SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 1 SACN Seminar on sustainable PT SUSTAINABLE MEGA PUBLIC TRANSPORT...

SACN PT SustainabilityGAUTRAIN

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SACN Seminar on sustainable PT

SUSTAINABLE MEGA PUBLIC TRANSPORT

PROJECTS

Rapid rail project

in Gauteng

Romano Del Mistro

http://www.uct.ac.za/main.php


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Background

• Downside– The “Apartheid” train?

• Versus Soweto line?

– Passengers and mode– Long distance travel

• Upside– Civil engineering – Communication– Political will– The improved image of PT– The capacity– The project

• In a 100 years time?• What would we have done without the Gautrain?• What will the Gautrain be doing without energy?



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Background: Presentation

• The Gautrain project• Sustainability

– Comparison of alternatives – Improving sustainability

• The real issue



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The Gautrain project: Route• Pretoria – Johannesburg

– 62 km– 7 stations– 45 000 one way daily

passengers (??) (120 000 passengers per day by 2010 )

– 11 km of tunnel – 7,5 km of bridges – R7 billion at 2001 values. – 160 km/hr (40min Pta- Jhb)

• Marlboro – Oliver Tambo International Airport

– 13 km– 3 stations



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The Gautrain project: Socio economics: GGP and Jobs• GGP

– An increase of between 0,4% and 0,5% in the GGP.

– Operation and maintenance expenditure of R325 million per year

– R4 billion (60% of budget) to be spent on infrastructure (2002)

• Jobs– 43 000 jobs being created

during the construction phase

• To date … ……more than 6 700 local direct jobs and an estimated total of more than 36 200 direct, indirect and induced jobs.

– 40 000 jobs could be created as a result of the economic activity related to the Gautrain



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The Gautrain project: Socio economics: Jobs and training

• Ekurhuleni plant to build Gautrain carriages

29 July 2008 • Gautrain's 81 carriages will

be assembled UCW plant in Nigel

• Investing about R15 million in their Nigel assembly plant

• More than R5 million of that in training,"

• Plant would employ 85 people, 17 of whom are currently in Derby

Gpg.gov.za



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The Gautrain project: Feeder services



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The Gautrain project: The project



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10




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Sustainability

• Comparison• Generic and Gautrain

– Total cost– Capital cost– Ongoing costs– Job creation– Energy

• Improving sustainability– Passenger volume– Creating more jobs– Energy



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Sustainability:Gautrain specific

• Gautrain– Feeder

10km– Distributor

5km

• “Direct”– Direct 40

+ 2km



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Sustainability: Gautrain specificPeak hour boardings and alightings

• For feeders and distributors to Gautrain

Walk Car Bus Rail Total Walk Bus Rail TotalHatfield 172 2829 33 1364 4398 18 0 199 217Pretoria 136 732 47 0 914 132 2 39 173

Centurion 225 2987 1387 0 4599 264 72 336Midrand 23 36 3 0 62 1386 72 1458Sandton 35 573 116 0 724 596 671 1267

Rosebank 84 220 0 0 304 3251 3251Johannesburg 91 124 70 34 319 3219 503 158 3880Rhodesfield 114 482 0 55 651 304 13 317

JIA 29 0 0 0 29 304 796 1100Total 909 7983 1654 1453 12000 9474 2116 409 11999

Boardings AlightingsPeak hour trips



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Sustainability: Gautrain specificPeak OD matrix

• For direct services of alternatives

Daily trips H'field P'ta Cent'n M'rand S'ton R'bank Jo'burgHatfield 0 500 2000 4000 4000 8000 8000Pretoria 0 0 0 1000 1000 2000 2000

Centurion 1000 500 0 4000 4000 8000 8000Midrand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sandton 0 0 0 500 0 2000 2000

Rosebank 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000Johannesburg 0 0 0 0 0 500 0



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Sustainability: Gautrain specificCapital cost

• Ever increasing costs of mega projects

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Rb

illio

n

cpi

actual

• Capital cost / trip– R30 000 000 000

@ 12% for 20 years = R4 billion/yr

– For 100 000 pax/day over 300 days/yr

= R133,88/trip44 trips =

R5891/month– @ 8% for 200 000/day

= R51.93/trip (R2240/month)



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Total capital cost (Rm)

Annulised capital cost

(Rm)

Annual operating cost (Rm)

Total annual cost (Rm)

Energy / yr (Mjoules *10^6)

Gautrain 23294 3290 879 4170 651Direct 1968 318 995 1313 686

Gautrain 776.45 109.67 29.31 138.98 21.72Direct 65.60 10.59 33.18 43.77 22.88

FOR SERVICE

PER PASSENGER

Sustainability: Gautrain specificCapital cost

• Gautrain much more costly



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Sustainability: Generic line haulTotal cost / passenger

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

One-way passengers/day

Co

st/p

asse

ng

er (

R)

Recap Minibus

Quality Bus

Gautrain



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Sustainability: Generic line haulTotal cost / passenger – excluding way capital

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

100 1000 10000 100000 1000000


Co

st/p

asse

ng

er (

R)

Recap Minibus

Quality Bus

Gautrain



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(Rm)




Gautrain 23294 3290 879 4170 651Direct 1968 318 995 1313 686

Gautrain 776.45 109.67 29.31 138.98 21.72Direct 65.60 10.59 33.18 43.77 22.88

FOR SERVICE

PER PASSENGER

Sustainability: Gautrain specificTotal annual cost

• Gautrain system is 3 times more costly



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Sustainability: Generic line haul“Operating” cost / passenger

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

100 1000 10000 100000 1000000


Co

st/p

asse

ng

er (

R)

Recap Minibus

Quality Bus

Gautrain



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(Rm)




Gautrain 23294 3290 879 4170 651Direct 1968 318 995 1313 686

Gautrain 776.45 109.67 29.31 138.98 21.72Direct 65.60 10.59 33.18 43.77 22.88

FOR SERVICE

PER PASSENGER

Sustainability: Gautrain specific“Operating” cost

• Gautrain system 13% less costly



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Sustainability: Generic line haulEnergy consumption / passenger

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

100 1000 10000 100000 1000000


En

erg

y/p

asse

ng

er (

MJ/

pas

s)

Recap Minibus

Quality Bus

Gautrain



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(Rm)




Gautrain 23294 3290 879 4170 651Direct 1968 318 995 1313 686

Gautrain 776.45 109.67 29.31 138.98 21.72Direct 65.60 10.59 33.18 43.77 22.88

FOR SERVICE

PER PASSENGER

Sustainability: Gautrain specificEnergy consumption

• Gautrain system uses 5% less energy



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Improving Sustainability:Passenger volumes

– More congestion– Petrol price– Land use policy– Shorten trips

• More passengers; less vehicles

• Increase passengers

50000 100000 150000 200000Total 120.88 118.54 90.24 97.31

Way Cap excl. 38.48 36.00 35.93 35.94"Operating" 14.03 13.21 12.89 12.94

R / passengerDaily one-way passengers

– Gauteng road network– R55 billion?



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Improving Sustainability:Creating more jobs- Feeder services

• Proposed fleet– 210 minibuses

= + 672 jobs @3.2/veh)

• Proposed fleet– 97 35-seater buses; – 21 55-seater buses; – 7 articulated buses.

– 125 buses in total

= + 400 jobs @ 3.2/veh)

One-way pax/hr

RoutesOne-way

pax / route / hr

Nominal pax /

route / hr

One-way pax / day

Vehicle fleet

Hatfield 33 3 11 50 250 12Pretoria 47 5 9 50 250 20

Centurion 1387 7 198 250 1250 91Midrand 72 3 24 50 250 12Sandton 671 3 224 250 1250 39

Rosebank 0 0 0 0 0 0Johannesburg 503 6 84 100 500 36

Total 210



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Improving Sustainability:Energy Future

• Affordable energy?– ½ of peak supply?– Oil future: 2025

– Uranium future: 2070

– Coal future: 2100



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Improving Sustainability:Reducing travel

• What is the saving in cost from reducing travel?

• What is the benefit that is lost:– To the individual?– To the employer?– To the country?

• Restructuring land use– Inducing the private sector

Access to choice

“Ben

efit”

Access to choice

Cos

t

Preparing to be competitive when energy costs are very high ?



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Conclusions: The Gautrain project

• Fait accompli– A civil engineering feat– Public transport image – Political will– Environmental benefits– Competitive after sunk

costs – Best use of R30 billion?– Opportunity costs

• Improve sustainability– Increase passengers

• Reduce cost

• Reduce trip length??

• Effect of fuel price

• More freeways?

– Create more jobs• Recap minibuses as

feeders

– Restructure land use• Induce private sector

But we must also prepare for very high energy costs!


SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 1 SACN Seminar on sustainable PT SUSTAINABLE MEGA PUBLIC TRANSPORT...

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Transcript of SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 1 SACN Seminar on sustainable PT SUSTAINABLE MEGA PUBLIC TRANSPORT...