Scenario DevelopmentThe Steps

Identifying Driving Forces

Purpose:Purpose: To identify the key trends and dynamics that will

determine the course of the future.

Steps:Steps:

1. Identify the drivers, in the context of the scenario themes. Consider key historical events, trends and underlying causes.

2. For each driver, describe briefly the range of possible ways it could evolve in the future.

Driving Forces

Economy

Demography

Technology

GovernanceEnvironment &Climate Change

Society, Culture& Tradition

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (1)• Economy

– Sector based production( Agricultural Production, Mining, tourism, fisheries etc)

– Infrastructure development

– GDP

– Globalization

– Markets and prices

– Growth rate

– Economic dev goals (Poverty reduction, Privatization)

– International Cooperation

– Foreign investors

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (2)• Demography (Population)

– Population growth– Population density– Population Distribution – Rate of urbanization– Fertility rate– Population structure (Age,

Gender)– Migration patterns– Life expectancy

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (3)• Culture and Tradition

– Beliefs – forest protection – Traditional ceremonies and

practices– Traditional dances – use of natural

resources– Tribal heritage – Customary land tenure– Extraction of Medicinal plants – Religion– Free ranging

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (4)• Technology

– IKS– ICT– CDM– Green economy– Agrochemicals, agroforestry– Land mngt technologies– Use of machinery – Construction industry tech

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (5)• Environment and Climate Change

– Land degradation (erosion, deforestation, salinisation)

– Pollution (chemical waste, water air, sound pollution, loud noise)

– Climate change– Desertification– Extreme environ hazards (floods,

drought)

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (6)• Social Change

– Education (adult, formal, informal, non formal)

– Consumption patterns– Brain drain, brain gain– Improvement in health systems– Refugees

Drivers of Malawi Environmental Change (7)• Governance

– Regional treaties and conventions

– Multilateral env agreements– Decentralization– Political will– Democratization process– Economic policies– Public awareness , local

participation in env mngt

Scenario Framework• The framework for MEAO scenario

development has been tailored to AEO and IEA in three ways:

1. It is explicitly policy-relevant;

2. It is intended to be comprehensive enough to allow a broad range of issues that arise in sustainability analyses; and

3. It is presented as a participatory, stakeholder-driven process.

Select Critical Uncertainties

Purpose:Purpose: To select critical uncertainties, and use these to define the scenario framework.

Output:Output: Two (or three) critical uncertainties, selected from among the drivers developed in Step 5.

A critical uncertainty is a driver that is especially important in determining how the future evolves, but whose future

development is highly unpredictable.

Selecting Critical UncertaintiesFor each driving force:

1. Consider the degree of uncertaintydegree of uncertainty. Is there a great deal of uncertainty, or relatively little?

2. Consider the relative impact/importancerelative impact/importance of this driving force into the future.

3.3. Plot the driving forcePlot the driving force on the chart of impact/importance versus uncertainty.

4. Identify the two or three driving forcestwo or three driving forces that are highest impact and highest

uncertainty.

Which Driving Forces are Critical Uncertainties

Uncertainty

Imp

ort

ance

Social Change

Economy

Plot the Scenario Axes - Framework

“Scenario A”“Scenario B”

“Scenario C” “Scenario D”

Critical Uncertainty #2

Cri

tica

l U

nce

rtai

nty

#1

Example 2: Malawi’s scenario

MA: From Present to Future

Illustration: Qualitative Trends in Drivers

GROUP WORK 2Qualitative Trends of Key Drivers

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Demography

Economy

Environment

Technology

Culture and Tradition

Society

Governance

Elaborating the Scenarios (1)For each scenario, consider 5

areas:

1. Current state: Aspects of today’s world that represent characteristics of the scenario being developed.

2. End picture: The end vision of the scenario, assuming that critical uncertainties have been resolved.

3. Timeline: Connect the current state to the end picture through a plausible historical route

Elaborate the Scenarios (2)

4. Create a coherent narrative using current state, end picture and timeline. Add detail and texture.

5. Create a name for each scenario that captures the essence of the scenario and differentiates it clearly from others.

Elaborating ScenarioBoundaries•Spatial•Temporal

Boundaries•Spatial•Temporal

Story of the Present•Historic context•Important features•Actors and events•Major issues of concern

Story of the Present•Historic context•Important features•Actors and events•Major issues of concern

Driving Forces•Trends and processes at play

Driving Forces•Trends and processes at play

Important themes•Important elements of the story

Important themes•Important elements of the story

Critical Uncertainties•Resolution affects future course

Critical Uncertainties•Resolution affects future course

StakeholdersStakeholders

Narrative•Coherent visionQuantification•Technical rigor

Narrative•Coherent visionQuantification•Technical rigor

Elaboration Approaches: Forecast & Backcasting

?

?

Forecasting Where is society going?

Backcasting Where do we want to go? How do we get there?

Where do we want not to go? How do we avoid getting there?

GROUP WORK 3: Elaborating Scenarios

Form Four Groups Representing the chapter Working groups

1.Elaborate on each Scenario responding to the instructions supplied2.Present the highlights of your elaborate scenario storylines

Undertaking Quantitative Analysis

Purpose:Purpose: To enhance and elaborate the scenario narrative with quantitative information.

Output:Output: Specific, scientifically defensible quantitative information.

Quantification in Scenario BuildingAim: Aim:

To numerically express inputs, science-based relationships, assumptions, and results.

Quantitative analysis should use tools that:

• Can be applied and compared across widely differing scenarios. They should not artificially constrain your scenarios.

• Are as simple, transparent, and user-friendly as possible. Can yield clear, useful results.

Example: Change in Total Population

Example: Absolute GDP Per capita

Example: Area of Bio-energy Crops

Exploring Policies

Purpose:Purpose: To explore the feasibility, appropriateness, effectiveness, and robustness of various policies.

Key Points: Key Points: • Policies may be introduced at an

early stage and may represent an uncertainty defining a scenario,

• Policies may be introduced as part of implementing a scenario.

• Policies should be analysed, including assessment against goals and targets.