AZ WFS PRESENTATION

SYSTEMS THINKING AND THE ARIZONA HOMELESS PROBLEM

Bob Bergman rlbergma@gmail.com

480-241-4651

Agenda

• Quick intro to systems thinking

• Complex systems & wicked problems

• Homeless problem revisited as example of systems thinking / system dynamics

• Example simulation for policy creation

Systems Thinking Traditional analysis focuses on the individual pieces of what is being studied. Systems thinking focuses on how the things being studied interact with the other constituents of the system.

Instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to consider larger and larger numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied.

Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons, by erwlas

Systems: Key Points

• Many of the interconnections in systems operate through the flow of information.

• The least obvious part of the system, its function or purpose, is often the most crucial determinate of the system’s behavior.

• System structure is the source of system behavior. System behavior reveals itself as a series of events over time.

Systems

Function of a system is a product of the interaction among the parts

Importance of understanding the dynamics of the whole system

Falls at the rate of 1 tile per day

Importance of understanding the dynamics of the whole system

Unintended Consequence or just bad understanding of the system?

Systems Thinking

“ Reductionism is the sin of modern life ….reducing things to their component parts and thereby, too often, missing the meaning and the message….” Charles Handy : 1932

Our Problem

Characteristics of Complex Non-Linear Systems

– Tightly Coupled “Everything influences everything else” “You can’t just do one thing”

– Dynamic Change occurs at many time scales

– Policy Resistant Many obvious solutions to problems fail or actually worsen the situation.

– Counterintuitive Cause and effect are distant in time and space

– Exhibit Tradeoffs Long term behavior is often different from short term behavior

System dynamics: is concerned with the behavior of a system over time

Social Problems are Wicked Problems

• Wicked problem is defined to describe a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements

• Wicked Problems as defined by Rittel and Webber have the following characteristics: – The solution depends on how the problem is framed and

vice-versa (i.e., the problem definition depends on the solution)

– Stakeholders have radically different world views and different frames for understanding the problem.

– The constraints that the problem is subject to and the resources needed to solve it change over time.

Wicked Problems & Systems Thinking

• The nonobvious interrelationships among elements in a complex system often thwart people’s best intentions to sustainably improve system performance.

• The complex, nonlinear problems that most foundations & gov’t organizations address can be solved most effectively by thinking systemically instead of linearly about these problems.

System Thinking vs Linear Thinking

Systems thinking creates a new language for

communicating about complexities and interdependencies

Causal Loop Diagrams

• An approach to understanding a system, qualitatively

thing 1 adds to thing 2

thing 1 subtracts from thing 2

sales adds to revenue

product sales subtracts from finished goods inventory

resources interact with productivity to add to finished goods inventory

Delay

• Thing 1 has a delayed positive influence over thing 2 (system lag time)

• The implications of interaction often take time

• Seldom does anything happen instantaneously

• Systems deceive us because of delays

Reinforcing Loop Archetype

• Growth or decline of the state of the system

Positive feedback or reinforcing loop

Balancing Loop

• Attempts to bring two things into agreement. Goal seeking.

Regulates system behavior Opposes system change from set goal Regulate system to provide stability

Negative feedback or balancing loop

System Archetypes Con’t

Quick Fix Dilemma (Shifting the Burden)

• Traditional approaches cannot be used to solve Wicked Problems. A more systems approach is necessary in order to prevent side effects or unintended consequences.

• Examples of unintended consequences: – Homeless shelters perpetuate homelessness

– Food aid leads to increased starvation

– “Get tough” prison sentences fail to reduce fear of violent crime

Homeless in the US through 2012

Current Approach For Homeless Problem

• Federal Level $Billions spent through HUD – McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act (1987) provided federal

funding for homeless students, emergency relief provisions for shelter, food, mobile health care, and transitional housing

– Assistance and Rapid Transition to Housing (HEARTH) Act of 2009 re-authorized McKinney-Vento… changed some definitions and HUDs role

• Maricopa county – Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) is a Council of

Governments that represents 27 cities—coordinates grants from HUD pertaining to homelessness

– 2014 homeless point in time count, 5,918 people had experienced homelessness in Maricopa County, with 1,053 of them reported to be sleeping on the streets and 4,865 people in shelters. Of the total people counted, 1,819 were children.

Traditional Structure

Systems Approach

• Factors that increase the risk of becoming homeless:.

• Individual risk factors

– a. Poverty, discrimination, and lack of education

– b. Substance abuse, mental illness, and domestic violence

– c. Lack of support for minors

– d. Absence of life management skills and low underlying self-esteem

– e. Vulnerability to scams, slum lords, and quick cash schemes

• Limited permanent, accessible, living wage jobs

• Financial problems stemming from the above, e.g. difficulties paying for medical emergencies and child support – essentials beyond rent and food

• Limited permanent, safe, affordable, supportive housing.

Generalized Homeless Problem

Number of

Homeless People

Temporary

Shelters

Permanent

Housing

+

-

+

-

Visibility of

Homeless Problem

+

Pressure to make

changes

+

We need to help

people now syndrome

Homelessness System in AZ

Understanding the Dynamics of the Systems for Policy Development

http://forio.com/simulate/rlbergma/