SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO...
-
Upload
brandon-berry -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO...
![Page 1: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
SCENARIO PLANNINGSCENARIO PLANNING
![Page 2: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
THE PURPOSE OF THIS THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TOWORKSHOP IS TO
• UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNINGBEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING
• PRODUCE A SCENARIO ON A PRODUCE A SCENARIO ON A PARTICULAR ISSUE OF COMMON PARTICULAR ISSUE OF COMMON
INTERESTINTEREST
• IN A DEFINED TIME FRAMEIN A DEFINED TIME FRAME
![Page 3: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
IN ORDER TO GUARANTEE IN ORDER TO GUARANTEE COMPETITIVENESSCOMPETITIVENESS
ENTERPRISES MUST IDENTIFY ENTERPRISES MUST IDENTIFY SUCCESS POTENTIALS VERY SUCCESS POTENTIALS VERY
EARLYEARLY
![Page 4: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
THIS HAS BEEN CALLEDTHIS HAS BEEN CALLED
COMPETITION FOR INDUSTRY COMPETITION FOR INDUSTRY FORESIGHTFORESIGHT
![Page 5: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
ENTERPRISES SHOULD NOT ENTERPRISES SHOULD NOT LOOK FOR ONE VISIONARY LOOK FOR ONE VISIONARY
VIEWVIEW
![Page 6: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
AS IT WILL CORRESPOND TO AS IT WILL CORRESPOND TO THE GENERALLY EXPECTED THE GENERALLY EXPECTED
VIEWVIEW
![Page 7: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
INSTEAD THEY SHOULD INSTEAD THEY SHOULD TRY TO ACQUIRE VARIOUS TRY TO ACQUIRE VARIOUS
VIEWSVIEWS
WHICH DESCRIBE THE WHOLE WHICH DESCRIBE THE WHOLE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITIESWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITIES
![Page 8: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
THE FUTURE IS NOT A SINGLE THE FUTURE IS NOT A SINGLE UNIFORM STATEUNIFORM STATE
![Page 9: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
BUT AN ONGOING BUT AN ONGOING PROCESSPROCESS
THAT REFLECTS THE THAT REFLECTS THE PLENITUDE OF HUMAN LIFEPLENITUDE OF HUMAN LIFE
![Page 10: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
THE FUTURE INCLUDESTHE FUTURE INCLUDES
• ALL THE THINGS WE LEARN ABOUT ALL THE THINGS WE LEARN ABOUT OURSELVES AND THE WORLDOURSELVES AND THE WORLD
• ALL THE INCREMENTAL ALL THE INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS WE DISCOVERIMPROVEMENTS WE DISCOVER
• ALL NEW IDEASALL NEW IDEAS
• ALL TE NEW WAYS WE EXPRESS ALL TE NEW WAYS WE EXPRESS THEM AND RECOMBINE THEMTHEM AND RECOMBINE THEM
![Page 11: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
THE FUTURE IS A SYSTEMTHE FUTURE IS A SYSTEM
• NATURALNATURAL
• OUT OF ANYONE’S CONTROLOUT OF ANYONE’S CONTROL
• DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY AND DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY AND TRENDSTRENDS
• AND INDIVIDUAL ATTEMPTS TO AND INDIVIDUAL ATTEMPTS TO CONTROL ITCONTROL IT
![Page 12: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
SCCENARIOSSCCENARIOS
ARE ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF ARE ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF THE FUTURETHE FUTURE
![Page 13: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
SCENARIO PLANNING SCENARIO PLANNING ORIGINATES FROMORIGINATES FROM
HERMAN KAHN andHERMAN KAHN and
ANTHONY WIENERANTHONY WIENER
![Page 14: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
THE SCHEMES OF OUR THE SCHEMES OF OUR MENTAL MAPSMENTAL MAPS
LEAD US TO IMAGINE LEAD US TO IMAGINE FUTURES THAT ARE SPECIFIC FUTURES THAT ARE SPECIFIC
TO EACH ONE OF USTO EACH ONE OF US
![Page 15: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
AND THAT DEPEND ON OUR AND THAT DEPEND ON OUR PERCEPTIONS OF THE PASTPERCEPTIONS OF THE PAST
![Page 16: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
BASED ON WHICHBASED ON WHICH
WE MAKE ASSUMPTIONSWE MAKE ASSUMPTIONS
![Page 17: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
THE FUTURE TELLS US WHO THE FUTURE TELLS US WHO WE AREWE ARE
• AS INDIVIDUALSAS INDIVIDUALS
• AS A CIVILIZATIONAS A CIVILIZATION
![Page 18: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
DEPENDING ON PERSONAL DEPENDING ON PERSONAL INCLINATIONSINCLINATIONS
THE FUTURE WILL BE THE FUTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY ROSY OR EXTREMELY ROSY OR
EXTREMELY GRIMEXTREMELY GRIM
![Page 19: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
WE CAN SEE IT ASWE CAN SEE IT AS
• STATICSTATIC
• REGULATEDREGULATED
• ENGINEEREDENGINEERED
![Page 20: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
OR WE CAN SEE IT ASOR WE CAN SEE IT AS
• DYNAMICDYNAMIC
• IN CONSTANT CREATIONIN CONSTANT CREATION
• TO BE DISCOVERED AS A PLACE OF TO BE DISCOVERED AS A PLACE OF LEARNINGLEARNING
• A PLACE OF INTENSE COMPETITIONA PLACE OF INTENSE COMPETITION
![Page 21: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
TECHNOLOGY CAN BE SEEN TECHNOLOGY CAN BE SEEN ASAS
• AN EXPRESSION OF HUMAN AN EXPRESSION OF HUMAN CREATIVITYCREATIVITY
• LEADING TO AN INVITING FUTURELEADING TO AN INVITING FUTURE
![Page 22: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
OR AS A SCARY KILLING OR AS A SCARY KILLING THINGTHING
![Page 23: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
A TRAP WE MUST AVOIDA TRAP WE MUST AVOID
![Page 24: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
IS FALLING INTO SCIENCE IS FALLING INTO SCIENCE FICTIONFICTION
![Page 25: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
IF ONE DROPS IF ONE DROPS FUNDAMENTAL SCIENTIFIC FUNDAMENTAL SCIENTIFIC
CONSTRAINTSCONSTRAINTS
ANYTHING BECOMES ANYTHING BECOMES POSSIBLEPOSSIBLE
![Page 26: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
THE FUTURE IS NOT THE FUTURE IS NOT PREDICTABLEPREDICTABLE
![Page 27: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
SCENARIO PLANNING SCENARIO PLANNING GIVES USGIVES US
DIFFERENT SIGHTS OF THE DIFFERENT SIGHTS OF THE FUTUREFUTURE
![Page 28: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
SCENARIO PLANNING IS SCENARIO PLANNING IS MORE A THINKING INTO THE MORE A THINKING INTO THE
FUTUREFUTURE
THAN A PREDICTIONTHAN A PREDICTION
![Page 29: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
SCENARIOS CAN BE SCENARIOS CAN BE CLASSIFIED INTO THREE MAJOR CLASSIFIED INTO THREE MAJOR
CATEGORIESCATEGORIES• INTUITIVE LOGIC BASED ON INTUITIVE LOGIC BASED ON
ORGANIZED COHERENT AND PLAUSIBLE ORGANIZED COHERENT AND PLAUSIBLE THEMESTHEMES
• TREND-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON TREND-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF
DIFFERENT KEY FACTORSDIFFERENT KEY FACTORS• CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS COMBINING ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS COMBINING DIFFERENT KEY FACTORS IN NEW WAYS DIFFERENT KEY FACTORS IN NEW WAYS
![Page 30: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
INTUITIVE LOGIC AND INTUITIVE LOGIC AND TREND IMPACT TREND IMPACT
SCENARIOSSCENARIOS
ARE STRATEGIC THINKING ARE STRATEGIC THINKING TOOLSTOOLS
![Page 31: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS SCENARIOSSCENARIOS
FOCUS ON QUANTITATIVE FOCUS ON QUANTITATIVE PROJECTIONSPROJECTIONS
![Page 32: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
THE FUTURE MAY BE THE FUTURE MAY BE CONSIDERED AS EMERGING CONSIDERED AS EMERGING FROM THE INTERACTIION OFFROM THE INTERACTIION OF
• EVENTSEVENTS
• TRENDSTRENDS
• IMAGESIMAGES
• ACTIONSACTIONS
![Page 33: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
EVENTS ARE THOSE EVENTS ARE THOSE THINGS WHICH MAKE THINGS WHICH MAKE
MANY PEOPLEMANY PEOPLE
DOUBT THE EFFICACY OF DOUBT THE EFFICACY OF THINKING ABOUT THE THINKING ABOUT THE
FUTURE AT ALLFUTURE AT ALL
![Page 34: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
THINGS JUST SEEM TO THINGS JUST SEEM TO HAPPENHAPPEN
![Page 35: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
WHAT IS GOING TO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXTHAPPEN NEXT
SEEMS UTTERLY SEEMS UTTERLY UNKNOWABLEUNKNOWABLE
![Page 36: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
SEPTEMBER 11, 2002SEPTEMBER 11, 2002
IS AN EXAMPLE OF AN EVENTIS AN EXAMPLE OF AN EVENT
![Page 37: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
THE 1929 STOCK MARKET THE 1929 STOCK MARKET CRASHCRASH
IS ANOTHER EXAMPLEIS ANOTHER EXAMPLE
![Page 38: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
SOMETIMES THE SOMETIMES THE SIGNIFCANCE OF AN SIGNIFCANCE OF AN
EVENTEVENT
IS NOT IMMEDIATEIS NOT IMMEDIATE
![Page 39: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
AN EXAMPLE WOULD BEAN EXAMPLE WOULD BE
THE DISCOVERY OF FIRETHE DISCOVERY OF FIRE
![Page 40: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
OR THE INVENTION OF THE OR THE INVENTION OF THE COMPUTERCOMPUTER
![Page 41: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
THERE ARE THREE TYPES OF THERE ARE THREE TYPES OF TRENDSTRENDS
• A CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT A CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT AND OF THE PASTAND OF THE PAST
• CYCLICAL TRENDSCYCLICAL TRENDS
• EMERGING ISSUES OR EMERGING ISSUES OR DISCONTINUITIESDISCONTINUITIES
![Page 42: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
TRENDS CONTINUING THE TRENDS CONTINUING THE PRESENT AND THE PAST CAN PRESENT AND THE PAST CAN
BE IDENTIFIED THROUGHBE IDENTIFIED THROUGH• CONTEMPLATING OUR OWN LIFE CONTEMPLATING OUR OWN LIFE
EXPERIENCESEXPERIENCES
• SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSISSOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
• HISTORICAL ANALYSISHISTORICAL ANALYSIS
![Page 43: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
AN EXAMPLE ISAN EXAMPLE IS
THE CONTINUED THE CONTINUED PRIVATIZATION OF SOCIETYPRIVATIZATION OF SOCIETY
![Page 44: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
STARTED IN ENGLANDSTARTED IN ENGLAND
IN THE SIXTEENTH CENTURYIN THE SIXTEENTH CENTURY
![Page 45: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
WITH THE LAW ON WITH THE LAW ON ENCLOSURESENCLOSURES
![Page 46: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
THESE LAWS PRIVATIZEDTHESE LAWS PRIVATIZED
THE COMMON FEUDAL LANDSTHE COMMON FEUDAL LANDS
![Page 47: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
AND ALLOWEDAND ALLOWED
THE PURCHASING AND THE PURCHASING AND SELLING OF THESE LANDSSELLING OF THESE LANDS
![Page 48: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
THIS RESULTED IN A THIS RESULTED IN A DRAMATIC CHANGEDRAMATIC CHANGE
IN THE RELATIONSHIP IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MEN AND LANDBETWEEN MEN AND LAND
![Page 49: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
MEN NO LONGER BELONGED MEN NO LONGER BELONGED TO THE LANDTO THE LAND
![Page 50: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
THEY OWNED ITTHEY OWNED IT
![Page 51: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
THE RELATIONSHIP THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PEOPLEBETWEEN PEOPLE
BECAME MONETARYBECAME MONETARY
![Page 52: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
MEDIEVAL SOCIETY WASMEDIEVAL SOCIETY WAS
COMMUNALCOMMUNAL
![Page 53: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
PEASANTS POOLED THEIR PEASANTS POOLED THEIR LANDLAND
![Page 54: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
CATTLE GRAZED ON CATTLE GRAZED ON COMMUNAL LANDCOMMUNAL LAND
![Page 55: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
BY ENCLOSING LAND WIH BY ENCLOSING LAND WIH THE USE OF OBSTACLESTHE USE OF OBSTACLES
FREE MOVEMENT OF MEN FREE MOVEMENT OF MEN AND ANIMALS WAS HINDEREDAND ANIMALS WAS HINDERED
![Page 56: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
THESE LAWS WERE PASSED THESE LAWS WERE PASSED IN MOST EUROPEAN IN MOST EUROPEAN
COUNTRIESCOUNTRIES
FROM THE SIXTEENTH TO THE FROM THE SIXTEENTH TO THE NINETEENTH CENTURYNINETEENTH CENTURY
![Page 57: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
AND LED TO URBANIZATIONAND LED TO URBANIZATION
![Page 58: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
TODAY, ALL THE LAND IN TODAY, ALL THE LAND IN THE WORLDTHE WORLD
IS OWNED BY SOMEONEIS OWNED BY SOMEONE
![Page 59: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
EXCEPT IN THE ANTARTICEXCEPT IN THE ANTARTIC
![Page 60: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
OTHER SPACES HAVE BEEN OTHER SPACES HAVE BEEN ENCLOSEDENCLOSED
• OCEANSOCEANS
• AIR SPACEAIR SPACE
• HERTZIAN SPACEHERTZIAN SPACE
![Page 61: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
SINCE 1971 ENCLOSURES SINCE 1971 ENCLOSURES ARE BEING SET UPARE BEING SET UP
AROUND OUR GENETIC MAKE-AROUND OUR GENETIC MAKE-UPUP
![Page 62: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
IN 1971 ANANDA IN 1971 ANANDA CHAKRABARTYCHAKRABARTY
ATTEMPTED TO PATENT AN ATTEMPTED TO PATENT AN OIL-ABSORBING BACTERIAOIL-ABSORBING BACTERIA
![Page 63: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
INITIALLY THE INITIALLY THE APPLICATION WAS APPLICATION WAS
REJECTEDREJECTED
SINCE US LEGISLATION DOES SINCE US LEGISLATION DOES NOT ALLOW THE NOT ALLOW THE
PATENTABILITY OF LIVING PATENTABILITY OF LIVING ORGANISMSORGANISMS
![Page 64: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
AFTER SEVERAL COURT AFTER SEVERAL COURT CASESCASES
IN 1980 THE SUPREME COURT IN 1980 THE SUPREME COURT GRANTED THE PATENTGRANTED THE PATENT
![Page 65: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
IN 1995 THE US PATENT IN 1995 THE US PATENT OFFICEOFFICE
ISSUED THE FIRT PATENT ON ISSUED THE FIRT PATENT ON A CELL LINE TAKEN ON AN A CELL LINE TAKEN ON AN INDIGENOUS POPULATIONINDIGENOUS POPULATION
![Page 66: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
THE US GOVERNMENT THE US GOVERNMENT WITHDREW THIS PATENTWITHDREW THIS PATENT
UNDER PRESSURE FROM UNDER PRESSURE FROM SOUTH PACIFIC STATESSOUTH PACIFIC STATES
![Page 67: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
CYCLICAL TRENDSCYCLICAL TRENDS
HAVE THEIR ROOTS IN THE HAVE THEIR ROOTS IN THE DISTANT PASTDISTANT PAST
![Page 68: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
THEY ARE IDENTIFIED THEY ARE IDENTIFIED THROUGHTHROUGH
HISTORICAL ANALYSISHISTORICAL ANALYSIS
![Page 69: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
EUGENISMEUGENISM
IS AN EXAMPLEIS AN EXAMPLE
![Page 70: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
THE AMERICAN THE AMERICAN INTELLIGENTSIA FAVORS INTELLIGENTSIA FAVORS
EUGENISMEUGENISM
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURYTHE TWENTIETH CENTURY
![Page 71: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
IT APPEARS EVERY TIME IT APPEARS EVERY TIME SOCIETY IS UNABLE TO SOCIETY IS UNABLE TO
CONTAINCONTAIN• POVERTYPOVERTY
• CRIMINALITYCRIMINALITY
• SOCIAL TURBULENCESOCIAL TURBULENCE
![Page 72: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
THE 1929 CRISIS SHOWED THE 1929 CRISIS SHOWED ALL PEOPLEALL PEOPLE
SUFFERED ALIKESUFFERED ALIKE
![Page 73: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
SOCIAL SOLIDARITYSOCIAL SOLIDARITY
DISPLACED EUGENISMDISPLACED EUGENISM
![Page 74: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
HITLER’S EUGENIST LAWSHITLER’S EUGENIST LAWS
ALSO LED THE US TO REACT ALSO LED THE US TO REACT NEGATIVELYNEGATIVELY
![Page 75: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
EUGENISTIC EUGENISTIC CONSIDERATIONSCONSIDERATIONS
ARE CENTRAL TO ARE CENTRAL TO BIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY
![Page 76: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
EMERGING ISSUES ARE EMERGING ISSUES ARE EVENTS IN THE FUTUREEVENTS IN THE FUTURE
THAT ARE BARELY VISIBLE IN THAT ARE BARELY VISIBLE IN THE PRESENT AND NON-THE PRESENT AND NON-EXISTENT IN THE PASTEXISTENT IN THE PAST
![Page 77: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
EXAMPLES OF EMERGING EXAMPLES OF EMERGING ISSUES AREISSUES ARE
• NEW TECHNOLOGIESNEW TECHNOLOGIES
• CHANGES IN OUR LIVING CHANGES IN OUR LIVING ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT
![Page 78: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
WE ALL HAVE A PERSONALWE ALL HAVE A PERSONAL
IMAGE OF THE FUTUREIMAGE OF THE FUTURE
![Page 79: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
AND WE TAKE ACTIONSAND WE TAKE ACTIONS
WITH THE INTENTION OF WITH THE INTENTION OF INFLUENCING THAT FUTUREINFLUENCING THAT FUTURE
![Page 80: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
BIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY
![Page 81: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
AN EVENT THAT COULD AN EVENT THAT COULD IMPACT BIOTECHNOLOGYIMPACT BIOTECHNOLOGY
WOULD BE THE DISCOVERY WOULD BE THE DISCOVERY OF UNCONVENTIONAL FORMS OF UNCONVENTIONAL FORMS
OF LIFEOF LIFE
![Page 82: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
A CYCLICAL TREND A CYCLICAL TREND IMPACTING IMPACTING
BIOTECHNOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY
IS THE MOVE AWAY FROM IS THE MOVE AWAY FROM NATURAL TO SYNTHETIC NATURAL TO SYNTHETIC
PRODUCTSPRODUCTS
![Page 83: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
AND BACK AGAIN TO NATURAL AND BACK AGAIN TO NATURAL PRODUCTSPRODUCTS
![Page 84: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
ACCORDING TO A 2001 ACCORDING TO A 2001 McKINSEY REPORTMcKINSEY REPORT
BY 2010 BIOTECHNOLOGY WILL BE A BY 2010 BIOTECHNOLOGY WILL BE A COMPETITIVE WAY OF PRODUCING COMPETITIVE WAY OF PRODUCING ABOUT A FIFTH OF THE WORLD’S ABOUT A FIFTH OF THE WORLD’S
CHEMICAL OUTPUT BY VALUECHEMICAL OUTPUT BY VALUE
![Page 85: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
AN EMERGING TREND OR AN EMERGING TREND OR DISCONTINUITYDISCONTINUITY
IS THE USE OF IS THE USE OF BIOTECHNOLOGY FOR BIOTECHNOLOGY FOR ENERGY GENERATIONENERGY GENERATION
![Page 86: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
AND IN PARTICULARAND IN PARTICULAR
HYDROGENHYDROGEN
![Page 87: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
THROUGH THE CREATION THROUGH THE CREATION OF A BACTERIAOF A BACTERIA
WITH A COMPLETELY WITH A COMPLETELY SYNTHETIC GENOMESYNTHETIC GENOME
![Page 88: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
OTHER ENTIRELYOTHER ENTIRELY
NEW PRODUCTSNEW PRODUCTS
![Page 89: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
SUCH ASSUCH AS
LIVING FUEL CELLSLIVING FUEL CELLS
![Page 90: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
A HAUNTING IMAGEA HAUNTING IMAGE
FRANKENSTEINFRANKENSTEIN
![Page 91: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
MAN SUBSTITUTING MAN SUBSTITUTING HIMSELFHIMSELF
TO DIVINE CREATIONTO DIVINE CREATION
![Page 92: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
A MAD SCIENTISTA MAD SCIENTIST
HEEDLESS OF HUMANITY’S HEEDLESS OF HUMANITY’S GOODGOOD
![Page 93: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
A MODERN PROMETHEUSA MODERN PROMETHEUS
![Page 94: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
MAN IS NOT ABOUT TO MAN IS NOT ABOUT TO CREATE HUMANSCREATE HUMANS
WITH OFF-THE-SHELF WITH OFF-THE-SHELF CHEMICALSCHEMICALS
![Page 95: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
BUT MAY SOON BE ABLEBUT MAY SOON BE ABLE
TO MANIPULATE HUMAN LIFETO MANIPULATE HUMAN LIFE
![Page 96: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
OR BREAK INTER-SPECIES OR BREAK INTER-SPECIES BARRIERSBARRIERS
![Page 97: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
AND CREATE NEW LIFE AND CREATE NEW LIFE FORMSFORMS
![Page 98: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
ONE OF THE FIRST ONE OF THE FIRST EXPERIMENTS WAS EXPERIMENTS WAS
UNDERTAKEN IN 1984UNDERTAKEN IN 1984
IN GREAT BRITAIN WITH THE IN GREAT BRITAIN WITH THE CREATION OF A SHEEP-GOATCREATION OF A SHEEP-GOAT
![Page 99: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
RECENTLY A HUMAN EAR HAS RECENTLY A HUMAN EAR HAS BEEN GROWNBEEN GROWN
![Page 100: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
ON THE BACK OF MICEON THE BACK OF MICE
![Page 101: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
WHETHER MORE SUCH WHETHER MORE SUCH COMBINATIONS WILL BE COMBINATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLEPOSSIBLE
DEPENDS ON NATUREDEPENDS ON NATURE
![Page 102: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
AND GOVERNMENTAL AND GOVERNMENTAL ACTIONSACTIONS
![Page 103: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
OTHER GOVERNMENTAL OTHER GOVERNMENTAL ACTIONS INCLUDEACTIONS INCLUDE
• POSSIBLE BANNINGPOSSIBLE BANNING
• AVAILABILITY OF FEDERAL FUNDSAVAILABILITY OF FEDERAL FUNDS
![Page 104: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
AND THE PATENTABILITY OF AND THE PATENTABILITY OF LIVING ORGANISMSLIVING ORGANISMS
![Page 105: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
WITH THE EXCEPTION, AT WITH THE EXCEPTION, AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING, LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING,
OF HUMAN BEINGSOF HUMAN BEINGS
![Page 106: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
AS THIS WOULD BE CONTRARY AS THIS WOULD BE CONTRARY TO THE ANTI-SLAVERY LAWSTO THE ANTI-SLAVERY LAWS
![Page 107: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
IT IS, HOWEVER, POSSIBLE TO IT IS, HOWEVER, POSSIBLE TO PATENTPATENT
• EMBRYOSEMBRYOS
• FETUSESFETUSES
• ORGANSORGANS
• TISSUESTISSUES
• CELLULAR LINESCELLULAR LINES
• GENESGENES
![Page 108: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
WE WILL NOW LISTWE WILL NOW LIST
• TRENDSTRENDS
• IMAGESIMAGES
• ACTIONSACTIONS
![Page 109: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
THAT WE SEETHAT WE SEE
IMPACTING THE REALM OF IMPACTING THE REALM OF BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE
COMING TEN YEARSCOMING TEN YEARS
![Page 110: SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e265503460f94b164e7/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
SOME SUGGESTIONSSOME SUGGESTIONS
• WE WILL DEVELOP A HUMAN SUB-SPECIESWE WILL DEVELOP A HUMAN SUB-SPECIES
• SPECIES HYBRIDIZATION WILL LEAD TO SPECIES HYBRIDIZATION WILL LEAD TO NEW FOOD SOURCESNEW FOOD SOURCES
• AMORTALITYAMORTALITY
• CHOICE OF CHILD’S SEXCHOICE OF CHILD’S SEX
• WE WILL BE ABLE TO HYBERNATE AND WE WILL BE ABLE TO HYBERNATE AND THUS TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES IN SPACETHUS TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES IN SPACE