Resources and Options for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change

Maria Janowiak, mjanowiak@fs.fed.usNorthern Institute of Applied Climate ScienceUS Forest Service

Desired Future

TIME

Climate-Driven Changes

Desired Future

TIME

Climate ChangeTrajectory

?

Climate-Driven Changes

Desired Future

TIME

Climate ChangeTrajectory

?

Climate-Driven Changes

Increasing resources needed to maintain current direction

AdaptationAdaptation is the adjustment of systems in response to climate change.

Adaptation activities can build on and compliment

existing sustainable management and

conservation actions

Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010

What actions can be taken toenhance the ability of a system to

cope with change and

meet goals and objectives?

If you want a single “answer” for how to respond to climate change, it’s:

“It depends”

It depends on where you are working and what you’re trying to achieve.

Adaptation Workbook Process

Adaptation Workbook Process

Adaptation Workbook Process

Resource: Climate Change Assessments

Adaptation Workbook Process

Resource: Climate Change Assessments

Resource: Adaptation Strategies & Approaches

Provides a menu to help producers translate broad concepts to specific, implementable tactics

Shows your rationale for deciding on a specific action

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

CONCEPT

ACTION

STRATEGIES

APROACHES

TACTICS

ACTION

How the menu is created:1. Review literature (30+)

2. Collect adaptation actions of all types (~150)

3. Organize by system, similarity, and scale

4. Create description5. Review and repeat!

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Literature review to identify

adaptation actions

Organize adaptation actions into

“menu”

Option

Strategy

Approach

Tactic

CONCEPT

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Desired Future

TIME

Climate ChangeTrajectory

?

Persistence or change?

Desired Future

TIME

Climate ChangeTrajectory

?

Persistence or change?

Option

Strategy

Approach

Tactic

CONCEPT

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Manage for Persistence:Still be recognizable as being the same system

Manage for Change:System fundamentally becomes something different

When you might emphasize…Persistence (Same/Similar)

High economic or social value associated with current condition Inherent ability to buffer

changes Highly vulnerable, but

place represents best chance of success

Change (Future-adapted)

High likelihood that current conditions will fail, making change is necessary Changes are already

occurring, and can be enhanced Good opportunity to try

something new

Option

Strategy

Approach

Tactic

CONCEPT

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Broad adaptation responses Sustain fundamental

functions of soil and water. Reduce risks from warmer

and drier conditions. Reduce the risk and long-

term impacts of extreme weather. Alter management to

accommodate expected future conditions.

Option

Strategy

Approach

Tactic

CONCEPT

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

More specific actions Diversify varieties, crops,

breeds, or products. Establish or encourage new

combinations of varieties or breeds. Switch to commodities

expected to be better suited to future conditions.

Option

Strategy

Approach

Tactic

CONCEPT

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Prescriptive actions selected by producer that are designed for individual site conditions and management objectives

FEW (3)

MANY (∞)

Option

Strategy

Approach

Tactic

CONCEPT

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Manage for persistence

Reduce the risk and long-term impacts of extreme weather.

Reduce peak flows, runoff, and water erosion.

Install perennial filter strips at edges of vulnerable fields

CONCEPT

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Manage for change

Alter agricultural systems or lands to new climate conditions.

Realign severely altered systems toward future conditions.

Shift from field cropping to perennial forage on drier, lower productivity fields

CONCEPT

ACTION

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Summary: There isn’t a single answer

Each decision is unique and will vary based upon: Place: Location & Site Conditions

Purpose: Goals & Objectives

People: Values, Culture, & Resources

Adaptation resources help producers/managers make decisions (without telling them what do do)