Is the Gautrain the solution ? Romano Del Mistro
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1TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Is the Gautrain the solution?
Romano Del MistroTRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
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2TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Six objectives
• To promote economic growth, job creation and SMMEs
• To relieve congestion• To demonstrate
government’s commitment to public transport
• To restructure the apartheid city
• To give expression to an integrated transport plan
• To improve environmental conditions
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3TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Public debate…
• Good public participation programme, became focussed on NIMBY
• Alternative modes were not debated sufficiently
• The best alternative needs to be shown to be the best
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4TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Inadequate debate leads to …
• Incorrect public perception of professional competence– Loss of public credibility
in and support for future initiatives aimed at sustainable transport
• Waste of resources
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5TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Contents
• Looking for an alternative
• Some details
• A question of scale
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6TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Public transport alternatives
• Not limited to current experience
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7TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
This is also a bus service
• Seoul• Forty
kilometres of dedicated median lanes on major trunk lines
ITDP, June2005; Seoul
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8TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
This is also a bus service
• Jakarta• 6,000 pass/h
per direction.
• Articulated buses can boost capacity to 9,600
ITDP, January2005; Jakartal
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9TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
This is also a bus service
• Mexico City – 250 000 daily
passengers
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10TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
This is also a bus service
• Bogota• By 2015, TransMilenio: • 5 million pass / day • 388 km of busways
• 37 km of trunk lines• 57 stations• 28 pedestrian
overpasses• 4 terminals of
integration• Control centre• Total cost
US$ 198.8 million
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11TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
This is also a bus service
• Curitiba
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12TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
This is also a bus service
• Eindhoven– Phileas
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13TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Choosing an alternative
• Capacity• Cost per passenger• Capital cost• Speed• Appropriate
technology
• Safety• Comfort• Convenience• Image
– National Pride– To attract car user– To promote public
transport
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14TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction)
• Maximum link volume – 7400 (2000)– 13800 (2016)
Ex Brocklebank et al (2001)
– Estimated at:– 5000 (2005)– 5400 (2010)
Ex Corporate.gautrain.co.za
• Minibuses 5400 / 15 seats =
367 trips
• Buses
5400 / 50 seats=
110 trips
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15TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction)
Lloyd Wright, 2003
I will come back to passenger estimate
Line TypeActual capacity
(pass/ hour/ direction)
Sao Paulo 9 de julho Busway 35,000
Bogota TransMilenio Busway 33,000Porto Alegre l Busway 28,000
Curitiba Eixo Sul Busway 15,100Bangkok BTS Rail metro 50,000Mexico Line B Rail metro 39,300
Strasbourg Light rail 18,000
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16TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Choosing …. Cost/passenger
Subsidy = Cost - fare
Additional subsidy =
(R51-R36) *5400/.11*250 = R184 million /year (R331m?)
Pk hr pass/direction 5500Quality BusL 24Quality BusH 36"Gautrain" 51
Total Cost/pass (R/pass)
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17TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Choosing…. Capital cost
HIGHER RISK WHEN INVESTING IN RAIL
Used this value; not R7, R8-, R12-, R20-, or R24- billion)
Capital cost (Rm)Quality BusL 1476
Quality BusH 3460
"Gautrain" 10304
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18TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Choosing…. Speed
• High speed rail– 62 km – 35 minutes, plus– 10 minutes to station– 5 minutes wait– 10 minutes to work
= 60 minutes
• Slower mode:– 62 km – 44 minutes, plus– 10 minutes to station– 5 minutes wait– 10 minutes to work
= 69 minutes
IS IT WORTH IT?
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19TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Some details… Estimating the trips
• Peak hour passengers/ direction
(1+1+1+1)*800 +(3+2)*2200 = 14200 cars• 1,3 pass/vehicle and 20% to Gautrain = 3692 pass/hr
High values require more explanation of modelling
?1 1 13 2 1
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20TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Some details…. Capital paid
• “Generally the capital costs are paid by government, therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”
• A political decision to pay for some of the capital costs.
• But we (passengers or citizens) pay for all the costs; either as fares or as taxes.
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21TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
A question of scale
• To ensure ridership – Densify corridor wrt
housing and employment?
– Delay new freeway construction?
• Buses can carry over 20 000 peak hour pass/direction
• Creates a precedent for longer travel distances.– Average = 20 km
Website
– Average = 35 kmBrocklebank et al (2001 )
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22TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
A question of scale
• What if only 2200 peak hour pass/direction?– (114-56) *2200 /.11*250
= R290 million/year (or R430million/year)– R 321 million/year subsidy for 16000 peak hour bus
passengers / direction in Greater Johannesburg.
• What percentage risk in a Public Private Partnership is fair to government? – R18b / R20b?; R10b/ R20b?; R5b/R20b?
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23TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
A question of equity
• .
• R12 billion plus on the relatively more affluent.
• What is being spent on the deteriorating rail network?
•
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24TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
A question of objectives
• Define objectives– National pride– Reviving inner city
property values – Greater development
plans?– Region must have its
train!– Degree of mobility
Shanghai MagLev
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25TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
A question of open debate
• Test modelling assumptions in open debate– Alternatively, ask the private sector what it will
ask for it to take 100% of the risk.
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26TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
A question of alternatives
• Test transport alternatives– Rail high speed– Integrated Rail SA– At-grade bus
• Can always be upgraded
– Mixed grade bus
• Even revisit corridor development goals
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27TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Conclusion
• Public transport services that are– Safe, convenient,
reliable, accessible and affordable
• Must consider all alternatives to implement the best solution
Gauteng to follow up Car Free Day with indaba
Saturday October 22, 2005 09:16 - (SA)
Gauteng transport MEC Ignatius Jacobs will follow up Car Free Day with a commuter indaba as a step to champion commuter rights, his office announces ………………
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30TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Total cost/passenger (R/trip)
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1 0 0 . 0 01 1 0 . 0 01 2 0 . 0 01 3 0 . 0 01 4 0 . 0 01 5 0 . 0 0
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
O n e - w a y p a s s e n g e r s / d a y
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31TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005
Operating Cost/passenger (R/trip)
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O n e - w a y p a s s e n g e r s / d a y
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