Resources and Options for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change
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Resources and Options for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change Maria Janowiak, [email protected] Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science US Forest Service
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Transcript of Resources and Options for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change
Resources and Options for Adapting to Climate Variability and Change
Maria Janowiak, [email protected] Institute of Applied Climate ScienceUS Forest Service
Desired Future
TIME
Climate-Driven Changes
Desired Future
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
Climate-Driven Changes
Desired Future
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
Climate-Driven Changes
Increasing resources needed to maintain current direction
AdaptationAdaptation is the adjustment of systems in response to climate change.
Adaptation activities can build on and compliment
existing sustainable management and
conservation actions
Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010
What actions can be taken toenhance the ability of a system to
cope with change and
meet goals and objectives?
If you want a single “answer” for how to respond to climate change, it’s:
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working and what you’re trying to achieve.
Adaptation Workbook Process
Adaptation Workbook Process
Adaptation Workbook Process
Resource: Climate Change Assessments
Adaptation Workbook Process
Resource: Climate Change Assessments
Resource: Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
Provides a menu to help producers translate broad concepts to specific, implementable tactics
Shows your rationale for deciding on a specific action
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
ACTION
How the menu is created:1. Review literature (30+)
2. Collect adaptation actions of all types (~150)
3. Organize by system, similarity, and scale
4. Create description5. Review and repeat!
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Literature review to identify
adaptation actions
Organize adaptation actions into
“menu”
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Desired Future
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
Persistence or change?
Desired Future
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
Persistence or change?
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Manage for Persistence:Still be recognizable as being the same system
Manage for Change:System fundamentally becomes something different
When you might emphasize…Persistence (Same/Similar)
High economic or social value associated with current condition Inherent ability to buffer
changes Highly vulnerable, but
place represents best chance of success
Change (Future-adapted)
High likelihood that current conditions will fail, making change is necessary Changes are already
occurring, and can be enhanced Good opportunity to try
something new
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Broad adaptation responses Sustain fundamental
functions of soil and water. Reduce risks from warmer
and drier conditions. Reduce the risk and long-
term impacts of extreme weather. Alter management to
accommodate expected future conditions.
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
More specific actions Diversify varieties, crops,
breeds, or products. Establish or encourage new
combinations of varieties or breeds. Switch to commodities
expected to be better suited to future conditions.
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Prescriptive actions selected by producer that are designed for individual site conditions and management objectives
FEW (3)
MANY (∞)
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Manage for persistence
Reduce the risk and long-term impacts of extreme weather.
Reduce peak flows, runoff, and water erosion.
Install perennial filter strips at edges of vulnerable fields
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Manage for change
Alter agricultural systems or lands to new climate conditions.
Realign severely altered systems toward future conditions.
Shift from field cropping to perennial forage on drier, lower productivity fields
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Summary: There isn’t a single answer
Each decision is unique and will vary based upon: Place: Location & Site Conditions
Purpose: Goals & Objectives
People: Values, Culture, & Resources
Adaptation resources help producers/managers make decisions (without telling them what do do)
