The Energy – Climate Change Nexus

Dr David BrockwayCHIEF CSIRO Energy Technology25 October 2007

CSIRO.

Energy & Society

Australia & Asia

Energy Security

Wealth Creation

Clean Energy

CSIRO.

Global Temperature Rise(Temperature Anomalies from 1961 – 1990 Mean)

Data supplied: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

CSIRO.

Modern lifestyles are energy demanding

Energy consumption per person

Energy consumption per dollar of GDP

150

100

50

Index

1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02 2008-09 2019-20

Historical Medium term

Longer term

CSIRO.Source: AGO (2002) National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

25

6

38

OtherNat Gas

Petroleum

Coal

5250

40

30

20

10

0

14

18

7

3 32

Perc

ent

Stat

iona

ry

Ener

gy

(Ele

ctric

ity)

Tran

spor

t

Agr

icul

ture

Land

Use

, Fo

rest

ry

Was

te

Oth

er

Indu

stria

l

GHG Emissions Sources 2000

CSIRO.

CSIRO R&D Priority Outcomes

Cut emissions from energy generation and use

Increase Australia’s transport fuel self-sufficiency

Enhance the value of Australia’s energy endowment

Australia & Asia

CSIRO.

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mt C

O2e

Base case (BAU) Projection

50% below 1990 emission levels

Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG emissions

50% Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

CSIRO.

Distributed Generation and Energy Management

Two way power flowSmart meters

Intelligent agentsPower arbitrage

-Base load power generation ~ 600 MW

Commercial building

Hospital / shopping complex

Apartment block

transmission lines

Commercial building

House / residential

suburb

Industrial complex / factory

Hospital / shopping complex

Apartment block

transmission lines

Wind

Solar cells

Wind

Solar cells

Wind

Solar cells

Wind farm

Solar cells

2 way grid

The future distributed power

system

CSIRO.

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mt C

O2e

Base case (BAU) Projection

50% below 1990 emission levels

Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG emissions

Energy Management

Energy efficiency & structural...

Energy Efficiency and Energy Management

CSIRO.

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mt C

O2e

Base case (BAU) Projection

50% below 1990 emission levels

Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG emissions

Energy Management

Energy efficiency & structural...

Distributed generationSmart house

Distributed Generation

CSIRO.

CSIRO.

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mt C

O2e

Base case (BAU) Projection

50% below 1990 emission levels

Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG emissions

Energy Management

Energy efficiency & structural...

Distributed generationSmart house

Solar thermal demonstration

Renewables

Role of Renewables

CSIRO.

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mt C

O2e

Base case (BAU) Projection

50% below 1990 emission levels

Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG emissions

Energy Management

Energy efficiency & structural...

Distributed generationSmart house

Solar thermal demonstration

Renewables

Nuclear

The Entry of Nuclear

CSIRO.

Thermal efficiency 28 - 33%CO2 emissions <100 kg/MWh

Coal

Generator

ElectricityLow CO2 flue gas

Flyash

Boiler

Reboiler

C.W.

Absorber

Flue gaspretreatme

nt

CO2

Stripper

Flue Gas

Cleaner Fossil Fuel Power Plants

Liquid CO2

CSIRO.

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mt C

O2e

Fossil

Capturing and long term storage of CO2

Base case (BAU) Projection

50% below 1990 emission levels

Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG emissions

Energy Management

Energy efficiency & structural...

Distributed generationSmart house

Solar thermal demonstration

Renewables

Nuclear

The Major Role of Cleaner Fossil Energy

CSIRO.

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mt C

O2e

Fossil

Capturing and long term storage of CO2

Base case (BAU) Projection

50% below 1990 emission levels

Flagship trajectory to achieve 50% reduction in GHG emissions

Energy Management

Energy efficiency & structural...

Distributed generationSmart house

Solar thermal demonstration

Renewables

Nuclear

Alternative fuels & vehicles

Ultrabattery deployment

Synthetic fuels gaining market share

Reduced travel

More Efficient Transport

CSIRO.

Achievements

CSIRO.

Australian R&D Capability is Under Threat