Post on 17-Dec-2015
SACN PT SustainabilityGAUTRAIN
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SACN Seminar on sustainable PT
SUSTAINABLE MEGA PUBLIC TRANSPORT
PROJECTS
Rapid rail project
in Gauteng
Romano Del Mistro
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Background
• Downside– The “Apartheid” train?
• Versus Soweto line?
– Passengers and mode– Long distance travel
• Upside– Civil engineering – Communication– Political will– The improved image of PT– The capacity– The project
• In a 100 years time?• What would we have done without the Gautrain?• What will the Gautrain be doing without energy?
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Background: Presentation
• The Gautrain project• Sustainability
– Comparison of alternatives – Improving sustainability
• The real issue
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The Gautrain project: Route• Pretoria – Johannesburg
– 62 km– 7 stations– 45 000 one way daily
passengers (??) (120 000 passengers per day by 2010 )
– 11 km of tunnel – 7,5 km of bridges – R7 billion at 2001 values. – 160 km/hr (40min Pta- Jhb)
• Marlboro – Oliver Tambo International Airport
– 13 km– 3 stations
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The Gautrain project: Socio economics: GGP and Jobs• GGP
– An increase of between 0,4% and 0,5% in the GGP.
– Operation and maintenance expenditure of R325 million per year
– R4 billion (60% of budget) to be spent on infrastructure (2002)
• Jobs– 43 000 jobs being created
during the construction phase
• To date … ……more than 6 700 local direct jobs and an estimated total of more than 36 200 direct, indirect and induced jobs.
– 40 000 jobs could be created as a result of the economic activity related to the Gautrain
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The Gautrain project: Socio economics: Jobs and training
• Ekurhuleni plant to build Gautrain carriages
29 July 2008 • Gautrain's 81 carriages will
be assembled UCW plant in Nigel
• Investing about R15 million in their Nigel assembly plant
• More than R5 million of that in training,"
• Plant would employ 85 people, 17 of whom are currently in Derby
Gpg.gov.za
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The Gautrain project: Feeder services
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Sustainability
• Comparison• Generic and Gautrain
– Total cost– Capital cost– Ongoing costs– Job creation– Energy
• Improving sustainability– Passenger volume– Creating more jobs– Energy
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Sustainability:Gautrain specific
• Gautrain– Feeder
10km– Distributor
5km
• “Direct”– Direct 40
+ 2km
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Sustainability: Gautrain specificPeak hour boardings and alightings
• For feeders and distributors to Gautrain
Walk Car Bus Rail Total Walk Bus Rail TotalHatfield 172 2829 33 1364 4398 18 0 199 217Pretoria 136 732 47 0 914 132 2 39 173
Centurion 225 2987 1387 0 4599 264 72 336Midrand 23 36 3 0 62 1386 72 1458Sandton 35 573 116 0 724 596 671 1267
Rosebank 84 220 0 0 304 3251 3251Johannesburg 91 124 70 34 319 3219 503 158 3880Rhodesfield 114 482 0 55 651 304 13 317
JIA 29 0 0 0 29 304 796 1100Total 909 7983 1654 1453 12000 9474 2116 409 11999
Boardings AlightingsPeak hour trips
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Sustainability: Gautrain specificPeak OD matrix
• For direct services of alternatives
Daily trips H'field P'ta Cent'n M'rand S'ton R'bank Jo'burgHatfield 0 500 2000 4000 4000 8000 8000Pretoria 0 0 0 1000 1000 2000 2000
Centurion 1000 500 0 4000 4000 8000 8000Midrand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sandton 0 0 0 500 0 2000 2000
Rosebank 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000Johannesburg 0 0 0 0 0 500 0
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Sustainability: Gautrain specificCapital cost
• Ever increasing costs of mega projects
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Rb
illio
n
cpi
actual
• Capital cost / trip– R30 000 000 000
@ 12% for 20 years = R4 billion/yr
– For 100 000 pax/day over 300 days/yr
= R133,88/trip44 trips =
R5891/month– @ 8% for 200 000/day
= R51.93/trip (R2240/month)
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Total capital cost (Rm)
Annulised capital cost
(Rm)
Annual operating cost (Rm)
Total annual cost (Rm)
Energy / yr (Mjoules *10^6)
Gautrain 23294 3290 879 4170 651Direct 1968 318 995 1313 686
Gautrain 776.45 109.67 29.31 138.98 21.72Direct 65.60 10.59 33.18 43.77 22.88
FOR SERVICE
PER PASSENGER
Sustainability: Gautrain specificCapital cost
• Gautrain much more costly
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Sustainability: Generic line haulTotal cost / passenger
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
One-way passengers/day
Co
st/p
asse
ng
er (
R)
Recap Minibus
Quality Bus
Gautrain
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Sustainability: Generic line haulTotal cost / passenger – excluding way capital
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
One-way passengers/day
Co
st/p
asse
ng
er (
R)
Recap Minibus
Quality Bus
Gautrain
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Total capital cost (Rm)
Annulised capital cost
(Rm)
Annual operating cost (Rm)
Total annual cost (Rm)
Energy / yr (Mjoules *10^6)
Gautrain 23294 3290 879 4170 651Direct 1968 318 995 1313 686
Gautrain 776.45 109.67 29.31 138.98 21.72Direct 65.60 10.59 33.18 43.77 22.88
FOR SERVICE
PER PASSENGER
Sustainability: Gautrain specificTotal annual cost
• Gautrain system is 3 times more costly
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Sustainability: Generic line haul“Operating” cost / passenger
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
One-way passengers/day
Co
st/p
asse
ng
er (
R)
Recap Minibus
Quality Bus
Gautrain
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Total capital cost (Rm)
Annulised capital cost
(Rm)
Annual operating cost (Rm)
Total annual cost (Rm)
Energy / yr (Mjoules *10^6)
Gautrain 23294 3290 879 4170 651Direct 1968 318 995 1313 686
Gautrain 776.45 109.67 29.31 138.98 21.72Direct 65.60 10.59 33.18 43.77 22.88
FOR SERVICE
PER PASSENGER
Sustainability: Gautrain specific“Operating” cost
• Gautrain system 13% less costly
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Sustainability: Generic line haulEnergy consumption / passenger
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
One-way passengers/day
En
erg
y/p
asse
ng
er (
MJ/
pas
s)
Recap Minibus
Quality Bus
Gautrain
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Total capital cost (Rm)
Annulised capital cost
(Rm)
Annual operating cost (Rm)
Total annual cost (Rm)
Energy / yr (Mjoules *10^6)
Gautrain 23294 3290 879 4170 651Direct 1968 318 995 1313 686
Gautrain 776.45 109.67 29.31 138.98 21.72Direct 65.60 10.59 33.18 43.77 22.88
FOR SERVICE
PER PASSENGER
Sustainability: Gautrain specificEnergy consumption
• Gautrain system uses 5% less energy
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Improving Sustainability:Passenger volumes
– More congestion– Petrol price– Land use policy– Shorten trips
• More passengers; less vehicles
• Increase passengers
50000 100000 150000 200000Total 120.88 118.54 90.24 97.31
Way Cap excl. 38.48 36.00 35.93 35.94"Operating" 14.03 13.21 12.89 12.94
R / passengerDaily one-way passengers
– Gauteng road network– R55 billion?
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Improving Sustainability:Creating more jobs- Feeder services
• Proposed fleet– 210 minibuses
= + 672 jobs @3.2/veh)
• Proposed fleet– 97 35-seater buses; – 21 55-seater buses; – 7 articulated buses.
– 125 buses in total
= + 400 jobs @ 3.2/veh)
One-way pax/hr
RoutesOne-way
pax / route / hr
Nominal pax /
route / hr
One-way pax / day
Vehicle fleet
Hatfield 33 3 11 50 250 12Pretoria 47 5 9 50 250 20
Centurion 1387 7 198 250 1250 91Midrand 72 3 24 50 250 12Sandton 671 3 224 250 1250 39
Rosebank 0 0 0 0 0 0Johannesburg 503 6 84 100 500 36
Total 210
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Improving Sustainability:Energy Future
• Affordable energy?– ½ of peak supply?– Oil future: 2025
– Uranium future: 2070
– Coal future: 2100
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Improving Sustainability:Reducing travel
• What is the saving in cost from reducing travel?
• What is the benefit that is lost:– To the individual?– To the employer?– To the country?
• Restructuring land use– Inducing the private sector
Access to choice
“Ben
efit”
Access to choice
Cos
t
Preparing to be competitive when energy costs are very high ?
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Conclusions: The Gautrain project
• Fait accompli– A civil engineering feat– Public transport image – Political will– Environmental benefits– Competitive after sunk
costs – Best use of R30 billion?– Opportunity costs
• Improve sustainability– Increase passengers
• Reduce cost
• Reduce trip length??
• Effect of fuel price
• More freeways?
– Create more jobs• Recap minibuses as
feeders
– Restructure land use• Induce private sector
But we must also prepare for very high energy costs!