy.

Source:mykeepon.com

Toyshavealwaysbeenamediumforchildrentoexploresocialrelationshipsandemotions.Dolls,actionfigures,andtoyanimalsarethepropsofimagination.Andtoymakershavealwaysbeenamateurchildpsychologists,findingnewwaystomaketoysmoreappealingandemotionallyengaging.TheBebePhonographedolloflate-19th-centuryFrance,forinstance,hadacheapphonographimplantedinitstorsothatallowedittocry“Mama”;acenturylater,thetoyFurby,stuffedwithsensorsandelectronics,couldgiggleandspeakphrasesinboth“Furbish”andEnglish.

Overthenexttenyears,robotics,contextualcomputing,andtheneuroscienceofemotionswillgivetoysmoresupplenessintheirmovements,moresensitivitytotheir

immediatesurroundings,andmorecapacitytolearnaboutandrespondtotheirusers.MITprofessorSherryTurklehasbeenstudyingchildren’sshiftingattitudestowardcomputationalandrobotictoysforthepast30years.Inherlatestbook,Alone Together,sheplacesusata“roboticmoment”inhistory.Thismomentsignalsouremotionalreadinesstoattachtoinanimateobjects.Theseobjectswillprovidefriendshipandthe“comfortofconnectionwithoutthedemandsofhumanintimacy.”Sociablerobotswilldrawourchildrenintocaringforthem,nurturingthem,andcreatingmorepowerfulandeffectivehuman-machinepartnerships.

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Sissy’s magical Ponycorn adventure

Createdbya5-year-oldandherfatherduringaweekendgame-makingworkshop,

thisonlinegamehasgeneratedquiteabitofattention.Newmediatoolsallow

evermoreinexperiencedusers,includingkids,toproduceengagingmediaand

entertainment.Source:ponycorns.com

a Child’s first Recording Studio

InherfirstencounterwithaniPad,20-month-oldClementinetriestorecordherselfusingtheiPhoneStudioMiniapp

andaniPadpiano-playingapp.Source:cnetfrance.fr/news/quand-un-bebe-

decouvre-l-ipad-39751831.htm

Toontastic

Toontastic,aniPadapp,turnschildishstorytellingintoanimatedadventuresby

givingchildrenpowerfulbutsimplenarrativeandanimationtools.SinceitslaunchinJanuary2011,Toonersacrosstheworldhavemademorethan150,000cartoons.ManyaresharedonthesiteToonTube.

Source:launchpadtoys.com/toontastic/

fOReCaST: aUTHORingFORFUn

Drawingpictures,buildingforts,makingupstories,puttingonperformancesforfamilyandfriends:self-expressionforthesheerjoyofit.Today’schildrenhaveanexpandingarrayoftoolsandagrowingrangeofenvironmentsforsharingtheirplayfulcreations.Inthenextdecadeourtechnologieswillsupportnewformsofexpressionforkids,includingthepreliterateandeventhepreverbal.

Sophisticatedbutsimpleauthoringtoolswillmakeiteasierforkidstocapture,edit,andsharetheirinformalplayexperimentsinsound,color,symbols,andtext.Moreofthe“outputs”ofplaywillbedigitized,recorded,andtracked.

Children’smediawillincreasinglybecomeamatrixofinteraction,whereevenyoungkidscanuploadtheirownvoicesandartintoacommunityexperience.Childrenwillalsobesharingtheirworkwithlarge,evenglobalaudiences.Virtualworldsandsocialnetworkingsitesforunder-10saregrowingquickly—over400%since2009,accordingtoUK-basedKZeroWorldswide.3Thesesitesareoftenseenassafetraininggroundsforafutureofonlinecommunicationandcollaboration;theyencouragechildrentobuildcustomizedavatarsandpersonalvirtualenvironments,andtoengagewithAIcharacters,friends,andothers.

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1 | The fUTURe Of KIDS’ Play

ImPlICaTIONS Informal play more visible to third parties:Askidsspendmoretimeindigitalenvironmentsorengagingwithtoysandsurfacesthathavecomputationalpower,theirinformalplayactivitieswillincreasinglyberecordedandanalyzedbyfamiliesandthirdparties.Thiswillcreatedeeperunderstandingsofwhatchildrenlike,andpointtoopportunitiesfornewservicesandproducts.Itwillalsoamplifytensionbetweenparentsandprovidersaroundprivacy,marketing,andsafety.

Earlier and deeper mastery of new media skills through play:MalcolmGladwell’sbookOutlierspopularizedtheconceptof“the10,000-HourRule,”whichsuggeststhatspending20hoursofworkaweekonsomethingfor10yearsisthekeytosuccessinanyfield.4Inthenextdecade,many10-year-oldswillbe10Kexpertsatnavigatingvirtualenvironments;designinganddeployingavatars;andmulti-modalcommunicationviatext,graphics,video,animation,oronlinegames.Expertyouthvoicesandkid-authoredcontentarelikelytobecomemoreprominentinthepublicdiscourseandasproducts.

New world-interface expectations:By2021,kidswillexpecttobeabletotreatdigitalobjectsmoreliketangibleobjects,capableofbeingmanipulatedviatouchandgesture.Therewillalsobeablurringdistinctionbetweenscreensforwatchingandscreensforplaying,withlesstolerancefordumbscreensthatcan’tbeactivated.Smarttoyswillbe,inessence,sociablerobots,andchildrenwillexpandthekindsofrelationshipstheyhavewiththemviatouch,voice,andgesture.

New evaluation of face-to-face and remote experience:Face-to-facelivingisnotgoingaway,buttherewillbeacontinuedgrowthofsocial,play,andfunactivitiesthattakeplaceinvirtualspacesoverthenextdecade.Certainkindsofphysicalcontact,suchasplayingintheneighborhoodafterschool,arebeingcomplemented,orevenreplaced,bydigitalcontact.Growingupimmersedinvirtualworlds,socialnetworks,andYouTubevideos,childrenwilldevelopadifferentsetofexpectationsforevaluatinghumanproximityandpresence.Authenticexperiencewillincreasinglybemeasuredbyitspresenceacrosscomplex,immersive,multi-layeredenvironments.

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Child Persona: naOMiBorn: January2,2011(10yearsold)Location: BatonRouge,LA

naomi’sStoryNaomiwasanactiveandadventurouskid.Shelovedtoplaysoccerandgohorsebackriding,andespeciallyloveddoingthingswithherfriends—untilheraccident.ThreemonthsagoNaomibrokeherC2vertebra,leavingherparalyzed.Sheisnowconfinedtoabedorwheelchair.Recentadvancesinstemcelltreatmentofferagoodchancethatshewillregainfullmobility,butthetreatmentsandrehabilitationwilltakeseveralyears.Inthemeantime,herparentsarelookingforwaysshecanshareexperienceswithherfriendsinameaningfulway.Herfriendsstillvisit,butitisonlyforashorttime,anditisawkward.Naomijustwantstoplaywithherfriends,andNaomi’sparentsdon’twanthertolosehersenseofadventurebeforehertreatmentsarecomplete.

DesignChallengeDesignaplayexperienceforNaomiandherfriends.Inventorre-purposeatechnologythatconnectsandenrichesherlife.

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aRTIfaCTS fROm The fUTURe: HEaRTBOOkLIVE-STREAMINGSHAREDPLAY

Friendshipisaboutsharedexperiencesandsharedemotions.Inakid’sworld,wheredirectphysicalcontactwithpeersislimitedbydistance,rules,orthelackoftime,theHeartBookisagodsend.Originallydevelopedforparalyzedkidstoshareoutdoorexperienceswiththeirfriends,ithastakenoffamongallkids,andwasthemostpopularproductfor10yearsoldgirlsin2021.

WhyHeartBook?Heartbookworksbylive-streamingvideo,audio,andevenfeelingsofkidslinkedinasocialnetworkthroughawearabledevice.Nomatterwherekidsare,theycantuneinand“feel”thereal-timeexperiencesoftheirfriends.Itcanturnmerefriendsintotelepathictwins,achievingalevelofclosenessthatnodistancecandiminish.

1 | The fUTURe Of KIDS’ Play

always Connected

WithHeartBookyoucanremotelyjoin-inonyourfriends’real-lifeexperiences.

always Recording

Recordsallaudio-visualinformation,andevenemotionalstates,tosharewithfriends.

Custom heartBook Jewelry

DesignyourownHeartBookcaseandprintitoutwiththeHeart-O-Matic3Dprinter.

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Over the next decade, children’s preventive and therapeutic care will improve from advances in connected digital technologies.Innovativeparticipatoryepidemiologyandothercommunity-basedhealtheffortswillreframepreventivepublichealth,leveraginglightweightsensorsandvisualizationtoolsinordertomonitorchildrenconstantly,andatamuchmoregranularlevel.Onthetreatmentside,theintegrationofsmarttablets,mobiletechnology,andgamingdeviceswillprovidenewwindowsonchildren’sintelligenceandcreativity.Atthesametime,concernsoverexcessiveexposuretodigitaltechnologiesandscreentimewillmount,andoverutilizationofthesenewtoolswillbeseenasanavoidablehealthrisk.Intheend,parentsandprofessionalswillstrivetooptimizethehealthbenefitsthatkids’technologieswillgenerate,whilekeepingacarefuleyeontheundesirableeffectstheymayproduce.

ChaNgINg CONTeXTS fOR healTh

EmergingHealthissuesAfterpeakingin2003–2004,obesityrateshaveheldsteadyat10%forchildrenaged2–5,andjustunder20%forchildrenaged6–11.5Whereincidenceofdiseasehasnotstabilized,however,isinskinallergiesandfoodallergies,andinAttentionDeficitHypertensionDisorder(ADHD).Theseconditionshaveincreasedinchildrenoverthelastdecade,withskinallergiesandADHDbothaffectingaroundoneineverytenchildren.6TheprevalenceofAutismSpectrumDisorder(ASD)isequallytroubling.AccordingtotheCentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,iffourmillionchildrenarebornintheUnitedStateseveryyear,approximately36,500childrenofthemwilleventuallybediagnosedwithanASD.Fortypercentofthosechildrenwillnotspeak.7

TroublePayingforCarePrivatehealthinsurancecoverageforchildrenundertheageof18hasbeenonthedeclineformorethantenyears,whileMedicaidforthiscohorthasalmostdoubled.Althoughthisreshufflingactuallyresultedinadecreaseinthepercentageofchildrenwhowereuninsured,theamountandtypeofcareforwhichchildrenarecoveredalsodeclined.8Moreancillaryhealthservices,specificallythoserelatedtomanagingchronicillnesses,aregenerallyonlycoveredinprivateplans,andnotinmoststate-fundedplans.Healthreformwilllikelynotchangethisaccesstohealthcare.Withoutfinancialcoveragetohelppayforanincreasednumberofmedicalservices,parentswilllooktonoveltechnology-drivenapproachestomanagetheirchildren’schronicconditionsmorecost-effectively.Theseapproacheswillhelpparentsandempowerchildrenwithanarrayoftoolstounderstandandactonpotentialhealthrisksthatsurroundthem.

The fUTURe Of KIDS’ heaTh:

a maTRix Of wEll-bEiNg 2

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Q Sensor Curve

TheAffectivaQSensorisawearable,wirelessbiosensorthatmeasuresemotional

arousalviaskinconductance,aformofelectrodermalactivitythatgrowshigher

duringstatessuchasexcitement,attentionoranxiety,andlowerduringstatessuchas

boredomorrelaxation.Source:affectiva.com/q-sensor/

asthmapolis Inhalers

AtthecenterofAsthmapolisinhalercapsaresmallelectronicmedicationsensorsthattrackthetimeandlocationthattheinhalers

areused,andthensendthatinformationtoaremoteserver.Maps,charts,andtablesofthisinformationcanbegeneratedtorevealpatterns

oflocation,use,andtrendsovertime.Source:asthmapolis.com

Itisnosecretthatdust,pollen,chemicalsinfoodorintheair,andotherenvironmentalriskfactorsarethetriggersformanyofthehealthconditionsthatimpactchildrenandtheirparents.Inaddition,researchersarefindingthatasthmaattacksorallergicreactionsmayberelatedtostrongemotionsandstress,whicharefactorsthattheyhavealsoseenascontributingtobehavioraldisorders.

Asapreventivestrategy,pediatriciansandallergistscommonlyadviseparentstoeliminateoutbreaktriggers,monitorsymptomsand,forasthma,measurepeakflow.9Thisadvice,whilewise,isoftenverydifficulttoputintopracticeandoflimitedbenefit.

Overthenextdecade,however,awaveofnewtechnologieswillenableparents,researchers,andpublic

healthofficialstoperceivetheofteninvisiblerisksthatsurroundchildren.Asthmainhalerswillbeequippedwithsensorsthatwilltrackwhenandwheretheinhalersareused.Wearablesensorswillbeabletotrackhumanemotions,perhapsuncoveringsurprisinglinksbetweensocial,built,andnaturalsettingsandachild’semotionalwell-being.Furtherout,amorerefinedviewoftheriskssurroundingchildrenwillnotbelimitedtoexternalfactors.Embeddablesensordeviceswillallowparentstoviewtheirchild’sbiologicalsystemstounderstandhowfoodsandchemicalsareingestedandprocessed.Beyondthevalueoftheimmediacyofthisinformation,thedatacollectedfromthesedevices,whenaggregated,analyzed,andvisualized,willprovideamuchbroaderandricherpictureofhealthtriggersandrisksforchildren.

fOReCaST: HEalTHRiSkSBECOMEViSiBlE

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affdex

Affectiva’sfacialexpressionplatform,Affdex,useswebcamstohelpusers

recognizefacialmusclemovementsandequatethemwithhumanemotions.

Source:affectiva.com

Proloquo2go

Proloquo2Gisafull-featuredcommunicationsolutionforpeoplewhohavedifficultyspeaking.Itoffersnaturalsoundingtext-to-speechvoices,closeto8000up-to-datesymbols,powerful

automaticconjugations,andalargedefaultvocabulary.

Source:proloquo2go.com/About/article/ipad

Popchilla

AttheAutismCenterofPittsburgh,developerSeemaPatelisdevelopingan

iPadapplicationthatwillchallengechildrenwithautismtoidentifytheemotionsofa

robotnamedPopchilla.Source:autismcenterofpittsburgh.com,mygloss.com

/geek/files/2010/08/popchilla-300x210.png

Forsomefamilies,digitaltechnologieshavedonemorethanamplifytheirchildren’scuriosityandcreativity—theyhaveunlockedchildren’sabilitytoexpressthemselves.Digitalinterfacesareallowingindividualswithdisabilitiestocommunicateandexpressthemselvesinwaysunimagina-blebefore,openingdoorsformoreindependenceandmoreengagement.Non-clinicalmobileapplications,facialrec-ognitionsoftware,andgesturalandtouchscreeninterfacesarehelpingfamiliesandcaretakersdiscovermoreabouttheirnon-verbalchildren’sneeds,insights,andintellect.

Theportability,thesensitivityofthetouchscreens,andotherbuilt-infeaturesofthenewestdigitaltabletsare

gamechangersforpeoplewithdisabilities,mostnotablyforkidswithautism.AsjournalistAshleyHarrellexplains,“Whethertheyarehigh-orlow-functioning,childrenwithautismtendtobevisuallearnerswhogravitatetowardtechnologyandscreens.”10

Overthenextdecade,technologywillfinallystarttocatchupwithwhatchildrenwithdisabilitiestrulyneed.Consumertechnologieswillcontinuetoseepintothemedicalspace,andchildrenwithdisabilitiesandtheircaregiverswillrepurposetheminordertocommunicateandexpressthemselvesmorefreelythanbefore.

fOReCaST: UnlOCkingnEWVOiCES

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Differentiating among Computer Users

AlanKay,apioneerincomputerprogramming,design,anduser-interfaces

(UIs),iscurrentlydevelopinganeducationalUIthatwilllearnwhatkindofuseristryingtouseit.Therangeofhumanstylesandmotivationsisconsiderableandtaking

advantageofthemiscritical.Source:news.stanford.edu

exergames get Kids Off The Couch

Videogamesthatrequirephysicalactivity,suchasDanceDanceRevolution(DDR)andWiiBoxing,helpkidsburncaloriesandraisetheirmetabolicequivalent(anapproximationofhowmuchoxygenthe

bodyusesduringanactivity).OneversionofDDRusesthepopularMariocharacterto

specificallyengageyoungchildren.Source:konami.com

Concernsthatexcessivescreentimethreatenschildren’sbehavioralandphysicalhealthhavecausedtrustedauthori-tiesinchildren’shealthandwell-beingtoissueblanketguidelinesaroundkids’mediaconsumption.However,notallinteractivescreentimeactivitiesarethesame,and,withtheexceptionofviolentvideogames,littlein-depthresearchhasbeenconductedtounderstandthepotentialhealthbenefitsandlimitationsdifferenttypesofscreentimemayinvolve.

Researchhasdemonstratedthat“energyexpendituremorethandoubleswhensedentaryscreentimeisconvertedtoactivescreentime.”11Asaresult,interactivedigitalmediaisnowattheforefrontofpolicy,foundation,andcommercialinitiativesforchildhoodobesitypreventionandtreatment.Asexcitingasthesedevelopmentsare,otherbenefitstoa

child’sneurologicalandcognitivehealth,yettobediscov-ered,mayalsoresultfrominterfacingwithinteractivemedia.

Overthenextdecade,amoreprecisesegmentationofmedia,coupledwithamorehigh-resolutionunderstandingofthebiologicalandneurologicalfunctioningofindividualchildren,willhelpdeciphertheimpactthatscreentime—sedentaryandactive—hasondifferentchildren.PediatricdevelopmentalbehavioralhealthspecialistDr.MartinSteinnotes,“[I]ndividualbiologicalriskfactorsandprotectivemechanismsarelikelyinfluencingadversepsychological,social,andhealthoutcomesassociatedwithexcessivemediaexposure.”12Asaresult,mediaconsumptionrecom-mendationswillbetailoredtoindividualchildrenbasedonanumberofriskfactorsincludingthemediatypeandthechild’sbiologicalprofile.

fOReCaST: SEgMEnTingSCREEnTiME

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ImPlICaTIONS New measurements create new norms:Theintentionbehindtrackingchildren’senvironmentalsurroundingsandbiologicalsystemsistodetectpotentialhealthrisksandcurtailfuturediseaseoutbreaks.Yetgrowthinthetrackingandcollectionofmorepreciseandcontinuousdatawillalmostcertainlyleadtoanuncoveringofnewhealthailmentsandnewhealththreats.Andwhileidentifyingnewdiagnoseswilllikelysolveconfusionandfrustrationforsomefamilieslongstrugglingfromunknownhealthandbehavioralconditions,itwillalsospurnewbaselinesandnewnormalities.Determininggoodphysicalandmentalhealthwillbedependentonyetanothersetofmeasurements,resultinginyetanotheropportunitytomedicalizechildren.

Consumer tech blurs with medical tech:AfterthetrulytransformationalimpactApple’siPadmadeontheautismcommunity,theseparationbetweenmedicalandconsumerdevicesislessstraightforward.Thecapabilities,durability,mobility,and—nottobeoverlooked—thepricepointofconsumertechnologiesare,inmanycases,superiortodevicesregulatedasmedicaltechnologies.Asmorewearableandembeddedsensorsbecomeimportanthealthtrackingtools,thedistinctionwillbecomeevenmoreambiguous.Arepurposingofconsumertechnologiesatalargescalemaysparkinvestigationfromregulators,butitmayalsoopenthedoorformorecollaborationandpartnershipbetweentechdevelopersandthemedicalcommunitytocreatehighlyefficacioustech-enabledsolutionsforkids.13

Media becomes medicalized:Increasingnumbersofyoungchildrenwhocannottelltimeonananalogclock,swimindependently,ormaketheirownbreakfastcanuseamouseoratouchscreen,andnavigatetheirparent’ssmartphone.Inrecognitionoftheseemergingtech-enabledbehaviors,newmilestonesinachild’sdevelopment,alongwiththecorrespondingchecklistsandevaluations,willbegintobeintegratedintoroutinepediatriccare.Also,ifpediatricianshaveabettersenseofapatient’s“mediaconsumptionhistory,”theywillhaveabetterchanceatinterveningbeforeanyrelatednegativehealthoutcomestranspire.

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Child Persona: FRanCOBorn: July14,2014(7yearsold)Location: Emeryville,CA

Franco’sStoryFrancoliveswithhisMomandolderbrother(Jon,11)inasmallduplexinEmeryville,CA.Franco’sMomworkslonghoursandisrarelyhomewiththeboys.JonoftenhasresponsibilityforwatchingFranco.“Watching”consistsofplayingvideogamesorwatchingstreamingvideoontheirtablet.Lastyear,Franco’sFirstGradeteacherreportedFrancowashavingextremeemotionaloutburstsduringclass,andrecommendedthatheseeachildpsychologist.

Attheadviceofthepsychologist,Franco’sMomrearrangedherscheduletobehomeduringtheevenings,andenrolledFrancoinspecialclassesofferedbytheState.Thesedidlittletohelphiscondition.Finally,aspecialisthadFrancotestedforaparticularallelethatgeneticistsbelievecausesomechildrentobehyper-sensitivetovideogamesandothermedia.The“screengene”asitwascalled,madecarriersmoreemotionallyreactiveandbehaviorallyunstablethanthosewithouttheallele,evenwhenconsumingthesameamountandkindsofmedia.

Turnsout,Francodidhavethe“screengene,”andhisMom,hisdoctors,andhisteachersareimplementingsomechangesintoFranco’slifestyle.Thisincludeslimitingtelevision,andprohibitingallvideogames.Needlesstosay,Francoisupsetaboutthesechanges,andfeelsfrustratedandleftoutfromhispeers.

DesignChallengeCreateawayforFrancotohavesatisfyingmediaexperiencesthatareappropriateforhisemotionalreactivelevels.Strictprohibitionfromgamesandmediaisdifficult,especiallyintheworldof2021.WhatservicesortechnologiescanyouimaginethatwillhelpFrancoandthoselikehim?

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emotional Coaching

Asitlearnsaboutachild’sneurologicalandbehavioralprofile,itwillcuratemediaandactivitiestomaximizeemotionalandphysicalhealth.Usingthepatented“goldilox”application,itwillfeedcontentandmissionsthatarenotoverlystimulating,butnottooboring.

Personal Biometrics

DollofDutymeasuresheartrate,bodytemperature,stress,andeyemovementstocreatetheidealphysicalandemotionalexperienceforyourchild.

aRTIfaCTS fROm The fUTURe: DOllOFDUTYA21STCENTURYHEROTOKIDSANDPARENTSALIKE

DollofDutyislikeatraditionalG.IJoetoy,butonethatalsohappenstobeaphysicaleducationinstructor,emotionalcoach,andchildpsychologist.Itissoldasaphysicaltoy,butonceitisregisteredtoachild,theDollofDutywillcreateavirtualpresenceinakid’slife,showinguponhissocialnetworks,andpoppingintovideogamesorevenintohisaugmentedrealityfilters.

WhyDollofDuty?ThisAPA-approvedcompaniontoybothmonitorskids’mediaconsumptionandencourageskidstoengageinexcitingoutdooradventureswiththeirpeers.

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In the coming decade, kids will be video-monitored, geo-located, and physically protected more than anytime in history.Thecontenttheyconsumewillbeautomaticallyfilteredandspeciallydesignedtomaximizelearningwhileminimizingcognitiveoremotionalharm.Kids’interactionswithadultswillbecloselyregulatedandallowedonlyundercertainconditions.

Acoredilemmaformodernparentshasbeenhowtoprotectchildrenwithoutimprisoningtheminaprotectivebubble—howtoallowadventure,exploration,andfreedom,withoutundueriskoflong-termnegativeconsequences.Adultswillhaveincreasedcapacitiestocloselymonitorandintentionallydesignexperiencesfortheirchildren.Thesenewcapacitieswillallowparents,teachers,andlawmakersmoreopportunitiestointerveneinachild’senvironmenttoreduceriskskidsarelikelytoencounterastheygrowup.

Surveillanceandprotectivetechnologiesarealreadybeginningtoproliferate,butfaceabacklashagainstintrusivenessandover-protection.Asaresult,asystemoftechnologieswillemergeinthe2020sthatwillofferrobustmonitoringthatismostlyinvisibletothechild.Thesehigh-tech“guardianangels”willunobtrusivelyprotectchildren—lettingkidsbekids—andwillbecomemanifestonlywhenabsolutelynecessary.Parents,teachers,andothersstrivingforaworldof“risklessrisk”forkidswillusethisguardian-angeltechnologytoprogramordial-inanacceptablelevelofriskbasedontheirvaluesandperceptionofexistentialdangersintheirchildren’sworld.

Changing Contexts for Safety and Security

UbiquitousMonitoringSocial,demographic,economic,andtechnologicaltrendsaredrivingthepushtowardhigh-techguardianangels.Videosurveillance,digitaltracking,sensors,andmobiledeviceshavemadecontinuousknowledgeofachild’swhereaboutsandactivitiespossibleatareasonablecost.14Withthesetoolsavailable,thesocialandlegalpressureforparents,schools,andothercaretakerstousethemisstrong,andoftenirresistible.Whereasadecadeorsoago,asinglephonecalltocheckinservedasdiligentsurveillance,nowcontinuousmobilepresenceandconnectionisthenorm,evenforsmallchildren.

SmallerFamiliesBirth-ratesinwealthy,industrializednationscontinuetofall,meaningmorepeoplearehavingfewerchildren.15Withmoreridingonthesuccessofthesechildrenandless“roomforerror,”eachchildislikelytoreceivegreaterparentalattentionandsupervision.Parentsandsocietywilldomoretoprotectthesescarcer,andthereforemoreprecious,resourcesthantheywouldiftherewereanabundanceofchildren.

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MakingRiskillegalWhatwereonceprivatedecisionsaboutanadequatelevelofprotectionandsurveillanceofchildrenareincreasinglybeingmadeatbroadersocialandpolicylevels.Manyofthesearegenerallyacceptedascommonsense,suchasthemandateforuseofcarseatsforinfants,orbicyclehelmetsforchildren.Butnowwearealsobeginningtoseegreatersocietalpressuretomonitorkids’eatinghabitsandhowtheycommunicateonsocialnetworks.Thesocializationofrisk,andthesometimesexcessiveriskaversionofpopulation-widedecisionmaking,willpushthedevelopmentandadoptionofmorerobust,andmoreinvasive,monitoringtechnologies.

Ubiquitousdigitalconnectionandlower-costbiologicalsamplingandmetricshaveenabledthegrowthofthekidtrackingindustryandnewgovernment-mandatedidentificationdatabases.16ParentsareusingdigitaltrackingsoftwaretomonitorInternetuseinthevirtualworldaswellasoutfittingtheirkidswithsophisticatedmobiledevicesandexpectingfrequentphoneortext“check-ins”formonitoringinthephysicalworld.Insomeinstances,theyareinstallingpassivetrackingapplicationsinmobileandwearabledevicesthatconstantlyrelaylocationandotherdataabouttheirkids.

Inadditiontomobiledevices,parentsandschoolsareusingvideosurveillanceandevenradiofrequencyidentificationchipsinschooluniformstotrackkids.Continuouslocationdataandbehavioralinformation(forexample,whichschoolluncheskidschoose)canbegatheredbythesewearablechips.Privacyadvocateshave

raisedconcernsaboutthepotentialforabuseofdatawiththislevelofdetailaboutmovementandbehavior,butsomeschoolsarealreadyexperimentingwiththesetrackingprograms.

Parents,schools,andlawenforcementhavealsoencouragedthecollectionandstorageofDNAsamplesandotherbiometricdata,suchasfingerprinting,foruseincasesofmissingorkidnappedchildren.Combinedwithall-points-bulletinsand“AmberAlerts,”agrowingnetworkofdigitalandbiologicaldatacanbeutilizedtofindandidentifymissingchildren.Whilesharingthisinformationisnotmainstreamnow,theappealofhavingaccesstopotentiallyusefuldataincaseofthesekindofemergenciesispersuadingmanyparentsandschoolstopreemptivelygatherthisdata,andtoprovideprivilegedaccesstolawenforcementagencies.

fOReCaST: kiD-MaPPing

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RfID Tracking in School Uniforms

ContraCostaCounty,CA,Schoolshaveinitiatedaprogramtomonitorthelocationofstudentsbysetting

upanetworkofsensorsthatcantrackRFIDchipsembeddedinschooluniforms.

Source:thenextweb.com/us/2010/08/26/california-school-uses-rfid-tags-to-track-location-of-preschoolers/

fBI Child ID iPhone app

TheU.S.FederalBureauofInvestigationhasdevelopedaniPhoneappthatstorespictures,identifying

characteristics,fingerprints,andevenDNAinformation,whichcanthenbequicklysenttoauthoritiesinthe

eventofakidnappingormissingchild.Source:fbi.gov/news/stories/2011

/august/child_080511/child_080511

Wearable gPS Tracking Devices

Inadditiontodozensofmobiledeviceapplicationsthatuseinternallocationtechnologiesforpeer-to-peertracking,otherstand-aloneproductsareavailableas

well.ThePikavúlocatorusesaGPSdeviceembeddedinawristwatchwornbythechild.Aspecialreceiver

giveslocationinformationtotheparentorguardian,andthewristwatchcomeswithachild-prooflock.

Source:pikavu.com

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Technologies,laws,andparentalpracticesthatresultinchildrengrowingupinover-protectivebubblesarenotonlyaestheticallyorculturallyunappealing,butmayalsobeharmfultoachild’soverallsocial,psychological,andcognitivedevelopmentinthelongrun.

PsychologistEllenSandseterarguesthatforhealthyemotionalandcognitivedevelopment,“childrenneedtoencounterrisksandovercomefearsontheplayground.”Shenotesthata“childwho’shurtinafallbeforetheageof9islesslikelyasateenagertohaveafearofheights.”Theunknownriskismoreterrifyingthanonethathasbeenexperienced.“Ourfearofchildrenbeingharmedbyharmlessinjuries,”Sandseterconcludes,“mayresultinmorefearfulchildrenandincreasedlevelsofpsychopathology.”17

Asdanahboyd,anexpertinsocialmediaandyouth,hasobserved,“Thereareseriousconsequencestoimprisoningyouthuntiltheygrowup.”18Forboyd,overprotectionresultsinageneralreductionincreativityandexplorationoftheunknownbykids.This,byextension,couldresultinaweakenedcivilizationalcapacitytosolveourbiggestchallenges.

Inthecomingyears,wecanexpecttoseeagrowingbacklashagainsttheuseoftechnologytocreatebubblesofoverprotection.However,noparentorguardianwantstoleaveachildoverexposedtoriskeither.So,thedemandformore“invisible”protectionsystemswillgrow.Theadoptionofcompletelyubiquitous,ambient,buthardlynoticeablemonitoringandtrackingtechnologieswilltakehold,allowingparentstomorefinelymodulatetheriskstowhichtheirchildrenareexposedwithouthavingtokeeptheminprotectivebubbles.

fOReCaST: BaCklaSHagainST“THEBUBBlE”

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antiprotectionism

Findingtherightbalancebetweensafetyandfreedomforkidshasbeen,andwillcontinuetobe,astruggle

forparentsandguardians.Technologicaltetheringandprotectionwillbemoreavailablethanever,andaconcertedefforttokeepfreedomandriskinkidslives(to“reclaimchildhood”)willbenecessary,as

arguedintheserecentbooks.Sources:Tulley,G.Fifty Dangerous Things (You Should Let Your Children Do).Montara,CA:TinkeringUnlimited,2009;Skenazy,L.Free Range Kids, How to Raise Safe, Self-Reliant Children (Without Going Nuts with Worry).SanFrancisco:Jossey-Bass,2010.

acceptable Risk

Abacklashagainsttoomuchsafetyinplaygroundsisbeingseenincityplanningoffices.HenryStern,NewYork’s

ParksCommissionerinthe1990s,ledthefighttokeepplaygroundsfrombecoming“bowdlerized.”

Source:www.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/science/19tierney.html

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fOReCaST: BlEnDEDREaliTY—SEPaRaTEWORlDS

Kinect age Scanner and Content filter

MicrosofthasappliedforapatentthatinvolvesmodifyingtheKinecttobecomeasurveillancedevicethatcanscanbodiesinaroomtosee

ifkidsarepresent,thenfiltercontentaccordingtoage-basedrules.ThustheKinect(anddeviceslikeit)maybecomeamajorparental

controltechnology.Source:winrumors.com

/kinect-may-act-as-a-parental-control-body-scanner-in-future/

missouri “facebook” law

The“AmyHestirStudentProtectionAct”passedthisyearinMissouri,prohibitsexclusiveelectroniccontactbetweenteachersandstudents.Allcommunicationbetweenteachersandstudentsmustbeaccessible

toparents,administrators,orotherguardians.Thus,thishasbeendeemedtheFacebookLaw,becauseateachercannotcreateaone-to-

oneclosedcommunicationplatform.

AsbillsupporterandVirginiaCommonwealthUniversityeducationprofessorCharolShakeshaftargues,“Inthesamewaythatinaschool

wewouldsay,‘No,youmaynotlockyourselfintoaroomwithastudent,’thislaweffectivelysays,‘Noyoumaynotlockyourselfintoawebsite

whereonlyyoucangettothestudent.’”20

Unaccompanied adults?

Itisaviolationinmanyparksandplaygroundstobeanadultunaccompaniedbyachild.TwowomenwithoutchildrenwereticketedinBrooklynforeatingdoughnutsatabenchinapark.(Oneispicturedabove,accompaniedbyachildonalateroccasion.)Merecopresenceofadultsandkidsisoftenillegal,andthismodelofseparationisbeing

portedtothedigitalworldaswell.Source:gothamist.com/2011/06/06/ticketed_for_eating_a_doughnut_in_a.php

Digitalandphysicalrealmsaremerging.ThisiswhatIFTFcalls“BlendedReality,”theworldinwhichphysicalobjectsgenerateadatashadow,andwhereinformationisoverlaidontothematerialworld.19Withchildrengrowingupinthistechnologicalblendedreality,thetraditionalbarrierstocontactbetweenkidsandadults,andthesystemsofsurveillance,arefallingapart,andinthecracksgrowsuspicion,paranoia,andfear.

Thefearofthecominglingofkidandadultworlds,andwithitthefearofsexualassault,kidnapping,andemotionalharm,hasdriventhedevelopmentofsoftware-based

contentfilters.Contextanduser-awaresystemsthatcandeterminetheageofauserwillreduceprivacyforallusers,andcreatepotentiallylabyrinthineprocessesforadult-kidcommunicationandinteraction.

Inphysicalspace,themerepresenceofnonparentaladultsinaplaygroundorchild’sareaisenoughtowarrantlegalaction.Thismentalityisspillingoverintothedigitalrealmaswell.Newlawsandpoliciesattemptingtolimitdirectcommunicationbetweenkidsandadults,especiallyviasocialmediaspacessuchasFacebook,arebeingproposedandpassedmorefrequently.

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ImPlICaTIONS Risk management gets more complex:Managingriskforachildisconstantnegotiation,withadultsoftenmakingmercurialchoicesaboutwhenandwheretointervene.Evidence,research,andlong-termconsequenceoftentakeabackseattoshort-termuneasiness,irrationalfear,andpeerpressure.Withtechnologiesthatallowmuchmoreparentalandadultcontroloverachild’sriskenvironment,wildandunpredictableswingsintheapplicationofsafetyandsecurityprotectionscanbeexpected.Parentswillhavetheopportunitytotryoutahostof“child-proofing”toolsbeyondtheconfinesofhome,includingtechnologiesto“program”achild’sriskenvironmentwithmuchmoreprecision.Thefugitivelineofacceptableriskwillbemoreblurrythanever,fuelingphilosophicalandethicaldebates,andaddingthestressofcontradictoryexpectationstoparentsandcaregivers.

Protectionism reveals a paradox:Researchhasshownthatkidshaveanadrenalinethresholdthattheyattempttoreachbytryingriskybehaviors.Inotherwords,ifaplaygroundhaspaddedconcretesurfacesandfloors,kidswillsimplyclimbhigher,trymoreaggressivestunts,andsmashintothosepaddedwallsharder.Ontheotherhand,kidstendtoplaysaferwhenthereismoredangerousequipmentorconditionsaround.Wemayjustbe“uppingtheante”forriskybehaviorbycreatingmoresafetyprotections.

Adulthood reached by overcoming technical censors:Notionsofprivacy,transparency,andidentitywillchangedramatically,andkidsraisedinaworldofconstantsurveillancebyadultswillcometorelyonthesetoolstonavigatetheirworld.Lifewithoutmonitoringandreal-timecommunicationwithpeersandadultswillbescaryandconfusingformanykids.Technologicalgatekeepersforinformation,media,andphysicalspaceswillabound.Kidswillbumpupagainsttheseconstraintsintheirdailylives,and,askidsarewanttodo,theywilltesttheboundariesofthesecontrolmechanisms.

Authenticationandpermissioninterfaceswilltrackandlimitthefreementalandphysicalmovementofkids,forcingthemto“hack”theirwayintotheadultworld.Kidsmaycometoseetheirguardianangelsnotasbeneficentprotectors,butasprisonguardskeepingthemfromreachingtheirfullpotential.

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Child Persona: SYDBorn: February29,2015(6yearsold)Location: Toronto,Canada

Syd’sStorySydisa6-yearoldboywholikesdinosaursandairplanes.Helivesinthesuburbswithhisparentsandnewbornbabysister.Syd’sparentsarereputationcouncilorsandthinkofthemselvesasveryopen-minded,adventurouspeople.Theyvaluefreedomandpersonalexploration,andwanttoinstillthosevaluesintheirchildren.However,asSydgrewolder,theyfoundthemselvesbecomingmoreandmoreprotectiveofhim.Theyinstalledcamerastomonitorthenanny,theymadeSydcarryaGPSdevicetopre-school,andtheynervouslymanagedSyd’splaytimeactivities.NoticingSyd’sincreasinglytimidbehavior,andrealizinghowover-protectivetheyhadbecome,Syd’sparentbegantolookforwaystogivehimmorefreedomandtointroducemorechallengesintohisdailylife.ThesechangeshavebeenhardonSyd,whobecamedependentonhisprotectivebubble.Helikesthenewthingshegetstodo,butmissestheconstantpresenceofhisguardians.

DesignChallengeCreateadeviceorservicethatencouragesexplorationofone’senvironmentandhelpskidsseeknewchallengeswhilestillmaintainingsomeformofsecurity.Ideally,youshouldtrytodesignasystemthatwouldallowakidtobreakhisarm,butnothisneck.Thinkaboutthemosteffectiveplacestointerveneinakid’sworldformaximumsafetyandminimalintrusion.

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Biometric monitoring

Twowearable,networkedelectrodes,placedonthebackofyourchild’sneckmonitorslocation,includingstress,bloodpressure,hydrationlevels,bloodsugar,andotherbiofeedbackmarkersvitaltocreatingareal-time,customizedriskprofileforyourchildaccessibletoparents,teachers,orguardians.Ifachild’sbloodsugarislow,theyshouldn’tbeclimbingthehighestmonkeybars,andyou’llknowit.

feeling Risk

Butnotonlywillyouknowtheriskcontextforyourchild,ourunique“sixthsense”technologywillalsosendalightelectriccurrentthroughthedevicesonthechild’sneck,givingthemanartificial“hairstandingonend”feeling.Thiscluestheminthatdangerisafoot.

Programming Safety

Parentscanprogramthelevelofriskacceptablefortheirchild,evenincludingreal-timelocationdatafromthenationalsexualpredatordatabase,andanaccelerometerthatindicatesifachildismovinginacar.

aRTIfaCTS fROm The fUTURe: gUaRDianangElPEACEOFMINDFORPARENTS,UNTETHEREDPLAYFORKIDS

Howdoyouprotectyourkids,butallowthemenoughfreedomtoexplore,pushboundaries,andtakerisks?EntertheGuardianAngel.Thisamazingsuiteoftechnologiesdevelopsasixthsensefordangerdirectlyintoyourchild.

Whyguardianangel?Thissystemprovidesabalancedapproachtosafety,allowingachildthefreedomtoexploretheirenvironment,whilegivingparenvtsenoughinformationandcontroltoprovidepeaceofmind.

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4

Technologies to augment human learning are as old as language itself.Overtime,theseaugmentationsevolvedintothegiant,complexeducationalsystemsweknowtoday.However,thebasicinstitutionsthatshapelearningarenowpoisedforafundamentalreorganizationasmoreadvancedtechnologiescomeonline.Anewgenerationofinexpensiveandaccessiblelearningtechnologiesformeasuring,personalizing,andaugmentingstudentperformanceisreachingmaturity.Learningtechnologiesarespecificallydesignedtochangeminds,tighteningthefeedbackloopbetweenuserandtechnology.MarshalMcLuhan’sfamousobservationthat“weshapeourtoolsandthereafterourtoolsshapeus”resonatesmorestronglythanever.

Asyoungergenerationslearntheskillsdeemednecessarytothriveinthe21stcentury,theroleofeducationwillneedtobefundamentallyre-examined.Thisrethinkwillbethesourceofprovocative,andperhapsinflammatory,debateinthecomingdecade.Toaddresstheseemergingeducationdilemmas,assumptionsaboutthenatureoflearning,theroleofschoolsandaboutthenatureofchildhooditselfwillbesignificantlychallenged.

Changing Contexts for learning

learningaboutlearningOurtraditionalmodelofeducationislargelybasedona“onesizefitsall”industrialmodel.Todayhowever,neuroscientists,psychologists,andeducators,arecollaboratingtogainamoresophisticatedunderstandingofhowyoungbrainsdevelopandlearn.21Learningitselfcanbedefinedasapersistentchangeinneuronalfunction.Anewinterdisciplinaryfield,“neuroeducation,”isemergingaroundtheidealofdevelopingteachingmethodsandcurriculatobettermatchtheconditionsunderwhichmindslearnbest.Already,anumberofcharterschoolsandspecializedprogramshavebegunexperimentingwithgame-basededucation,newindividualperformancemetrics,andnext-generationpedagogicaltoolsthathavebeeninformedbythebrainsciences.Astheinsightsofthesefieldsaremorefullyapplied,theywillpressureeducationsystemstomovefroma“onesizefitsall”toa“oneneuronatatime”approach.

learningintheCloudComputingcapacitycontinuestoincreaseatthebreathtakingtrajectorydefinedbyMoore’sLaw,andisfundamentallychangingthetechnologicalbackdropofsociety.Asaresult,adecadefromnowkidswillhaveaccesstoaboutahundredtimesthecomputingpoweravailabletotoday’schildren—withpowerfulhandhelddeviceslinkedtocloud-basedsupercomputing.Withthismassivesurgeofinformation,andpowerfulsearchtoolsforaccessingthatinformation,theolddebateaboutwhetherweshouldbeeducatingforinformationorforcharacterwilltakeonnewmeanings.

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BigDataRelatedtopurecomputationalpowerwillbethegenerationofanalmostunfathomableamountofdata.Kidstodayaregrowingupinaworlddefinedbyanexponentialgrowthindata—theeraofbigdatahasbegun.Ninetypercentofthedataintheworldtodayhasbeencreatedinthelasttwoyearsalone.22Ciscoforecaststhattherewillbe50billionthingsontheInternetby2020.23Allofthese“things,”allofourdevices,andalmostallofusonplanetEarthwillbegeneratinganddisseminatingdataaboutourlocation,ourcondition,whatwearedoing,andmore.

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Pedagogical feedback loops

CarnegieMellon’sOpenLearningInitiativeembedsassessmentintoeveryinstructionalactivityandusestheresultingdatatodrive

powerfulfeedbackloopsforcontinuousevaluationandimprovementofstudent

performance.Source:oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/initiative

360˚ Virtual experiences

TheStarCAVE’sprototypeinstallationoftinycellularprocessesatCalit2(University

ofCalifornia,SanDiego)demonstratestheimmersivecapabilitiesofcutting-edgemediatechnologiesandtheirpotentialuse

aslearningexperiences.Source:whyfiles.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/

scimaxtheater.jpg

Evaluationof“learning”hastraditionallybeendonethroughaseriesofproxies:tests,homework,andperformancesthatletateacherknowthatastudent“getsit.”Now,classroomtechnologiesarepoisedtoprovidenewfeedbackloopsbetweenstudentsandteachersthatwillallowforlessonstobemorepreciselytailoredtotheactualcognitivestylesandlearningneedsofstudents.

Newmeasurementtoolswillalloweducatorstoknow,withmuchmoreprecision,howmuchinformationastudentisactuallyretaining,wherestudentsarehavingtrouble,andwherethegapsinknowledgearethatneedtobefilled.Forexample,usingcomputer-basedtesting,theywillbeabletotrackwhattypesofproblemsorassignmentstakeindividualstudentsarelativelylongtimetosolve.

Closelyconnectedtotheseanalyticsarenewapproachestopersonalization.Newwaysofconnectingteachersandstudentswillensurethatfuturelearnersexperienceaneducationthatisinteractiveandtailoredtotheirspecificneeds,levelofknowledge,paceoflearning,andlearningstyle.

Andfinally,asthedataflowsinvolvedineducationbecomemorecomprehensiveandvisualizationofthisdatabecomesmorecompelling,learningexperienceswillbecomemoreimmersiveand“full-bodied.”Studentswillbeabletovirtuallyexperiencenaturalprocessesandreenactmentsofhistoricaleventsininteractive,3Denvironments,insteadofjustreadingaboutthem.

fOReCaST: aMPliFYingTHEClaSSROOM

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Whileamplifyingtraditionalclassroomfunctionsiscritical,educationwillneedtoexperimentwithdeeperreinventionifitistomeetthechallengesofthecominggeneration.Thisreinventionmayinvolvechildrenhavingmoreindependence,responsibilities,andself-directedlearningopportunities.Itcanbetemptingtoimaginechildhoodasasacrosanctperiodofinnocenceandplay.Butthecurrentconceptionofchildhoodhasnotalwaysbeenthedominantwayofseeingthings.Peoplewhohavegrownupinindustrializednations,forexample,aresometimessurprisedtolearnthatjustafewgenerationsagotheBritishNavyroutinelyinducted10-to12-year-oldsasofficers.

If,asAlbertEinsteinoncesaid,“problemscannotbesolvedatthesamelevelofthinkingthatcreatedthem,”thentherewillbeapremiumonlearningsystemsthatensuretomorrow’skidsthinkverydifferentlythantoday’s.Newkindsofinstitutionaleducationmechanismswillemergetomeetthisneed.Technologieswillenablemoreself-

directedlearningandmoreflexiblescheduling.Beyondthis,promisingexperimentshavesuggestedthatrestructuringrewardmechanismsawayfromgradesandtowardmoregame-likerewardsandchallengesmayleadtoimprovedengagementandoutcomes.

Fromanotherperspective,however,tomorrow’sadultsmaythemselvesneedtothinkmorelikechildren.Thelearningthatwillbenecessarytoeffectivelynavigateinaworldofsuchstaggeringcomplexityisunprecedented.Whileitmayseemthatkidswillhaveto“growupfast,”itmaybemorebeneficial,infact,tothinklikeachildlongerintoadulthood.Indeed,theneurologicalplasticityandlearningstylesofachildwouldserveadultswellindealingwitharapidlychangingworld.ThemissionofMITMediaLab’sLifelongKindergartenProgram,forexample,istotakeinspirationfromthewayskidslearnandplayinkindergartenandapplythoseprinciplestootherlearningopportunitiesandaspectsoflife.24

fOReCaST: DE-OCCUPYTHEClaSSROOM

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4 | The fUTURe Of KIDS’ leaRNINg

Role-playing as education?

Experimentsinlearningmayopendifficultquestions,aswithKidzania,akids’theme

parkinwhichchildrenpretendtoworkinadultoccupations.Billedasfamily

edutainmentandlargelycorporate-branded,Kidzaniahasbeenfranchisedinovera

dozencountriesaroundtheworld.Source:kidzania.com

The future of Video in education

Theemerging“FlippedClassroom”educationalmodelusesvideoinplaceof

directinstruction.Lecturesarewatchedathomeandclasstimeisinsteadspenton

individualattentionandguidance.Source:knewton.com/blog/knewton/2011/08/29/

flipped-classroom-infographic

Teaching Digital Kids

QuesttoLearnisa6-12gradeschoolinNewYorkCitythatusesgame-anddesign-inspiredmethodologiestoteachimperative21stcenturyliteraciesandskills,suchassystemicreasoningandcriticalthinking.

Source:q2l.org/node/13

S i g n a l S

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S i g n a l S

Computational Thinking Without Computers

RoutingFruit?DevelopedbytheUniversityofCanterburyandsponsoredinpartbyCarnegie

Mellon’sComputerScienceforHighSchoolTeachersprogram,CSUnpluggedusesnon-computer

methodsandmaterials(suchasgames,puzzles,crayons,string,andlotsofrunningaround)toteach

youngchildrencomputationalapproachestotheworldinafunandfamiliarway.

Source:nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12840&page=24

Scratch Programming language

DevelopedbyMITMediaLab’sLifelongKindergartenGroup,Scratchisa

programminglanguagethatmakesiteasyforkidstocreateandshareavarietyof

interactiveprojectswhilelearningimportantmathematicalandcomputationalideas,aswellashowtothinkcreatively,reasonsystematically,andworkcollaboratively.

Source:museum.mit.edu/150/50

Inthenexttenyears,manydomainsoflife,rangingfrompoliticstothelifesciences,willbeshapedbythecontinuousproductionofmassivedatasets.Asaresult,schoolcurriculawillneedtochangetoreflectthegrowingdemandfor“computationalthinkingskills.”Kid-friendlyprogramminglanguages,earlyeducationinalgorithmicthinkingandlogic,andtechnologiesthatteachthefundamentalsofprogrammingvirtualandphysicalworldswillenabletoday’schildrentomeetthesechallengesoftomorrow.

Theinstitutionalizingof“computerthinking”willprovidethefoundationforteachingchildrenhigher-orderskills—problemsolving,creativethinking,logicalthinking,andsystemicexperimentation—thatwillallowthemtomeaningfullymanipulatethedata,andtheworld,around

them.Ascomputationalthinkingbecomesembeddedinhowyoungpeopleunderstandtheirlivesandtheirenvironments,itwillchangethewaysubjectssuchasthelifesciencesincorporateemergingdisciplines,likesyntheticbiology.

Computerscienceeducationisusingonlinelearningplatformstocapitalizeonthedesiretoteachcomputationalthinkingtoyoungerandyoungerstudents.Acombinationofinstitutionalsupportforprovidingaccesstomaterials,pervasivehigh-speedInternet,andfunctioningcommunitysupportstructuresaremakingitpossibleforprogrammingeducationtobeattheforefrontoftruee-learning.

fOReCaST: COMPUTaTiOnalTHinkingaSnEWMaTH

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ImPlICaTIONS Distributed learning creates a “school” layer on the world:Learningisbeginningtolooklikeaverydifferentprocessthanithasbeeninthepastandthecombinationoftheforcesdiscussedaboveultimatelybringstheveryideaof“school”intoquestion.Concentratinglearningintoasinglelocationwasinlargepartaproductofinformationscarcity.Bringingkidstogetherwasthebestwaytoefficientlyuselimitedmaterialsandteachingresources.Teacherscouldnotbeeverywhereatonce.

Increasinglyhowever,theycanbe—oratleastteachingsystemscanbe,andthedistinctionisacriticalone.Asthecomplexityofinformationprocessingsystemsbeginstorisetothelevelofbasiceducation,thetraditionalfunctionsofclassroomswillbeembeddedintheeverydayworld.Inthiscontext,“school”couldultimatelytaketheshapeofanembeddedlearninginformationlayerintegratedintotheworldatlarge.

Concept of “teachers” evolves:Teachingwillundoubtedlystillbeacriticalrole,aschildrenwillhaveaccesstofarmoreinformationthaninthepast;accesstomentorshipinhowbesttouseandprocessthiswillbeatapremium.However,thispointstoafundamentalbifurcationthatmaytakeplace.

Inaworldofubiquitousaccesstoinformation,employingpeopletosimplypassthisinformationenmasseontogroupsofstudentsisanawfullyconspicuouswasteofresources.Morethanever,peoplewillbeneededtohelplearnersaddressthequestionofhowbesttorelatetothematerialthattheyarelearning.Deepinformationcan,afterall,beoverwhelmingand“paralysisbyanalysis”wasalreadyrecognizedasaproblemeveninthecomparativelymeagerinformationenvironmentofthemid-20thcentury.And,ifweconsiderlearningasaprocessofchangingneurons,ateacher’srolemaybelessaboutimpartinginformation,andmoreaboutcounselingchildrenhowtolivewiththeircontinuallychangingbrains.

Ubiquitous access to information reshapes definition of knowledge:Thisgetsatperhapsthemostfundamentalquestionloomingoverlearningtechnologies.Inaworldwherenearlyanypieceofinformationisavailableatanytime,whattypesofknowledgeareactuallyworthabsorbing?Thequestionismorethanacademicinmultiplesenses.Afterall,learningtechnologiesareonsomelevelneuralprostheticsandqualitativelyshapeusers’learningpatternsinadditiontoamplifyingthem.Tothedegreethateducationisaboutinformation,itwillbedirectlyinthepathofthisprocess.

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Child Persona: DiEgaBorn: August23,2013(8yearsold)Location: London,England

Diega’sStoryBabyDiega,asshe’sknownaroundtheoffice,beganprogrammingforINSCOatage4,whenaptitudetestsqualifiedherforINSCO’spre-kcodingcurriculum.INSCO’sprogramwasoneofthemostrespectedandinnovativeintheUK,incorporatinggamemechanicsandneurolearningdesignintotheeducationexperience.Diegaadvancedquickly,andbygrade2shewastheyoungestgirleveracceptedintoINSCO’sprestigiousinternshipprogram.Intheprogramshereceivedadvancedprogrammingtraining,asmallstaffofassistantsforspecialclientprojects,andatrustfundshecouldaccesswhensheturns16(ifshestaysonwithINSCO).Diegalovestoplay,likemanyofheradultcolleagues,whotreatherasafellow,albeitsmaller,adult.INSCO’scampusofferscutting-edgegamingandsportsfacilities,andevenanaward-winningchefpreparingmeals.Sherarelymisseshome.

DesignChallengeKidsenjoyplayingadultrolesandmission-basedlearning.Inthefuture,theywillbeinteractingwithadultsandparticipatinginoccupationalactivitiesmorefrequently.

Designatooltohelpkidslearnthenecessarylifeskillsthey’llneedinthisworld.Helpkidssocialize,learn,andgrowinahealthyandproductiveway.

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aRTIfaCTS fROm The fUTURe: aDaPTaPalAFRIENDTHATGROWSWITHYOU

Withnetworkaccess,newtechnologies,andmoreopportunitiestosharetheircreationswithaglobalaudience,kidsareintegratingmorefullyintotheadultworld.Buttheymaynotbereadyforthedog-eat-dogworldoftheInternet,orevenacorporateoffice.AdaptaPalisafriendandguideforkidsastheynavigatethecomplexandmorallyconfusingwatersofaglobalized,adultworld.

WhyadaptaPal?AdaptaPal’slearningalgorithmscanhelpprovidekidswithamoralfoundationthatisinlinewiththeirparents’,community,orcompany’smission.Itcaninstantiateitselfasaphysicalorvirtualbeing,andlearnsalongwithitsuser,givingcriticalfeedbackanddecision-supportwhereappropriate.

growsWithYouAdaptaPalcantakemanyformsasachildgrows:fromafuzzybabytoytoacomicbooksuperherotoateenidol.Itcanmanifestitselfinphysicalformusingprogrammablematter,orevenasaholographicprojection.

4 | The fUTURe Of KIDS’ leaRNINg

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This report has explored the “magical” world of kids’ technology.Ithasexploredtheshiftsthesetechnologiesaregenerating,withmorespecificexaminationofchangesoccurringinfourdomains:health,learning,security,andplay.Withtheseforecastsinmind,wecandrawoutsomeofthebigstories—thebroadersocialimpactsandcriticaltensionsthatwillbeemergingoverthecomingdecade,andimaginethekindsofworldsthatarepossibleforthosewhowillbeshapedbythetechnicalandcognitiveenvironmentsonthehorizon.

Thetechnological,social,andcognitiveenvironmentsthatkidsconsidernormalandnaturalwillberadicallydifferentthanthoseoftheirparents,andmaybeeventheiroldersiblings.Thetechnologicalwizardryofthenextdecadewillenchantkidsthroughouttheirlives.Asthiscohortmovesintoyoungadulthoodandintopositionsofresponsibilityinsociety,theywillcarrycertainexpectationsofcontrol,interaction,feedback,andrelationshipsthattheyarelearningnow.Whatarethehabits,expectations,affordances,andrelationshipsthatkidswillcarryforwardwiththemintoadulthood?

5CONClUSION:

Six big STORiES

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Whatkindsofbehaviorswillemergewhendelayedgratificationisnolongeraproductoflackofaccessorphysicalbarriers?Willdelaysandbarriersbepurposelydesignedintotechnologiesandsystemsinordertocreatefeelingsofachievement?Howwillreducingthebarriersbetweenthoughtandactionaffectthewaypeopleexerttheirwill,andhowwilltheseintuitiveinterfaceschangeourrelationshiptomachines?

magIC WaNDS aCCeleRaTe gRaTIfICaTIONTechnologiesaredesignedtoreducethetimeandeffortneededtoaccomplishagoal.Theyworkbyreducingthegapbetweendesireandoutcome.Anaxeallowsapersontofellatree;agas-poweredchainsawfellsitevenfaster,reducingthetimetodesiredoutcome.Asthisgapbetweendesireandactionisreducedfurtherandfurther,thethingswewantwillbegintoalmostmagicallyappear.Newtechnologies,especiallytouchandgesturalinterfaces,areshrinkingthisgap.PresidentoftheParents’ChoiceFoundationClaireGreeneobservesthatwithtouchscreensachild’s“finger becomes a magic wand.”25

Kidsaregrowingupinaworldofinstantconsumption,ambientassistance,andconstantpersuasion.TheydonothavetowaituntilSaturdaymorningtowatchtheirfavoritecartoons,oruntiltheirparentsgotothebookstoretogetastorybook.Streamingdigitalcontent,downloadableappsfortabletcomputers,and3Dprintingmachinespointtoafutureinwhichkidsareabletoaccessvastmediarepositoriesandevenmakecustomtoyswithincredibleease.Futuresandboxeswillbefilledwithclaytronicmagicdust.26Coloringbooks,storybooks,andothercontentwillbedeliveredthroughdigitalapps,andasimpletouchwillturnareddigitalcrayonblue.Gestures,touchscreens,andcomputationalapplicationswillmakeakid’sworldadanceofdesire,withdigitalsleightofhandtransformingmaterialsbeforeoureyes.Kidstodayarealreadylearningsimpleprogramminglanguagesandareevenlearningthegrayartofcomputerhacking.27Inadecade,manykidswillbeadeptat“coding”theirdigitalandphysicalspacesforexecutableoutcomes.

Designinghigh-qualityengagementisoftenpredicatedonthesuccessfultuningofthefeedbackloop—providingawell-timedandappropriateconnectionbetweenadecisionoractionandtheimpactofthataction.Gameshavebeenlaudedasprovidingaveryeffectivetypeoffeedback.Ingames,aplayeralwaysknows,orcanfigureoutquickly,howcertainactionswillmovetheplayerclosertoorfurtherawayfromagivengoal.Manyofournewtechnologies,especiallyeducationandhealthtechnologiesforkids,providerichdataandreal-timefeedbackonactivities.Somuchso,infact,thatmostkidswillbeaccustomedtoreceivingconstantaffirmationoracknowledgmentofprogress.

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5 | CONClUSION

Overthecomingdecade,whatnew“magictricks”willbeattemptedtorectifytheconflictingvaluesetsandlogicalinconsistenciesofparenting?Howwillrisklessrisk,structuredunstructuredtime,andmanyotherseemingcontradictionsbeconfrontedandrectified,ornot?

TOTal KID aWaReNeSS: a DIlemmaThedefaultexpectationsforbothparentingandchildhoodingeneralarechanging.Traditionalbarriersandhabituatedresponseswillappearanachronisticinthenearfuture.Forexample,theamountofparentalmonitoringofachildhasbeendeterminedbytheboundariesofphysicalspace,thelimitedavailabilityofcommunicationtechnologies,orthecostoftrackingtools.Evenifparentswantedtokeepaneyeontheirchildallthetime,the“natural”barrierstothiswouldpreventit.However,withtheimplementationofamassivesocialsurveillanceinfrastructure(includingCCTVandRFIDtags),theubiquityandlowcostofsmartphones,andthepenetrationofsocialmediaintoourdailylives(whichallowsonetotracklocationinformationandother“digitaltrails”),thepossibilityofcontinuouscopresenceand“totalkidawareness”becomesrealformillionsaroundtheworld.Withthesetrackingtoolsinplace,whatwillthedefaultmonitoringsettingbeforparentsandcaregivers?Howwillpeopledealwiththesocialpressuretokeepaconstanteyeontheirkids?Whathappensiftheydon’t?

Thesekindsofpressuresandchangingdefaultsleadtouncertainandinconsistentresponses.Whenournormsandourtechnicalcapacitiesareoutofsync,passionatesocialdebates,newlaws,andshiftingpoliticalpartnershipsarise.Practicesalsoemergethattrytorectifylogicalinconsistenciesbetweenourvaluesandouractualbehaviors.

Forexample,inregardstothesurveillanceissue,manyparentsfeeltheneedtowatchandprotecttheirchildrenasmuchastheypossiblycan.Yettheyalsoknow,andresearchisconfirming,thatoverprotectioncanleadtopsychologicalandcognitiveharmtotheirchild,andtheywanttheirchildrentohavethefreedomtoexploreandtrynew(andsometimesrisky)things.Itispartofgrowingup.Theseconflictingurgesareleadingtoattemptstocreatewhatmightbecalled“risklessrisk.”Parents,teachers,andotherswillbedesigningtoys,playgrounds,andexperiencesthatgivetheappearanceoffreedom,butthathaveinvisiblesafetynetsthatwon’tallowakidtogotoofar.

Anotherexampleistheincreasingdilemmabetweenstructuredandunstructuredplaytime.Manykidstodayhavetheirdailyschedulesandactivitiesplannedoutextensively,withplaytimeincludedasalineitem.Freerecessesarebeingcutatschools,andmanykidsgostraightfromschooltoorganizedactivitiessuchasmusicorsports,insteadofthetotallyopenplaytimebetweentheendofschoolanddinnerathomethatkidsfrompreviousgenerationsexperienced.Butagain,theperceivedbenefitsofthisopenplayarenotlostonmostparents,whoaretryingtofindwaystostructureunstructuredtimeintotheirkids’routines.

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Associalchangecontinuestoaccelerate,dueinlargeparttorapidtechnologicalinnovation,howwilladultsandkidsdealwiththeseempowerment/enslavementreactionsastheyincreaseinfrequencyandamplitude?Wherewillbalancedresponsescomefrom?

JUVeNOIa: The COmINg KIDUlaRITy?Insomeways,society’sanxietiesaboutkidsmirrorthosewehaveabouttechnologies.Wecontinuetotryandimprove,advance,andintegratethemintoourlives,butwealsofeargivingthemtoomuchpower.Weprojectourdeepestfearsontotechnologyandontochildren.Wedesigntechnologiesandsocializechildreninwaysthatreflectourcurrentvalues,beliefs,andexpectationsaboutwhattheyaresupposedtobe.Wewantthemtohavesomeautonomyandindependence,butstill“knowtheirplace.”

We,asadults,fearthecontroltheymighthaveoverus,thatwemightbehelplessagainstthem.ThenarrativearcsofThe TerminatororThe MatrixlookverymuchlikeChildren of the Corn.Or,takeanotherpowerfulimageofthefuturethesedays,the“Singularity.”TheSingularityisonepopularnametodescribeaworldinwhichgreater-than-humanmachineintelligencebringsaboutmassivetechnologicalandcivilizationalchange.Thisaccelerationhappenssofastthatchangeitselfchanges,andwecannotevenfathomitwithinourlimitedhumanmindset.Accordingtomanyproponentsofthisidea,wewillmergewith,orbesurpassedbymachines,andlifeaswehaveknownitwillbeleftinthedustbinofhistory.

So,takingthekid/techanalogyastepfurther,one(onlyslightlytongue-in-cheek)waytodescribethesuper-empowermentthatnewtechnologiesarebringingtochildrenmightbecalledthe“Kidularity.”TheKidularitywouldbethepointatwhichchildrenhavemoreproficiencyandcontroloverthetechnicalinfrastructurethanadults.Kidswillthenexerttheirsuperiorwilloversystemsandinstitutions,radicallyalteringsocialpowerdynamics.

ThisKidularity,however,mightsimplybeacontemporarybottleforveryoldwine.Considerthisstatement,

Thechildrennowhaveluxury;theyhavebadmanners,contemptforauthority,theyshowdisrespectfortheirelders,andlovechatterintheplaceofexercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households.28

ThatquoteisbySocratesinthe5thcenturyB.C.E.!Thisfearofthetyrannicalcontrolthatchildrencouldhaveoveradultsseemstohavecycledthroughhistoryandintomoderntimes.Andthemannerandpaceofsocialchangehaveonlyamplifiedthistendency.Paranoiaaboutyouthandparanoiaabouttechnologycanresonatestrongly,creatingaviciouscycleofoverreactionandirrationalprohibitions.DavidFinkelhor,DirectoroftheCrimesAgainstChildrenResearchCenter,describesthe“exaggeratedfearabouttheinfluenceofsocialchangeonchildren”as“juvenoia.”29

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Howwillthehumanrelationshiptomaterialitychangewhenmatterandthebuiltenvironmentareprogrammable?Giventheincreasingrelianceonalgorithms,mightourchoicesandlifepathsbe“programmed”intousfromayoungagebythedesigndecisionsofplatformcodersanddevicemanufacturerstoday?Or,perhaps,havewealwaysbeen“programmed”bytheculturalinstitutionsandtechnologicalinfrastructurewegrowupwith?Willtheintentionalityofthisprogrammingmakeiteasierorhardertoresist?

PROgRammaBle WORlD—PROgRammaBle KIDSWhencomputationandsensingtechnologiesareembeddedintothehardwareofourbuiltenvironment,thematerialworld(andevenpartsofthenaturalworld)becomemutable,programmablemachines.Kidswillexpecttheworldtobeprogrammable.Onenolongerneedstobeanengineeroranarchitecttobuildanewbuilding,ifinsteadalltheskillsthatareneededinvolvecodingprogramstotellmaterialstoformintocertainshapes.Theseskillswillbeaccessibletopeopleatyoungerandyoungerages.Rapidprototyping,3Dprinting,syntheticbiology,claytronicsandotherinnovationsthatbridgethegapbetweeninformationandobjectsareblurringthedistinctionsbetweentangiblematerialsandcomputationalcodes.

Whenthinkingabouttheoverallecologyofperception,theprogrammableworldhasanother,potentiallydarkerside.Withuniversalcontentfilters,algorithmicrecommendationengines,persuasivetechnology,neuromarketing,andembeddedgovernancebuiltintoourdevicesandtheenvironmentsweoccupy,theideaofafree,individual,andautonomousdecision-makermightbestrangetokidsof2021.Peopleareoffloadingandautomatingmoreandmoreofday-to-daydecisionsandincreasinglyneedfilteringtoolsandbehavioralalgorithmstohelpnavigateaverycomplexworld.

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Howwillhavingaglobalaudienceaffectachild’sdevelopmentandidentity?Howwillthistrailoftransparencyfollowachildintoadulthood?

The “glOBal” ChIlDAchild’sperceptionofspace,time,anddistanceismuchmoreconstrainedandintimatethanthatofanadult.Achild’smentalworldisusuallylimitedtotheimmediatespacesandpeoplewhosurroundthem.Thismorelimitedhorizonisbeingchangedbynetworktechnologiesthatconnectpeople,includingkids,withothersallaroundtheworld.Ratherthanexperiencedefinedbyroomsandimmediatesurroundings,kidshaveanawarenessofglobalconnectivity,dimension,anddistance.Thisnotonlychangesachild’sperceptionofdistance,butalsoradicallyexpandsconceptionsaboutspheresofinfluence,andallowsachildtoconceiveofa“global”audiencefromayoungage.KidsnowlivemuchoftheirlivesontheInternet.Billionsofpeoplehaveaccesstotheimages,creations,andperformancesofchildren.Experiencesaresharedwithhugenumbersofpeople,andachild’sgrowthanddevelopmentcanbetrackedbyfriends,family,andothers.Thisglobaltransparencyandpublicperformanceofchildhoodisunprecedentedinhistory.

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5 | CONClUSION

eNChaNTeD KIDSThequestionsandtensionsthatemergefromtheforecastsincludedinthisreportwillbecriticaltoaddressasweimpart(orimpose)theworldwe’vebuiltontoourchildren.Adultsoftenperceivethatsocialchangewillbeamplifiedforthenextgeneration,andfearthatthenegativechangeswillbecarriedforwardforeverbythesekids.However,kidsareinsomewaysmadetodealwithchange,andmayhavemoretosayandmorepowertoinfluencetheworldthanatanyothertimeinhistory.Thatnewempowermentwillbetherealmagickidsbringtotheworld,anditmaybethemagicthatsavestheworldfromadults.

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1 Robb,J.Brave New War: The Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization.NewYork:Wiley,2007. 2. Kunstler,J.H.The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century.NewYork:

AtlanticMonthlyPress,2005. 3. www.kzero.co.uk/blog/q2-2011-vw-cumulative-registered-accounts-reaches-1-4-billion/ 4. Gladwell,M.Outliers: The Story of Success.NewYork:Little,BrownandCompany,2008. 5. NationalCenterforHealthStatistics.Health, United States, 2010: With Special Features on Death and Dying.Hyattsville,

MD:U.S.DepartmentofHealthandHumanServices,2011. 6. ibid. 7. CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,AutismSpectrumDisorders.www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html

(updatedMay13,2010). 8. NationalCenterforHealthStatistics. Health, United States, 2010: With Special Feature on Death and Dying. Hyattsville,

MD. 2011. 9. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001985/ 10. Harrell,A.iHelpforAutism.SF Weekly.August11,2010.www.sfweekly.com/2010-08-11/news/ihelp-for-autism/2/ 11. Lanningham-Foster,L.etal.EnergyExpenditureofSedentaryScreenTimeComparedWithActiveScreenTimefor

Children.Pediatrics(December1)2006;118,6.http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/118/6/e1831.abstract 12. Stein,M.T.,andStrasburger,V.C.Max:ConcernwithSocialSkills,LanguageandExcessiveTVViewingina3YearOld.

Journal of Developmental & Behavioral Pediatrics2010;31,3:S107–S111.doi:10.1097/DBP.0b013e3181d83173.http://journals.lww.com/jrnldbp/Fulltext/2010/04001/Max__Concern_With_Social_Skills,_Language_and.29.aspx.Accessed:August31,2011.

13. FDA.FDAOutlinesOversightofMobileMedicalApplications.July19,2011.www.fda.gov/MedicalDevices/ProductsandMedicalProcedures/ucm255978.htm

14. www.gfkmri.com/PDF/MRIPR_010410_KidsAndCellPhones.pdf 15. Sanyal,S.WorldPopulation:BoomtoBust?The Business Standard.July10,2011.www.business-standard.com/india/

news/sanjeev-sanyal-world-population-boom-to-bust/442131/ 16. DatabaseofAllChildrenLaunched.BBC,May18,2009.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/education/8052512.stm 17. Tierney,J.CanaPlaygroundbetooSafe?New York Times.July18,2011.www.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/

science/19tierney.html 18. boyd,d.TheUnintendedConsequencesofObsessingOverConsequences(orWhytoSupportYouthRiskTaking).

Apophenia.July29,2011.www.zephoria.org/thoughts/archives/2011/07/29/consequences.html 19. InstitutefortheFuture,TechnologyHorizonsProgram.2009.“BlendedReality:SuperstructingReality,Superstructing

Selves.”SR-1221.InstitutefortheFuture,TechnologyHorizonsProgram,2009. 20. Bindley,K.,andStenovec,T.Missouri‘FacebookLaw’LimitsTeacher-StudentInteractionsOnline,DrawsCriticismand

Praise.Huffington Post,August3,2011.www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/03/missouri-facebook-law_n_916716.html 21. See,forexample,Harvard’sMind,BrainandEducationMAdegreeprogram,andMind,Brain,andTeachingatJohns

HopkinsSchoolofEducation. 22. IBM.WhatisBigData?www-01.ibm.com/software/data/bigdata/ 23.MacManus,R.Cisco:50BillionThingsontheInternetby2020.ReadWriteWeb,July17,2011.www.readwriteweb.com/

archives/cisco_50_billion_things_on_the_internet_by_2020.php 24. http://llk.media.mit.edu/mission.php 25. Shuler,Carly.WhatHappensatAppCamp.June15,2011.http://www.joanganzcooneycenter.org/Cooney-Center-

Blog-155.html 26. CarnegieMellonUniversity.ClaytronicsProject.www.cs.cmu.edu/~claytronics/ 27. DefCon,theannualhackergathering,in2011includeda“kidstrack.”Ishizuka,K.LicensetoHack.School Library

Journal,October1,2011.www.libraryjournal.com/slj/home/892013-312/license_to_hack_kids_are.html.csp 28. Socrates,quotedin:Finkelhor,D.TheInternet,YouthSafety,andtheProblemof“Juvenoia.”CrimesAgainstChildren

ResearchReport,January2011.www.unh.edu/ccrc 29. Ibid.

ENd NOTES