Post on 19-Jan-2016
Identifying Driving Forces
Purpose:Purpose: To identify the key trends and dynamics that will
determine the course of the future.
Steps:Steps:
1. Identify the drivers, in the context of the scenario themes. Consider key historical events, trends and underlying causes.
2. For each driver, describe briefly the range of possible ways it could evolve in the future.
Driving Forces
Economy
Demography
Technology
GovernanceEnvironment &Climate Change
Society, Culture& Tradition
Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (1)• Economy
– Sector based production( Agricultural Production, Mining, tourism, fisheries etc)
– Infrastructure development
– GDP
– Globalization
– Markets and prices
– Growth rate
– Economic dev goals (Poverty reduction, Privatization)
– International Cooperation
– Foreign investors
Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (2)• Demography (Population)
– Population growth– Population density– Population Distribution – Rate of urbanization– Fertility rate– Population structure (Age,
Gender)– Migration patterns– Life expectancy
Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (3)• Culture and Tradition
– Beliefs – forest protection – Traditional ceremonies and
practices– Traditional dances – use of natural
resources– Tribal heritage – Customary land tenure– Extraction of Medicinal plants – Religion– Free ranging
Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (4)• Technology
– IKS– ICT– CDM– Green economy– Agrochemicals, agroforestry– Land mngt technologies– Use of machinery – Construction industry tech
Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (5)• Environment and Climate Change
– Land degradation (erosion, deforestation, salinisation)
– Pollution (chemical waste, water air, sound pollution, loud noise)
– Climate change– Desertification– Extreme environ hazards (floods,
drought)
Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (6)• Social Change
– Education (adult, formal, informal, non formal)
– Consumption patterns– Brain drain, brain gain– Improvement in health systems– Refugees
Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (7)• Governance
– Regional treaties and conventions
– Multilateral env agreements– Decentralization– Political will– Democratization process– Economic policies– Public awareness , local
participation in env mngt
Scenario Framework• The framework for MEAO scenario
development has been tailored to AEO and IEA in three ways:
1. It is explicitly policy-relevant;
2. It is intended to be comprehensive enough to allow a broad range of issues that arise in sustainability analyses; and
3. It is presented as a participatory, stakeholder-driven process.
Select Critical Uncertainties
Purpose:Purpose: To select critical uncertainties, and use these to define the scenario framework.
Output:Output: Two (or three) critical uncertainties, selected from among the drivers developed in Step 5.
A critical uncertainty is a driver that is especially important in determining how the future evolves, but whose future
development is highly unpredictable.
Selecting Critical UncertaintiesFor each driving force:
1. Consider the degree of uncertaintydegree of uncertainty. Is there a great deal of uncertainty, or relatively little?
2. Consider the relative impact/importancerelative impact/importance of this driving force into the future.
3.3. Plot the driving forcePlot the driving force on the chart of impact/importance versus uncertainty.
4. Identify the two or three driving forcestwo or three driving forces that are highest impact and highest
uncertainty.
Which Driving Forces are Critical Uncertainties
Uncertainty
Imp
ort
ance
Social Change
Economy
Plot the Scenario Axes - Framework
“Scenario A”“Scenario B”
“Scenario C” “Scenario D”
Critical Uncertainty #2
Cri
tica
l U
nce
rtai
nty
#1
Example 2: Malawi’s scenario
MA: From Present to Future
Illustration: Qualitative Trends in Drivers
GROUP WORK 2Qualitative Trends of Key Drivers
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Demography
Economy
Environment
Technology
Culture and Tradition
Society
Governance
Elaborating the Scenarios (1)For each scenario, consider 5
areas:
1. Current state: Aspects of today’s world that represent characteristics of the scenario being developed.
2. End picture: The end vision of the scenario, assuming that critical uncertainties have been resolved.
3. Timeline: Connect the current state to the end picture through a plausible historical route
Elaborate the Scenarios (2)
4. Create a coherent narrative using current state, end picture and timeline. Add detail and texture.
5. Create a name for each scenario that captures the essence of the scenario and differentiates it clearly from others.
Elaborating ScenarioBoundaries•Spatial•Temporal
Boundaries•Spatial•Temporal
Story of the Present•Historic context•Important features•Actors and events•Major issues of concern
Story of the Present•Historic context•Important features•Actors and events•Major issues of concern
Driving Forces•Trends and processes at play
Driving Forces•Trends and processes at play
Important themes•Important elements of the story
Important themes•Important elements of the story
Critical Uncertainties•Resolution affects future course
Critical Uncertainties•Resolution affects future course
StakeholdersStakeholders
Narrative•Coherent visionQuantification•Technical rigor
Narrative•Coherent visionQuantification•Technical rigor
Elaboration Approaches: Forecast & Backcasting
?
?
Forecasting Where is society going?
Backcasting Where do we want to go? How do we get there?
Where do we want not to go? How do we avoid getting there?
GROUP WORK 3: Elaborating Scenarios
Form Four Groups Representing the chapter Working groups
1.Elaborate on each Scenario responding to the instructions supplied2.Present the highlights of your elaborate scenario storylines
Undertaking Quantitative Analysis
Purpose:Purpose: To enhance and elaborate the scenario narrative with quantitative information.
Output:Output: Specific, scientifically defensible quantitative information.
Quantification in Scenario BuildingAim: Aim:
To numerically express inputs, science-based relationships, assumptions, and results.
Quantitative analysis should use tools that:
• Can be applied and compared across widely differing scenarios. They should not artificially constrain your scenarios.
• Are as simple, transparent, and user-friendly as possible. Can yield clear, useful results.
Example: Change in Total Population
Example: Absolute GDP Per capita
Example: Area of Bio-energy Crops
Exploring Policies
Purpose:Purpose: To explore the feasibility, appropriateness, effectiveness, and robustness of various policies.
Key Points: Key Points: • Policies may be introduced at an
early stage and may represent an uncertainty defining a scenario,
• Policies may be introduced as part of implementing a scenario.
• Policies should be analysed, including assessment against goals and targets.