Technology Horizons Program 124 University Avenue, 2nd ... · discontinuities that will transform...
Transcript of Technology Horizons Program 124 University Avenue, 2nd ... · discontinuities that will transform...
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124UniversityAvenue,2ndFloor
PaloAlto,California94301
650.854.6322
TechnologyHorizonsProgram
www.iftf.org
November2011|SR-1454B
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CONTRIBUTORS:
Author: Jake Dunagan, Lyn Jeffery, Devin Fidler, Rachel Maguire
Editor: Nicole Tindall
Art Direction and Design: IFTF Production Team
SR-1454B©2011InstitutefortheFuture.Allrightsreserved.Allbrandsandtrademarksremainthepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.Reproductionisprohibitedwithoutwrittenconsent.
about the …
TeChNOlOgy hORIzONS PROgRamTheTechnologyHorizonsProgramcombinesadeepunderstandingoftechnologyandsocietalforcestoidentifyandevaluatediscontinuitiesandinnovationsinthenextthreetotenyears.Ourapproachtotechnologyforecastingisunique—weputpeopleatthecenterofourforecasts.Understandinghumansasconsumers,workers,householders,andcommunitymembersallowsIFTFtohelpcompanieslookbeyondtechnicalfeasibilitytoidentifythevalueinnewtechnologies,forecastadoptionanddiffusionpatterns,anddiscovernewmarketopportunitiesandthreats.
INSTITUTe fOR The fUTUReTheInstitutefortheFutureisanindependent,nonprofitstrategicresearchgroupwithmorethan40yearsofforecastingexperience.Thecoreofourworkisidentifyingemergingtrendsanddiscontinuitiesthatwilltransformglobalsocietyandtheglobalmarketplace.Weprovideourmemberswithinsightsintobusinessstrategy,designprocess,innovation,andsocialdilemmas.Ourresearchspansabroadterritoryofdeeplytransformativetrends,fromhealthandhealthcaretotechnology,theworkplace,andhumanidentity.TheInstitutefortheFutureislocatedinPaloAlto,California.
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INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe
CONTENTS
Introduction: TheMagicofKids’Technology 1 TheGreatestResource 2 DriversofChange 2
1 The Future of Kids’ Play:Cross-dimensionalPlaygrounds 5 ChangingContextsforPlay 5 Forecast:ActivatableSurfaces 6 Forecast:EmotionalToys 7 Forecast:AuthoringforFun 8 Implications 9 ArtifactfromtheFuture:HeartBook 10
2 The Future of Kids’ Health:AMatrixofWell-Being 13 ChangingContextsforHealth 13 Forecast:HealthRisksBecomeVisible 14 Forecast:UnlockingNewVoices 15 Forecast:SegmentingScreenTime 16 Implications 17 ArtifactfromtheFuture:DollofDuty 18
3 The Future of Kids’ Safety: High-tech“GuardianAngels” 21 ChangingContextsforSafetyandSecurity 21 Forecast:Kid-mapping 22 Forecast:BacklashAgainst“TheBubble” 24 Forecast:BlendedReality—SeparateWorlds 26 Implications 27 ArtifactfromtheFuture:GuardianAngel 28
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CONTENTS (CONT’d)
4 The Future of Kids’ Learning:LearningtoAdapt 31 ChangingContextsForLearning 31 Forecast:AmplifyingtheClassroom 33 Forecast:De-occupytheClassroom 34 Forecast:ComputationalThinkingasNewMath 36 Implications 37 ArtifactfromtheFuture:AdaptaPal 38
5 Conclusion: SixBigStories 41 MagicWandsAccelerateGratifications 42 TotalKidAwareness:ADilemma 43 Juvenoia:TheComingKidularity? 44 ProgrammableWorld—ProgrammableKids 45 The“Global”Child 46 EnchantedKids 47
End Notes 49
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INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe 1
INTRODUCTION:
ThE magiC Of kidS TEChNOlOgy
“any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
—Arthur C. Clarke
Magicplaysattheedgesofhumanperception—creatingathrillingdisjunctionbetweenwhatweknowandwhatwethinkweknow.Itthrillsbecauseitsuggestsabiggerworldwhilepointingoutthelimitationsofoursenses.Magicholdsaspecialattractionforkidsbecausetheyareconstantlyencounteringnewwondersandthespookyunknown.Childhooditselfisaprocessofnavigatingtheshiftingboundsofrealitythroughlearning,experience,andphysicaltransformation.
Thisreportexplorestheenchantmentsandcursesofremarkabletechnologiesthatareconnecting,empowering,andenvelopingkids.“Kids,”inthisreport,referstothoseslightlyolderthantoddlersbutyoungerthanpre-teens,thatis,childrenfrom3to10yearsold.Thecoreforecastsfocusonthesocial,technological,andcognitiveenvironmentsforkidsinthecomingdecade.Alsoincludedarespecializedforecastswithinfourcriticaldomainsofkids’tech:play,health,safety,andlearning,andasetofimplicationsforeach.Attheendofeachdomainsectionisan“artifactfromthefuture.”Developedwithateamofexpertsanddesignersatan“artifacturing”workshopheldatIFTFinSeptember2011,theseartifactswereimaginedandcreatedtoaddressspecificchallengesthatwillbefacedbykidsin2021.Theyaremeanttoembodymanyofthespecifictrendsandcriticaltensionsraisedintheforecasts.Theyshowhowtheseissueswillintersectandresonatewithtechnologicalinnovationsandnewproducts.Theartifactsarenotmeanttobepredictionsofactualproductsin2021,rathertheyserveasprovocationsforreaderstothinkthroughwhatachild’stechnicalenvironmentandexperiencemightbeinthefuture.
Achild’sworldin2021willbeacomplexplaygroundofempoweringtechnologies,invisibleprotections,stimulatingconnections,andshiftingprohibitions.Itwillbeamagicalworld,butthelinebetweenthemagicianandtheaudiencewillbedifficulttodistinguish.Theselineswillbedrawn,toalargeextent,bywhatresourcesareavailabletokids,andhowtheywillusethem.
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The gReaTeST ReSOURCeMuchofthehighemotionalpitchindiscussionsaroundkidshastodowiththeweightweputonthemtoperpetuateourvalues,systems,andevenhumanlifeitselfintothefuture.Childrenareour“greatestresource,”asthesayinggoes.Butpartofkidsbeingourgreatestresourceisnotjustbasedontheideathattheywillberesponsibleformakingthefuture,butalsothefactthattheyalreadyhaveintheirpossession,rightnow,someofourgreatestresources.
Time:Althoughchildren’stimeisbeingstructuredmorethanever,kidsstillhaveanamazingamountoffreetime.Theyarenotencumberedbyresponsibilityforothers,ajob,orahouseorcarorothermaterialpossessionsthatrequireupkeep.Kidscanspendhourstinkeringwithanewtoy,takingitapart,orlearningallofitsfunctionalitybytrialanderror.Kidscanknowadevicebetterthanalmostanyadultbecausetheycanspendmuchmoretimeengagedwithit.Invideogames,theycanfindallthehiddenmovesandsecret“Eastereggs.”Beingtime-wealthy,kidscanfindthesehiddenfunctions,orinventnewones,withinthetechnologiestowhichtheyhaveaccess.
Flexibility: Kids’brainsaresuperchargedtolearn.Mostofaninfant’smetabolicenergygoestowardbraindevelopment.Whilethepercentagedropsoffduringchildhood,akid’sbrainisamarvelofknowledgeandskillsabsorption.Kidscanlearnlanguagesatamuchdeeperlevelthanadults,theycanhearsoundsadultscannothear,theycanlearnnewskillsandfactswithincredibleacuity.Neuralplasticitymakesthefeedbackloopsbetweenmindandtheworldverytight,inturnmakingkidsresilientandabletodealwithchange.
Freedom: Therearemanykindsandlevelsofwhatwecallfreedom.Whileachildmaynothavefulllegalrightsasanindividual,kidshaveadifferentkindoffreedom:thefreedomfromlegacyfeaturesofearliertimes.Kidshavefewertiestothewaylifewasinthepast,andarelessweigheddownbythehabits,cultures,ideologies,oreventhescarsofhistory.Wetendto“feel”changeonlywhenitaccelerates:likebeingthrownbackinourseatwhenacartakesoff.Kidsarebornatthatspeed,andthesenseofaccelerationisnotasstrong.Kidsarecapableofshiftingbehaviors,changingtheirminds,rethinkingtheworld,andrespondingtothedriversofchangeinwaysthatmanyadultscannotorwillnotdo.
DRIVeRS Of ChaNge
EmbeddedComputationLow-costsensorsandcomputingchipsareenablingmaterials,objects,andotherartifactsinourworldtogenerateanddisseminatedataaboutthemselvesandtheconditionsoftheenvironmentaroundthem.Theubiquityofsensors,communicationnetworks,andsimpleprocessingintoeverydayobjectsandenvironmentswillunleashanunprecedentedtorrentofdataandcreateopportunitiestousethisrichfeedbackinthedesignofnewsystems.Thematerialworldwillbenetworkedandwillcommunicatevirtually.Machineswilltalktous,andevenmorefrequently,talktoothermachinestocoordinateactivitiesatascaleandlevelofcomplexitythatwasheretoforeimpossible.Embeddedcomputationwillmake“programming”objectsandenvironmentspossible,andcodingwillbecomeanecessaryskillandliteracy.Kids
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3INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe
INTRODUCTION
comingofageintheprogrammableworldwillhavearadicallydifferentrelationshiptotheobjectsintheirenvironmentsanddifferentexpectationsaboutinterveninginthesystemsthatsurroundthem.
Super-empowermentAnaverageindividualintoday’sworldhasenormouspowerstoimpactothersatlocal,regional,orevenglobalscales.Muchofthediscussionaroundsuper-empoweredindividualshasfocusedontechnologiesandweaponsofdestruction,fromnuclearorchemicalweapons,totheabilitytohackanddisruptglobalcommunicationsnetworks.1However,therearealsoincrediblybeneficialandpersuasivepowerscontainedwithinahighlyconnectedandgeographicallycompressedworld.TheInternetisoneofthemostamplifyingtechnologieseverinvented,allowingindividualstoreachbillionsaroundtheworld.Ithasalsoallowedtherapidcoordinationofindividualactivitiesandeffortsatlargescales.Childrentodayarepluggedintoaglobalnetwork,oftenthinkingglobally,andhaveaccesstoarangeoftechnologiesthatextendthereachoftheirbehaviors.
PrecarityWhilecomputationandsuper-empowermentareenhancingandextendinghumancapacities,wehavealsocreatedaworldofincreasingvolatilityanduncertainty.Economicsystemsseemtobeteeteringontheedgeofcollapse,asunemploymentandinequalityworsen.Thesteadymarchtowardlong-termclimatechangewillbepunctuatedbyextremeweatherevents,strikingmorefrequentlyandfiercely.Thefossil-fuel–basedenergysystemwe’vebuiltourmodernindustriesuponhasashrinkingshelf-life,withnocheapandviableoptionsreadytoreplacetheoldsystem.Resourceshortagesandpoliticalunrestwillremainwithusfordecadestocome.Inthenextdecade,kidswillliveinaworldofcontradictions,withtremendousopportunitiesforadvancement,aswellasincreasingchancesofa“longemergency,”orevenacivilizationalcollapse.2
QuantificationManyofourbehaviors,movements,andevenbiologicalprocessescannowgenerateusefuldata.Whetherfromtheintentionaltrackingofmeasurementsandactivities,aspracticedbydevoteesofthequantified-selfmovement,orthemorepassivegenerationofdatathroughlocationservicesonoursmartphone,orthedigitaltrailswecreatewhenusingtheInternet,manymoreaspectsofourlivesareturningintoinformation.Andwithinformationcomestheabilitytogeneratestatisticalbaselines,norms,outliers,anddeviance.Applyingthesemetricstowhatwereonceinvisibleorunknowableaspectsofourlives,suchasemotions,pain,orday-to-daydecision-making,changeshowwerelatetothoseaspects,amplifyingourknowledgeandsuggestingnewplacesforintervention.
EvolvingChildhoodOurcurrentnotionsaboutchildhoodasadistinctandspecialperiodoflifemaybethehistoricalexception,notthenorm.Inearlyindustrialtimes,childrenwereoftenseenas“littleadults,”capableofhavingcareersandpositionsofhighresponsibility.Morerecently,childhoodhasbeenanextendedperiodoflearningandgrowing,explicitlyseparatedfromthe“adult”world.Thesedays,therearefewercanonicalresponsesto
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questionssuchaswhatachildis,whatchildhoodmeans,andwhenitbeginsorends.Youngchildrenarebeingtriedincourtsasadults.Kidsareparticipatingfullywithadultsinsocialnetworksofcommunicationandcreation.Yet,atthesametime,weseemtobeerectingmoretechnologicalandsocialbarriersforkidstocrossinordertoenterintotheadultworld.Tocomplicatemattersfurther,trendsofearly-onsetpubertyandothershiftingbiologicalresponsesarehappeninginanagewhenyoungadultsareextendingthe“childhood”stageandarereturningfromcollegeandlivingathomeuntiltheir30s.Thismish-mashofcultural,biological,economic,andsocialtrendsmeansexpectationsandnormsforchildhoodareupforgrabs,withfewhistoricalprecedentstoreliablyguideus.
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5INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe
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Children at play are the definition of freedom and exuberance. Butplayalsohasaserioussocialfunction.Inmodernsociety,playhasbeencastasfrivolous—atoddswiththeaustereneedsofformaleducation.Newtechnologies,media,andcommunicationformsthatattractyoungpeopleareofteninitiallycastigatedasdegenerate.Inlate-18th-centuryEngland,anewculturalformcalled“thenovel”wassaidtobesendingyoungwomenintomoraldecline.Morerecently,comicbooks,television,videogames,andtheInternethaveallbeenvilifiedforcausingmentaldecay,creatinganti-socialbehavior,anddistractingkidsfromwhatadultsthinktheyneedtobedoing.
Inplay,joycanbederivedfromnearlyanything,fromacardboardboxtothelatesttechnicalgadget.Kidsaredrawntoactivities,materialsandspacesthatenabletheirongoingexperimentationwithreality.Overthecomingdecade,thepurposeandstructureofplay(storytelling,building,role-playing,games)won’tchangedrastically,butthematerials,places,andspacesofplaywill.Smartdevices,animatedtoys,andnetworkedvirtualworldswillprovidemultipledimensionsforfuninteraction.Theeffectsofmulti-dimensionalplayonsocialrelationships,creativity,andsensoryengagementwiththeworldwillfollowkidsintoadulthood,reverberatingthroughoursocialinstitutionsandrelationshipstructuresfordecades.
ChaNgINg CONTeXTS fOR Play
OnlinePlay“Gooutsideandplay”isbecoming“Goonlineandplay.”Thechangingcontextofindependentmobilityispushingkidsindoorsandinfrontofscreens.Childrenhavelostmuchoftheirphysicalindependenceinthelastfewdecades,duetochangingperceptionsofdanger,newparentingnorms,andmorecar-reliantlifestyles.IntheUnitedStatestheOutdoorFoundationhasfoundanearly20%dropinoutdooractivitiesforkidsaged6–12since2006.Withfewerkidsoutside,therearefewerchancesformulti-ageplaywithlargegroupsofpeers.Askidsdolessexplorationandpracticeofself-controlandmasteryinphysicalenvironments,theyaredoingmoreinvirtualenvironments.
PurposefulPlayThereisgrowingparentalandteacheruncertaintyaboutfuturecareerpathsandeducationalmodelsfortheirchildren,especiallyinaworldofincreasingdividesbetweenthehavesandthehave-nots.Thisuncertaintyisoftenaddressedbyincreasedpressureonchildrentobehighachievers.Homeworkforpreschoolersisnolongerlaughable.Thesepressuresareincreasingdemandsfor“purposefulplay.”Purposefulplayrecognizestheneedforplay,butattemptstosmuggleinadditionaleducational,cognitive,social,orhealthbenefits.
The fUTURe Of KIDS’ Play:
CROSS-dimENSiONal PlaygROUNdS
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S i g n a l S
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Singing fingers
ThisiPadapp,basedonatoolcreatedattheMITMediaLabin2008,turnsthescreen
intoablankpageontowhichsoundscanbecaptured,animatedascolor,andplayed
backbytappingandtouching.Source:singingfingers.com
aurasma 3D-I
Aurasma’s3D-Iisavisualbrowserthatusesgesturerecognitiontoallowpeopletoreachoutinfrontoftheirdeviceandinteractwithvirtualcontent.Theimageisfrom“Aurasma
Shootout,”demoedinSeptember2011,whereplayersusetheirfingertokeepa
soccerballoutofthegoal.Source:aurasma.com
fOReCaST: aCTiVaTaBlESURFaCES
Toca Boca helicopter Taxi
This“virtualtoy”allowskidstolookthroughthescreenofaniPhone,iPad,oriPodand
playwithdigitalcharacterstransposedontothebackgroundoftheirownhome.
Source:tocaboca.com
Formostadultstoday,touchingacomputerscreenisstillaremarkableexperience.Thepopularityofsmartphones,tabletcomputers,ande-readershasmadetouchscreendevices,andtheappsthatrunonthem,thetoysofchoiceforkids.Evenfortheveryyoung,directmanipulationthroughtouchisnowgivingtechnologicaldevicessomeoftheaffordancesoftraditionalplayexperiencessuchasasandbox,apadofpaper,agame-board,oramusicalinstrument.
Overthenextdecade,augmentedrealityandgesturalinterfaceswillexpandtheseaffordancestovirtual3Dobjects,allowingkidstoplaywithavirtualtoythesamewaytheycanplaywitharealone.Displayswillalsomoveoffofhard,boxydevicesandontoflexiblesurfacessuchasthefaceofafavoritestuffedanimalortoytruck.Insum,playwillbeamorefluidmaterialexperience,blendingthevirtualandthephysical.Kidswillhavemanyfunoptionstoexploredepth,sound,gesture,andimagesinthisblendedreality.
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INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe
S i g n a l S
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1 | The fUTURe Of KIDS’ Play
fOReCaST: EMOTiOnalTOYS
lets Rock! elmo
Elmo’slatestincarnationcanplayanddistinguishbetweenarangeofinstrumentsandamicrophone.Healsoinviteskidsto
playbymakingmusicalongwithhim.Source:hasbro.com
my Keepon
MyKeeponisasmallyellowrobotwithsoftskinthatreactstotouch,detectsthebeatofmusicinitsenvironment,anddancesinrhythm.Developedtohelpkidswithautism
torecognizesocialcues,itcost$30,000andlivedinalabin2007;inthefallof2011itwasreleasedforlessthan$50asatoy.
Source:mykeepon.com
Toyshavealwaysbeenamediumforchildrentoexploresocialrelationshipsandemotions.Dolls,actionfigures,andtoyanimalsarethepropsofimagination.Andtoymakershavealwaysbeenamateurchildpsychologists,findingnewwaystomaketoysmoreappealingandemotionallyengaging.TheBebePhonographedolloflate-19th-centuryFrance,forinstance,hadacheapphonographimplantedinitstorsothatallowedittocry“Mama”;acenturylater,thetoyFurby,stuffedwithsensorsandelectronics,couldgiggleandspeakphrasesinboth“Furbish”andEnglish.
Overthenexttenyears,robotics,contextualcomputing,andtheneuroscienceofemotionswillgivetoysmoresupplenessintheirmovements,moresensitivitytotheir
immediatesurroundings,andmorecapacitytolearnaboutandrespondtotheirusers.MITprofessorSherryTurklehasbeenstudyingchildren’sshiftingattitudestowardcomputationalandrobotictoysforthepast30years.Inherlatestbook,Alone Together,sheplacesusata“roboticmoment”inhistory.Thismomentsignalsouremotionalreadinesstoattachtoinanimateobjects.Theseobjectswillprovidefriendshipandthe“comfortofconnectionwithoutthedemandsofhumanintimacy.”Sociablerobotswilldrawourchildrenintocaringforthem,nurturingthem,andcreatingmorepowerfulandeffectivehuman-machinepartnerships.
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S i g n a l S
Sissy’s magical Ponycorn adventure
Createdbya5-year-oldandherfatherduringaweekendgame-makingworkshop,
thisonlinegamehasgeneratedquiteabitofattention.Newmediatoolsallow
evermoreinexperiencedusers,includingkids,toproduceengagingmediaand
entertainment.Source:ponycorns.com
a Child’s first Recording Studio
InherfirstencounterwithaniPad,20-month-oldClementinetriestorecordherselfusingtheiPhoneStudioMiniapp
andaniPadpiano-playingapp.Source:cnetfrance.fr/news/quand-un-bebe-
decouvre-l-ipad-39751831.htm
Toontastic
Toontastic,aniPadapp,turnschildishstorytellingintoanimatedadventuresby
givingchildrenpowerfulbutsimplenarrativeandanimationtools.SinceitslaunchinJanuary2011,Toonersacrosstheworldhavemademorethan150,000cartoons.ManyaresharedonthesiteToonTube.
Source:launchpadtoys.com/toontastic/
fOReCaST: aUTHORingFORFUn
Drawingpictures,buildingforts,makingupstories,puttingonperformancesforfamilyandfriends:self-expressionforthesheerjoyofit.Today’schildrenhaveanexpandingarrayoftoolsandagrowingrangeofenvironmentsforsharingtheirplayfulcreations.Inthenextdecadeourtechnologieswillsupportnewformsofexpressionforkids,includingthepreliterateandeventhepreverbal.
Sophisticatedbutsimpleauthoringtoolswillmakeiteasierforkidstocapture,edit,andsharetheirinformalplayexperimentsinsound,color,symbols,andtext.Moreofthe“outputs”ofplaywillbedigitized,recorded,andtracked.
Children’smediawillincreasinglybecomeamatrixofinteraction,whereevenyoungkidscanuploadtheirownvoicesandartintoacommunityexperience.Childrenwillalsobesharingtheirworkwithlarge,evenglobalaudiences.Virtualworldsandsocialnetworkingsitesforunder-10saregrowingquickly—over400%since2009,accordingtoUK-basedKZeroWorldswide.3Thesesitesareoftenseenassafetraininggroundsforafutureofonlinecommunicationandcollaboration;theyencouragechildrentobuildcustomizedavatarsandpersonalvirtualenvironments,andtoengagewithAIcharacters,friends,andothers.
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9INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe
1 | The fUTURe Of KIDS’ Play
ImPlICaTIONS Informal play more visible to third parties:Askidsspendmoretimeindigitalenvironmentsorengagingwithtoysandsurfacesthathavecomputationalpower,theirinformalplayactivitieswillincreasinglyberecordedandanalyzedbyfamiliesandthirdparties.Thiswillcreatedeeperunderstandingsofwhatchildrenlike,andpointtoopportunitiesfornewservicesandproducts.Itwillalsoamplifytensionbetweenparentsandprovidersaroundprivacy,marketing,andsafety.
Earlier and deeper mastery of new media skills through play:MalcolmGladwell’sbookOutlierspopularizedtheconceptof“the10,000-HourRule,”whichsuggeststhatspending20hoursofworkaweekonsomethingfor10yearsisthekeytosuccessinanyfield.4Inthenextdecade,many10-year-oldswillbe10Kexpertsatnavigatingvirtualenvironments;designinganddeployingavatars;andmulti-modalcommunicationviatext,graphics,video,animation,oronlinegames.Expertyouthvoicesandkid-authoredcontentarelikelytobecomemoreprominentinthepublicdiscourseandasproducts.
New world-interface expectations:By2021,kidswillexpecttobeabletotreatdigitalobjectsmoreliketangibleobjects,capableofbeingmanipulatedviatouchandgesture.Therewillalsobeablurringdistinctionbetweenscreensforwatchingandscreensforplaying,withlesstolerancefordumbscreensthatcan’tbeactivated.Smarttoyswillbe,inessence,sociablerobots,andchildrenwillexpandthekindsofrelationshipstheyhavewiththemviatouch,voice,andgesture.
New evaluation of face-to-face and remote experience:Face-to-facelivingisnotgoingaway,buttherewillbeacontinuedgrowthofsocial,play,andfunactivitiesthattakeplaceinvirtualspacesoverthenextdecade.Certainkindsofphysicalcontact,suchasplayingintheneighborhoodafterschool,arebeingcomplemented,orevenreplaced,bydigitalcontact.Growingupimmersedinvirtualworlds,socialnetworks,andYouTubevideos,childrenwilldevelopadifferentsetofexpectationsforevaluatinghumanproximityandpresence.Authenticexperiencewillincreasinglybemeasuredbyitspresenceacrosscomplex,immersive,multi-layeredenvironments.
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Child Persona: naOMiBorn: January2,2011(10yearsold)Location: BatonRouge,LA
naomi’sStoryNaomiwasanactiveandadventurouskid.Shelovedtoplaysoccerandgohorsebackriding,andespeciallyloveddoingthingswithherfriends—untilheraccident.ThreemonthsagoNaomibrokeherC2vertebra,leavingherparalyzed.Sheisnowconfinedtoabedorwheelchair.Recentadvancesinstemcelltreatmentofferagoodchancethatshewillregainfullmobility,butthetreatmentsandrehabilitationwilltakeseveralyears.Inthemeantime,herparentsarelookingforwaysshecanshareexperienceswithherfriendsinameaningfulway.Herfriendsstillvisit,butitisonlyforashorttime,anditisawkward.Naomijustwantstoplaywithherfriends,andNaomi’sparentsdon’twanthertolosehersenseofadventurebeforehertreatmentsarecomplete.
DesignChallengeDesignaplayexperienceforNaomiandherfriends.Inventorre-purposeatechnologythatconnectsandenrichesherlife.
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11INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe
aRTIfaCTS fROm The fUTURe: HEaRTBOOkLIVE-STREAMINGSHAREDPLAY
Friendshipisaboutsharedexperiencesandsharedemotions.Inakid’sworld,wheredirectphysicalcontactwithpeersislimitedbydistance,rules,orthelackoftime,theHeartBookisagodsend.Originallydevelopedforparalyzedkidstoshareoutdoorexperienceswiththeirfriends,ithastakenoffamongallkids,andwasthemostpopularproductfor10yearsoldgirlsin2021.
WhyHeartBook?Heartbookworksbylive-streamingvideo,audio,andevenfeelingsofkidslinkedinasocialnetworkthroughawearabledevice.Nomatterwherekidsare,theycantuneinand“feel”thereal-timeexperiencesoftheirfriends.Itcanturnmerefriendsintotelepathictwins,achievingalevelofclosenessthatnodistancecandiminish.
1 | The fUTURe Of KIDS’ Play
always Connected
WithHeartBookyoucanremotelyjoin-inonyourfriends’real-lifeexperiences.
always Recording
Recordsallaudio-visualinformation,andevenemotionalstates,tosharewithfriends.
Custom heartBook Jewelry
DesignyourownHeartBookcaseandprintitoutwiththeHeart-O-Matic3Dprinter.
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13INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe
Over the next decade, children’s preventive and therapeutic care will improve from advances in connected digital technologies.Innovativeparticipatoryepidemiologyandothercommunity-basedhealtheffortswillreframepreventivepublichealth,leveraginglightweightsensorsandvisualizationtoolsinordertomonitorchildrenconstantly,andatamuchmoregranularlevel.Onthetreatmentside,theintegrationofsmarttablets,mobiletechnology,andgamingdeviceswillprovidenewwindowsonchildren’sintelligenceandcreativity.Atthesametime,concernsoverexcessiveexposuretodigitaltechnologiesandscreentimewillmount,andoverutilizationofthesenewtoolswillbeseenasanavoidablehealthrisk.Intheend,parentsandprofessionalswillstrivetooptimizethehealthbenefitsthatkids’technologieswillgenerate,whilekeepingacarefuleyeontheundesirableeffectstheymayproduce.
ChaNgINg CONTeXTS fOR healTh
EmergingHealthissuesAfterpeakingin2003–2004,obesityrateshaveheldsteadyat10%forchildrenaged2–5,andjustunder20%forchildrenaged6–11.5Whereincidenceofdiseasehasnotstabilized,however,isinskinallergiesandfoodallergies,andinAttentionDeficitHypertensionDisorder(ADHD).Theseconditionshaveincreasedinchildrenoverthelastdecade,withskinallergiesandADHDbothaffectingaroundoneineverytenchildren.6TheprevalenceofAutismSpectrumDisorder(ASD)isequallytroubling.AccordingtotheCentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,iffourmillionchildrenarebornintheUnitedStateseveryyear,approximately36,500childrenofthemwilleventuallybediagnosedwithanASD.Fortypercentofthosechildrenwillnotspeak.7
TroublePayingforCarePrivatehealthinsurancecoverageforchildrenundertheageof18hasbeenonthedeclineformorethantenyears,whileMedicaidforthiscohorthasalmostdoubled.Althoughthisreshufflingactuallyresultedinadecreaseinthepercentageofchildrenwhowereuninsured,theamountandtypeofcareforwhichchildrenarecoveredalsodeclined.8Moreancillaryhealthservices,specificallythoserelatedtomanagingchronicillnesses,aregenerallyonlycoveredinprivateplans,andnotinmoststate-fundedplans.Healthreformwilllikelynotchangethisaccesstohealthcare.Withoutfinancialcoveragetohelppayforanincreasednumberofmedicalservices,parentswilllooktonoveltechnology-drivenapproachestomanagetheirchildren’schronicconditionsmorecost-effectively.Theseapproacheswillhelpparentsandempowerchildrenwithanarrayoftoolstounderstandandactonpotentialhealthrisksthatsurroundthem.
The fUTURe Of KIDS’ heaTh:
a maTRix Of wEll-bEiNg 2
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S i g n a l S
Q Sensor Curve
TheAffectivaQSensorisawearable,wirelessbiosensorthatmeasuresemotional
arousalviaskinconductance,aformofelectrodermalactivitythatgrowshigher
duringstatessuchasexcitement,attentionoranxiety,andlowerduringstatessuchas
boredomorrelaxation.Source:affectiva.com/q-sensor/
asthmapolis Inhalers
AtthecenterofAsthmapolisinhalercapsaresmallelectronicmedicationsensorsthattrackthetimeandlocationthattheinhalers
areused,andthensendthatinformationtoaremoteserver.Maps,charts,andtablesofthisinformationcanbegeneratedtorevealpatterns
oflocation,use,andtrendsovertime.Source:asthmapolis.com
Itisnosecretthatdust,pollen,chemicalsinfoodorintheair,andotherenvironmentalriskfactorsarethetriggersformanyofthehealthconditionsthatimpactchildrenandtheirparents.Inaddition,researchersarefindingthatasthmaattacksorallergicreactionsmayberelatedtostrongemotionsandstress,whicharefactorsthattheyhavealsoseenascontributingtobehavioraldisorders.
Asapreventivestrategy,pediatriciansandallergistscommonlyadviseparentstoeliminateoutbreaktriggers,monitorsymptomsand,forasthma,measurepeakflow.9Thisadvice,whilewise,isoftenverydifficulttoputintopracticeandoflimitedbenefit.
Overthenextdecade,however,awaveofnewtechnologieswillenableparents,researchers,andpublic
healthofficialstoperceivetheofteninvisiblerisksthatsurroundchildren.Asthmainhalerswillbeequippedwithsensorsthatwilltrackwhenandwheretheinhalersareused.Wearablesensorswillbeabletotrackhumanemotions,perhapsuncoveringsurprisinglinksbetweensocial,built,andnaturalsettingsandachild’semotionalwell-being.Furtherout,amorerefinedviewoftheriskssurroundingchildrenwillnotbelimitedtoexternalfactors.Embeddablesensordeviceswillallowparentstoviewtheirchild’sbiologicalsystemstounderstandhowfoodsandchemicalsareingestedandprocessed.Beyondthevalueoftheimmediacyofthisinformation,thedatacollectedfromthesedevices,whenaggregated,analyzed,andvisualized,willprovideamuchbroaderandricherpictureofhealthtriggersandrisksforchildren.
fOReCaST: HEalTHRiSkSBECOMEViSiBlE
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15INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe
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affdex
Affectiva’sfacialexpressionplatform,Affdex,useswebcamstohelpusers
recognizefacialmusclemovementsandequatethemwithhumanemotions.
Source:affectiva.com
Proloquo2go
Proloquo2Gisafull-featuredcommunicationsolutionforpeoplewhohavedifficultyspeaking.Itoffersnaturalsoundingtext-to-speechvoices,closeto8000up-to-datesymbols,powerful
automaticconjugations,andalargedefaultvocabulary.
Source:proloquo2go.com/About/article/ipad
Popchilla
AttheAutismCenterofPittsburgh,developerSeemaPatelisdevelopingan
iPadapplicationthatwillchallengechildrenwithautismtoidentifytheemotionsofa
robotnamedPopchilla.Source:autismcenterofpittsburgh.com,mygloss.com
/geek/files/2010/08/popchilla-300x210.png
Forsomefamilies,digitaltechnologieshavedonemorethanamplifytheirchildren’scuriosityandcreativity—theyhaveunlockedchildren’sabilitytoexpressthemselves.Digitalinterfacesareallowingindividualswithdisabilitiestocommunicateandexpressthemselvesinwaysunimagina-blebefore,openingdoorsformoreindependenceandmoreengagement.Non-clinicalmobileapplications,facialrec-ognitionsoftware,andgesturalandtouchscreeninterfacesarehelpingfamiliesandcaretakersdiscovermoreabouttheirnon-verbalchildren’sneeds,insights,andintellect.
Theportability,thesensitivityofthetouchscreens,andotherbuilt-infeaturesofthenewestdigitaltabletsare
gamechangersforpeoplewithdisabilities,mostnotablyforkidswithautism.AsjournalistAshleyHarrellexplains,“Whethertheyarehigh-orlow-functioning,childrenwithautismtendtobevisuallearnerswhogravitatetowardtechnologyandscreens.”10
Overthenextdecade,technologywillfinallystarttocatchupwithwhatchildrenwithdisabilitiestrulyneed.Consumertechnologieswillcontinuetoseepintothemedicalspace,andchildrenwithdisabilitiesandtheircaregiverswillrepurposetheminordertocommunicateandexpressthemselvesmorefreelythanbefore.
fOReCaST: UnlOCkingnEWVOiCES
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Differentiating among Computer Users
AlanKay,apioneerincomputerprogramming,design,anduser-interfaces
(UIs),iscurrentlydevelopinganeducationalUIthatwilllearnwhatkindofuseristryingtouseit.Therangeofhumanstylesandmotivationsisconsiderableandtaking
advantageofthemiscritical.Source:news.stanford.edu
exergames get Kids Off The Couch
Videogamesthatrequirephysicalactivity,suchasDanceDanceRevolution(DDR)andWiiBoxing,helpkidsburncaloriesandraisetheirmetabolicequivalent(anapproximationofhowmuchoxygenthe
bodyusesduringanactivity).OneversionofDDRusesthepopularMariocharacterto
specificallyengageyoungchildren.Source:konami.com
Concernsthatexcessivescreentimethreatenschildren’sbehavioralandphysicalhealthhavecausedtrustedauthori-tiesinchildren’shealthandwell-beingtoissueblanketguidelinesaroundkids’mediaconsumption.However,notallinteractivescreentimeactivitiesarethesame,and,withtheexceptionofviolentvideogames,littlein-depthresearchhasbeenconductedtounderstandthepotentialhealthbenefitsandlimitationsdifferenttypesofscreentimemayinvolve.
Researchhasdemonstratedthat“energyexpendituremorethandoubleswhensedentaryscreentimeisconvertedtoactivescreentime.”11Asaresult,interactivedigitalmediaisnowattheforefrontofpolicy,foundation,andcommercialinitiativesforchildhoodobesitypreventionandtreatment.Asexcitingasthesedevelopmentsare,otherbenefitstoa
child’sneurologicalandcognitivehealth,yettobediscov-ered,mayalsoresultfrominterfacingwithinteractivemedia.
Overthenextdecade,amoreprecisesegmentationofmedia,coupledwithamorehigh-resolutionunderstandingofthebiologicalandneurologicalfunctioningofindividualchildren,willhelpdeciphertheimpactthatscreentime—sedentaryandactive—hasondifferentchildren.PediatricdevelopmentalbehavioralhealthspecialistDr.MartinSteinnotes,“[I]ndividualbiologicalriskfactorsandprotectivemechanismsarelikelyinfluencingadversepsychological,social,andhealthoutcomesassociatedwithexcessivemediaexposure.”12Asaresult,mediaconsumptionrecom-mendationswillbetailoredtoindividualchildrenbasedonanumberofriskfactorsincludingthemediatypeandthechild’sbiologicalprofile.
fOReCaST: SEgMEnTingSCREEnTiME
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ImPlICaTIONS New measurements create new norms:Theintentionbehindtrackingchildren’senvironmentalsurroundingsandbiologicalsystemsistodetectpotentialhealthrisksandcurtailfuturediseaseoutbreaks.Yetgrowthinthetrackingandcollectionofmorepreciseandcontinuousdatawillalmostcertainlyleadtoanuncoveringofnewhealthailmentsandnewhealththreats.Andwhileidentifyingnewdiagnoseswilllikelysolveconfusionandfrustrationforsomefamilieslongstrugglingfromunknownhealthandbehavioralconditions,itwillalsospurnewbaselinesandnewnormalities.Determininggoodphysicalandmentalhealthwillbedependentonyetanothersetofmeasurements,resultinginyetanotheropportunitytomedicalizechildren.
Consumer tech blurs with medical tech:AfterthetrulytransformationalimpactApple’siPadmadeontheautismcommunity,theseparationbetweenmedicalandconsumerdevicesislessstraightforward.Thecapabilities,durability,mobility,and—nottobeoverlooked—thepricepointofconsumertechnologiesare,inmanycases,superiortodevicesregulatedasmedicaltechnologies.Asmorewearableandembeddedsensorsbecomeimportanthealthtrackingtools,thedistinctionwillbecomeevenmoreambiguous.Arepurposingofconsumertechnologiesatalargescalemaysparkinvestigationfromregulators,butitmayalsoopenthedoorformorecollaborationandpartnershipbetweentechdevelopersandthemedicalcommunitytocreatehighlyefficacioustech-enabledsolutionsforkids.13
Media becomes medicalized:Increasingnumbersofyoungchildrenwhocannottelltimeonananalogclock,swimindependently,ormaketheirownbreakfastcanuseamouseoratouchscreen,andnavigatetheirparent’ssmartphone.Inrecognitionoftheseemergingtech-enabledbehaviors,newmilestonesinachild’sdevelopment,alongwiththecorrespondingchecklistsandevaluations,willbegintobeintegratedintoroutinepediatriccare.Also,ifpediatricianshaveabettersenseofapatient’s“mediaconsumptionhistory,”theywillhaveabetterchanceatinterveningbeforeanyrelatednegativehealthoutcomestranspire.
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Child Persona: FRanCOBorn: July14,2014(7yearsold)Location: Emeryville,CA
Franco’sStoryFrancoliveswithhisMomandolderbrother(Jon,11)inasmallduplexinEmeryville,CA.Franco’sMomworkslonghoursandisrarelyhomewiththeboys.JonoftenhasresponsibilityforwatchingFranco.“Watching”consistsofplayingvideogamesorwatchingstreamingvideoontheirtablet.Lastyear,Franco’sFirstGradeteacherreportedFrancowashavingextremeemotionaloutburstsduringclass,andrecommendedthatheseeachildpsychologist.
Attheadviceofthepsychologist,Franco’sMomrearrangedherscheduletobehomeduringtheevenings,andenrolledFrancoinspecialclassesofferedbytheState.Thesedidlittletohelphiscondition.Finally,aspecialisthadFrancotestedforaparticularallelethatgeneticistsbelievecausesomechildrentobehyper-sensitivetovideogamesandothermedia.The“screengene”asitwascalled,madecarriersmoreemotionallyreactiveandbehaviorallyunstablethanthosewithouttheallele,evenwhenconsumingthesameamountandkindsofmedia.
Turnsout,Francodidhavethe“screengene,”andhisMom,hisdoctors,andhisteachersareimplementingsomechangesintoFranco’slifestyle.Thisincludeslimitingtelevision,andprohibitingallvideogames.Needlesstosay,Francoisupsetaboutthesechanges,andfeelsfrustratedandleftoutfromhispeers.
DesignChallengeCreateawayforFrancotohavesatisfyingmediaexperiencesthatareappropriateforhisemotionalreactivelevels.Strictprohibitionfromgamesandmediaisdifficult,especiallyintheworldof2021.WhatservicesortechnologiescanyouimaginethatwillhelpFrancoandthoselikehim?
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emotional Coaching
Asitlearnsaboutachild’sneurologicalandbehavioralprofile,itwillcuratemediaandactivitiestomaximizeemotionalandphysicalhealth.Usingthepatented“goldilox”application,itwillfeedcontentandmissionsthatarenotoverlystimulating,butnottooboring.
Personal Biometrics
DollofDutymeasuresheartrate,bodytemperature,stress,andeyemovementstocreatetheidealphysicalandemotionalexperienceforyourchild.
aRTIfaCTS fROm The fUTURe: DOllOFDUTYA21STCENTURYHEROTOKIDSANDPARENTSALIKE
DollofDutyislikeatraditionalG.IJoetoy,butonethatalsohappenstobeaphysicaleducationinstructor,emotionalcoach,andchildpsychologist.Itissoldasaphysicaltoy,butonceitisregisteredtoachild,theDollofDutywillcreateavirtualpresenceinakid’slife,showinguponhissocialnetworks,andpoppingintovideogamesorevenintohisaugmentedrealityfilters.
WhyDollofDuty?ThisAPA-approvedcompaniontoybothmonitorskids’mediaconsumptionandencourageskidstoengageinexcitingoutdooradventureswiththeirpeers.
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21INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe
In the coming decade, kids will be video-monitored, geo-located, and physically protected more than anytime in history.Thecontenttheyconsumewillbeautomaticallyfilteredandspeciallydesignedtomaximizelearningwhileminimizingcognitiveoremotionalharm.Kids’interactionswithadultswillbecloselyregulatedandallowedonlyundercertainconditions.
Acoredilemmaformodernparentshasbeenhowtoprotectchildrenwithoutimprisoningtheminaprotectivebubble—howtoallowadventure,exploration,andfreedom,withoutundueriskoflong-termnegativeconsequences.Adultswillhaveincreasedcapacitiestocloselymonitorandintentionallydesignexperiencesfortheirchildren.Thesenewcapacitieswillallowparents,teachers,andlawmakersmoreopportunitiestointerveneinachild’senvironmenttoreduceriskskidsarelikelytoencounterastheygrowup.
Surveillanceandprotectivetechnologiesarealreadybeginningtoproliferate,butfaceabacklashagainstintrusivenessandover-protection.Asaresult,asystemoftechnologieswillemergeinthe2020sthatwillofferrobustmonitoringthatismostlyinvisibletothechild.Thesehigh-tech“guardianangels”willunobtrusivelyprotectchildren—lettingkidsbekids—andwillbecomemanifestonlywhenabsolutelynecessary.Parents,teachers,andothersstrivingforaworldof“risklessrisk”forkidswillusethisguardian-angeltechnologytoprogramordial-inanacceptablelevelofriskbasedontheirvaluesandperceptionofexistentialdangersintheirchildren’sworld.
Changing Contexts for Safety and Security
UbiquitousMonitoringSocial,demographic,economic,andtechnologicaltrendsaredrivingthepushtowardhigh-techguardianangels.Videosurveillance,digitaltracking,sensors,andmobiledeviceshavemadecontinuousknowledgeofachild’swhereaboutsandactivitiespossibleatareasonablecost.14Withthesetoolsavailable,thesocialandlegalpressureforparents,schools,andothercaretakerstousethemisstrong,andoftenirresistible.Whereasadecadeorsoago,asinglephonecalltocheckinservedasdiligentsurveillance,nowcontinuousmobilepresenceandconnectionisthenorm,evenforsmallchildren.
SmallerFamiliesBirth-ratesinwealthy,industrializednationscontinuetofall,meaningmorepeoplearehavingfewerchildren.15Withmoreridingonthesuccessofthesechildrenandless“roomforerror,”eachchildislikelytoreceivegreaterparentalattentionandsupervision.Parentsandsocietywilldomoretoprotectthesescarcer,andthereforemoreprecious,resourcesthantheywouldiftherewereanabundanceofchildren.
3The fUTURe Of KIDS’ SafeTy:
high-TECh “gUaRdiaN aNgElS”
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MakingRiskillegalWhatwereonceprivatedecisionsaboutanadequatelevelofprotectionandsurveillanceofchildrenareincreasinglybeingmadeatbroadersocialandpolicylevels.Manyofthesearegenerallyacceptedascommonsense,suchasthemandateforuseofcarseatsforinfants,orbicyclehelmetsforchildren.Butnowwearealsobeginningtoseegreatersocietalpressuretomonitorkids’eatinghabitsandhowtheycommunicateonsocialnetworks.Thesocializationofrisk,andthesometimesexcessiveriskaversionofpopulation-widedecisionmaking,willpushthedevelopmentandadoptionofmorerobust,andmoreinvasive,monitoringtechnologies.
Ubiquitousdigitalconnectionandlower-costbiologicalsamplingandmetricshaveenabledthegrowthofthekidtrackingindustryandnewgovernment-mandatedidentificationdatabases.16ParentsareusingdigitaltrackingsoftwaretomonitorInternetuseinthevirtualworldaswellasoutfittingtheirkidswithsophisticatedmobiledevicesandexpectingfrequentphoneortext“check-ins”formonitoringinthephysicalworld.Insomeinstances,theyareinstallingpassivetrackingapplicationsinmobileandwearabledevicesthatconstantlyrelaylocationandotherdataabouttheirkids.
Inadditiontomobiledevices,parentsandschoolsareusingvideosurveillanceandevenradiofrequencyidentificationchipsinschooluniformstotrackkids.Continuouslocationdataandbehavioralinformation(forexample,whichschoolluncheskidschoose)canbegatheredbythesewearablechips.Privacyadvocateshave
raisedconcernsaboutthepotentialforabuseofdatawiththislevelofdetailaboutmovementandbehavior,butsomeschoolsarealreadyexperimentingwiththesetrackingprograms.
Parents,schools,andlawenforcementhavealsoencouragedthecollectionandstorageofDNAsamplesandotherbiometricdata,suchasfingerprinting,foruseincasesofmissingorkidnappedchildren.Combinedwithall-points-bulletinsand“AmberAlerts,”agrowingnetworkofdigitalandbiologicaldatacanbeutilizedtofindandidentifymissingchildren.Whilesharingthisinformationisnotmainstreamnow,theappealofhavingaccesstopotentiallyusefuldataincaseofthesekindofemergenciesispersuadingmanyparentsandschoolstopreemptivelygatherthisdata,andtoprovideprivilegedaccesstolawenforcementagencies.
fOReCaST: kiD-MaPPing
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RfID Tracking in School Uniforms
ContraCostaCounty,CA,Schoolshaveinitiatedaprogramtomonitorthelocationofstudentsbysetting
upanetworkofsensorsthatcantrackRFIDchipsembeddedinschooluniforms.
Source:thenextweb.com/us/2010/08/26/california-school-uses-rfid-tags-to-track-location-of-preschoolers/
fBI Child ID iPhone app
TheU.S.FederalBureauofInvestigationhasdevelopedaniPhoneappthatstorespictures,identifying
characteristics,fingerprints,andevenDNAinformation,whichcanthenbequicklysenttoauthoritiesinthe
eventofakidnappingormissingchild.Source:fbi.gov/news/stories/2011
/august/child_080511/child_080511
Wearable gPS Tracking Devices
Inadditiontodozensofmobiledeviceapplicationsthatuseinternallocationtechnologiesforpeer-to-peertracking,otherstand-aloneproductsareavailableas
well.ThePikavúlocatorusesaGPSdeviceembeddedinawristwatchwornbythechild.Aspecialreceiver
giveslocationinformationtotheparentorguardian,andthewristwatchcomeswithachild-prooflock.
Source:pikavu.com
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Technologies,laws,andparentalpracticesthatresultinchildrengrowingupinover-protectivebubblesarenotonlyaestheticallyorculturallyunappealing,butmayalsobeharmfultoachild’soverallsocial,psychological,andcognitivedevelopmentinthelongrun.
PsychologistEllenSandseterarguesthatforhealthyemotionalandcognitivedevelopment,“childrenneedtoencounterrisksandovercomefearsontheplayground.”Shenotesthata“childwho’shurtinafallbeforetheageof9islesslikelyasateenagertohaveafearofheights.”Theunknownriskismoreterrifyingthanonethathasbeenexperienced.“Ourfearofchildrenbeingharmedbyharmlessinjuries,”Sandseterconcludes,“mayresultinmorefearfulchildrenandincreasedlevelsofpsychopathology.”17
Asdanahboyd,anexpertinsocialmediaandyouth,hasobserved,“Thereareseriousconsequencestoimprisoningyouthuntiltheygrowup.”18Forboyd,overprotectionresultsinageneralreductionincreativityandexplorationoftheunknownbykids.This,byextension,couldresultinaweakenedcivilizationalcapacitytosolveourbiggestchallenges.
Inthecomingyears,wecanexpecttoseeagrowingbacklashagainsttheuseoftechnologytocreatebubblesofoverprotection.However,noparentorguardianwantstoleaveachildoverexposedtoriskeither.So,thedemandformore“invisible”protectionsystemswillgrow.Theadoptionofcompletelyubiquitous,ambient,buthardlynoticeablemonitoringandtrackingtechnologieswilltakehold,allowingparentstomorefinelymodulatetheriskstowhichtheirchildrenareexposedwithouthavingtokeeptheminprotectivebubbles.
fOReCaST: BaCklaSHagainST“THEBUBBlE”
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antiprotectionism
Findingtherightbalancebetweensafetyandfreedomforkidshasbeen,andwillcontinuetobe,astruggle
forparentsandguardians.Technologicaltetheringandprotectionwillbemoreavailablethanever,andaconcertedefforttokeepfreedomandriskinkidslives(to“reclaimchildhood”)willbenecessary,as
arguedintheserecentbooks.Sources:Tulley,G.Fifty Dangerous Things (You Should Let Your Children Do).Montara,CA:TinkeringUnlimited,2009;Skenazy,L.Free Range Kids, How to Raise Safe, Self-Reliant Children (Without Going Nuts with Worry).SanFrancisco:Jossey-Bass,2010.
acceptable Risk
Abacklashagainsttoomuchsafetyinplaygroundsisbeingseenincityplanningoffices.HenryStern,NewYork’s
ParksCommissionerinthe1990s,ledthefighttokeepplaygroundsfrombecoming“bowdlerized.”
Source:www.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/science/19tierney.html
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fOReCaST: BlEnDEDREaliTY—SEPaRaTEWORlDS
Kinect age Scanner and Content filter
MicrosofthasappliedforapatentthatinvolvesmodifyingtheKinecttobecomeasurveillancedevicethatcanscanbodiesinaroomtosee
ifkidsarepresent,thenfiltercontentaccordingtoage-basedrules.ThustheKinect(anddeviceslikeit)maybecomeamajorparental
controltechnology.Source:winrumors.com
/kinect-may-act-as-a-parental-control-body-scanner-in-future/
missouri “facebook” law
The“AmyHestirStudentProtectionAct”passedthisyearinMissouri,prohibitsexclusiveelectroniccontactbetweenteachersandstudents.Allcommunicationbetweenteachersandstudentsmustbeaccessible
toparents,administrators,orotherguardians.Thus,thishasbeendeemedtheFacebookLaw,becauseateachercannotcreateaone-to-
oneclosedcommunicationplatform.
AsbillsupporterandVirginiaCommonwealthUniversityeducationprofessorCharolShakeshaftargues,“Inthesamewaythatinaschool
wewouldsay,‘No,youmaynotlockyourselfintoaroomwithastudent,’thislaweffectivelysays,‘Noyoumaynotlockyourselfintoawebsite
whereonlyyoucangettothestudent.’”20
Unaccompanied adults?
Itisaviolationinmanyparksandplaygroundstobeanadultunaccompaniedbyachild.TwowomenwithoutchildrenwereticketedinBrooklynforeatingdoughnutsatabenchinapark.(Oneispicturedabove,accompaniedbyachildonalateroccasion.)Merecopresenceofadultsandkidsisoftenillegal,andthismodelofseparationisbeing
portedtothedigitalworldaswell.Source:gothamist.com/2011/06/06/ticketed_for_eating_a_doughnut_in_a.php
Digitalandphysicalrealmsaremerging.ThisiswhatIFTFcalls“BlendedReality,”theworldinwhichphysicalobjectsgenerateadatashadow,andwhereinformationisoverlaidontothematerialworld.19Withchildrengrowingupinthistechnologicalblendedreality,thetraditionalbarrierstocontactbetweenkidsandadults,andthesystemsofsurveillance,arefallingapart,andinthecracksgrowsuspicion,paranoia,andfear.
Thefearofthecominglingofkidandadultworlds,andwithitthefearofsexualassault,kidnapping,andemotionalharm,hasdriventhedevelopmentofsoftware-based
contentfilters.Contextanduser-awaresystemsthatcandeterminetheageofauserwillreduceprivacyforallusers,andcreatepotentiallylabyrinthineprocessesforadult-kidcommunicationandinteraction.
Inphysicalspace,themerepresenceofnonparentaladultsinaplaygroundorchild’sareaisenoughtowarrantlegalaction.Thismentalityisspillingoverintothedigitalrealmaswell.Newlawsandpoliciesattemptingtolimitdirectcommunicationbetweenkidsandadults,especiallyviasocialmediaspacessuchasFacebook,arebeingproposedandpassedmorefrequently.
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ImPlICaTIONS Risk management gets more complex:Managingriskforachildisconstantnegotiation,withadultsoftenmakingmercurialchoicesaboutwhenandwheretointervene.Evidence,research,andlong-termconsequenceoftentakeabackseattoshort-termuneasiness,irrationalfear,andpeerpressure.Withtechnologiesthatallowmuchmoreparentalandadultcontroloverachild’sriskenvironment,wildandunpredictableswingsintheapplicationofsafetyandsecurityprotectionscanbeexpected.Parentswillhavetheopportunitytotryoutahostof“child-proofing”toolsbeyondtheconfinesofhome,includingtechnologiesto“program”achild’sriskenvironmentwithmuchmoreprecision.Thefugitivelineofacceptableriskwillbemoreblurrythanever,fuelingphilosophicalandethicaldebates,andaddingthestressofcontradictoryexpectationstoparentsandcaregivers.
Protectionism reveals a paradox:Researchhasshownthatkidshaveanadrenalinethresholdthattheyattempttoreachbytryingriskybehaviors.Inotherwords,ifaplaygroundhaspaddedconcretesurfacesandfloors,kidswillsimplyclimbhigher,trymoreaggressivestunts,andsmashintothosepaddedwallsharder.Ontheotherhand,kidstendtoplaysaferwhenthereismoredangerousequipmentorconditionsaround.Wemayjustbe“uppingtheante”forriskybehaviorbycreatingmoresafetyprotections.
Adulthood reached by overcoming technical censors:Notionsofprivacy,transparency,andidentitywillchangedramatically,andkidsraisedinaworldofconstantsurveillancebyadultswillcometorelyonthesetoolstonavigatetheirworld.Lifewithoutmonitoringandreal-timecommunicationwithpeersandadultswillbescaryandconfusingformanykids.Technologicalgatekeepersforinformation,media,andphysicalspaceswillabound.Kidswillbumpupagainsttheseconstraintsintheirdailylives,and,askidsarewanttodo,theywilltesttheboundariesofthesecontrolmechanisms.
Authenticationandpermissioninterfaceswilltrackandlimitthefreementalandphysicalmovementofkids,forcingthemto“hack”theirwayintotheadultworld.Kidsmaycometoseetheirguardianangelsnotasbeneficentprotectors,butasprisonguardskeepingthemfromreachingtheirfullpotential.
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Child Persona: SYDBorn: February29,2015(6yearsold)Location: Toronto,Canada
Syd’sStorySydisa6-yearoldboywholikesdinosaursandairplanes.Helivesinthesuburbswithhisparentsandnewbornbabysister.Syd’sparentsarereputationcouncilorsandthinkofthemselvesasveryopen-minded,adventurouspeople.Theyvaluefreedomandpersonalexploration,andwanttoinstillthosevaluesintheirchildren.However,asSydgrewolder,theyfoundthemselvesbecomingmoreandmoreprotectiveofhim.Theyinstalledcamerastomonitorthenanny,theymadeSydcarryaGPSdevicetopre-school,andtheynervouslymanagedSyd’splaytimeactivities.NoticingSyd’sincreasinglytimidbehavior,andrealizinghowover-protectivetheyhadbecome,Syd’sparentbegantolookforwaystogivehimmorefreedomandtointroducemorechallengesintohisdailylife.ThesechangeshavebeenhardonSyd,whobecamedependentonhisprotectivebubble.Helikesthenewthingshegetstodo,butmissestheconstantpresenceofhisguardians.
DesignChallengeCreateadeviceorservicethatencouragesexplorationofone’senvironmentandhelpskidsseeknewchallengeswhilestillmaintainingsomeformofsecurity.Ideally,youshouldtrytodesignasystemthatwouldallowakidtobreakhisarm,butnothisneck.Thinkaboutthemosteffectiveplacestointerveneinakid’sworldformaximumsafetyandminimalintrusion.
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Biometric monitoring
Twowearable,networkedelectrodes,placedonthebackofyourchild’sneckmonitorslocation,includingstress,bloodpressure,hydrationlevels,bloodsugar,andotherbiofeedbackmarkersvitaltocreatingareal-time,customizedriskprofileforyourchildaccessibletoparents,teachers,orguardians.Ifachild’sbloodsugarislow,theyshouldn’tbeclimbingthehighestmonkeybars,andyou’llknowit.
feeling Risk
Butnotonlywillyouknowtheriskcontextforyourchild,ourunique“sixthsense”technologywillalsosendalightelectriccurrentthroughthedevicesonthechild’sneck,givingthemanartificial“hairstandingonend”feeling.Thiscluestheminthatdangerisafoot.
Programming Safety
Parentscanprogramthelevelofriskacceptablefortheirchild,evenincludingreal-timelocationdatafromthenationalsexualpredatordatabase,andanaccelerometerthatindicatesifachildismovinginacar.
aRTIfaCTS fROm The fUTURe: gUaRDianangElPEACEOFMINDFORPARENTS,UNTETHEREDPLAYFORKIDS
Howdoyouprotectyourkids,butallowthemenoughfreedomtoexplore,pushboundaries,andtakerisks?EntertheGuardianAngel.Thisamazingsuiteoftechnologiesdevelopsasixthsensefordangerdirectlyintoyourchild.
Whyguardianangel?Thissystemprovidesabalancedapproachtosafety,allowingachildthefreedomtoexploretheirenvironment,whilegivingparenvtsenoughinformationandcontroltoprovidepeaceofmind.
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Technologies to augment human learning are as old as language itself.Overtime,theseaugmentationsevolvedintothegiant,complexeducationalsystemsweknowtoday.However,thebasicinstitutionsthatshapelearningarenowpoisedforafundamentalreorganizationasmoreadvancedtechnologiescomeonline.Anewgenerationofinexpensiveandaccessiblelearningtechnologiesformeasuring,personalizing,andaugmentingstudentperformanceisreachingmaturity.Learningtechnologiesarespecificallydesignedtochangeminds,tighteningthefeedbackloopbetweenuserandtechnology.MarshalMcLuhan’sfamousobservationthat“weshapeourtoolsandthereafterourtoolsshapeus”resonatesmorestronglythanever.
Asyoungergenerationslearntheskillsdeemednecessarytothriveinthe21stcentury,theroleofeducationwillneedtobefundamentallyre-examined.Thisrethinkwillbethesourceofprovocative,andperhapsinflammatory,debateinthecomingdecade.Toaddresstheseemergingeducationdilemmas,assumptionsaboutthenatureoflearning,theroleofschoolsandaboutthenatureofchildhooditselfwillbesignificantlychallenged.
Changing Contexts for learning
learningaboutlearningOurtraditionalmodelofeducationislargelybasedona“onesizefitsall”industrialmodel.Todayhowever,neuroscientists,psychologists,andeducators,arecollaboratingtogainamoresophisticatedunderstandingofhowyoungbrainsdevelopandlearn.21Learningitselfcanbedefinedasapersistentchangeinneuronalfunction.Anewinterdisciplinaryfield,“neuroeducation,”isemergingaroundtheidealofdevelopingteachingmethodsandcurriculatobettermatchtheconditionsunderwhichmindslearnbest.Already,anumberofcharterschoolsandspecializedprogramshavebegunexperimentingwithgame-basededucation,newindividualperformancemetrics,andnext-generationpedagogicaltoolsthathavebeeninformedbythebrainsciences.Astheinsightsofthesefieldsaremorefullyapplied,theywillpressureeducationsystemstomovefroma“onesizefitsall”toa“oneneuronatatime”approach.
learningintheCloudComputingcapacitycontinuestoincreaseatthebreathtakingtrajectorydefinedbyMoore’sLaw,andisfundamentallychangingthetechnologicalbackdropofsociety.Asaresult,adecadefromnowkidswillhaveaccesstoaboutahundredtimesthecomputingpoweravailabletotoday’schildren—withpowerfulhandhelddeviceslinkedtocloud-basedsupercomputing.Withthismassivesurgeofinformation,andpowerfulsearchtoolsforaccessingthatinformation,theolddebateaboutwhetherweshouldbeeducatingforinformationorforcharacterwilltakeonnewmeanings.
The fUTURe Of KIDS’ leaRNINg:
lEaRNiNg TO adaPT
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BigDataRelatedtopurecomputationalpowerwillbethegenerationofanalmostunfathomableamountofdata.Kidstodayaregrowingupinaworlddefinedbyanexponentialgrowthindata—theeraofbigdatahasbegun.Ninetypercentofthedataintheworldtodayhasbeencreatedinthelasttwoyearsalone.22Ciscoforecaststhattherewillbe50billionthingsontheInternetby2020.23Allofthese“things,”allofourdevices,andalmostallofusonplanetEarthwillbegeneratinganddisseminatingdataaboutourlocation,ourcondition,whatwearedoing,andmore.
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Pedagogical feedback loops
CarnegieMellon’sOpenLearningInitiativeembedsassessmentintoeveryinstructionalactivityandusestheresultingdatatodrive
powerfulfeedbackloopsforcontinuousevaluationandimprovementofstudent
performance.Source:oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/initiative
360˚ Virtual experiences
TheStarCAVE’sprototypeinstallationoftinycellularprocessesatCalit2(University
ofCalifornia,SanDiego)demonstratestheimmersivecapabilitiesofcutting-edgemediatechnologiesandtheirpotentialuse
aslearningexperiences.Source:whyfiles.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/
scimaxtheater.jpg
Evaluationof“learning”hastraditionallybeendonethroughaseriesofproxies:tests,homework,andperformancesthatletateacherknowthatastudent“getsit.”Now,classroomtechnologiesarepoisedtoprovidenewfeedbackloopsbetweenstudentsandteachersthatwillallowforlessonstobemorepreciselytailoredtotheactualcognitivestylesandlearningneedsofstudents.
Newmeasurementtoolswillalloweducatorstoknow,withmuchmoreprecision,howmuchinformationastudentisactuallyretaining,wherestudentsarehavingtrouble,andwherethegapsinknowledgearethatneedtobefilled.Forexample,usingcomputer-basedtesting,theywillbeabletotrackwhattypesofproblemsorassignmentstakeindividualstudentsarelativelylongtimetosolve.
Closelyconnectedtotheseanalyticsarenewapproachestopersonalization.Newwaysofconnectingteachersandstudentswillensurethatfuturelearnersexperienceaneducationthatisinteractiveandtailoredtotheirspecificneeds,levelofknowledge,paceoflearning,andlearningstyle.
Andfinally,asthedataflowsinvolvedineducationbecomemorecomprehensiveandvisualizationofthisdatabecomesmorecompelling,learningexperienceswillbecomemoreimmersiveand“full-bodied.”Studentswillbeabletovirtuallyexperiencenaturalprocessesandreenactmentsofhistoricaleventsininteractive,3Denvironments,insteadofjustreadingaboutthem.
fOReCaST: aMPliFYingTHEClaSSROOM
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Whileamplifyingtraditionalclassroomfunctionsiscritical,educationwillneedtoexperimentwithdeeperreinventionifitistomeetthechallengesofthecominggeneration.Thisreinventionmayinvolvechildrenhavingmoreindependence,responsibilities,andself-directedlearningopportunities.Itcanbetemptingtoimaginechildhoodasasacrosanctperiodofinnocenceandplay.Butthecurrentconceptionofchildhoodhasnotalwaysbeenthedominantwayofseeingthings.Peoplewhohavegrownupinindustrializednations,forexample,aresometimessurprisedtolearnthatjustafewgenerationsagotheBritishNavyroutinelyinducted10-to12-year-oldsasofficers.
If,asAlbertEinsteinoncesaid,“problemscannotbesolvedatthesamelevelofthinkingthatcreatedthem,”thentherewillbeapremiumonlearningsystemsthatensuretomorrow’skidsthinkverydifferentlythantoday’s.Newkindsofinstitutionaleducationmechanismswillemergetomeetthisneed.Technologieswillenablemoreself-
directedlearningandmoreflexiblescheduling.Beyondthis,promisingexperimentshavesuggestedthatrestructuringrewardmechanismsawayfromgradesandtowardmoregame-likerewardsandchallengesmayleadtoimprovedengagementandoutcomes.
Fromanotherperspective,however,tomorrow’sadultsmaythemselvesneedtothinkmorelikechildren.Thelearningthatwillbenecessarytoeffectivelynavigateinaworldofsuchstaggeringcomplexityisunprecedented.Whileitmayseemthatkidswillhaveto“growupfast,”itmaybemorebeneficial,infact,tothinklikeachildlongerintoadulthood.Indeed,theneurologicalplasticityandlearningstylesofachildwouldserveadultswellindealingwitharapidlychangingworld.ThemissionofMITMediaLab’sLifelongKindergartenProgram,forexample,istotakeinspirationfromthewayskidslearnandplayinkindergartenandapplythoseprinciplestootherlearningopportunitiesandaspectsoflife.24
fOReCaST: DE-OCCUPYTHEClaSSROOM
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Role-playing as education?
Experimentsinlearningmayopendifficultquestions,aswithKidzania,akids’theme
parkinwhichchildrenpretendtoworkinadultoccupations.Billedasfamily
edutainmentandlargelycorporate-branded,Kidzaniahasbeenfranchisedinovera
dozencountriesaroundtheworld.Source:kidzania.com
The future of Video in education
Theemerging“FlippedClassroom”educationalmodelusesvideoinplaceof
directinstruction.Lecturesarewatchedathomeandclasstimeisinsteadspenton
individualattentionandguidance.Source:knewton.com/blog/knewton/2011/08/29/
flipped-classroom-infographic
Teaching Digital Kids
QuesttoLearnisa6-12gradeschoolinNewYorkCitythatusesgame-anddesign-inspiredmethodologiestoteachimperative21stcenturyliteraciesandskills,suchassystemicreasoningandcriticalthinking.
Source:q2l.org/node/13
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S i g n a l S
Computational Thinking Without Computers
RoutingFruit?DevelopedbytheUniversityofCanterburyandsponsoredinpartbyCarnegie
Mellon’sComputerScienceforHighSchoolTeachersprogram,CSUnpluggedusesnon-computer
methodsandmaterials(suchasgames,puzzles,crayons,string,andlotsofrunningaround)toteach
youngchildrencomputationalapproachestotheworldinafunandfamiliarway.
Source:nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12840&page=24
Scratch Programming language
DevelopedbyMITMediaLab’sLifelongKindergartenGroup,Scratchisa
programminglanguagethatmakesiteasyforkidstocreateandshareavarietyof
interactiveprojectswhilelearningimportantmathematicalandcomputationalideas,aswellashowtothinkcreatively,reasonsystematically,andworkcollaboratively.
Source:museum.mit.edu/150/50
Inthenexttenyears,manydomainsoflife,rangingfrompoliticstothelifesciences,willbeshapedbythecontinuousproductionofmassivedatasets.Asaresult,schoolcurriculawillneedtochangetoreflectthegrowingdemandfor“computationalthinkingskills.”Kid-friendlyprogramminglanguages,earlyeducationinalgorithmicthinkingandlogic,andtechnologiesthatteachthefundamentalsofprogrammingvirtualandphysicalworldswillenabletoday’schildrentomeetthesechallengesoftomorrow.
Theinstitutionalizingof“computerthinking”willprovidethefoundationforteachingchildrenhigher-orderskills—problemsolving,creativethinking,logicalthinking,andsystemicexperimentation—thatwillallowthemtomeaningfullymanipulatethedata,andtheworld,around
them.Ascomputationalthinkingbecomesembeddedinhowyoungpeopleunderstandtheirlivesandtheirenvironments,itwillchangethewaysubjectssuchasthelifesciencesincorporateemergingdisciplines,likesyntheticbiology.
Computerscienceeducationisusingonlinelearningplatformstocapitalizeonthedesiretoteachcomputationalthinkingtoyoungerandyoungerstudents.Acombinationofinstitutionalsupportforprovidingaccesstomaterials,pervasivehigh-speedInternet,andfunctioningcommunitysupportstructuresaremakingitpossibleforprogrammingeducationtobeattheforefrontoftruee-learning.
fOReCaST: COMPUTaTiOnalTHinkingaSnEWMaTH
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ImPlICaTIONS Distributed learning creates a “school” layer on the world:Learningisbeginningtolooklikeaverydifferentprocessthanithasbeeninthepastandthecombinationoftheforcesdiscussedaboveultimatelybringstheveryideaof“school”intoquestion.Concentratinglearningintoasinglelocationwasinlargepartaproductofinformationscarcity.Bringingkidstogetherwasthebestwaytoefficientlyuselimitedmaterialsandteachingresources.Teacherscouldnotbeeverywhereatonce.
Increasinglyhowever,theycanbe—oratleastteachingsystemscanbe,andthedistinctionisacriticalone.Asthecomplexityofinformationprocessingsystemsbeginstorisetothelevelofbasiceducation,thetraditionalfunctionsofclassroomswillbeembeddedintheeverydayworld.Inthiscontext,“school”couldultimatelytaketheshapeofanembeddedlearninginformationlayerintegratedintotheworldatlarge.
Concept of “teachers” evolves:Teachingwillundoubtedlystillbeacriticalrole,aschildrenwillhaveaccesstofarmoreinformationthaninthepast;accesstomentorshipinhowbesttouseandprocessthiswillbeatapremium.However,thispointstoafundamentalbifurcationthatmaytakeplace.
Inaworldofubiquitousaccesstoinformation,employingpeopletosimplypassthisinformationenmasseontogroupsofstudentsisanawfullyconspicuouswasteofresources.Morethanever,peoplewillbeneededtohelplearnersaddressthequestionofhowbesttorelatetothematerialthattheyarelearning.Deepinformationcan,afterall,beoverwhelmingand“paralysisbyanalysis”wasalreadyrecognizedasaproblemeveninthecomparativelymeagerinformationenvironmentofthemid-20thcentury.And,ifweconsiderlearningasaprocessofchangingneurons,ateacher’srolemaybelessaboutimpartinginformation,andmoreaboutcounselingchildrenhowtolivewiththeircontinuallychangingbrains.
Ubiquitous access to information reshapes definition of knowledge:Thisgetsatperhapsthemostfundamentalquestionloomingoverlearningtechnologies.Inaworldwherenearlyanypieceofinformationisavailableatanytime,whattypesofknowledgeareactuallyworthabsorbing?Thequestionismorethanacademicinmultiplesenses.Afterall,learningtechnologiesareonsomelevelneuralprostheticsandqualitativelyshapeusers’learningpatternsinadditiontoamplifyingthem.Tothedegreethateducationisaboutinformation,itwillbedirectlyinthepathofthisprocess.
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Child Persona: DiEgaBorn: August23,2013(8yearsold)Location: London,England
Diega’sStoryBabyDiega,asshe’sknownaroundtheoffice,beganprogrammingforINSCOatage4,whenaptitudetestsqualifiedherforINSCO’spre-kcodingcurriculum.INSCO’sprogramwasoneofthemostrespectedandinnovativeintheUK,incorporatinggamemechanicsandneurolearningdesignintotheeducationexperience.Diegaadvancedquickly,andbygrade2shewastheyoungestgirleveracceptedintoINSCO’sprestigiousinternshipprogram.Intheprogramshereceivedadvancedprogrammingtraining,asmallstaffofassistantsforspecialclientprojects,andatrustfundshecouldaccesswhensheturns16(ifshestaysonwithINSCO).Diegalovestoplay,likemanyofheradultcolleagues,whotreatherasafellow,albeitsmaller,adult.INSCO’scampusofferscutting-edgegamingandsportsfacilities,andevenanaward-winningchefpreparingmeals.Sherarelymisseshome.
DesignChallengeKidsenjoyplayingadultrolesandmission-basedlearning.Inthefuture,theywillbeinteractingwithadultsandparticipatinginoccupationalactivitiesmorefrequently.
Designatooltohelpkidslearnthenecessarylifeskillsthey’llneedinthisworld.Helpkidssocialize,learn,andgrowinahealthyandproductiveway.
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aRTIfaCTS fROm The fUTURe: aDaPTaPalAFRIENDTHATGROWSWITHYOU
Withnetworkaccess,newtechnologies,andmoreopportunitiestosharetheircreationswithaglobalaudience,kidsareintegratingmorefullyintotheadultworld.Buttheymaynotbereadyforthedog-eat-dogworldoftheInternet,orevenacorporateoffice.AdaptaPalisafriendandguideforkidsastheynavigatethecomplexandmorallyconfusingwatersofaglobalized,adultworld.
WhyadaptaPal?AdaptaPal’slearningalgorithmscanhelpprovidekidswithamoralfoundationthatisinlinewiththeirparents’,community,orcompany’smission.Itcaninstantiateitselfasaphysicalorvirtualbeing,andlearnsalongwithitsuser,givingcriticalfeedbackanddecision-supportwhereappropriate.
growsWithYouAdaptaPalcantakemanyformsasachildgrows:fromafuzzybabytoytoacomicbooksuperherotoateenidol.Itcanmanifestitselfinphysicalformusingprogrammablematter,orevenasaholographicprojection.
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This report has explored the “magical” world of kids’ technology.Ithasexploredtheshiftsthesetechnologiesaregenerating,withmorespecificexaminationofchangesoccurringinfourdomains:health,learning,security,andplay.Withtheseforecastsinmind,wecandrawoutsomeofthebigstories—thebroadersocialimpactsandcriticaltensionsthatwillbeemergingoverthecomingdecade,andimaginethekindsofworldsthatarepossibleforthosewhowillbeshapedbythetechnicalandcognitiveenvironmentsonthehorizon.
Thetechnological,social,andcognitiveenvironmentsthatkidsconsidernormalandnaturalwillberadicallydifferentthanthoseoftheirparents,andmaybeeventheiroldersiblings.Thetechnologicalwizardryofthenextdecadewillenchantkidsthroughouttheirlives.Asthiscohortmovesintoyoungadulthoodandintopositionsofresponsibilityinsociety,theywillcarrycertainexpectationsofcontrol,interaction,feedback,andrelationshipsthattheyarelearningnow.Whatarethehabits,expectations,affordances,andrelationshipsthatkidswillcarryforwardwiththemintoadulthood?
5CONClUSION:
Six big STORiES
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Whatkindsofbehaviorswillemergewhendelayedgratificationisnolongeraproductoflackofaccessorphysicalbarriers?Willdelaysandbarriersbepurposelydesignedintotechnologiesandsystemsinordertocreatefeelingsofachievement?Howwillreducingthebarriersbetweenthoughtandactionaffectthewaypeopleexerttheirwill,andhowwilltheseintuitiveinterfaceschangeourrelationshiptomachines?
magIC WaNDS aCCeleRaTe gRaTIfICaTIONTechnologiesaredesignedtoreducethetimeandeffortneededtoaccomplishagoal.Theyworkbyreducingthegapbetweendesireandoutcome.Anaxeallowsapersontofellatree;agas-poweredchainsawfellsitevenfaster,reducingthetimetodesiredoutcome.Asthisgapbetweendesireandactionisreducedfurtherandfurther,thethingswewantwillbegintoalmostmagicallyappear.Newtechnologies,especiallytouchandgesturalinterfaces,areshrinkingthisgap.PresidentoftheParents’ChoiceFoundationClaireGreeneobservesthatwithtouchscreensachild’s“finger becomes a magic wand.”25
Kidsaregrowingupinaworldofinstantconsumption,ambientassistance,andconstantpersuasion.TheydonothavetowaituntilSaturdaymorningtowatchtheirfavoritecartoons,oruntiltheirparentsgotothebookstoretogetastorybook.Streamingdigitalcontent,downloadableappsfortabletcomputers,and3Dprintingmachinespointtoafutureinwhichkidsareabletoaccessvastmediarepositoriesandevenmakecustomtoyswithincredibleease.Futuresandboxeswillbefilledwithclaytronicmagicdust.26Coloringbooks,storybooks,andothercontentwillbedeliveredthroughdigitalapps,andasimpletouchwillturnareddigitalcrayonblue.Gestures,touchscreens,andcomputationalapplicationswillmakeakid’sworldadanceofdesire,withdigitalsleightofhandtransformingmaterialsbeforeoureyes.Kidstodayarealreadylearningsimpleprogramminglanguagesandareevenlearningthegrayartofcomputerhacking.27Inadecade,manykidswillbeadeptat“coding”theirdigitalandphysicalspacesforexecutableoutcomes.
Designinghigh-qualityengagementisoftenpredicatedonthesuccessfultuningofthefeedbackloop—providingawell-timedandappropriateconnectionbetweenadecisionoractionandtheimpactofthataction.Gameshavebeenlaudedasprovidingaveryeffectivetypeoffeedback.Ingames,aplayeralwaysknows,orcanfigureoutquickly,howcertainactionswillmovetheplayerclosertoorfurtherawayfromagivengoal.Manyofournewtechnologies,especiallyeducationandhealthtechnologiesforkids,providerichdataandreal-timefeedbackonactivities.Somuchso,infact,thatmostkidswillbeaccustomedtoreceivingconstantaffirmationoracknowledgmentofprogress.
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Overthecomingdecade,whatnew“magictricks”willbeattemptedtorectifytheconflictingvaluesetsandlogicalinconsistenciesofparenting?Howwillrisklessrisk,structuredunstructuredtime,andmanyotherseemingcontradictionsbeconfrontedandrectified,ornot?
TOTal KID aWaReNeSS: a DIlemmaThedefaultexpectationsforbothparentingandchildhoodingeneralarechanging.Traditionalbarriersandhabituatedresponseswillappearanachronisticinthenearfuture.Forexample,theamountofparentalmonitoringofachildhasbeendeterminedbytheboundariesofphysicalspace,thelimitedavailabilityofcommunicationtechnologies,orthecostoftrackingtools.Evenifparentswantedtokeepaneyeontheirchildallthetime,the“natural”barrierstothiswouldpreventit.However,withtheimplementationofamassivesocialsurveillanceinfrastructure(includingCCTVandRFIDtags),theubiquityandlowcostofsmartphones,andthepenetrationofsocialmediaintoourdailylives(whichallowsonetotracklocationinformationandother“digitaltrails”),thepossibilityofcontinuouscopresenceand“totalkidawareness”becomesrealformillionsaroundtheworld.Withthesetrackingtoolsinplace,whatwillthedefaultmonitoringsettingbeforparentsandcaregivers?Howwillpeopledealwiththesocialpressuretokeepaconstanteyeontheirkids?Whathappensiftheydon’t?
Thesekindsofpressuresandchangingdefaultsleadtouncertainandinconsistentresponses.Whenournormsandourtechnicalcapacitiesareoutofsync,passionatesocialdebates,newlaws,andshiftingpoliticalpartnershipsarise.Practicesalsoemergethattrytorectifylogicalinconsistenciesbetweenourvaluesandouractualbehaviors.
Forexample,inregardstothesurveillanceissue,manyparentsfeeltheneedtowatchandprotecttheirchildrenasmuchastheypossiblycan.Yettheyalsoknow,andresearchisconfirming,thatoverprotectioncanleadtopsychologicalandcognitiveharmtotheirchild,andtheywanttheirchildrentohavethefreedomtoexploreandtrynew(andsometimesrisky)things.Itispartofgrowingup.Theseconflictingurgesareleadingtoattemptstocreatewhatmightbecalled“risklessrisk.”Parents,teachers,andotherswillbedesigningtoys,playgrounds,andexperiencesthatgivetheappearanceoffreedom,butthathaveinvisiblesafetynetsthatwon’tallowakidtogotoofar.
Anotherexampleistheincreasingdilemmabetweenstructuredandunstructuredplaytime.Manykidstodayhavetheirdailyschedulesandactivitiesplannedoutextensively,withplaytimeincludedasalineitem.Freerecessesarebeingcutatschools,andmanykidsgostraightfromschooltoorganizedactivitiessuchasmusicorsports,insteadofthetotallyopenplaytimebetweentheendofschoolanddinnerathomethatkidsfrompreviousgenerationsexperienced.Butagain,theperceivedbenefitsofthisopenplayarenotlostonmostparents,whoaretryingtofindwaystostructureunstructuredtimeintotheirkids’routines.
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Associalchangecontinuestoaccelerate,dueinlargeparttorapidtechnologicalinnovation,howwilladultsandkidsdealwiththeseempowerment/enslavementreactionsastheyincreaseinfrequencyandamplitude?Wherewillbalancedresponsescomefrom?
JUVeNOIa: The COmINg KIDUlaRITy?Insomeways,society’sanxietiesaboutkidsmirrorthosewehaveabouttechnologies.Wecontinuetotryandimprove,advance,andintegratethemintoourlives,butwealsofeargivingthemtoomuchpower.Weprojectourdeepestfearsontotechnologyandontochildren.Wedesigntechnologiesandsocializechildreninwaysthatreflectourcurrentvalues,beliefs,andexpectationsaboutwhattheyaresupposedtobe.Wewantthemtohavesomeautonomyandindependence,butstill“knowtheirplace.”
We,asadults,fearthecontroltheymighthaveoverus,thatwemightbehelplessagainstthem.ThenarrativearcsofThe TerminatororThe MatrixlookverymuchlikeChildren of the Corn.Or,takeanotherpowerfulimageofthefuturethesedays,the“Singularity.”TheSingularityisonepopularnametodescribeaworldinwhichgreater-than-humanmachineintelligencebringsaboutmassivetechnologicalandcivilizationalchange.Thisaccelerationhappenssofastthatchangeitselfchanges,andwecannotevenfathomitwithinourlimitedhumanmindset.Accordingtomanyproponentsofthisidea,wewillmergewith,orbesurpassedbymachines,andlifeaswehaveknownitwillbeleftinthedustbinofhistory.
So,takingthekid/techanalogyastepfurther,one(onlyslightlytongue-in-cheek)waytodescribethesuper-empowermentthatnewtechnologiesarebringingtochildrenmightbecalledthe“Kidularity.”TheKidularitywouldbethepointatwhichchildrenhavemoreproficiencyandcontroloverthetechnicalinfrastructurethanadults.Kidswillthenexerttheirsuperiorwilloversystemsandinstitutions,radicallyalteringsocialpowerdynamics.
ThisKidularity,however,mightsimplybeacontemporarybottleforveryoldwine.Considerthisstatement,
Thechildrennowhaveluxury;theyhavebadmanners,contemptforauthority,theyshowdisrespectfortheirelders,andlovechatterintheplaceofexercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households.28
ThatquoteisbySocratesinthe5thcenturyB.C.E.!Thisfearofthetyrannicalcontrolthatchildrencouldhaveoveradultsseemstohavecycledthroughhistoryandintomoderntimes.Andthemannerandpaceofsocialchangehaveonlyamplifiedthistendency.Paranoiaaboutyouthandparanoiaabouttechnologycanresonatestrongly,creatingaviciouscycleofoverreactionandirrationalprohibitions.DavidFinkelhor,DirectoroftheCrimesAgainstChildrenResearchCenter,describesthe“exaggeratedfearabouttheinfluenceofsocialchangeonchildren”as“juvenoia.”29
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Howwillthehumanrelationshiptomaterialitychangewhenmatterandthebuiltenvironmentareprogrammable?Giventheincreasingrelianceonalgorithms,mightourchoicesandlifepathsbe“programmed”intousfromayoungagebythedesigndecisionsofplatformcodersanddevicemanufacturerstoday?Or,perhaps,havewealwaysbeen“programmed”bytheculturalinstitutionsandtechnologicalinfrastructurewegrowupwith?Willtheintentionalityofthisprogrammingmakeiteasierorhardertoresist?
PROgRammaBle WORlD—PROgRammaBle KIDSWhencomputationandsensingtechnologiesareembeddedintothehardwareofourbuiltenvironment,thematerialworld(andevenpartsofthenaturalworld)becomemutable,programmablemachines.Kidswillexpecttheworldtobeprogrammable.Onenolongerneedstobeanengineeroranarchitecttobuildanewbuilding,ifinsteadalltheskillsthatareneededinvolvecodingprogramstotellmaterialstoformintocertainshapes.Theseskillswillbeaccessibletopeopleatyoungerandyoungerages.Rapidprototyping,3Dprinting,syntheticbiology,claytronicsandotherinnovationsthatbridgethegapbetweeninformationandobjectsareblurringthedistinctionsbetweentangiblematerialsandcomputationalcodes.
Whenthinkingabouttheoverallecologyofperception,theprogrammableworldhasanother,potentiallydarkerside.Withuniversalcontentfilters,algorithmicrecommendationengines,persuasivetechnology,neuromarketing,andembeddedgovernancebuiltintoourdevicesandtheenvironmentsweoccupy,theideaofafree,individual,andautonomousdecision-makermightbestrangetokidsof2021.Peopleareoffloadingandautomatingmoreandmoreofday-to-daydecisionsandincreasinglyneedfilteringtoolsandbehavioralalgorithmstohelpnavigateaverycomplexworld.
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Howwillhavingaglobalaudienceaffectachild’sdevelopmentandidentity?Howwillthistrailoftransparencyfollowachildintoadulthood?
The “glOBal” ChIlDAchild’sperceptionofspace,time,anddistanceismuchmoreconstrainedandintimatethanthatofanadult.Achild’smentalworldisusuallylimitedtotheimmediatespacesandpeoplewhosurroundthem.Thismorelimitedhorizonisbeingchangedbynetworktechnologiesthatconnectpeople,includingkids,withothersallaroundtheworld.Ratherthanexperiencedefinedbyroomsandimmediatesurroundings,kidshaveanawarenessofglobalconnectivity,dimension,anddistance.Thisnotonlychangesachild’sperceptionofdistance,butalsoradicallyexpandsconceptionsaboutspheresofinfluence,andallowsachildtoconceiveofa“global”audiencefromayoungage.KidsnowlivemuchoftheirlivesontheInternet.Billionsofpeoplehaveaccesstotheimages,creations,andperformancesofchildren.Experiencesaresharedwithhugenumbersofpeople,andachild’sgrowthanddevelopmentcanbetrackedbyfriends,family,andothers.Thisglobaltransparencyandpublicperformanceofchildhoodisunprecedentedinhistory.
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eNChaNTeD KIDSThequestionsandtensionsthatemergefromtheforecastsincludedinthisreportwillbecriticaltoaddressasweimpart(orimpose)theworldwe’vebuiltontoourchildren.Adultsoftenperceivethatsocialchangewillbeamplifiedforthenextgeneration,andfearthatthenegativechangeswillbecarriedforwardforeverbythesekids.However,kidsareinsomewaysmadetodealwithchange,andmayhavemoretosayandmorepowertoinfluencetheworldthanatanyothertimeinhistory.Thatnewempowermentwillbetherealmagickidsbringtotheworld,anditmaybethemagicthatsavestheworldfromadults.
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1 Robb,J.Brave New War: The Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization.NewYork:Wiley,2007. 2. Kunstler,J.H.The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century.NewYork:
AtlanticMonthlyPress,2005. 3. www.kzero.co.uk/blog/q2-2011-vw-cumulative-registered-accounts-reaches-1-4-billion/ 4. Gladwell,M.Outliers: The Story of Success.NewYork:Little,BrownandCompany,2008. 5. NationalCenterforHealthStatistics.Health, United States, 2010: With Special Features on Death and Dying.Hyattsville,
MD:U.S.DepartmentofHealthandHumanServices,2011. 6. ibid. 7. CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,AutismSpectrumDisorders.www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html
(updatedMay13,2010). 8. NationalCenterforHealthStatistics. Health, United States, 2010: With Special Feature on Death and Dying. Hyattsville,
MD. 2011. 9. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001985/ 10. Harrell,A.iHelpforAutism.SF Weekly.August11,2010.www.sfweekly.com/2010-08-11/news/ihelp-for-autism/2/ 11. Lanningham-Foster,L.etal.EnergyExpenditureofSedentaryScreenTimeComparedWithActiveScreenTimefor
Children.Pediatrics(December1)2006;118,6.http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/118/6/e1831.abstract 12. Stein,M.T.,andStrasburger,V.C.Max:ConcernwithSocialSkills,LanguageandExcessiveTVViewingina3YearOld.
Journal of Developmental & Behavioral Pediatrics2010;31,3:S107–S111.doi:10.1097/DBP.0b013e3181d83173.http://journals.lww.com/jrnldbp/Fulltext/2010/04001/Max__Concern_With_Social_Skills,_Language_and.29.aspx.Accessed:August31,2011.
13. FDA.FDAOutlinesOversightofMobileMedicalApplications.July19,2011.www.fda.gov/MedicalDevices/ProductsandMedicalProcedures/ucm255978.htm
14. www.gfkmri.com/PDF/MRIPR_010410_KidsAndCellPhones.pdf 15. Sanyal,S.WorldPopulation:BoomtoBust?The Business Standard.July10,2011.www.business-standard.com/india/
news/sanjeev-sanyal-world-population-boom-to-bust/442131/ 16. DatabaseofAllChildrenLaunched.BBC,May18,2009.http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/education/8052512.stm 17. Tierney,J.CanaPlaygroundbetooSafe?New York Times.July18,2011.www.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/
science/19tierney.html 18. boyd,d.TheUnintendedConsequencesofObsessingOverConsequences(orWhytoSupportYouthRiskTaking).
Apophenia.July29,2011.www.zephoria.org/thoughts/archives/2011/07/29/consequences.html 19. InstitutefortheFuture,TechnologyHorizonsProgram.2009.“BlendedReality:SuperstructingReality,Superstructing
Selves.”SR-1221.InstitutefortheFuture,TechnologyHorizonsProgram,2009. 20. Bindley,K.,andStenovec,T.Missouri‘FacebookLaw’LimitsTeacher-StudentInteractionsOnline,DrawsCriticismand
Praise.Huffington Post,August3,2011.www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/03/missouri-facebook-law_n_916716.html 21. See,forexample,Harvard’sMind,BrainandEducationMAdegreeprogram,andMind,Brain,andTeachingatJohns
HopkinsSchoolofEducation. 22. IBM.WhatisBigData?www-01.ibm.com/software/data/bigdata/ 23.MacManus,R.Cisco:50BillionThingsontheInternetby2020.ReadWriteWeb,July17,2011.www.readwriteweb.com/
archives/cisco_50_billion_things_on_the_internet_by_2020.php 24. http://llk.media.mit.edu/mission.php 25. Shuler,Carly.WhatHappensatAppCamp.June15,2011.http://www.joanganzcooneycenter.org/Cooney-Center-
Blog-155.html 26. CarnegieMellonUniversity.ClaytronicsProject.www.cs.cmu.edu/~claytronics/ 27. DefCon,theannualhackergathering,in2011includeda“kidstrack.”Ishizuka,K.LicensetoHack.School Library
Journal,October1,2011.www.libraryjournal.com/slj/home/892013-312/license_to_hack_kids_are.html.csp 28. Socrates,quotedin:Finkelhor,D.TheInternet,YouthSafety,andtheProblemof“Juvenoia.”CrimesAgainstChildren
ResearchReport,January2011.www.unh.edu/ccrc 29. Ibid.
ENd NOTES
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