Post on 05-Jan-2016
description
2006
Paul VanRaden, John Cole, and George WiggansPaul VanRaden, John Cole, and George Wiggans
Animal Improvement Programs LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MDpaul@aipl.arsusda.gov
Stillbirth, Productive Life, and Stillbirth, Productive Life, and Net Merit UpdateNet Merit Update
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (2) P.M. VanRaden200
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Stillbirth EvaluationsStillbirth Evaluations
Percent stillbirths in first-calf heifers (%SBH), similar to calving ease (%DBH) Sire SB: 12.0% +- 1.5% Daughter SB: 12.0% +- 2.5%
Range 8 – 17% sire, 6 – 27% daughter Fewer stillbirths (avg 5%) in later parities Number of records half of calving ease Display 4 traits or only an index?
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (3) P.M. VanRaden200
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Stillbirth DataStillbirth Data
Alive Dead Died Usable
Parity 1 2 3 Records
1 88.0% 11.3% .7% 1,505,826
2+ 95.0% 3.9% 1.1% 4,202,200
Usable Records
5,384,029 348,677 29,320 5,762,026
Stillbirth Score
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (4) P.M. VanRaden200
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Stillbirth Genetic TrendStillbirth Genetic Trend
10
11
12
13
14
15
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Birth Year
Sti
llbir
th P
erce
nt
DSB
SSB
DSB = Daughter (cow’s) contribution to stillbirth rate.
SSB = Service sire’s contribution to stillbirth rate.
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (5) P.M. VanRaden200
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Distribution of ReliabilitiesDistribution of Reliabilities
<=45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-990
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 Direct
Maternal
Reliability
Percentage
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (6) P.M. VanRaden200
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Correlations Among TraitsCorrelations Among Traits(99% Rel bulls, n = 571)(99% Rel bulls, n = 571)
Daughter SB
Sire CE
Daughter CE
Sire SB 0.28 0.67 0.29
Daughter SB 0.25 0.63
Sire CE 0.46
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (7) P.M. VanRaden200
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Correlations among domestic and Correlations among domestic and Interbull stillbirth solutions Interbull stillbirth solutions ((≥ ≥ 90% Rel)90% Rel)
Sire Daughter
CHE 0.90 0.85
DNK 0.78 0.75
FIN 0.65 0.96
NLD 0.71 0.69
SWE 0.63 0.89
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (8) P.M. VanRaden200
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Economic AssumptionsEconomic Assumptions
Newborn calf value• $450 for females• $150 for males
Expenses per difficult birth (4 or 5)• $75 labor and veterinary• $100 reduced milk yield• $75 reduced fertility and longevity• 1% chance of cow death ($1800)
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (9) P.M. VanRaden200
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Calving Ability IndexesCalving Ability Indexes
Calve Ease Stillbirth Mod-el
Total MeritSire Dtr Sire Dtr
DEU 19 26 26 29 AM 7%
NLD 33 17 33 17 AM 4%
CHE 12 12 38 38 AM 0%
NOR 0 34 33 33 SM 3%
proposed
USA 25 15 15 45 SM 5%
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (10) P.M. VanRaden200
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Calving AbilityCalving Ability
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (11) P.M. VanRaden200
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Holstein Pregnancy Rate − Holstein Pregnancy Rate − Phenotypic and Genetic Trend Phenotypic and Genetic Trend
1965−20001965−2000
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Bre
ed
ing
Va
lue
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Pre
gn
an
cy
Ra
te
Breeding Value
Pregnancy Rate
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (12) P.M. VanRaden200
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Culling EmphasisCulling Emphasis
Relative emphasis % on first-parity trait
YearMilk Yield
Fat Yield
Prot. Yield SCS DO CE FS
1988 100 82 99 -19 -18 - 8 26
1992 100 76 101 -25 -23 - 9 24
1996 100 74 100 -26 -30 - 9 23
2000 100 78 95 -33 -74 -15 33
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (13) P.M. VanRaden200
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Flat PL CreditsFlat PL Credits
20 3 4 51
Years
20
140
40
60
80
100
120
0
Cre
dit
(%
)
321
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (14) P.M. VanRaden200
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Lactation Curve PL CreditsLactation Curve PL Credits
20 3 4 51
Years
20
140
40
60
80
100
120
0
Cre
dit
(%
)
321
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (15) P.M. VanRaden200
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Correlation of PL, Other TraitsCorrelation of PL, Other TraitsPTA of bulls born since 1995PTA of bulls born since 1995
Pro SCS DPR UddFeet / Leg Size DCE
Flat, 305
.07 -.28 .59 .12 .04 -.20 -.26
Curves .10 -.30 .51 .12 .05 -.21 -.27
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (16) P.M. VanRaden200
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NOT on Herdlife Builder ListNOT on Herdlife Builder List
Bull PL SCS DPR PTAT NM$
O Man +3.3 2.77 +1.9 +.48 +703
Bright +3.1 2.63 +1.7 +.96 +322
Casimir +2.6 2.71 +.4 +1.08 +444
Zenith +2.1 2.61 +1.1 +1.43 +383
Man +1.8 2.49 +.0 +1.33 +513
Boone +1.4 2.72 -.2 +.59 +542
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (17) P.M. VanRaden200
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Herdlife Builders?Herdlife Builders?
Bull PL SCS DPR PTAT NM$
Elcon -1.2 3.19 -1.3 +.97 +239
Best -.6 3.20 -.7 +1.78 +235
Hi Metro -.6 2.81 -2.8 +2.82 +64
Sable -.5 3.12 -1.3 +1.21 +358
Biaritz -.3 2.90 -1.3 +1.70 +256
Blitz +.1 3.03 -2.4 +1.86 +157
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (18) P.M. VanRaden200
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Top PL Proof StabilityTop PL Proof StabilitySelect Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90%Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90%
Bull Feb’03 Aug‘04 Feb’06
Congo +2.6 +2.9 +2.9
Brass +1.7 +2.0 +.9
Beach +1.6 +1.5 +1.1
Geno +1.6 +2.0 +1.3
Equity +1.5 +1.0 +.4
Avg REL 71% 83% 96%PL adjusted to 2005 base
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (19) P.M. VanRaden200
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Bottom PL Proof StabilityBottom PL Proof StabilitySelect Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90%Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90%
Bull Feb’03 Aug‘04 Feb’06
Talisman -2.1 -2.4 -1.5
Calvin -2.0 -1.7 -1.4
Hillcrest -1.2 -.9 -1.6
Truman -1.2 -1.1 -1.5
Derry -1.0 -1.6 -1.3
Avg REL 71% 83% 96%PL adjusted to 2005 base
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (20) P.M. VanRaden200
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Top DPR Proof StabilityTop DPR Proof StabilitySelect Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90%Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90%
Bull Feb’03 Aug‘04 Feb’06
Mozer +.5 +.8 +.6
Geno +.3 +.6 +.5
Beach +.2 +1.6 +1.4
Brass +.2 -.3 -.9
Alloy +.0 -.1 +1.2
Avg REL 67% 82% 96%DPR adjusted to 2005 base
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (21) P.M. VanRaden200
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Bottom DPR Proof StabilityBottom DPR Proof StabilitySelect Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90%Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90%
Bull Feb’03 Aug‘04 Feb’06
Hi Metro -3.4 -3.0 -2.8
Hillcrest -2.6 -2.1 -3.1
Louie -2.4 -1.9 -1.6
Calvin -2.2 -1.9 -1.8
Sovereign-Red -2.0 -1.6 -1.6
Avg REL 67% 82% 96%DPR adjusted to 2005 base
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (22) P.M. VanRaden200
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Days Open Genetic Correlations Days Open Genetic Correlations Jorjani, 2005 Interbull BulletinJorjani, 2005 Interbull Bulletin
DFS ESP GBR IRL NLD NZL USA
DFS .91 .91 .75 .93 .76 .91
ESP .91 .89 .82 .90 .83 .93
GBR .91 .89 .84 .96 .84 .85
IRL .75 .82 .84 .80 .70 .80
NLD .93 .90 .96 .80 .83 .88
NZL .76 .83 .84 .85 .83 .73
USA .91 .93 .85 .80 .88 .73
DFS = Denmark-Finland-Sweden
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (23) P.M. VanRaden200
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Predict Longevity from FertilityPredict Longevity from Fertility
Which cow fertility trait contributes most to longevity?• Days to first insemination (DFI)• Non−return rate (NR)
Longevity depends most on DFI• Correlations = .33 DFI, .11 NR in USA• 23% DFI and 12% NR used in CAN• Only DFI used in NLD
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (24) P.M. VanRaden200
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Fertility Trait IndexesFertility Trait Indexes% relative emphasis% relative emphasis
Trait NLD ITA ESP CAN DNK1 DO2 NR3
Days 1st Insem. 54 56 52 25 15 69
Non− Return 46 44 48 65 70 31 100
Heifer fertility 10 15
1Time from first to last insemination replaces non−return rate2Countries that evaluate only days open or calving interval3Countries that evaluate only non−return rate or number of inseminations
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (25) P.M. VanRaden200
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Milk, Fat, and Protein PricesMilk, Fat, and Protein PricesFederal Order Class III (Cheese)Federal Order Class III (Cheese)
Year Milk Fat Protein Carrier SCS
2000 9.74 1.25 1.69 .0030 .14
2001 13.10 1.85 1.96 .0075 .17
2002 10.42 1.19 1.97 .0035 .14
2003 11.42 1.21 2.38 .0005 .16
2004 15.39 2.05 2.60 .0042 .20
2005 14.05 1.71 2.46 .0035 .18
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (26) P.M. VanRaden200
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Proposed and Current PricesProposed and Current PricesNet Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid MeritNet Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid Merit
Year Milk Fat Prot Carrier SCS
2006 NM 12.70 1.50 1.90 1.75 .18
2006 CM 12.70 1.50 2.80 -.95 .18
2006 FM 12.70 1.50 .50 5.95 .18
2003 NM 12.70 1.30 2.30 1.25 .18
2003 CM 12.70 1.30 3.00 -.85 .18
2003 FM 12.70 1.30 1.00 5.15 .18
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (27) P.M. VanRaden200
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Changes expected for AugustChanges expected for August
Stillbirth evaluation• Include in calving ability index
New definition of productive life• Credit for longer lactations• Lower correlation with fertility• Standard deviation 1.43 times larger
Update NM$ economic values
Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (28) P.M. VanRaden200
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Carlin M Ivanhoe Bell – BL CVCarlin M Ivanhoe Bell – BL CV